By Steve Goddard
Arctic Ice (red line above) has dropped just below my June forecast (dashed line.) Over the last two weeks, strong southerly winds reminiscent of 2007 have compacted and melted significant amounts of ice. The modified NSIDC image below shows ice loss over the last week, in red.
The break in the weather can be easily seen in the DMI temperature graph, as a sharp upwards spike two weeks ago.
The NCEP forecast calls for colder and calmer weather during the next two weeks, so ice loss should drop off quickly.
The DMI 30% concentration graph has already flattened, and is running even with 2009.
The modified NSIDC image below shows ice gain over 2007 in green, and loss in red.
PIOMAS continues to overestimate (red) ice loss by a substantial margin. Green shows areas where they underestimated ice loss.
It continues to look like my June forecast will be close to correct, though as we have seen – this contest is a crap shoot. It all depends on the wind.
Julienne Strove from NSIDC asked last week what it would take to be convinced of man’s influence. I will respond with a question of my own. What does it take to prove that changes in the wind are driven by changes in CO2?
Extra bonus : Does anyone see a familiar pattern (below) in Greenland temperatures? What year did satellites monitoring the Arctic come on line?
Enquiring minds want to know.
stevengoddard says:
August 30, 2010 at 9:04 am
baffled
What do you think water temperatures are under the ice in the central Arctic?
—
Warm enough for it not to be ice.
CRS, Dr.P.H. says:
August 29, 2010 at 7:53 pm
…how about some honest, rigorous scientific investigation based upon sound, repeatable methodology, exhaustive statistical analysis, independent replication, honest peer review and widespread availability of codes and data?
Not much to ask for….
And add let’s stop using 1979 to 2007 data to the exclusion of all other time periods to make conclusions about what’s happening in climate.
Dear Steve/Anthony/others,
I have not really followed the sea ice updates but I am confused about how it is that skeptics print these updates that appear to show hardly any change in sea ice extents whereas others (e.g. http://www.climatecodered.net/, then click on ‘Arctic challenge’) show huge, alarming changes in sea ice extent.
Does anyone know of a good introduction to help a beginner on this subject understand what is going on?
Best,
Alex
stevengoddard says:
“What do you think water temperatures are under the ice in the central Arctic?”
o! pick me, pick me!
Been there, measured that.
With a thermometer I calibrated myself even.
And 0 C is a bit warmer
Seawater freezes at 28 F up there.
5.1 looks good for this years minimum.
How’s that recovery going?
Jeff P says:
August 30, 2010 at 6:45 am
This puts 2010 in the top five lowest sea ice extents in the JAXA record and it’s still August.
I’ll assume your post wasn’t humor. So what was the point? The JAXA record is very short.
What is your view of how bad PIOMAS predictions are? So far Steven Goddard isn’t that far off. PIOMAS is awful. Do you agree? Will you make a long comment about how awful PIOMAS is, even longer than the one you made about Steven Goddard? You wouldn’t be biased and not, would you?
On the steep downward leg, in the big picture, already. Sunset at the pole in 3 weeks, dusk at lower latitudes and sunset not long after that.
bob
Ice volume has increased year over year since 2008, and there will be a significant increase in the amount of multi-year ice in 2011. Those are the primary considerations in a recovery. Ask NSIDC if you don’t believe me.
Alex Harvey says: August 30, 2010 at 6:43 pm
“Does anyone know of a good introduction to help a beginner on this subject understand what is going on?”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page
When in doubt go to the data sources and trust your own eyes and mind.
stevengoddard says:
August 30, 2010 at 5:34 pm
The behaviour of the ice in September will not be a statistics problem. It will be determined by the specifics of the weather.
That is true.
But we keep getting told by some that the statistics derived from data gathered from 1979 to 2007 determines what we will see happen in the ice. And not only for this year but anytime from 2015 to 2040 all Arctic Ice will be gone in the summertime. And we are told it is not a matter now of ‘if’ but ‘when’.
We don’t know for sure what weather will be 5 days from now, but we are told with 100% certainty the Arctic is soon going to have ice free summers….oh, wait, wait, unless we change our ways. They know that with 100% certainty too.
Nice to know man suddenly has evolved the ability to control weather.
Günther Kirschbaum,
Where is the image of?
Green Sand says: August 30, 2010 at 2:38 pm
“Doubling from what level to what level?”
For the range of CO2 concentrations in our present day atmosphere the starting level is not important.
kfg says: August 30, 2010 at 2:58 pm
“you are going to have a hard time “sobering” the people of England with tales of their climate becoming almost, but not quite, bearable to a tropical species.”
🙂 Yep, that’s a lost cause!
Preliminary (is the official name provisional?) JAXA number for 08/30 shows another very small increase in extent today…just 313 km^2. We’ll see how the updated number changes. If these increases are entirely due to divergence/spreading, we could be in for a world of hurt in the upcoming days. If they’re the combination of divergence and some refreezing, maybe not so much.
Current extent is now predicting 5.07e6 km^2. My other method (mentioned in the comments of last week’s Sea Ice News) is predicting 5.08e6 km^2 with a standard deviation of 92500 km^2. Just so you know, this increases the probability of beating 2009 to 3.36%, LOL.
-Scott
bob
My June forecast is almost exactly on target.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-40bmi9fGc]
Scott,
When making your forecasts, you should probably consider the Arctic weather.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html
stevengoddard says:
August 30, 2010 at 8:27 pm
Hi Steve, thanks for the advice. I know the weather is the key factor here these last two weeks, but I don’t have the expertise to use it in my calculations. Also, I consider the numbers I’m posting to just be updates on what the statistics say to those people here reading that don’t have the time/experience to workup the JAXA numbers themselves. I don’t consider them forecasts.
Maybe next year I’ll try putting together a multiparameter equation to do more than these very basic statistics.
-Scott
Scott,
If you look at 2006, extent dropped rapidly right before it flatlined. This year may be a repeat of that pattern. Given the triple point of water at 0C, the behaviour of the ice can change dramatically with a very small change in the weather.
What about the shortest melt season? Is that still in play?
Break out the popcorn?
JAXA
http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/552/zamsreseaiceextentl830c.jpg
DMi
http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/3859/zicecover2010810crop.jpg
I’m not saying this turn up means the melt season is over. But it reminds of global warming predictions of longer melts seasons in the Arctic.
Amino,
The melt season will almost certainly be the shortest on record, regardless of what happens during the next two weeks. Because the peak extent occurred almost a month later than normal.
Alex Harvey:
Graphs are pretty but only TOPAZ shows the two Main Satellites in comparison (AMSR-E & SSMI)
(ignore the top row & Topaz itself: – – it is a forecast) http://arctic-roos.org/forecasting-services/topaz/topaz-model-forecast
DATA is present at only a few Places (3).
>Extent is where Ice drops below 15% coverage, i.e, 85% open water (except DMI, which uses 30%), Always MORE than Area.
>>Area seems like it would be better — but is MUCH less predictable. And jumps UP a lot.
>>>VOLUME is low lately, so WUWT pretends it is fake — in fact ICESAT showed it will read MORE Ice than is really there, in a big melt: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php
DATA
Area: Nansen=Norsex http://www.nersc.no/main/index2.php (Bottom of page: but the “2008” and “2009”: should be 2010 & 2007)
Area: (JAXA, is AMSR-E) http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
Extent (JAXA, is Amsr-E) http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
… note that NSIDC uses a less accurate Algorithm in order to remain compatible with OLD Data – – but Norsex Charts may have updated their Old numbers as their 2007 minimum is 10% HIGHER than the Nansen number, yet IDENTICAL for 2010.
This implies ALL other graphs UNDERSTATE past years’s ice by about 10%.
JAXA Area, thus implies that 2007 will break 2007’s record TOMORROW, assuming another 143 K melt (it has average 70K over the last 6 days & at this rate WILL pass in under a week – – which tends to confirm the PIOMAS numbers.
… Except … As all these satellites are recievers of emitted radiation, they can & do confuse ICE and Water (especially the hotter water). AND NSIDC says the AMSR-E instruments are on the fritz & recording TOO MUCH ICE – – which is likely why the Norsex Charts show 2010 SOOOOOO close to the 2007 & 2008 Minima.
But am I certain about that ? No.
So look at Nansen’s and JAXA’a area the last few days:
08/24/2010 4585606.7 km2. + _9 K
08/25/2010 4441278.1 km2. -144 K
08/26/2010 4429732.4 km2. – 11.5 k
08/27/2010 4352233.7 km2 – 77.501 K
08/28/2010 4359146.5 km2. + _6,913
08/29/2010 4368270.3 km2. + _ 9,124
Nansen Minima 3.29 = 2007 (But NORSEX has 3.6 = 2007)
JAXA MINIMA = 2.919 = 2007 3.426 = 2009 3.004 = 2008
2010.6438 3.6573241 -112,204.3
2010.6466 3.6183364 – 38,987.7
2010.6493 3.6434665 + 25,1301
Aug.26th 3.5644226 – 79,043.9 (0.6521 of 365 days = 238th day)
2010.6548 3.4909644 – 73,458.2
2010.6576 3.3474884 -143,476
… Do you get the Picture? _ _ THEY DISAGREE – – a LOT.
Further: this year is WEIRD. The Ice volume was so low that 30-to-50 foot thick ice that has stuck to Greenland & nearby Islands for Decades, up & got sucked into the void. This I refer to as Ice CUBES (though actually the corners melt off)..
As the La Nina makes it COLD, every Night we get some Freezing, especially near these big blocks. Even though that is 1/2 inch thick ice that vanishes come daylight, the Numbers are 2-to-5 day averages & this affects them a LOT (Note: except near the Pole, which has no Night, now: 6 months Day & 6 months NIGHT. Sunset is 23 days off, I think)
Personally I take all save Piomas with a grain of salt – – at least THIS year, with the unusual reflections confusing the satellites SOOO much – – as ONLY Piomas “assimilates” (thus the “as” in its name) data from ship & shore people, who actually MEASURE the ice. Even then, the Center area around the Pole, is just a guess (that is where the 2007 Piomas error occurred, and, we are again seeing a LOT of low-concentration ice near the Pole).
Overall, however, I think the BIG CHUNCKS will melt so much slower than thinner pieces that the La Nina we have — and the next one — the 60-year Cycle is in its Cold phase since 2007, which implies 2 – – will add a LOT of Ice before the next El Nino threatens to wipe it out again (a 1960s book called the Physics of Ice insisted Ice’s time-to-melt varied as the SQUARE of thickness).
Predicting the Future: try EMMCF – – pick NHemi http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html
And Pips for Ice Drift/Displacement : http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/idis.html … “archive” means OLDER charts.
By the Way: Congrats to Steve – – he submitted a Sea Ice Outlook. 5.1 million Square km — unless he persuades Helen to let him change it in the next 48 hours or so. But 5.1 looks possible.
It takes Guts to hang it all out there in public.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
August 30, 2010 at 4:47 pm
Konrad says:
August 29, 2010 at 4:00 pm
the cruise ship Clipper Adventurer now grounded in the north west passage cannot be freed soon, it may be there for some time. Ice breakers are apparently on route to free passengers
I can’t believe this kind of thing happened again. So much for the claim “the Northwest Passage is open”.
________________________________________________________
Amino, it ran aground, it did not hit an iceberg 🙂
Andy
Is there a Global Multidecadel Oscillation? Or the same graph with a different name?
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
August 30, 2010 at 7:26 pm
I’ll assume your post wasn’t humor. So what was the point? The JAXA record is very short.
What is your view of how bad PIOMAS predictions are? So far Steven Goddard isn’t that far off. PIOMAS is awful. Do you agree? Will you make a long comment about how awful PIOMAS is, even longer than the one you made about Steven Goddard? You wouldn’t be biased and not, would you?
———————
1) I agree it is short, however I did not choose to use the JAXA data, Steve Goddard chose it. He was happy to use it while it supported his “theory of sea ice recovery” and you had no complaints.
2) Now that it is not supporting his theory you are complaining. And you casually accuse me of being biased?
3) In your other comments in the thread you complain about the 1979-2007 satellite data (much longer time period) as well. So what sea ice extent data are you suggesting people use?
4) As far as the PIPS vs. PIOMAS debate goes, my original post had nothing to do with those models, there have been lengthy threads on this issue and I have nothing new or interesting to add at this time. Mostly I’m looking forward to the Cryosat-2 data.
————————
My original post that Amino has issues with:
The final days of the 2010 melt season are here and the horse race is on.
2010 is the 9th year in the JAXA record. How will it place?
Today 2010 has the Goddard Minimum beat. Wow!!! I had no idea if Steve’s “Theory of Increasing Sea Ice” would be supported by the data or not when this all started but I am quite surprised that his theory was busted… in August!
Let’s look at the standing.
2003 Min.: 6,041,250: Busted 8/14/10
2004 Min.: 5,784,688: Busted 8/19/10
2006 Min.: 5,781,719: Busted 8/19/10
2002 Min: 5,646,875: Busted 8/22/10
Goddard Min: 5,500,000: Busted 8/26/10
2005 Min: 5,315,156: ????
This puts 2010 in the top five lowest sea ice extents in the JAXA record and it’s still August.
If the AGW climate models were as accurate as your ice forecast, there would be no debate on AGW. I would say at this point, the forecast is pretty accurate – just not exact. Which is how forecasts work.
Günther Kirschbaum says:
August 30, 2010 at 5:24 pm
“But 2010 is still in third place and with a bit of luck might go below 5 million square km. ”
So let me add this up Gunther. You think AGW is true, and that the Artic Ice is disappearing because of it. You also think this is a bad thing, but you are rooting / cheerleading for it to happen for the ability to say “I told you so” on a blog? Interesting logic, people may start to question your sanity.
Second straight day of gain on the 30th.