Well, that was quick. Watch this animation from my radio station web page to see Hurricane Danielle start to disorganize:
Here’s the latest bulletin from NHC:
WTNT31 KNHC 241442
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010
…DANIELLE UNEXPECTEDLY WEAKENS…BUT FORECAST TO REGAIN
STRENGTH…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.6N 46.5W
ABOUT 985 MI…1585 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH…130
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ALTHOUGH
DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED…RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB…29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.
J Solters says:
August 24, 2010 at 11:14 am
That would be a very good advice for them: Just read WUWT everyday just arriving to their job and all their forecasts will dramatically improve in quality.
Tenuc says:
August 24, 2010 at 11:36 am
a screaming dervish?
Your association seems to refer to the dervishes’ dance of the enneagram, where they perform the development of the sacred law of seven (octave). That is a pertinent association.
This is totally consistent with AGW. It’s been known for a long time that one of the effects of CO2 induced global warming is that hurricanes will downgrade as they approach North America. Unless they don’t downgrade…and then that’s consistent as well.
looks like my prediction is still in the running:) Hehe all the best models, monkeys, and squid against a Tarot card.. Im lmao.
There has been almost universal agreement that this would be a big hurricane season from forecasters of all sides of the global warming spectrum.
This certainly is not a skeptics vs. alarmists issue.
@ur momisugly Carddan (August 24, 2010 at 9:18 am)
I strongly object to you calling him “the monkey” …
“he” is Dr James Hansimian, and he holds a PhD …
moreover, in forecasting the future, any future, his method (2 dice) has been proven to be far more superior than the ubiquitous computer model …
a computer is a great piece of equipment (proof is e.g. this site or the internet), but not for giving even a hint of what is happening tomorrow, let alone in a month …
the 5 pm update now shows wind speeds down to 70mph. i wonder if that was in any of the models…
Now that it is weaker, it is less vulnerable to the upper level steering environment. More west than north, maybe? If it stays weaker, I’d be a little more worried about it sneaking underneath and coming a little closer to the southeast coast for comfort. But that trough is strong, so that is a big plus for them on the coast.
Chris; Just some dry air being pulled into the systems as the secondary lunar tidal bulge slides back toward the equator, when the moon crosses the equator on the 26th, the primary bulge effects will start to pull these all north again.
Should be moving faster by the 27th, 28th, then powering up heading for the North Western point of it’s path by the 30th, 31st.
http://linkification.com/wx/2010/dry3.jpg
I am just shotgunning the crap out of this site today with this comment, sorry:(
Marcos
I commented yesterday that the storm was headed towards cooler water.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB514tiiw2s]
The implication being that it was not likely to turn into a huge storm.