Global Tropical Cyclone Activity still at 30 year low

From: Ryan N. Maue’s 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update


Figure: Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sum through July 31, 2010. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/lime green boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE.
Note: Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone data is spotty prior to the introduction of reliable satellite monitoring, thus the ACE represented at the beginning of the 1980s is likely underestimated due to missing data. Thus, it is possible that the current global collapse in TC ACE is comparable to lows experienced prior to 30-years ago…

Global TC Activity remains at 30-year lows at least — The last 24-months of ACE at 1090 represents a decrease from the previous months and a return to the levels of September 2009.

Since Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) and the publication of high-profile papers in Nature and Science, global tropical cyclone ACE has collapsed in half. This continues the now 4-consecutive years global crash in tropical cyclone activity. While the Atlantic on average makes up about 10% of the global, yearly hurricane activity, the other 90% deserves attention and has been significantly depressed since 2007. See Figure below.

Northern Hemisphere year-to-date ACE is nearing 50% below normal. The Western North Pacific is at 17% of normal (or the past 30-year average).

Figure: Northern Hemisphere cumulative ACE per day of year from July – December. See legend for appropriate axis of each basin or NH total.
Climatological yearly ACE and HDAYS are based upon 1980-2009 values (last 30 years)
Daily Cumulative ACE file
[Month, Day, IO, EPAC, NATL, WPAC, NH]

============================================

Steve Goddard has done some interesting work that complements what Dr. Maue has discussed, see below. – Anthony

Steve Goddard writes:

Everyone in the hurricane forecast business predicted a big season this year. NOAA reaffirmed their position this week, as reported on WUWT.

One of the main reasons cited for the forecasts was “record high Atlantic SSTs.” So let’s look at the SST anomalies in the region between the Cape Verde Islands and the US. That is the normal hurricane formation track.

SSTs have plummeted and are now not much above normal. Compare SST anomalies vs those in late May. The hurricane breeding ground has not kept it’s unusual warmth.

Has this affected hurricane formation? Circumstantial evidence suggests yes. Hurricane numbers are average , and ACE is well below average.

http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2010/named-storms-climatology.gif

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74 thoughts on “Global Tropical Cyclone Activity still at 30 year low

  1. That’s going to be embarrassing for NOAA, half their predicted low number! What was Dr. Hansimian’s prediction?

  2. I think this information, and it’s ramifications for AGW, should be added to the “Our Climate” app.

  3. The change over from El Nino to La Nina are usually reasonably above average years for hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.
    This year, shear still appears to be a problem with the presence of TUTTs (tropical upper tropospheric troughs) but as JB says, they will be lifting out soon, the Azore and Bermuda highs will solidify and the Cape Verde breeding ground will start to produce.

    You can follow along with Mark Sudduth at:
    http://www.hurricanetrack.com

  4. Don’t forget that following the AGW crowd’s modus operandi of covering all bases NASA did claim that global warming would reduce the number of hurricanes.

  5. Global warming makes hurricanes stronger and weaker. More common and less common. Sometimes global warming makes them unchanged.

    People used to revere gods – now they worship CO2 and government scientists. Zeus vs. Hansen.

  6. Dr. Mann of Penn State predicted 23 named storms. Dr. Gray of CSU team predicted 18. Through today we have had 3. Much ground to cover in the next 117 days. The problem is one of speed. Cape Verde waves only come off the continent of Africa about once every 3 to 4 days. There will be less than 40 of these waves in the rest of the season. And of these less than 40 waves, only 10% to 15% are normally productive ie grow into tropical cyclones. This engine just doesn’t have the time or band width to get the job done. Its not a travesty, unless you are rooting for heat transfer to the North.

  7. 9 August. It is still early.

    Also, the SST area that shows below normal per the map Steve shows is not really the tropical cyclone breeding ground for the North Atlantic.

    The breeding ground i s further south, between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verde, and it shows a positively warm anomaly.

    The cooler area to the north doesn’t help, of course. But I would like to know how such a cold anomaly could appear so fast? Is it a giant upwelling?

    The latest NOAA weekly SST anomaly map (OK the latest I could pull up which is the last week of July), doesn’t show any such cold anomaly, or anything close:

    Neither does the map showing the last month:

    Something ain’t right here. What gives?

    What is the good map showing SSTs here?

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  8. Mike says:
    August 8, 2010 at 8:10 pm

    Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook

    Okay, Mike. We are truly sorry. Somehow we thought we were talking about the Atlantic Ocean. The names are similar but we won’t let this happen again. Next time maybe Anthony can start with a picture so we don’t get confused.

  9. John F. Hultquist says:
    August 8, 2010 at 9:16 pm
    Mike says:
    August 8, 2010 at 8:10 pm

    Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook

    Okay, Mike. We are truly sorry. Somehow we thought we were talking about the Atlantic Ocean. The names are similar but we won’t let this happen again. Next time maybe Anthony can start with a picture so we don’t get confused.

    Or maybe Steve can put a link in the first sentence that when you mouse over it it tells you the area that is being discussed and a previous article on it. You know as an off the wall example, completely picked at random:
    noaa-still-expects-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-la-nina-develops

  10. ” We are in the midst of the most horrific storm era in the history of mankind. If hurricanes were taxed, there would be less. Until so, all Republicans should be required to be tied to a palm tree in Florida.” Congressmen Markey and Waxman. Majority Report Of The Congressional Science For The People Committee.

  11. stevengoddard says:
    August 8, 2010 at 8:31 pm
    Global warming makes hurricanes stronger and weaker. More common and less common. Sometimes global warming makes them unchanged.

    People used to revere gods – now they worship CO2 and government scientists. Zeus vs. Hansen.

    LOL!! Thanks for the imagery, Steve!! Release the Kracken!

  12. Dear World,

    re; low tropical storm actitivty.

    We can’t explain it and that’s a travesty.

    Please send money.

    Sincerely,

    CAGW Boffins, Inc.

  13. So, not too many hurricanes for the media to get excited about, so they are having to fall back on a few other (carefully cherry picked) ClimateNotWeather events. Floods in Pakistan, Moscow Burning, The Monster Ice Cube. The WeatherNotClimate cold events in South America, like the severe European winter 2009/10 and the Mongolian Dzud can be ignored or forgotten.

    As Richard North puts it:-
    “…..we get plenty of coverage about the Russian heatwave, but got very little about the coldest winter in 130 years … in Russia. Thus, the whole subject is wide open to cherry-picking, which distorts even accurate reports of isolated events. Without an appreciation of the whole picture, and a longer-term perspective, there is nothing that can be properly inferred from these events.

    The real news, therefore, is not of climate, but of human tragedy and suffering. That we can do something about, and a fraction of the billions spent on “climate change” would go a long way to reducing the impact.

    But as long as we are in the grip of the climate zealots, those being killed by the weather now are less important that the lucrative funding opportunities arising from predicting future disasters. How perverse it is that potential deaths in the future get more money than real deaths now – a sad reflection on human priorities.”

    http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/08/perverse-set-of-priorities.html

  14. I have said it before and I’ll say it again;
    That is an effect from the timing of the synod conjunctions with the outer planets, Saturn on March the 22nd 2010, brought in a nice load of heavy rain, tornadoes and flash floods globally.

    Now with no other outer planet heliocentric conjunction until they are all clumped together August 20th till September 24th, the additional power inducted into the tropical storm engine has been lacking. Leaving us with just the lunar declinational tidal meridional pulses that brought us Bonnie and Colin as pulses of tropical moisture (that formed off of the center of circulation) with out the ion energy content to drive the peak precipitation that drives them into cat 2 – cat 5 storms.

    They (the bigger storms) are waiting till the ionic discharge of the global atmosphere that happens post synod conjunctions, expect the stronger storms to start on the 20th of August 2010, and run to 28th of August, 2010, and start up again September 21st and run through end of the month, with some after thoughts due to continued further discharges, coinciding with the lunar declinational culmination angle peaks, both North and South.

    The lack of severe Tropical storms is a combination of effects of the slow solar cycle activity, with the descending culmination angle of the lunar declination, and the outer planets Saturn /Mars this last spring, and Neptune, Uranus, Jupiter, and Venus all clumped into the fall this year.

    The huge clumps of strong hurricanes seen in 2005 will not be back as long as the outer planets Neptune and Uranus are drifting apart and progressing into the fall, instead we will be experiencing their effects as more East coast and European snow storms of increased intensity.

    Given also that there will be no outer planet assisted forced intrusions of warm moist tropical air masses, during the next several Northern winters, expect cold and blustery to be the norm for a while (about 15 to 20 more years.) You will see your breath, but not feel the CO2?

    As soon as I can get back to Phoenix, where I have high speed internet, available programmers and tech support, I will be plotting ACE values by lunar declination, and outer planet synod conjunctions to form a visual format in the search for correlations and to assist in formulation of causation mechanisms.
    Richard Holle

  15. I was trying to understand the comment regarding CUMULATIVE ACE PER DAY graph – “Northern Hemisphere year-to-date ACE is nearing 50% below normal. The Western North Pacific is at 17% of normal (or the past 30-year average). ”

    The side bar tables at Ryan’s web site helped me see what he was explaining, and might make a good update to the WUWT article above.

    The table data shows
    NH Current YTD 84 versus Normal YTD 156 (about 50%)
    and Western North Pacific YTD 14, vs Normal YTD 87 (about 16%)

    Table data from the link to “Ryan N. Maue’s 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update” web page
    http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

    # 2010 Tropical Cyclone Activity
    Updated Aug 08 , 2010

    BASIN CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
    Northern Hemisphere 84
    Western Pacific 14
    North Atlantic 10.7
    Eastern Pacific 39
    Southern Hemisphere 196 [2009-2010]

    # 1980-2009 Climatology

    BASIN NORMAL YEARLY ACE** NORMAL YEAR TO DATE
    Northern Hemisphere 569 156
    Western North Pacific 310 87
    North Atlantic 106 10
    Eastern Pacific 132 50
    Southern Hemisphere 204 —

    Notes – Southern Hemisphere total for 2010 includes cyclones from October 2009 – April 2010.

  16. stevengoddard says:
    August 8, 2010 at 8:31 pm

    Global warming makes hurricanes stronger and weaker. More common and less common. Sometimes global warming makes them unchanged.

    Imagine the Warmists trying to sell “fewer intense hurricanes” or “fewer intense tropical cyclones”?
    —————
    IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

    Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and Typhoons)
    “Results from embedded high-resolution models and global models, ranging in grid spacing from 100 km to 9 km, project a likely increase of peak wind intensities and notably, where analysed, increased near-storm precipitation in future tropical cyclones. Most recent published modelling studies investigating tropical storm frequency simulate a decrease in the overall number of storms, though there is less confidence in these projections and in the projected decrease of relatively weak storms in most basins, with an increase in the numbers of the most intense tropical cyclones. ”

    Mid-latitude Storms
    Model projections show fewer mid-latitude storms averaged over each hemisphere, associated with the poleward shift of the storm tracks that is particularly notable in the Southern Hemisphere, with lower central pressures for these poleward-shifted storms. The increased wind speeds result in more extreme wave heights in those regions.

    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-es-13-tropical-cyclones.html

  17. I’m too busy drafting stock exchange announcements and editing the latest AIG News issue to get too involved in this suggestion, but it might be useful for one of the folks reading here to plot sunspot numbers versus cyclone activity re above top graph over the period good data exists.

    The physics behind this is based on the idea that cyclones/hurricanes etc could be physical phenomena within the gaseous film coating the earth as a result of electric currents entering in/out of the Earth’s equatorial regions via the Van Allen belts.

    If the solar variation, as indicated by the proxy of sunspots, is due to fluctuating electric currents entering into the solar system, then peturbations within the system should show some correlation with the sunspots and a time lag as well.

    So low solar activity as proxied by sunspots should show correlation with tropical cyclones/hurricane activity/intensity if the latter are due to, hitherto poorly understood, electro dynamics of the earth system. Both phenomena are effects of a common underling cause.

    Just a thought.

  18. PJB says:
    August 8, 2010 at 8:19 pm
    The change over from El Nino to La Nina are usually reasonably above average years for hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.
    This year, shear still appears to be a problem with the presence of TUTTs (tropical upper tropospheric troughs) but as JB says, they will be lifting out soon, the Azore and Bermuda highs will solidify and the Cape Verde breeding ground will start to produce.

    There appears to be a trap that everyone is falling into which is pattern matching within the period of our own experience e.g. CAGW’s ‘since records began’ normally means ‘since satellite records began’. Or within the period of historic measurements that apply e.g. hurricane records going back 100 years or so. Even these hurricane recordings are limited prior to satellites and population of the shores of the southern US States.

    We may now be moving into a climate shift in the chaotic ocean/atmosphere system and reliance on ‘the Azores and Bermuda highs’ solidifying as they did in the past may be unwise. The jet-stream does not appear to be behaving in a way that imbues confidence in the future weather patterns just repeating what they have done over the last fifty years or even a century.

  19. @richard holle

    Thanks for your planetary predictions. The second best laugh since Steven Mosher’s Mannish contribution on CA.

    And they say that Americans can’t do satire!

    LA UK

  20. Richard Holle says: (August 9, 2010 at 1:01 am )

    I saved your prediction from early July (don’t have the thread link), so far you are on the money. Since you are precise in your times it will be easy to check for continued accuracy. If you nail the rest of August and September, I’m with you all the way.

  21. pat says:
    August 8, 2010 at 9:53 pm
    “… “If hurricanes were taxed, there would be less.”…”

    Very true. So the question is, how do you tax a hurricane? I suggest a withholding income tax would be most appropriate. This is readily implemented – simply cover 22% of the sea surface with plastic. ;-)

  22. Even NASA likes the IPCC scenarios / forecasts / Nintendo simulations :o)
    —–
    Global Climate Change: Recent Impacts
    Phenomena – Increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in North Atlantic (since 1970)

    Likelihood that trend occurred in late 20th century – Likely in some regions
    —–
    Global Climate Change: Future Trends
    Phenomena – Increase in tropical cyclone intensity

    Likelihood of trend – Likely to occur
    —–
    These guys are 95+ certain about man being to blame for most of the 20th century warming. How LIKELY is that? ;O)

  23. Richard Holle says:
    August 9, 2010 at 1:01 am

    I have said it before and I’ll say it again;
    That is an effect from the timing of the synod conjunctions with the outer planets, Saturn on March the 22nd 2010, brought in a nice load of heavy rain, tornadoes and flash floods globally….

    MODS: I thought WUWT didn’t allow astrology. ;O(

    [Valid point. The post did not specifically refer to astrology, but credible citations would be appreciated. – MOD]

  24. Richard Holle says:
    August 9, 2010 at 1:01 am

    “They (the bigger storms) are waiting till the ionic discharge of the global atmosphere that happens post synod conjunctions, expect the stronger storms to start on the 20th of August 2010, and run to 28th of August, 2010, and start up again September 21st and run through end of the month, with some after thoughts due to continued further discharges, coinciding with the lunar declinational culmination angle peaks, both North and South.”

    “Given also that there will be no outer planet assisted forced intrusions of warm moist tropical air masses, during the next several Northern winters, expect cold and blustery to be the norm for a while (about 15 to 20 more years.)”

    “outer planet assisted forced intrusions of warm moist tropical air masses” — this is a linear and necessary or non-linear but contributing condition of strong hurricanes?

    One way or the other, its quite a claim and prediction.

  25. stevengoddard says:
    August 8, 2010 at 8:31 pm
    Global warming makes hurricanes stronger and weaker. More common and less common. Sometimes global warming makes them unchanged.

    People used to revere gods – now they worship CO2 and government scientists. Zeus vs. Hansen.
    ——-Reply:
    Or more to the point, with CO2 increasing about 100 ppm in the past several decades, has H2O increased more than 100 ppm in the atmosphere over the same period? (I’m betting nobody has a clue.) That’s a critical question since water is a superior GHG compared to carbon dioxide.

  26. Richard Holle says:
    August 9, 2010 at 5:42 am
    What you quote is the detailed explanation of 19th century Birkeland´s Terrella experiment, confirmed by Nasa:
    First Global Connection Between Earth And Space Weather Found
    09.12.06 http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2006/space_weather_link.html
    Weather on Earth has a surprising connection to space weather occurring high in the electrically-charged upper atmosphere, known as the ionosphere, according to new results from NASA satellites.

    What this means is, the earth acting as a CATHODE it is subjected to a variable current from the Sun, which when strong makes the jet stream get closer to the poles, while when low jet streams will migrate equator ward.

  27. When ever I read a climate related paper or article that drifts from trying to resolve the intricate relationships of our climate, into trying to predict events in other hugely complex disciplines (like hurricane forecasts, hydrology, or agricultural production) – my interest wanes very quickly.

  28. No one wishes bad things to happen due to tropical storms, but here in W MD, significant late-summer, early-fall precip often comes from such systems (and can save crops & pastures to some extent). Without them developing, it is often bone-dry here during this period — last year was the perfect example.

  29. An easterly QBO reduces hurricane numbers, but not intensity.

    Saharan dust storms limit Atlantic cyclone activity;
    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=44758

    The big changes from one year to the next, are largely due to whether a given year has warming spurts in the right months, to provide conditions that are condusive to cyclone formation.

    This Autumn has some very strong solar triggers for cyclone activity occurring right at peak season around the equinox, so I am expecting some intense events this fall.
    My longest look-back period (1831) suggests a large Caribbean hit in September.

  30. Mother Nature has a quirky sense of humor. Even when she’s trending down, she can knock you for a loop on occasion. Low activity vis-a-vis previous years does not mean no activity. Keep yer storm shutters handy and yer gas tank full!

  31. stevengoddard says:
    August 8, 2010 at 10:42 pm
    savethesharks

    I didn’t say the SSTs were below normal. Where did you get that from?

    ===============================

    I misread. Sorry about that. You did say “not much above normal”. That first map, though, was confusing to look at. It shows a large area which, now that I look at it must be an upwelling from Colin.

  32. Bastardi posts this on his Pro Accuweather blog this AM:

    “GLOBAL ACE AT RECORD LOW, BUT IS A RECORD HIGH ATLANTIC ACE ON THE WAY IN SEP OR OCT.”

    “Interesting question. The GFS now is seeing what is coming… not in the details, but in the overall pattern with 2, arguably 3 storms on it on day 16. Dont trust the positions, but trust the idea this is going to roar to life. Keep in mind, the southeast Pacific basin, which should be well below normal the rest of the season, had a record high June burst. This was because it warms first and the N American continent was cool enough to focus upward motion there while the water was warmer relative to averages. What do you think is going to happen once cool air gets into the pattern, or the land based normals fall. That is when the MJO will be able to crank well into the octants associated with real trouble bursting and I fully expect that to be the case. You can see the shift in the anomaly pattern about to occur.”

  33. I trust that an independent body names the storms, otherwise it’s Col. Sanders looking after our chickens. I recall in 2006 they were desperately reporting water spouts and light rain.

  34. The earth is a heat engine. Hurricanes are driven by differences in temperature between the equatorial Atlantic and the North Atlantic.

    The North Atlantic has well above normal SSTs, so it kinda makes sense that this season might not be quite as intense as the experts are forecasting.

  35. Richard Holle says:
    August 9, 2010 at 5:42 am
    Jimbo says:
    August 9, 2010 at 4:58 am

    “MODS: I thought WUWT didn’t allow astrology. ;O(“”
    Reply Applied physics not astrology see ;
    http://research.aerology.com/aerology-analog-weather-forecasting-method/

    Very interesting article Richard; Aerology Analog Forecasting Method. Is this your work or the basis for the cycles you’re discussing?

    see also:
    Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA
    Vol. 94, pp. 8329–8334, August 1997
    Colloquium Paper
    Spectrum of 100-kyr glacial cycle: Orbital inclination, not eccentricity
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC33747/pdf/pq008329.pdf

    But, as far as I can tell, Extraterrestrial Accretion has been eliminated as the Climate Change driver.

  36. Jean Parisot says:
    August 9, 2010 at 6:21 am
    When ever I read a climate related paper or article that drifts from trying to resolve the intricate relationships of our climate, into trying to predict events in other hugely complex disciplines (like hurricane forecasts, hydrology, or agricultural production) – my interest wanes very quickly.

    This is the problem. Their papers are stuffed full of caveats yet they make predictions about where the climate will be at the end of this century.

  37. Richard Holle says:
    August 9, 2010 at 5:42 am
    Reply Applied physics not astrology
    Your excellent article shows that astrology has now a justification, which is invalid if only considered a “flintstones’ universe” where only gravity among “heaven pebbles” works.

  38. For hurricane forecasts, the pre-and post-1975 stats are most important for the AGW hypotheses – those of at least the pre- and post-1988, when we were told of impending doom. Do you have a graph of those?

  39. stevengoddard says:
    August 9, 2010 at 7:18 am

    The earth is a heat engine. Hurricanes are driven by differences in temperature between the equatorial Atlantic and the North Atlantic.

    The North Atlantic has well above normal SSTs, so it kinda makes sense that this season might not be quite as intense as the experts are forecasting.

    =========================================

    I see what you are driving at.

    But I think what Gray, Bastardi, NOAA, FSU and others are driving at is the above normal SST which provide the fuel for the storms.

    The cooling in the Pacific, due to the cold PDO and the reversal of El Nino, displaces the area of upward motion to the Atlantic (and westward to the Indian Ocean region, hence the horrific floods there).

    So abnormally above normal SSTs for the North Atlantic (from the warm AMO) + upward motion + the removal of the tropical upper tropospheric troughs and voila.

    You can certainly see from the North Atlantic Water Vapor Loop the Cape Verde train at least trying to get organized, and a couple of anticyclonic spins above a couple of the waves in lower left hand of picture, hinting of some high pressure in the upper levels and a developing Cape Verde season.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

    As one who lives on one of the most vulnerable and populated sections of the East Coast, I hope your instincts are correct.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  40. stevengoddard says:
    August 9, 2010 at 6:14 am
    RockyRoad

    H2O varies by by tens of thousands ppm from one day to the next. Sometimes from one minute to the next.
    ———-Reply:
    Exactly. So is the reason some people are stuck on CO2 is because it is much, much easier to track? Seems like it should be relegated to a minor role as we concentrate our efforts on a better understanding of H2O. (Same reason I like to hunt deer far more than elk–the deer are a much easier target. Of course, they’re not as good to eat.)

  41. John from CA says:
    August 9, 2010 at 7:49 am

    “”Very interesting article Richard; Aerology Analog Forecasting Method. Is this your work or the basis for the cycles you’re discussing?””

    This link is the result of 30 years of my work, so yes and yes, there is other supporting research quoted on the site, the daily forecasts presented on the National and local pages were forecast 30 months ago, and continue till January of 2014.

    This is an analog forecast method very similar to what Ulric Lyons and Piers Corbin use with look backs as they call them, but with out the solar activity they have added in. The outer planet influences don’t show up in the daily forecasts, because they are out of phase with the repeating inner planet and lunar declinational patterns. This is a beta product and has been very helpful in the further development of concepts to include the solar and outer planet influences by deriving algorithms, to be added to the program to increase the accuracy of future development releases .

  42. Jean Parisot says:
    August 9, 2010 at 6:21 am
    “When ever I read a climate related paper or article that drifts from trying to resolve the intricate relationships of our climate, into trying to predict events in other hugely complex disciplines (like hurricane forecasts, hydrology, or agricultural production) – my interest wanes very quickly.”

    They are all intercorrelated, whether climate or waether, with none of the ASSUMED CAUSAL independent variables known for the future so time series models, estimates and conjectures are used in all cases. I read to learn but have little faith in any of the theories or predictions of what will happen next. It gets interesting when predictions start to come true, which rarely occurs and unless they continue to come true can be considered coincidence.

  43. Richard Holle says:
    August 9, 2010 at 8:30 am

    “This link is the result of 30 years of my work, so yes and yes, there is other supporting research quoted on the site, the daily forecasts presented on the National and local pages were forecast 30 months ago, and continue till January of 2014.”

    Very exciting work Richard, I’m looking forward to reviewing the other web pages.

    Congrats,
    John from CA

  44. My understanding is that La Nina in the presence of a warm equatorial Atlantic produces the temperature/pressure differences and wind shear that spawn hurricanes into the Gulf. Otherwise, during El Nino and a warm Atlantic the hurricanes become northeasters, hitting as far north as Main, especially in the case of negative Arctic Oscillations, which throws cold air South, essentially canceling the calming affect of El Nino’s and setting up the necessary wind shear.

  45. Don’t get your “shorts in a knot” Reed Cory says [foolishly] on August 9, 2010 at 9:47 am.
    “…who is funding your research–Exxon or BP? Inquiring minds want to know.”

    from Richard Holle’s website:
    About Aerology [air tides]
    http://www.aerology.com/about.aspx

    “Currently we provide these forecasts for precipitation, high temperatures, low temperatures, snowfall and snow on ground in the contiguous United States. As funding becomes available, we would like to expand our forecasting methods and maps to outside the contiguous United States. In addition to locations, we would also like to expand the forecasting technique to other natural disasters such as hail, tornadoes, and other severe weather. We would also be interested in requests from our users, if you have a suggestion of additional products you would be interested in please contact us.”

    see and read The Process

    also please see:
    The Research tab on the sidebar; http://research.aerology.com/

  46. Reed Coray says:
    August 9, 2010 at 9:47 am

    Richard Holle, who is funding your research–Exxon or BP? Inquiring minds want to know.
    Reply;
    Over the years I have spent up to 25% of my hourly wages working as a production CNC machinist on this project, I have had help from my daughter who does the web site for me, and a programmer she works with freelance, did the map generation data automation process, at a reduced rate as a favor.

  47. The link below is one of the better links I use for looking at global SST’s. Still pretty good positive anomalies across the Tropical Atlantic I’m not so sure I agree with the above analysis. Granted SST’s have cooled compared to the record setting April through June, but they are still plenty warm for increased tropical activity. The biggest hindrance so far has been the elevated vertical wind shear that has plagued the season so far. The second half of August through the end of October should be very busy though. Take a year like 2007 (our last La Nina) where there were only 3 named storms through the first week of August. From August 13th through the end of the season and even into December there were 12 more named storms.

    Bottom line, there is still plenty of time for an above normal season.

    http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

  48. Richard Holle says:
    August 9, 2010 at 10:44 am

    “Over the years I have spent up to 25% of my hourly wages working as a production CNC machinist on this project, …”

    I don’t want to jump to conclusions but I think I’ve (and possibly Anthony) died and gone to heaven.

    CNC on an Aerology project [defined as a branch of meteorology involving observation and research of the atmosphere by means of balloons, radiosondes, etc] implies Real World [not heat Island] data.

    I noticed the reference to NOAA TD3200 cooperative summary data on your “About” page but my fingers are crossed the baseline is more.

  49. PS If the baseline produces an accurate display of past events, can the program identify potentially false readings in other forecast models and, if so, within what level of accuracy?

  50. stevengoddard says:
    Venison is awful. Elk is a delicacy.
    ———–
    Depends what they graze on—willow buds good, coniferous buds bad. I prefer moose and caribou. Not many around my neighbourhood, tho’.

  51. John from CA says:
    August 9, 2010 at 11:24 am
    Reply;
    The maps produced are set to use medium smoothing in the nearest neighbor method of producing the temperature contour maps with 32 data points selected for the averaging, with 10 degree contour line increments.

    When I processed the maps with 8 data points, (minimum smoothing) and 1 degree increment contour lines there appears circles of the heat islands, and cooler regions around large lakes. The net effect was way too busy for easy public consumption, so I went to medium smoothing, but could show local temp extremes in the past data as well as the composite. I don’t know about checking other forecast techniques, I am still trying to work the outer planet influence bugs out of this one.

  52. When I look at the cyclone data and do an eyeball Fourier decomposition I get a strong component at about 6 -11 year periodicity. Didn’t anyone else notice this!? Doesn’t this say the sun drives just about everything?

  53. savethesharks says: “Also, the SST area that shows below normal per the map Steve shows is not really the tropical cyclone breeding ground for the North Atlantic.”

    The SSTs for the tropical North Atlantic are far from normal on the map that Steve Goddard cropped. Check the scale on it. Unisys uses light blues from -0.5 to +1.0, so they can be misleading. Tropical Atlantic SST anomalies reached a new high this year.

    Some of that is from the 2009/10 El Nino.

    And some of that high results from the upward shift in the South Atlantic SST anomalies in 2009/10 after almost fifteen years of being flat:

    Recall that the heat is transported from the high latitudes to the tropics in the South Atlantic (the only ocean basin that works that way), and then into the North Atlantic.

    That shift in the South Atlantic SST anomalies is discussed in this post:
    http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/05/200910-warming-of-south-atlantic.html

  54. Pete says: “The link below is one of the better links I use for looking at global SST’s.”

    The NOAA/NESDIS SST data you linked is prepared by NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch division. It’s biased by the use of only nighttime satellite data.

    “Nighttime-only satellite SST observations are used to eliminate diel variation caused by solar heating at the sea surface (primarily at the “skin” interface, 10-20 um) during the day and to avoid contamination from solar glare. Compared with daytime SST and day-night blended SST, nighttime SST provides more conservative and stable estimate of thermal stress conducive to coral bleaching.”

    Discussed that here:
    http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/09/note-about-sst-anomaly-maps.html

    But yes, as I noted to savethesharks above, tropical Atlantic SST anomalies are well above normal:

  55. The recent near two-degree rise (in 12 months) in tropical Atlantic SST anomalies is interesting. A series of higher highs are plainly visible on Bob’s chart. One would think that the ACE Index would be off the charts now if there was a strong correlation. Instead, one can see a series of lower highs and lower lows (from 1990 until present). Not sure what to make of this.

  56. I apologize. I meant the question Richard Holle, who is funding your research–Exxon or BP? to be tongue-in-cheek. However, in today’s world of nonsensical or irrelevant comments coming from the AGW community, I should have realized that any comment/question, no matter how silly, must be taken seriously by us skeptics because it could have been asked by a warmist.

  57. Reed Coray says:
    August 9, 2010 at 8:00 pm

    Reply; I got it, but there are lots of trolls, and newbies coming in here all the time, and I am sure lots of constant lurkers, are the majority of viewers.

    I think it best to keep things as clearly stated as possible, and not leave oneself open to partial quote mining, just to keep the clutter down so the message is clearer.

  58. Sean Peake says:
    August 9, 2010 at 11:37 am
    stevengoddard says:
    Venison is awful. Elk is a delicacy.
    ———–
    Depends what they graze on—willow buds good, coniferous buds bad. I prefer moose and caribou. Not many around my neighbourhood, tho’.

    Depends on if they are shot dead or run two miles as well.

  59. #
    #
    Sean Peake says:
    August 9, 2010 at 11:37 am

    stevengoddard says:
    Venison is awful. Elk is a delicacy.
    ———–
    Depends what they graze on—willow buds good, coniferous buds bad. I prefer moose and caribou. Not many around my neighbourhood, tho’.

    If anyone wins the moose lottery for whatever management unit it is that includes Mt Cardigan in New Hampshire, look me up – we have moose and I don’t hunt.

  60. Well, NorthWest Pacific (NWP) inactivity is the background of this year’s worldwide inactivity. In the case of NWP, exceptionally strong sub-tropical ringe (STR) have hindered the formation of disturbance even in very low latitude ( because around 70-80% of NWP’s tropical cyclone are formed in monsoon trough, and super strong STR have make it inactivated ), resulting only 5 numbered storm ( max wind reached F6 ) by Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, three of them ( max wind reached F8 ) named by Japan Meteorological Agency, and only 2 have been considered reaching a typhoon strength when we are used to see around 5-8 typhoons already at this point of the season, deafening silence in NWP’s history.

    One more point should be noted in NWP’s condition, the year following El Nino are supposed to have the STR weak and East of its normal position so more storms can form in Central North Pacific or the Eastern end of the NWP and we may see 01C or 02C, this year, the STR is so strong that there is neither a tropical cyclone formed in Central North Pacific, nor a single tropical cyclone formed East of 145E.

    Results followed, NWP tropical cyclone season have been bored to death not because every cyclone end its life on the sea, but simply no cyclone at all thanks to a STR strength unseen in at least 20 years.

  61. One more point to note, NWP is the most important tropical cyclone formation basin in the world, it alone account for 30% of world’s activity, so if this site have been weak in capturing NWP’s condition and mostly focused on the area around USA, I am very much afraid that WUWT might not be global enough in this particular issue.

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