Our one stop shopping Sea Ice Page has quickly become a world wide favorite, and Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather uses some of the graphics offered there.
To watch the AccuWeather broadcast go to:
http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj
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Steve Goddard writes that so far, “steady as a rock” and offers some interesting analysis:
At the beginning of June, I observed that the PIPS ice distribution in 2010 was very similar to 2006. The distributions were nearly identical, with 2010 average thickness a little lower than 2006.
Can we find another year with similar ice distribution as 2010? I can see Russian ice in my Windows. Note in the graph below that 2010 is very similar to 2006. 2006 had the highest minimum (and smallest maximum) in the DMI record. Like 2010, the ice was compressed and thick in 2006. Conclusion : Should we expect a nice recovery this summer due to the thicker ice? You bet ya.
Since then we have read seemingly endless hysterics by Joe Romm and government sources about record melt rates, and how clueless and ignorant my analysis has been. So let’s look at what has actually happened since June 1. The graph below shows JAXA extent since June 1 for 2006 and 2010.
Basically, they are two parallel lines. 2010 has tracked 2006 quite closely – just as PIPS said they should. There have been no major diversions from the pattern this summer. Summer 2010 has been almost a straight line. Apparently some bloggers “can’t see the forest for the trees.”
In the DMI record, 2010 has passed every year except 2005 and 2006. The only real question now is – will 2010 end up in the #2 or #3 spot?
Closeup below:
At the end of May, Mark Serreze and Joe Romm had a different take for 2010:
“Could we break another record this year? I think it’s quite possible,” said Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo.
We are in the fourth quarter of the 2010 game. The score right now is :
Breathtakingly Ignorant* WUWT – 1
Experts – 0
Will the peer reviewed experts score at the last minute? What do you think?
* A term coined by Dr. Mark Serrezze
These natural fluctuations will cause the spiral behavior…but the longer term trend will be down, according to GCM’s.
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At least you finally made the switch to calling them GCM’s as opposed to “AGW models”.
Really doesn’t matter.
Your predictions are meaningless, because you 1) don’t understand the data in the first place and 2) even if you did understand it, make no attempt to reconcile your preconceived notions on how climate should go (the 75% certain thing).
But thanks for giving continuous (yet rather monotonous) fodder and fuel to the fire as to why you are wrong.
Prove me wrong, here. But you are really just a fool who has nothing better to do with his time but to rehash and rehash and regurgitate again and AGAIN as to why you are right.
It is called NPD.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
You think it’s possible for 2010 to cross 2006 here to go to #1?
http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/525/icecover2010810.png
One can wish, can’t he? 🙂
The plot thickens!
from “Sea Ice News #17”
NCEP forecasts generally below normal temperatures for the next two weeks in the Arctic……DMI shows that summer is just about done north of 80N, and has been the coldest on record (for that dataset starting in 1958). Average temperatures have fallen below freezing there.
North of 80N has gone below freezing again:
http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/9537/810x.png
Could the summer of 2010 end up the coldest on DMi record?
Could 2010 end up higher than 2006?
For answers to these questions, and more, stayed tuned and get some popcorn! 😉
There should be a pretty darn slow melt period coming up as the Arctic ROOS, DMI 30%, and JAXA area graphs all have really halted in any downward trend. Once the “easy pickings” are finally gone, we should see quite a flattish looking line akin to 2006. It will probably not match 2006 but it might be enough to make this year finish higher than 2009 or 2005. 2008 and 2007 are long gone unless a major event occurs such as a meteor fracturing the ice and vaporizing it.
R. Gates says:
August 10, 2010 at 9:49 pm
I don’t know if the sun has picked up enough to test reason #1 this year, but clearly we should be able to test reason #2 this year. I await the September minimum with much anticipation (though I doubt as much as most of you here, as it is still just 1 year, [modest] recovery or no).
-Scott
RE: R. Gates says: (August 10, 2010 at 9:16 pm) “So your idea of a signal is sort of like a “recovery spiral” upward, never quite getting back to the longer term average, but making a sort of spiral-like good faith attempt? I am glad you don’t manage my finances…”
Perhaps, after a long drop, one should be encouraged by the fact that the plane finally appears be gaining altitude over the ocean at a very good clip and not be quite so outraged that the pilot is still far below his normal assigned flight level. These downdrafts can be very tricky.
Thrasher says:
August 10, 2010 at 11:27 pm
unless a major event occurs such as a meteor fracturing the ice and vaporizing it.
That would happen due to global warming. There’s probably a paper somewhere that says extra co2 attracts meteors.
savethesharks said:
(about R. Gates)
“But you are really just a fool who has nothing better to do with his time but to rehash and rehash and regurgitate again and AGAIN as to why you are right.”
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
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Thank you for the kind words…and with this ad hominem attack, I shall not waste my time with any further replys to your posts. You can disagree with me, but there are some lines that ought not be crossed.
Spector said:
“Perhaps, after a long drop, one should be encouraged by the fact that the plane finally appears be gaining altitude over the ocean at a very good clip…”
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If that were the case, I might be “encouraged”, but that not the case.
From: Amino Acids in Meteorites on August 11, 2010 at 7:38 am
Well the CO2 causes warming which causes expansion of the atmosphere which increases drag on meteors passing close by thus increasing the possibility of one impacting in the Arctic basin or New York City….
🙂
“”” Dan in California says:
August 9, 2010 at 8:47 am
……………………………………….
I am reminded of Ptolemy’s cycles within cycles needed to explain Mars’ observed retrograde orbit while maintaining the planets revolved around the earth.. “””
You mean they don’t ??
I once found a book in the library that had very complete diagrams of all of those planetary epicyclic orbits. I thought it was very clever of somebody to be able to figure all that out for all the (then known) planets.
R. Gates says: (August 11, 2010 at 9:47 am) “If that were the case, I might be “encouraged”, but that not the case.”
As the sum of the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice seems to have remained relatively constant over the last thirty years or so, I think we may now be at or just past the peak Antarctic phase of a seesaw ‘Trans-Arctic Oscillation.’