By Steve Goddard
The National Wildlife Federation has quite a history of stretching the truth when it comes to “global warming.” But I think they have outdone themselves.
This summer’s stifling, deadly heat along the Eastern Seaboard and Deep South could be a preview of summers to come over the next few decades, according to a report about global warming to be published Wednesday by the National Wildlife Federation and the Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America. In fact, according to NWF climate scientist Amanda Staudt, the summer of 2010 might actually be considered mild compared with the typical summers in the future. “We all think this summer is miserable, but it’s nothing compared to what’s in store for us,” she says. … The report, a supplement to a 2009 report on heat waves, notes that more extremely hot summer days are projected for every part of the country by the year 2050: “Summers like the current one, or even worse, will become the norm by 2050 if global warming pollution continues to increase unabated.”
Interesting theory! Only problem is that summers have been generally getting cooler across those regions for the last 80 years. Below are the NCDC summer (Jun-Aug) trend graphs for all of the states discussed in the article. More than half of those states have seen declining summer temperatures, and the average trend is -0.1°F per century.
Temperature degF / Decade Louisiana 81.17 0.01 Mississippi 79.75 -0.15 Alabama 78.96 -0.15 Florida 80.93 0.08 Georgia 78.9 -0.1 South Carolina 78.55 -0.03 North Carolina 75.8 -0.02 Virginia 73.41 -0.06 Maryland 73.34 0.09 Delaware 74.15 0.14 New Jersey 72.23 0.08 Pennsylvania 68.98 -0.15 New York 66.83 -0.08 Connecticut 68.97 0.12 Rhode Island 68.77 0.18 Massachusetts 68.15 -0.02 New Hampshire 65.41 0.04 Vermont 65.24 -0.07 Maine 63.84 -0.1
As CO2 has increased from 330 ppm to 393 ppm, summer temperatures have declined.
But it gets worse. Note in the plot below that the states with the highest population density generally also have the highest temperature trends. There is a UHI signal which is corrupting the temperature trend. NCDC is supposed to adjust for UHI, but it is pretty clear that they are not doing a good job. Rhode Island has the second highest population density in the US, and the highest summer temperature trend in the group.
If UHI was properly adjusted for, there would likely be little or no upwards trend in most of the states which currently show one.
Philadelphia finished July with an average temperature of 80F. That is one degree cooler than the years 1793 and 1838, and tied July 1791, 1798, 1822, 1825, 1828, and 1830. July was almost as hot as it was 217 years ago, when CO2 was at 290 ppm.
Apparently NWF believes that three weeks of hot July weather is more significant than a couple of centuries of climate data. Because hot weather is climate – when it is your job to shout fire in a crowded theatre.
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Florida
South Carolina
North Carolina
Virginia
Maryland
Delaware
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
New York
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Vermont
Maine
Cassandra King says:
August 12, 2010 at 9:26 pm
I wonder why such organisations have a corporate policy on AGW? I could be wrong but how are their finances structured and who is pulling the financial strings?
http://tinyurl.com/27l5t4e
“…the National Wildlife Federation filed 427 lawsuits;…”
Their money comes from the U.S. tax payer.
We really need to stop this….NOW!
Village Idiot says:
August 12, 2010 at 10:22 pm
GISS has zero credibility. They have been caught too many times fudging data and making it up out of thin air.
The heat wave in Russia is nothing more than a 1 in a row for the likes of GISS, NOAA and the IPCC.
John Brookes says:
August 12, 2010 at 9:59 pm
I suppose it is silly to say that while my weather here is anomalously cool this summer (and No. Calif. in general), it is by coincidence that the GCMs have us repeatedly anomalously high.
Here’s my proof of it: http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/WeavervilleClimate.htm
A most cool summer as they go in No. Calif., with meteorologists shaking their heads openly on the nightly news over the strange Sacramento Delta Breeze extended addition, the likes of which have never been seen in modern times.
What Global Warming? Not at all. Our newspaper reports odd weather in the 19th Century, and talk of our climate changing well over 120 years ago.
If I was to send a CAGW believing friend an example of why I am a skeptic, this article would be one of my examples. It shows simply how data can be twisted to sell alarmism. These alarmists really are like pushers. No wonder they need so much money.
Village Idiot wrote:
“However, Fenimore notes that the frequency at which these extreme weather events are occurring — such as extreme heat or cold — are on the increase.”
Is it true that the frequency is really increasing?
Somewhat agree with you on the Great Cooling point. Pretty hard for me to get concerned about that either.
Steve G “… the [weather] models break down quickly due to chaos – after three days.”
And they’d break down much more quickly if they weren’t updated with new observational data at least twice a day.
John Brookes says:
August 12, 2010 at 9:59 pm
“I suppose it would be silly to point out that the USA in[SIC] not the world?”
Yes and no.
No, obviously, it isn’t the world. Yes, it is silly. While temps are unique to location, weather patterns are just that. You can watch them go around the globe. They go in an easterly direction. One can use the patterns to be predictive of the rest of the globe, be it in Russia or the U.S., or Europe. Of course, that wasn’t really the point of the post. If it were, it would have probably included the Southern Hemisphere.
But, that isn’t the reason your statement is “silly”. The post, referencing the article wasn’t talking about the world. The article itself was referencing the U.S.
Let’s review, the article from the “National Wildlife Federation”….stated, “This summer’s stifling, deadly heat along the Eastern Seaboard and Deep South could be a preview….”
Now, it could be the “National” was referencing some other nation. However, I’m hard-pressed to think of any nation the NWF was referencing other than the U.S. Perhaps you have some other insight? When it speaks of the “Eastern Seaboard”, do you believe it is speaking of the eastern coast of Taiwan, or perhaps, Mozambique? When it literates the “Deep South”, are you imagining the Antarctic? Or perhaps Gibraltar? Maybe even South Africa?
Steven’s response to the article is confined to the U.S. because the article itself was referencing the U.S. It is true that most of us in the U.S. are ego-maniacs, but, if you can’t figure out the context of the article or the response, perhaps the issue isn’t the megalomania we have, but rather the comprehension of the reader, which, in this case would be you.
Sorry for the curt tone, but I lost at pool tonight and you were there in all of your insinuated accusatory glory.
Dave N says:
August 12, 2010 at 8:54 pm
One really has to wonder on what they are basing their “predictions”, because it certainly isn’t observations.
I suspect that the process is as follows.
1. Pseudo-scientific belief in Catastrophic Man Made Warming – Check.
2. Ignorance of the value and purpose of rigourous Empirical Tests – Check.
3. Belief the Climate Models are able to predict the future (i.e. 90 Yrs) – Check
4. Ignorance 0f the corruption of the surface temperature record – Check
5. Belief that warming temperatures will lead to extreme weather events – Check.
6. Actual recorded observations that CO2 is increasing in the Atmosphere – Check.
Hence CO2 is increasing – therefore predict Catastrophy.
Cassandra King says:
August 12, 2010 at 9:26 pm
CK, the “Bishop Hill” blog has a brief article “Could Greenpeace go bust?
Greenpeace needs ‘to bring in more than $700,000 a day just to keep the lights on’
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2010/8/10/could-greenpeace-go-bust.html
Links from the Bishop Hill article ; http://www.newsrealblog.com/2010/08/09/greenpeace-needs-to-bring-in-more-than-700000-a-day-just-to-keep-the-lights-on/
and
http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/groupProfile.asp?grpid=7222
Greenpeace which was founded in 1970 or thereabouts is just one of the many so called activist environmental groups.
The majority of these activist environmental groups are getting close to 40 years old and at that age are probably well into their third generation of administrators.
My mother had an old german saying, “Clogs to clogs in three generations”.
I have seen this pattern so often in my 7 decades.
The founders, the first generation are vigorous and dedicated at building the organisation.
The second generation are industrious at following the precepts of the founders.
The third generation are opportunistic and are prepared to sell the organisation’s
principles for a bowl of gruel and that is where the environmental organisations stand today.
They are on the downhill run to decay, corruption and eventual irrelevancy and when that stage is reached and it is still a couple of decades off, then they will slowly dissappear from the face of the Earth and future generations will be left to wonder why they ever appeared and what was their relevancy..
rbateman
You have a huge area of very cold water off to the west. I was in San Jose a few weeks ago and was amazed by how cool it was in full sunshine.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Be on the lookout for some “down adjustments” to NH ice as the current trend is unacceptable to the AGW. This seems to happen nearly everytime at this time see previous data adjustments
Re previous for example CT has stopped time lapse video of NH ice at 10/08/2010 me paranoidal. Also all charts stopped 4 days ago LOL
Richard111:
I can tell you that Singapore is as hot and humid as it was in my childhood in the ’50s when I first lived there. Now I live in Manila, likewise hot and humid, visit Hong Kong, Singapore, Beijing and Tokyo frequently, and all are as hot and humid as they ever were in summer and probably always will be until the next, naturally occurring, ice age. And life still goes on all across Asia.
This is the type of nonsense that drives people mad. THE HANSEN SUMMER PANIC ANNOUNCEMENT. Sheeeesh. When does it end? (I know. About December. When Al Gore times his speeches.)
It has been pointed out loads of times that cold kills far more than heat.
It should also be pointed out that there is loads of evidence that increases in Asthma and allergies are attributable to a number of features in modern living and any contribution from hot weather is extremely tenuous. Start looking at the ventilation in modern centrally heated and air conditioned rooms. Start looking at air pollution problems. Start looking at changes in diet (especially more and more highly pre-processed food).
But they waste time and energy milking the poor tired old AGW cow.
Perhaps they should be described as Shills for BigSnakeOil.
Anu: August 12, 2010 at 9:28 pm
I know NWF can help you make your backyard more attractive to local wildlife
Yeah, but you just need a bit of common sense for that — and you don’t have to pony up $20 for a sign telling the birds “Food, water, cover, and concealment here.”
Good work Steve
Perhaps you might like to investigate the veracity of 2010 temperature figures-the so called ‘warmest year on record’. I picked this up from one of the links.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2012609669_climate13.html
“Worldwide temperature readings, meanwhile, show that this January-June was the hottest first half of a year since record-keeping began in the mid-19th century. Meteorologists say 17 nations have recorded all-time-high temperatures in 2010, more than in any other year.”
There are 200 nations on Earth of which perhaps 40 have temperature recoreds back to 1850. So if 17 are having their warmest year ‘ever’, the overwhelming majority-183-aren’t and didn’t even have a historic record to compare to anyway .
Some places are warming, some are static, some are actcally cooling. Urban databases have now become the norm and don’t begin to reflect the UHI effect, let alone station moves or poor siting.
The warming signal is overwhelming the cooling signal but this doesn’t mean to say there is universal global warming-just hot spots.
tonyb
This summer’s stifling, deadly heat along the Eastern Seaboard and Deep South could be a preview of summers to come over the next few decades,
Had they really gone down to the ‘deep south’ they would have come accross Latin America where in July it was reported:
Cold snap freezes South America – beaches whitened, some areas experience snow for the first time in living memory
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/20/cold-snap-freezes-south-america-beaches-whitened-some-areas-experience-snow-for-the-first-time-in-living-memory/
And what about the ‘milder’ winters which is a signal of global warming?
October Through March Was the Snowiest On Record In The Northern Hemisphere
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/13/october-through-march-was-the-snowiest-on-record-in-the-northern-hemisphere/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/15/the-snow-line-is-moving-south/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/06/the-frigid-hit-parade-over-1200-new-cold-and-snow-records-set-in-the-last-week-in-the-usa-more-in-progress/
Also in Mongolia thousands of cattle lay dead due to extreme winter cold, China hit by record snow and the UK hit by the coldest temperatures and snow in 40 years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_2009%E2%80%932010_in_the_United_Kingdom
Let’s ignore these inconvenient fact and focus instead on heatwaves. The problem with this is that the global warming sign will show itself in milder winters.
“Note in the plot below that the states with the highest population density generally also have the highest temperature trends.”
I strongly doubt that result is statistically significant. Perhaps you could use an appropriate test to find this out though.
“There is a UHI signal which is corrupting the temperature trend.”
Non sequitur. This is obviously your very firm preconception, but it doesn’t follow from the data. There is also a relation in the US between population density and latitude, which is obviously not causal. Temperature trend, though, is causally linked to latitude. You obviously haven’t considered this at all.
“If UHI was properly adjusted for, there would likely be little or no upwards trend in most of the states which currently show one.”
Pure supposition and wishful thinking on your part. It is not impressive to make a claim like this without any attempt at a quantitive analysis.
Climate kafirs. Always around to pee on my alarmist parade.
Amanda Staudt, says “Summers like the current one, or even worse, will become the norm by 2050 if global warming pollution continues to increase unabated.”
Um, Amanda, summers “like the current one, or even worse” ARE the norm!
(as the data clearly show)
Part of no trend comes from starting the curves in 1930 as the 30’s were in general warm in the US. Start in 1850 and you would probably have slight uptrends on average.
But in any case, in no place but the GISS temperature model is the US rapidly heating.
I swear, Holy Hologram and Bill Tuttle should start a Climate Comedy Club. Some of the comments and one-liners really get me going. Thanks!
Hey, RW,
Yea, maybe your right with your comment, :”This is obviously your very firm preconception”. Read Anthony’s work on the surface stations, and go back to the archives here for awhile and buck up matey.
A preconception from Steve based on factual data and observation? I’ll take that any day of the week over the stuff getting shoveled down our throats by the IPCC and MSM. But, maybe you’re not used to that kinda subjective stuff, eh?
Another great job Steve…Thank You.
RW,
Nice try at obscuring the obvious.
Northern states Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Vermont and Maine all have negative slopes, as do southern states Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. There is no link to latitude as you claim.
The states with the highest trends are the small urban states, Rhode Island, Delaware, Connecticut and Maryland.
75% of the states with population density over 300 have a positive trend. 80% of the states with a population density less than 300 have a negative trend.
y = (a*x) + b
Steve Goddard
Are the State graphs just for the month of July or for several summer months combined? Also, what organisation is the source of the data, please? I want to quote your information, but I know the first thing the doubters will ask is “where do those figures come from?” I would like to be ready with the answer, please.