By Steve Goddard
Arctic Ice (red line above) has dropped just below my June forecast (dashed line.) Over the last two weeks, strong southerly winds reminiscent of 2007 have compacted and melted significant amounts of ice. The modified NSIDC image below shows ice loss over the last week, in red.
The break in the weather can be easily seen in the DMI temperature graph, as a sharp upwards spike two weeks ago.
The NCEP forecast calls for colder and calmer weather during the next two weeks, so ice loss should drop off quickly.
The DMI 30% concentration graph has already flattened, and is running even with 2009.
The modified NSIDC image below shows ice gain over 2007 in green, and loss in red.
PIOMAS continues to overestimate (red) ice loss by a substantial margin. Green shows areas where they underestimated ice loss.
It continues to look like my June forecast will be close to correct, though as we have seen – this contest is a crap shoot. It all depends on the wind.
Julienne Strove from NSIDC asked last week what it would take to be convinced of man’s influence. I will respond with a question of my own. What does it take to prove that changes in the wind are driven by changes in CO2?
Extra bonus : Does anyone see a familiar pattern (below) in Greenland temperatures? What year did satellites monitoring the Arctic come on line?
Enquiring minds want to know.
Jon P says:
August 31, 2010 at 1:46 pm
Jeff P says:
August 31, 2010 at 1:07 pm
“You’ve certainly changed your tune from earlier in the year when you were saying that your prediction of 5.5 million K^2 was too conservative and the minimum would be much higher.”
Steven discussed about conditions that could affect his prediction one way or another, all summer. He never changed his 5.5 number. The above is a lie. I said it without anger or any other emotion you may wish to project. Would you have “felt” better if I said it was not truthful? or not accurate?
——————-
Jon P,
Read what I said again.
Nowhere in my quote do I say that Steve changed his 5.5 number.
If that is the basis of you calling me a liar you have no case and owe me an apology.
I stand by what I wrote as true.
stevengoddard says:
August 31, 2010 at 3:20 pm
There you go changing your prediction again!
😉
stevengoddard says:
August 31, 2010 at 1:28 pm
Jeff P,
You proposed a theory that arctic sea ice is recovering and the test of that theory would be a minimum extent above 5.5 million K^2 in 2010.
I never said anything of the sort. I made an estimate of 5.5, the rest is a straw man fabricated up by you.
—————
Steve,
Are you denying that you said that arctic sea ice is in recovery or has recovered?
Jon P,
When you were imputing the position that government is the model of efficiency to me, you were erecting a straw man since I hadn’t said any such thing but at least I knew what you were talking about. Now with this reference to “team defense” I really have no idea what you’re talking about. Perhaps, instead of putting words in the mouths of others, you ought to use enough of them yourself to adequately explain your intended meaning.
stevengoddard says:
August 31, 2010 at 3:20 pm
The next three days will see a little decline, then back to flat.
We need to loose 20 to 30K, does that much look likely?
Steve,
You posted,
“Ice volume has increased year over year since 2008, and there will be a significant increase in the amount of multi-year ice in 2011. Those are the primary considerations in a recovery. Ask NSIDC if you don’t believe me.”
And I did, or rather found that question in their FAQ file, and here is their answer
“Even though the extent of Arctic sea ice has not returned to the record low of 2007, the data show that it is not recovering.”
that quote is from
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq.html#why_more
Jon P says:
August 31, 2010 at 1:46 pm
Jeff P says:
August 31, 2010 at 1:07 pm
“You’ve certainly changed your tune from earlier in the year when you were saying that your prediction of 5.5 million K^2 was too conservative and the minimum would be much higher.”
Steven discussed about conditions that could affect his prediction one way or another, all summer. He never changed his 5.5 number. The above is a lie.
I think not, see below:
stevegoddard in Sea Ice News #18:
My forecast (dashed line below) minimum of 5.5 million (JAXA) continues to look conservative. It all comes down to what the winds do over the next few weeks. If the winds keep compressing the ice, the minimum may go a little below 5.5. If the winds quiesce, the minimum may come in a little above 5.5 – which is looking like a pretty good number right now.
in Sea Ice News #17:
Conclusion : There will probably be minimal ice loss during August. The minimum is likely to be the highest since 2006, and possibly higher than 2005. So far, my forecast of 5.5 million km² is looking very conservative.
and in Arctic Forecast Verification Update
So how is it doing so far? The image below shows that my forecast has been too conservative. The actual JAXA path (red) is above my forecast (dashed.)
Jeff P says:
August 31, 2010 at 1:07 pm
“You’ve certainly changed your tune from earlier in the year when you were saying that your prediction of 5.5 million K^2 was too conservative and the minimum would be much higher.”
So the minimum will be “much higher” than what? Oh I know what you had written earlier in the sentence “your prediction of 5.5 million K^2”.
This means that you attibute to Steven him changing his prediction of his 5.5 minimum to something “:much higher” which he never did.
No apology forthcoming.
_____________________________________
Djon says:
August 31, 2010 at 3:38 pm
Jon P,
“When you were imputing the position that government is the model of efficiency to me, you were erecting a straw man since I hadn’t said any such thing but at least I knew what you were talking about.”
Oh jeez I’m sorry this statement from you must have confused me about your view of the government’s abilities. “Also, do you disbelieve in the efficacy of government solutions to all problems too large or complex to be addressed by individual action or is climate change somehow a special case?”
“Now with this reference to “team defense” I really have no idea what you’re talking about. Perhaps, instead of putting words in the mouths of others, you ought to use enough of them yourself to adequately explain your intended meaning.”
Perhaps next time you will let Gunther respond to my comment directed at him, instead of trying to be cute with words (where you admitted failure in said endeavor) and trying to convince me of what Gunther meant.
AJB,
I’m curious – what’s the significance of 20 to 30K more extent loss?
We need to loose 20 to 30K, does that much look likely?
Sorry, should read:
We need to loose 20 to 30K PER DAY, does that much look likely?
Phil.
What part of this statement (which you quoted) is beyond your comprehension?
I have been talking about the wind all summer. Do you have a problem with mortals thinking about and discussing various outcomes, or do you prefer deities like Hansen?
Djon says:
August 31, 2010 at 3:59 pm
If it bounces around on or above the line two long we’re more likely to see a latent dip in Sept as in 2005/6. We need it to stick around the mean for a little bit longer. After that it can run for the hills as fast as it likes! See: http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/1576/7day20100829.png
Steven,
You posted
“Given the triple point of water at 0C,”
Do you know what the triple point of water is?
It is not 0C, but you are fairly close, but what pressure?
bob
The ocean is at 1 bar atmospheric pressure. That is how it is defined.
We did learn a little about phase diagrams in my graduate school geochemistry program.
[snip]
bob,
Before you get the chance to embarrass yourself again, I’ll save you the trouble.
Ice floats on the surface of the ocean.
And on the subject of what SG did or didn’t predict, he invited readers to bookmark the page on which the following exchange appeared (June 2), so I did.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/02/the-undeath-spiral/
Steve Goddard:
“Conclusion : Should we expect a nice recovery this summer due to the thicker ice? You bet ya. Even if all the ice less than 2.5 metres thick melted this summer, we would still see a record high minimum in the DMI charts.”
Gneiss:
I’m impressed by how unequivocally and often WUWT has committed to the proposition that Arctic sea ice is recovering, in disagreement with most Arctic researchers. As you say, these will be pages to bookmark.
I think you should cut Steve some slack here.
The minimun this year is barely going to be lower than 2009 so he’s not far off.
The confounding factor was the recent El Nino. Normally such an El Nino would reduce the subsequent ice minimum more than this one has done so I’m satisfied that the recovery trend remains in place and should accelerate next year after the coming La Nina.
Gee Phil I read your post twice and failed to see where Steven changed his 5.5 prediction.. I know those words of “looks” “looks like” and “so far” have very precise meaning that apply to the end prediction…lol. Jeff P. lied, get over it.
Gneiss says:
August 31, 2010 at 4:53 pm
You forgot Steven’s update on June 3rd.
“Anyone betting on the minimum extent needs to recognize that summer weather can dramatically effect the behaviour of the ice. The fact that the ice is thicker now is no guarantee that it won’t shrink substantially if the summer turns out to be very warm, windy or sunny. Joe Bastardi believes that it will be a warm summer in the Arctic. I’m not a weather forecaster and won’t make any weather predictions.”
So let me ask you a question using your interpretation of what a prediction is. Who is going to be closer to their “prediction” Steven Goddard at 5.5+or Mark Serreze with his less than 2007 minimum?
bob says:
August 31, 2010 at 3:54 pm
Steve,
You posted,
“Ice volume has increased year over year since 2008, and there will be a significant increase in the amount of multi-year ice in 2011. Those are the primary considerations in a recovery. Ask NSIDC if you don’t believe me.”
And I did, or rather found that question in their FAQ file, and here is their answer
“Even though the extent of Arctic sea ice has not returned to the record low of 2007, the data show that it is not recovering.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
You addressed the wrong part of what he was talking about. Increase in volume and increase in mutliyear ice is what he was referring to when he said ask NSIDC if those are the primary considerations in determining if a recovery is happening. He did not say to ask the NSIDC if they will say a recovery is happening. Maybe he could have worded his phrases differently to make himself clearer to the reader. But still, if you had read what he was saying you could have caught what he meant.
You may have seen what you wanted to see and then addressed that instead of what he ws really saying.
NSIDC will not say a recovery is happening. The man in charge there says Arctic ice is in a death spiral. And another man from there has said there will soon be ice free summers in the Arctic. The NSIDC is an agency run by the government. They will be in line with what the government is saying. And right now the government is saying global warming is happening. They will not say otherwise.
But anyone can see Arctic ice has grown since the 2007 loss. Multiyear ice is increasing and extent is growing. It is impossible to have a decrease in volume while those two things are occuring. It is simple math.
Jon P writes,
“So let me ask you a question using your interpretation of what a prediction is. Who is going to be closer to their “prediction” Steven Goddard at 5.5+or Mark Serreze with his less than 2007 minimum?”
Steve’s “You bet ya” sounded like a prediction (of a record high minimum) to me. What did Mark say, that sounded like a prediction (of a record low minimum) to you?
What this year’s final minimum will be I have my guess (like everyone else), but weather makes the final cut. Climate change is the trend, though, and that’s spiraling downward whether 2010 is the lowest or just the third-lowest yet measured.
And Serreze has my vote any day on who understands more about Arctic ice. Think there’s one Arctic scientist on the planet who’d say Goddard?
Jon P,
If Anthony Watts was correct in identifying Günther Kirschbaum as “Neven”, then one reason to discuss his possible motivations is because he announced on his blog recently that he was going to be offline until Friday. Obviously, you couldn’t be expected to know that. Nevertheless, I can’t see that I’ve prevented him from posting here if he does happen to visit anytime soon, so I can’t see where you get your “Perhaps next time you will let Gunther respond to my comment directed at him…”.
As to your putting words in my mouth, going by your excuse for thinking I consider government the model of efficiency, apparently you don’t understand the difference between “efficacy” and “efficiency”. For your information, the former means the capacity to produce an effect. It doesn’t imply that the effect is necessarily produced efficiently.
Do you also have an explanation about why you apparently believed I had expressed an opinion that high temperatures in Moscow were clearly attributable to CAGW? Or are you conceding you put words in my mouth with that one?
REPLY: Correction, I stated today in Announcements I’d be offline starting Friday perhaps through Saturday, not till Friday. -Anthony
Gneiss,
“And Serreze has my vote any day on who understands more about Arctic ice. Think there’s one Arctic scientist on the planet who’d say Goddard?”
Then why waste your time here your highness? Other than to appeal to authority and ignore quotes that counter your interpretation of people’s words. Steven made the you betcha quote on June 2. I provided his update on June 3.
Serreze ““Could we break another record this year? I think it’s quite possible,” said Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo.
“We are going to lose the summer sea-ice cover. We can’t go back.”
“The issue is that, for the first time that I am aware of, the North Pole is covered with extensive first-year ice – ice that formed last autumn and winter. I’d say it’s even-odds whether the North Pole melts out,” said Dr Serreze. (on 2008)
“Indeed, for the Arctic as a whole, the melt season started with even more thin ice than in 2007, hence concerns that we may even beat last year’s sea-ice minimum. We’ll see what happens, a great deal depends on the weather patterns in July and August,” he said. ”
Oh I see Serreze can mention that sea ice cover can vary depending on weather, but Steven Goddard cannot, got it.
I’ll say one thing, you sure make me laugh, your highness.
Anthony,
I was saying Günther Kirschbaum/Neven had announced he’d be offline, not you.
Djon says:
August 31, 2010 at 6:50 pm
Wow talk about straying from the path of comprehension! When I said perhaps you should let Gunther respond, I meant you should let Gunther speak for himself.
Thanks for the uneeded dictionary lesson as you need to look more closely how the two words are related.
Since the objective of your posts is soley to turn and twist what people write, please find for me where I said “Djon said this”.
I’ll be waiting.
Just because you said I put words in your mouth does not make it so.