by Steve Goddard
Tamino has named me “Mr. Cherry” for picking start dates of graphs which are different from the ones he chooses to cherry pick. For instance, he considers 1975 to be the start of “the modern global warming era.”
Living up to his high standards, I declare August 16, 2010 to be the start of “the 2010 La Niña cool down”. Since August 16, UAH channel 5 global temperatures have been dropping at a rate of 1,554 degrees per century.
See below how that plots out.
If the trend continues, the earth will reach absolute zero in about 15 years.
That’s ridiculous, of course.
But the demonstration above is based on a similar logic of picking a start date of 1975 for measuring the global temperature record.
Why pick 1975? It makes the best pie.
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That’s a great quote:
“If you can’t debate your opponents on the substance of the issue, crush them on the minor details.”
It echoes some others I recently stumbled across:
“If the big picture is clear enough to decide, then decide from the big picture without using a magnifying glass.” ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blink_(book) )
and
“Distracting oneself with the weakest evidence possible, as if there was no clear-cut evidence available, is clinical d*.”
(Willard at http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2010/08/20/the-brushback/comment-page-2/#comment-15354 )
“I declare August 16, 2010 to be the start of “the 2010 La Niña cool down”.
Look, Gooddard, it’s all well and good making woolly-minded assertions about alleged start dates, but such shoddy vagueness simply isn’t sufficient to convey the required credibility.
Now, what TIME on August 16 2010 did the cool down begin?
I would have picked 1963.
Thank you for your gracious admission of defeat, Steve.
Only periods of warming count. Therefore, any cooling period, or downward trend from the cherry picked warming should be ignored. Then you can confidently declare that eg 2007 will be the hottest year on record, and that the “mild winters continue”.. If this turns out not to be the case, and that, in fact, the opposite turns out to be the case, then you can just conveniently brush the wrong predictions under the carpet and pretend that one’s knowledge is becoming better all the time.
Thats how the Met Office here in the UK bluff their way through climate science – which is not something they know much about. (Hence the need to bluff it)
What happened in 1975 that made that the year to start ‘modern global warming’?
Nothing.
Except the convenience of the true believer’s need for a scary graph.
Jimmy Haigh: August 27, 2010 at 12:59 am
It is not so much dropping as plummeting.
This evening’s choice of desserts are cherry cobbler and plummet pudding…
[snip] Invalid email address – RTmod
The “classical period” for climate is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (Wiki).
To paraphrase Mandy Rice-Davies, they would wouldn’t they.
When Hansen made his congressional testimony in the hot summer of 1988, there was absolutely no evidence of the climate responding to human CO2 forcing.
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/to:1987/mean:25/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1940/to:1987/trend
[snip] – Invalid email address – RTmod
EM Smith
Pretty much agree with you. I prefer reversal picking methods myself, generally the reversals to the minor corrections that occur within a somewhat longer trend. For me predictions of such a reversal are only good for 1 to 2 days and after that all bets are off if the market doesn’t initially go your way.
Right back at them !!
Great work !!
I doubt that they will get it though !!
richard telford
I understand exactly. Tamino’s analysis turned a 0.7/century trend into a 2.0/century trend, by cherry picking the start date.
Did CO2 somehow change its fundamental properties in 1975?
If is not a four-letter word, is it?
” if La Nina doesn’t blow it.”
Is this MSM report suitable for the Cherry picking file? If not, delete/ throw/stash it in the La Nina file for the record.
Here’s MSM & Environment Canada’s modeller’s guarantee:
“Phillips guarantees we won’t have a winter like last year, when it was four degrees warmer than usual.”
…-
“TORONTO — Canada is on track to have the hottest year on record by far — if La Nina doesn’t blow it.”
“Canada headed for warmest year yet
First half of year 3.5 degrees higher than normal
By PAT HEWITT The Canadian Press ”
http://thechronicleherald.ca/Canada/1198947.html
“Tamino”‘s graph has a 300,000 year running average?
I put “Tamino” name in double quotes, because to my ears, it sounds like a girl name, but I am told “Tamino” is a guy.
If you google the term, it comes pre-packaged with words like ‘debunk’, ‘call out’, and the like.
I remember “Tamino” tried recovering after his *** was handed to him, twice in a row now. McIntyre and VS.
The link to that Tamino’s blog post is wrong. It should be
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/08/13/mister-cherry/
where Steve debates with Tamino in detail.
There once was a pundit named Goddard,
Who came down on critics, oh so hard.
His humor so dry
Made his enemies cry:
“We’re worse than you thought, so there!”
Cherries make the best humble pie. Pass Tamino a large spoon.
E.M. Smith: Don’t give the warmists too good ideas, they’ll just choose the “Snowball Earth” of 716 million years ago 😉
Hmm.. That looks exactly like Hansen’s recent hockey stick:
http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/hansentreends.jpg?w=510&h=369
http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/trendthroughjuly2010.png?w=510&h=393&h=393
Pretty obvious exactly what chart they’re cherry picking – the one with no recent cooling. Means to an end all over again. Now for the satellites:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_Jan_10.jpg
Looks pretty different eh? Hansen making up for “short” falls again. Maybe he should drive a Viper..
CheshireRed
Which time zone are you thinking?
RW says:
“You don’t understand what cherry-picking is.”
Is it like when RW picks a comment by John Hayter, and posts the same thing?
Piping hot french toast lathered with cherry preserves — yummy breakfast.
Also on the menu — a heap of humor and satire; great for the mind for those that have one.
stevengoddard says:
August 27, 2010 at 4:06 am
Did CO2 somehow change its fundamental properties in 1975?
Of course it did! Everyone knows that. It froze from the ice age we experienced based on the prevailing wisdom of that time!
Well, my recollection of the ’70’s, UK in particular and during the rolling power black-outs, even 1975, was that it was very cold (Fortunately, we had an open fire). Melbourne, Vic, Australia, apparently suffered it’s coldest few days, on record, so far this week during political “negotiations” (According to an SBS newscast). I can’t find a link however. Also, heavy snows on the hills, and snow looking to continue into spring.