Our one stop shopping Sea Ice Page has quickly become a world wide favorite, and Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather uses some of the graphics offered there.
To watch the AccuWeather broadcast go to:
http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj
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Steve Goddard writes that so far, “steady as a rock” and offers some interesting analysis:
At the beginning of June, I observed that the PIPS ice distribution in 2010 was very similar to 2006. The distributions were nearly identical, with 2010 average thickness a little lower than 2006.
Can we find another year with similar ice distribution as 2010? I can see Russian ice in my Windows. Note in the graph below that 2010 is very similar to 2006. 2006 had the highest minimum (and smallest maximum) in the DMI record. Like 2010, the ice was compressed and thick in 2006. Conclusion : Should we expect a nice recovery this summer due to the thicker ice? You bet ya.
Since then we have read seemingly endless hysterics by Joe Romm and government sources about record melt rates, and how clueless and ignorant my analysis has been. So let’s look at what has actually happened since June 1. The graph below shows JAXA extent since June 1 for 2006 and 2010.
Basically, they are two parallel lines. 2010 has tracked 2006 quite closely – just as PIPS said they should. There have been no major diversions from the pattern this summer. Summer 2010 has been almost a straight line. Apparently some bloggers “can’t see the forest for the trees.”
In the DMI record, 2010 has passed every year except 2005 and 2006. The only real question now is – will 2010 end up in the #2 or #3 spot?
Closeup below:
At the end of May, Mark Serreze and Joe Romm had a different take for 2010:
“Could we break another record this year? I think it’s quite possible,” said Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo.
We are in the fourth quarter of the 2010 game. The score right now is :
Breathtakingly Ignorant* WUWT – 1
Experts – 0
Will the peer reviewed experts score at the last minute? What do you think?
* A term coined by Dr. Mark Serrezze
Bastardi and Goddard, go go go!!!!
We are currently in a weird cool phase of the PDO (typically described as being cool off the west coast of Washington, Oregon, and Northern California, and warm in the central area and western edge – IE Japan- of the ocean). The difference is that the western part of the northern Pacific are not all that warm and the central part is not all that big. Japan’s coast is experiencing cool waters, not the typical warm waters of a cool PDO. I think that is because we recently came out of a moderate La Nina before going into El Nino. In other words we were not in extended neutral prior to the El Nino. There is left over cold waters in the western Pacific with the warm central area not that big, so we will not have as much moisture.
So I think we will see very cold temperatures due to the dryer air coming in from the Pacific in the NH fall and winter. If the NAO goes cold and the AO goes negative, we could all be in for bitterly cold, dry conditions that build up huge amounts of ice in rivers, lakes, and sea areas, coast to coast along the upper North American continent. Will this extreme setting happen? Don’t know. But I am fairly confident we will be colder than average, with average precip to dryer conditions in the NH. I don’t consider solar events to have much at all to do with this.
Icarus
Walt Meier has told me that Arctic ice in the early 1980s was unusually extensive. So the trend since 1980 is necessarily downwards.
Icarus, I believe that weather pattern variations from natural sources have both long and short term trends (daily; weekly – IE less than 4 weeks plus or minus; monthly – IE less than 1 year plus or minus; yearly – plus or minus a month or two; decadal – IE 10 years plus or minus, and multi-decadal – IE more than 10 years and up to 80 years plus or minus) without considering CO2 increases. These variations and oscillations come from a variety of potentially interacting and teleconnecting natural oceanic and atmospheric conditions.
Your graphs do not provide this information. Your graphs are data mathematically subjected to a long term statistical linear trend algorithm. That alone does not provide information, it is only another way of looking at data. Your graphs are data rich, information poor. Your graphs would be much improved if you would correlate conditions on the ground (IE the short and long term weather pattern variations mentioned above) for each one of these up ticks and downturns and to the short and long term trends your statistical analysis is showing. This information exists. If you can show that conditions on the ground have no correlation to your data points, you have a leg to stand on (only one mind you). Currently, without reasonable excluding CO2 mechanisms, you have no legs to stand on in presenting your graphs as a CO2 argument.
John Trigge
You are imagining the cold. Our top scientists say that this is the hottest year ever.
Icarus didn’t you look at the Bastardi video he explained perfectly why the arctic is shrinking and the antarctic is expanding. the overall sea ice extent is almost the same as 30 years ago.
“”” stevengoddard says:
August 9, 2010 at 12:57 pm
George E. Smith
Your post reminded me of ….
We don’t need no education
We don’t need no thought control
No dark sarcasm in the class room
Teachers leave those kids alone
Hey, teachers! Leave those kids alone! “””
Well Steve we can’t have all those children trying to think for themselves; we have a party line that we have to get across to them.
I don’t know how your are making up your ice numbers Steve; but I might want you to make up some Lottery numbers for me !
“”” stevengoddard says:
August 9, 2010 at 1:38 pm
Icarus
Walt Meier has told me that Arctic ice in the early 1980s was unusually extensive. So the trend since 1980 is necessarily downwards. “””
Steve; I always had a feeling that those beautiful Arctic Ice photographs from 1979; that 2007 was always compared to, were not “on average” but were a snapshot of an unusual ice advance. Nice for Walt Meier to more or less confirm that.
Dave Springer says:
August 9, 2010 at 9:43 am
The new tree hugger is the ice hugger.
—————————————————
LOL! 😎
From: Icarus on August 9, 2010 at 1:23 pm
Well, he might agree it is errant nonsense, or maybe arrogant nonsense…
You said the Arctic ice appears to be declining consistently in every calendar month. For consistency, I would expect for any given month that there would be less ice than the previous year. I showed you a month where it did not decline, thus consistency does not exist.
Meanwhile you’re arguing consistency while pointing to trend lines.
Avoid managing the money of other people. If you promised a consistent return on investment every month, then came a month when your customers lost money, and you argued it was still a consistent return every month as the long term trend was still positive… Numerous law enforcement agents may want to have a word with you.
BTW, was that the best you could do? A link to an encrypted page, where there are some NSIDC thumbnails without links to the big graphs, and no proper links to or explanations of those percent decline numbers?
Ice concentration gives the percentage of any area covered by ice. Broken-up ice obviously has a lower volume than continuous ice of the same thickness.
Steve’s calculations ignore ice concentration and so give incorrect volumes, as well as average thicknesses. Only by including concentration do you get results consistent with the volumes published by the PIPS team.
kadaka (KD Knoebel): Can you demonstrate that any of those 12 cited graphs show data that is not consistent with a declining trend in Arctic sea ice extent?
I’m hurt. I thought that was not a bad effort for a few minutes’ work, done in a hurry after reading this post. Thanks for the tip though – you’re right, I should link the thumbnails to the full size graphs.
Steven Goddard:
Thanks for the pointer about Walter Meier (I hadn’t heard of him before). Here is the abstract of a 2007 paper he co-authored:
Whither Arctic sea ice? A clear signal of decline regionally, seasonally and extending beyond the satellite record
Authors: Meier, Walter N.; Stroeve, Julienne; Fetterer, Florence
Source: Annals of Glaciology, Volume 46, Number 1, October 2007 , pp. 428-434(7)
Publisher: International Glaciological Society
That doesn’t really sound to me like we’re seeing a “downwards trend from the unusually high ice conditions of the early 1980s”.
Pamela Gray: You make a fair point, climate is a lot more complicated than a few points on a graph, but nevertheless I think Arctic sea ice extent must give us at least *some* indication of long-term climate in the region, and since a number of previous contributors were talking of a ‘recovery’ it seemed reasonable to ask where there was any sign of such a recovery in the ice extent data. From what I can tell, there isn’t one. Given the scale of year-to-year variations I think it would probably take at least 15 years and probably more for any significant deviation from the long-term decline to become clear.
Icarus
You must look beyond the satellite record in order to put the current arctic ice conditions into context.
Arctic ice melt is by no means a modern trait and the NSIDC and IPCC seem reluctant to accept the concept of natural cycles of cooling and warming. The start of Satellite measuring in 1979 coincided with something approaching peak ice, following a extended cooling period, which is why they always speak of subsequent decline; History suggests you should look at a much longer time scale than thirty years which will put the modern era into its proper context..
Link 1 Ice extent maximum- Depends if you are talking winter or summer but ‘decline’ starts around 1976/9 from a high point.
http://geology.com/articles/northwest-passage.shtml
Link 2 This also shows the same;
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.area.jpg
Link 3 The IPCC report confirms this p351/2 figures 4.8 4.9 4.10
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter4.pdf
Link 4 The concerns over ‘global cooling’ in the 70’s which caused the arctic ice peak did have some basis in fact. There were a series of low temperatures in many arctic areas during the 70’s which ice would have corresponded to by growing.
http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Scientific/Arctic.htm
Link 5 From the CIA further confirmation of the cold period during this time.
http://www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf
As the IPCC show, the start of the satellite period therefore roughly coincided with a period of peak ice-so it is not at all surprising that as part of its natural cycle it should subsequently decline.
Link 6: The IPCC are not very good at their historic reconstructions and generally view actual observations as ‘anecdotal.’ They seem to believe that history did not start before 1979. My article examines the arctic melting in the period 1810-1860 -see notes at bottom of article with additional references.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/20/historic-variation-in-arctic-ice/#comments
Link 7: The next two links are good studies showing the arctic melting from the 1920’s to 1940’s; The first shows a warm period during the 1930s and 1940s with temperatures as high as those of today ftp://ftp.whoi.edu/pub/users/mtimmermans/ArcticSymposiumTalks/Smolyanitsky.pdf
Link 8: The second link illustrates reduced sea ice extent during this period, which only later returned to the high levels measured at the start of the latest retreating cycle in 1979 (when satellite measurements started).
http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/Chylek/greenland_warming.html
Link 9: The melting in the period 1920-1940 is very well documented.
Expeditions to the arctic to view the melting ice became the equivalent of todays celebrity jaunts to the area. The most famous were those mounted by Bob Bartlett on the Morrissey. I have carried extracts from his diary before-amongst the observation are a description of a mile wide face of a glacier falling in to the sea. There are pathe news reels of his voyages dating from the era, as well as books on the subject. Here is a bibliography of material relating to him. The diaries are of particlar interest.
http://www.nlpubliclibraries.ca/nlcollection/pdf/guides/NL_Collection_Guide_11.pdf
Link 10 Bernaerts, A. (2007). Can the “Big Warming” at Spitsbergen from 1918 to 1940 be explained? PACON 2007 Proceedings 325-337.
http://www.arctic-heats-up.com/pdf/Submitted_conference_paper.pdf
Link 11 This comes from contemporary 1922 newspaper reports showing Arctic ice melting in 1922
http://www.examiner.com/x-32936-Seminole-County-Environmental-News-Examiner~y2010m3d2-Arctic-Ocean-is-warming-icebergs-growing-scarcer-reports-Washington-Post
i
Link 12 Apparent warming in 1969 Arctic
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/nyt_arctic_77442757.pdf
Link 13 This shows a variety of arctic warming events over the last 150 years
http://www.examiner.com/x-32936-Seminole-County-Environmental-News-Examiner~y2010m3d2-Arctic-Ocean-is-warming-icebergs-growing-scarcer-reports-Washington-Post
Link 14: Before we get to the Vikings let’s look at another Arctic culture that thrived 1000 years before them;
From the Eskimo Times Monday, Mar. 17, 1941
“The corner of Alaska nearest Siberia was probably man’s first threshold to the Western Hemisphere. So for years archeologists have dug there for a clue to America’s prehistoric past. Until last year, all the finds were obviously Eskimo. Then Anthropologists Froelich G. Rainey of the University of Alaska and two collaborators struck the remains of a town, of inciedible size and mysterious culture. Last week in Natural History Professor Rainey, still somewhat amazed, described this lost Arctic city.
It lies at Ipiutak on Point Hope, a bleak sandspit in the Arctic Ocean, where no trees and little grass survive endless gales at 30° below zero. But where houses lay more than 2,000 years ago, underlying refuse makes grass and moss grow greener. The scientists could easily discern traces of long avenues and hundreds of dwelling sites. A mile long, a quarter-mile wide, this ruined city was perhaps as big as any in Alaska today (biggest: Juneau, pop. 5,700).
On the Arctic coast today an Eskimo village of even 250 folk can catch scarcely enough seals, whales, caribou to live on. What these ancient Alaskans ate is all the more puzzling because they seem to have lacked such Arctic weapons as the Eskimo harpoon.
Yet they had enough leisure to make many purely artistic objects, some of no recognizable use. Their carvings are vaguely akin to Eskimo work but so sophisticated and elaborate as to indicate a relation with some centre of advanced culture — perhaps Japan or southern Siberia —certainly older than the Aztec or Mayan.
This link leads to the Academy of science report of the same year regarding the Ipiutak culture described above
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1078291
Link 15 A mention for the Vikings at last
“…The settlers found that the area to the north of the Western Settlement, called the Nordseta, was good for hunting, fishing and gathering driftwood. A stone inscribed with runes has been found telling that in 1333, three Greenlanders wintered on the island of Kingigtorssuaq just below 73 degrees north. There is also evidence of voyages to the Canadian arctic. Two cairns have been discovered in Jones Sound above 76 degrees North and two more have been found on Washington Irving Island at 79 degrees north….” http://www.mnsu.edu/emuseum/prehistory/vikings/Greenland.html
This is situated on Eastern ellesmere island-Map here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Canada_geopolitical_map_trim.jpg
Link 16 This from the late John Daly has numerous references to previous periods of arctic warming.
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
Link 17 We seem to have known more about dispersal of ice by wind and currents 150 years ago than we do now, factors which have a profound efect on extent, area, and melting. Many books date from the scientific expeditions mounted since 1820 that examined the ‘unprecdented ice melt in the arctic reported to the Royal Sociery. This book dates from 1870
http://www.archive.org/stream/arcticgeographye00roya#page/28/mode/2up
Certain of us seem reluctant to learn the lessons of history-in this case that there are periods of melting and refreeze of the Arctic area that appear to follow a roughly 60/70 year cycle. The satellite record coincided with one of the High spots of Arctic ice following a long cool period and we may or may not be at the low point in the cycle-that will become clearer over the next five years.
Tonyb
The term PDO is being slung around as though all know it as well as toilet paper. As it is not a simple number, say like an average of sea surface temperature readings, it may be time for a bit of reading. Try:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/04/misunderstandings-about-pdo-revised.html
Or this one:
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
Or this one:
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/PDO.htm
Quiz at 11:00.
I note that the Antarctic anomaly is positive and now larger than the Arctic negative anomaly. So total polar ice is back to average across the globe.
My guess is that the recent Arctic melts has more to do with a couple of warm winters and less snow, allowing an earlier detachment from land masses. This allowed the wind to play havoc in 2007. The recovery takes longer despite a return to normal temperatures/snow, because the arctic sheets are still detaching from landmasses during the melt season. This allows weather factors to cause compaction or drifting into warmer waters.
As the sheet recovers in thickness, the detachment from landmasses will be further delayed, until the sheet no longer is at risk from weather events. This is what has led to recent large oscillations between summer and winter extents. Assuming a recovery continues, this oscillation will diminish.
You bet ya.
It’s “Ya, you bet cha, eh” for the Yooper in everyone.
The only real question now is – will 2010 end up in the #2 or #3 spot?
I going with #2! I thought Texas could beat USC in the 2006 Rose Bowl too! 🙂
cross 2005 in DMi here:
http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/466/icecover20108910.png
cross 2005 in JAXA here:
http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/3798/amsreseaiceextentl8810.png
Tom P
PIPS factors concentration into their thickness maps.
Be a big boy and admit that I got it right.
“Could we break another record this year? I think it’s quite possible,” said Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo.
With his short term prediction being this wrong there’s no reason to believe his long term prediction of the “death spiral”.
Reputation means a lot in this world. It seems to mean absolutely nothing in the ‘global warming’ world.
The vulnerable area for crossing to #2
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/1073/dmicloseupaug82010.jpg
Breathtakingly Ignorant* WUWT – 1
Experts – 0
“An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less, until eventually he knows everything about nothing.”
~unknown
Breathtakingly Ignorant* WUWT – 1
Experts – 0
“An expert is someone who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.”
~unknown
Breathtakingly Ignorant* WUWT – 1
Experts – 0
“Expert: Someone who brings confusion to simplicity”
~Gregory Nunn