By Steve Goddard
The National Wildlife Federation has quite a history of stretching the truth when it comes to “global warming.” But I think they have outdone themselves.
This summer’s stifling, deadly heat along the Eastern Seaboard and Deep South could be a preview of summers to come over the next few decades, according to a report about global warming to be published Wednesday by the National Wildlife Federation and the Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America. In fact, according to NWF climate scientist Amanda Staudt, the summer of 2010 might actually be considered mild compared with the typical summers in the future. “We all think this summer is miserable, but it’s nothing compared to what’s in store for us,” she says. … The report, a supplement to a 2009 report on heat waves, notes that more extremely hot summer days are projected for every part of the country by the year 2050: “Summers like the current one, or even worse, will become the norm by 2050 if global warming pollution continues to increase unabated.”
Interesting theory! Only problem is that summers have been generally getting cooler across those regions for the last 80 years. Below are the NCDC summer (Jun-Aug) trend graphs for all of the states discussed in the article. More than half of those states have seen declining summer temperatures, and the average trend is -0.1°F per century.
Temperature degF / Decade Louisiana 81.17 0.01 Mississippi 79.75 -0.15 Alabama 78.96 -0.15 Florida 80.93 0.08 Georgia 78.9 -0.1 South Carolina 78.55 -0.03 North Carolina 75.8 -0.02 Virginia 73.41 -0.06 Maryland 73.34 0.09 Delaware 74.15 0.14 New Jersey 72.23 0.08 Pennsylvania 68.98 -0.15 New York 66.83 -0.08 Connecticut 68.97 0.12 Rhode Island 68.77 0.18 Massachusetts 68.15 -0.02 New Hampshire 65.41 0.04 Vermont 65.24 -0.07 Maine 63.84 -0.1
As CO2 has increased from 330 ppm to 393 ppm, summer temperatures have declined.
But it gets worse. Note in the plot below that the states with the highest population density generally also have the highest temperature trends. There is a UHI signal which is corrupting the temperature trend. NCDC is supposed to adjust for UHI, but it is pretty clear that they are not doing a good job. Rhode Island has the second highest population density in the US, and the highest summer temperature trend in the group.
If UHI was properly adjusted for, there would likely be little or no upwards trend in most of the states which currently show one.
Philadelphia finished July with an average temperature of 80F. That is one degree cooler than the years 1793 and 1838, and tied July 1791, 1798, 1822, 1825, 1828, and 1830. July was almost as hot as it was 217 years ago, when CO2 was at 290 ppm.
Apparently NWF believes that three weeks of hot July weather is more significant than a couple of centuries of climate data. Because hot weather is climate – when it is your job to shout fire in a crowded theatre.
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Florida
South Carolina
North Carolina
Virginia
Maryland
Delaware
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
New York
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Vermont
Maine
marchesarosa
As stated in the article, the data is for June through August and comes from NCDC
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/state.html
wwf
Is there some reason why we should care about warming which occurred prior to 1930?
RW
Do you think that Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, New York and Pennsylvania are in the south? You might raise some Yankee ire with your latitude theory.
The slope has a 27% error. All lines within the error bars show a positive correlation between density and temperature trend.
Nice try.
Interesting dicussion about when local weather/climate can be taken as guide to global weather/climate changes. The English are notoriously fixated on this small island’s ever changing weather. I for one patiently await the latest pixel added to HadCet:
‘Central England Temperature is representative of a roughly triangular area of the United Kingdom, enclosed by Bristol, Lancashire and London. The monthly series begins in 1659, and is the longest available instrumental record of temperature in the world.’
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/hadcet.html
Which to my untrained eye shows a steeply sustained cooling over middle England at a time when temperatures were, according to our Government, rising inexorably .
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch had an article about the heat on Tuesday, accompanied by a graphic that said the city’s had 2 days of triple-digit weather so far this year while listing 12 years from the last century that had 10 days or more, including 37 days in ’36. Sounds unprecedented to me…
when will the next gov grant come ? that’s all they think about me me me
Just looking at the table shows the lack of any trend in this data (with the possible exception of population density as noted by Steve).
Compare these pairs of neighbouring states:
Delaware = +0.14
Pennsylvania + -0.15
Massachusetts = -0.02
Rhode Island = +0.18
Connecticut = +0.12
New York = -0.08
With variation like this, we are either talking random or highly localized driving factors, not levels of well-mixed greenhouse gases.
Enough said?
Some observers are starting to separate the wood from the trees:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727730.101-frozen-jet-stream-leads-to-flood-fire-and-famine.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news
From that article:
“Now he says he has evidence from 350 years of historical records to show that low solar activity is also associated with summer blocking events (Environmental Research Letters, in press). “There’s enough evidence to suspect that the jet stream behaviour is being modulated by the sun,” he says.”
Well they are getting there slowly. It’s not just 350 years. It’s as far back as we can discern and it’s winter as well as summer. They just need to add the other components that I’ve described elsewhere and then join the dots.
“Earlier this year astrophysicist Mike Lockwood of the University of Reading, UK, showed that winter blocking events were more likely to happen over Europe when solar activity is low – triggering freezing winters (New Scientist, 17 April, p 6).”
It’s nice to be vindicated on my general climate overview.
Oops, should be:
Delaware = +0.14
Pennsylvania = -0.15
sorry
The article quoted by Steve is at USA Today and it has a poll with it. Interesting results:
Is global warming real?
Yes, it’s entirely caused by humans – 18%
Yes, but its due to both human and natural factors – 38%
Yes, but it’s part of a natural climate cycle – 27%
I don’t know – 4%
No, it’s a complete hoax – 14%
TOTAL VOTES: 21994 (@ur momisugly ~08:30am EST)
“I suppose it would be silly to point out that the USA in not the world?”
Well, it was the NWF that was using the Eastern and Southern US heat wave (a regional WEATHER phenomenon) to make an argument FOR global warming, so this article is merely thoroughly debunking that. Did you mean to point that out to us here, or did you mean that we should be pointing that out to the NWF “scientists”?
Village Idiot,
You are silly to claim “unbiased points” and then throw in a GISS temperature record. All GISS does is add bias to raw data to come up with their figures. You will have to do better than that.
Re: Henry Chance
“Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. Stephen Schneider PBUH
I don’t think they have been very effective either.”
While I do not agree with everything Mr. Schneider says, I believe this quote is taken entirely out of context. In the full and original quote he was actually arguing against the soundbite methdology of typical climate “science”. The misquote that gets the most circulation started with an editorial in the Detroit News where important phrases were selectively removed.
The full quote from Discover magazine (below) may not endear you to Mr. Schneider, but certainly not as damning as the misquote.
“On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but – which means that we must include all doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climate change. To do that we need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, means getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This “double ethical bind” we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both.”
Notice the final sentence which is often omitted.
How do we know what temperature is ‘normal’ for the earth?
And to extrapolate, what level of CO2 is ‘normal’?
Doesn’t anybody think past their noses.
Climate scientist for the NWF. Wow, what a gig.
Nothing but pure science there for sure.
“”75% of the states with population density over 300 have a positive trend. 80% of the states with a population density less than 300 have a negative trend.””
And if you adjusted all of the temperatures down for UHI (instead of up like they do) you would have no warming at all.
The states with warming would show none, the states with cooling would show even more cooling.
Just on these numbers, adding up the raw, shows cooling.
“poof” there it goes………….
There’s even a video:
Heat Wave Report-Behind the Scenes of the Satellite Media Tour | Al Gore Videos http://bit.ly/aprFiH
Neat – Amanda gets to wear the little earpiece and everything!
Covered by USA Today, Time, CNN Radio, CBS Radio and local television news. Pretty good for a *5-page* “report” that is mostly big pretty pictures http://bit.ly/b8JdFY
…What grade would it get if it was handed in for an undergraduate course?
MJB
Schneider is saying that it is OK to exaggerate and hide the truth if you think you are saving the planet.
This is a great clip from Russia Today on weather and climate forecasting:
Piers Corbyn
How do we know what temperature is ‘normal’ for the earth?
Careful! NASA chief Michael Griffin said about that same thing… and got eviscerated by the press.
BTW. I’ve lived here in the San Joaquin Valley of California off and on since 1978 (crap I’m getting old… I blame global warming). This summer is definitely the coolest I can remember. Of course, it’s probably the warmest according to GISS.
Great analysis!
stevengoddard
I would generally agree with your summary of Schneider. I just think if we are going to criticize someone we should atleast put the quotes in the right context, else we slip into cherry picking as we often criticize the MSM for.
Look guys, I seems clear to me and I have plenty of evidence….. Summer for any given area, is hotter than Winter…. I know, I know. It’s a radical hypothesis…. But I’m gonna stick to it.
Steve Goddard,
re: “Is there some reason why we should care about warming which occurred prior to 1930?”
Yes you/we should care. The data source you use begins in 1895, a fact which is known to most people who cite the data and use it in analyses. By choosing to start in 1930, you may cause people to suspect your motives.
And yes, your choice of start data does matter. For example, you cite an Alabama summer temperature trend of -0.15 degF pre decade. Using the entire series from 1895 gives a trend value of -0.09 degF per decade.
I am assuming you had a reason for starting in 1930 – perhaps you could share it with the readers.
I’ll tell you, if it gets any hotter around here it is going to start to feel like the 1930s….HOBO