Our one stop shopping Sea Ice Page has quickly become a world wide favorite, and Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather uses some of the graphics offered there.
To watch the AccuWeather broadcast go to:
http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj
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Steve Goddard writes that so far, “steady as a rock” and offers some interesting analysis:
At the beginning of June, I observed that the PIPS ice distribution in 2010 was very similar to 2006. The distributions were nearly identical, with 2010 average thickness a little lower than 2006.
Can we find another year with similar ice distribution as 2010? I can see Russian ice in my Windows. Note in the graph below that 2010 is very similar to 2006. 2006 had the highest minimum (and smallest maximum) in the DMI record. Like 2010, the ice was compressed and thick in 2006. Conclusion : Should we expect a nice recovery this summer due to the thicker ice? You bet ya.
Since then we have read seemingly endless hysterics by Joe Romm and government sources about record melt rates, and how clueless and ignorant my analysis has been. So let’s look at what has actually happened since June 1. The graph below shows JAXA extent since June 1 for 2006 and 2010.
Basically, they are two parallel lines. 2010 has tracked 2006 quite closely – just as PIPS said they should. There have been no major diversions from the pattern this summer. Summer 2010 has been almost a straight line. Apparently some bloggers “can’t see the forest for the trees.”
In the DMI record, 2010 has passed every year except 2005 and 2006. The only real question now is – will 2010 end up in the #2 or #3 spot?
Closeup below:
At the end of May, Mark Serreze and Joe Romm had a different take for 2010:
“Could we break another record this year? I think it’s quite possible,” said Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo.
We are in the fourth quarter of the 2010 game. The score right now is :
Breathtakingly Ignorant* WUWT – 1
Experts – 0
Will the peer reviewed experts score at the last minute? What do you think?
* A term coined by Dr. Mark Serrezze
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savethesharks says:
August 9, 2010 at 9:05 am
The hopscotch is continuing unabated to the N. Hemisphere.
Here it comes. Make a roulette wheel with regions instead of red & black numbers.
Spin often.
R. Gates says:
August 9, 2010 at 8:15 am
General question, if anybody knows: Where does Joe Bastardi’s “brutally cold N. Hemisphere winter” for this upcoming winter come from? What is the basis?
Joe Bastardi has made reference to the NOAA forecast pointing out whilst doing so that he got there first. 🙂
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/glbT2mSea.gif
Mick.
The new tree hugger is the ice hugger.
R. Gates says:
August 9, 2010 at 8:15 am
You should revisit all WUWT posts dealing with the “Solar Minimum” we are in and forget about reading anything from your prophet.
R. Gates:
As rbateman said, “pay attention”.
Watch his videos
http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj
“brutally cold N. Hemisphere winter” indeed. Nobody counting Sun spots?
The PDO has been moving into a cooler regime for the last 10 years, from the warm phase of 20 years prior and still this period is warmest in the relevant time frame. This seems to suggest the PDO is losing some influence, as Global temperatures should have been heading back towards late 1940’s temp’s when the PDO phase was similar.
R. Gates said;
“August 9, 2010 at 8:15 am
General question, if anybody knows: Where does Joe Bastardi’s “brutally cold N. Hemisphere winter” for this upcoming winter come from? What is the basis? I don’t follow him at all, but I’d be curious to find out his basis for forecasting. I’ve also heard others mention this before here on WUWT, but not heard the reasoning why in any detail.”
R Gates is right, a number of commentators have been forecasting a terrible NH winter but with limited explanation as to why they believe this.
Anthony, might this be the time for a ‘predictions’ thread, so those that think they know the severity of the forthcoming winter can post their predictions AND reasons for the world to see and judge come next March?
Tonyb
An interesting quote from Joe Bastardi:
That versus AGW prognosticators in government agencies who can say anything without fear as long as it agrees with the Team. If they’re wrong, they get promoted.
I read Joe Bastardi to say the 2010-2011 USA winter wouldn’t be as bad as the last two, except maybe for some of the west. Even considered mild in the southern states. He said Europe was going to remain brutal, though.
Its flat warmed up considerably in my neck of the woods, compared to the last two summers. Its starting to dry out some, finally, still so humid. The sun is pushing, didn’t Ulrich predict a warm October?
I’m hoping for some rebound, the very unstable past few years has been costly for us. Long story…
Will the ‘The Komrades’ score at the last minute? Only The Shadow knows for sure!
This is like playing Mixed Rugby with the Ol’ Soviets, ya jus never knew where or when or who their 300lb females are going strike next.
During La Nina under a warm Atlantic, northern winters on both coasts become more severe temperature and snow wise.
If the AO goes negative under a warm Atlantic ocean, the impact is double for the East Coast (IE low temps and lots of snow). If the Atlantic goes cold, there would likely be bitter cold with less moisture.
If the Northern Pacific warm pool stays warm, we get a boat load of snow as the on shore flow first crosses over warm moist ocean before it crosses over cold waters and then dumps on land as snow. If that pool goes cold, the West Coast becomes bitterly cold with less moisture.
It’s all a matter of warm moisture sources mixing with cold air, with wind shear/pressure differences helping storms to develop.
FYI: My above post on weather pattern variations is my understanding, which is always in need of improvement.
Here’s a plot that fits with your analysis.
http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ext_rates_n.png
The rate of ice loss is past the maximum for the various years plotted. 2010’s rate of ice loss was not as high as the other years. Only a couple more weeks of significant loss before in tapers quickly to the start of ice growth.
The persistently overcast sky from the north pole cam is likely a significant driver to the lower rate of ice loss over the last month or so. That cloud cover is also indicated in the lower than expected temperature.
Anyone want to speculate on the errors to the AMSR-E concentration and the calculated arctic ice area resulting from the assumption of ponding of water on the ice in cases where the earlier ponds are now actual frozen; e.g. the Northpole webcam?
tonyb says:
August 9, 2010 at 9:52 am
R Gates is right, a number of commentators have been forecasting a terrible NH winter but with limited explanation as to why they believe this.
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Bastardi correctly forecast the past extremely snowy winter for the eastern USA and Europe, beginning July of 2009. He is a damn good long range forecaster, but sometimes gets hung out to dry because he wears all his weather emotions on his sleeve.
But, in July 2009, remember, back when the CFS and the UK Met was forecasting nothing of the sort, Bastardi was saying record snow….and sure enough it happened.
The difference this year is that because of the cold PDO and the extremely pronounced La Nina, will reverse the balmy Canadian, Pac NW and Arctic winter of last year.
So parts of the NH will NOT have an eventful winter at all (and he has said that).
He is forecasting “brutal” for the Arctic regions and the other areas such as the PAC NW which have direct correlations with La Nina base state.
The negative Arctic Oscillation of last winter will switch to more positive this year….and no doubt will have New Yorkers crying “global warming.”
Oh, right, the record snows of last year were global warming too.
The brutal winter conditions in the NH this year will be in the exact opposite places that they were the last, and then some.
Brutal winter (or “massive”)….against the means.
Will be interesting to see how it shakes out.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
jcrabb says:
August 9, 2010 at 9:49 am
If you were to say that the last 10 years is the warmest “adjusted” decade of the modern period, sure.
So too were the books of the many Wall St. financials, being the most profitable ‘adjusted’ years ever.
But, unlike the Too Big to Fail institutions, you cannot bail out the climate.
Think of this as a Bear Climate downturn.
Why haven’t we heard any forecasts from Hadley? Why is it that all the warmists have stopped making forecasts?
Just a couple of years ago they were all out there hollering them to the world.
Their silence is deafening.
These predictions of weather for the winter are general predictions and not made to be taken “X will happen”. But overall they are based on what we know, so unless something is really off, (like something with the climate that we have never seen before) they should be very close to the mark.
You can not predict weather to the extent that you know what will happen on day x, but we can make general predictions (like the farmer’s almanac tends to do) and be somewhat accurate just based on past weather patterns…
Of course, these predictions have a chance to be wrong, so as I like to say, let just wait and see what mother nature has in store for us this winter. I am very pessimistic for this winter when trees that I have watered are already having leaves change color and fall….this a month early. Early indications are for a very bad winter overall.
Quick question.
Does anyone know whether a climate scientist (pro AGW) has stated on the record giving an outline of what would falsify AGW theory?
Jimbo
Religions survive for thousands of years because people can always find a random occurrence which supports their belief system. Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day.
Jimbo says:
August 9, 2010 at 11:00 am
Answer to your quick question:
Yes, AL himself was the answer.
Jimbo says:
August 9, 2010 at 11:00 am
“Quick question.
Does anyone know whether a climate scientist (pro AGW) has stated on the record giving an outline of what would falsify AGW theory?”
According to Bart’s AGW blog, falsifying AGW is not that easy; it’s about as hard as falsifying gravity. No really, he says so.
http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2010/01/06/a-quick-n-dirty-guide-to-falsifying-agw/
See? You lose.
La Nina usually means cold but drier in the Sierra, El Nino sometimes means lots of snow in the Sierra as in 1982 or long lasting as in this past Spring.
Jimbo says:
August 9, 2010 at 11:00 am
Quick question.
Does anyone know whether a climate scientist (pro AGW) has stated on the record giving an outline of what would falsify AGW theory?
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I don’t know how you could do it, considering that they have claimed everything as a result of AGW.
Since the whole “model” thing hinges on the tropical hot spot, and there isn’t, never had been, and doesn’t look like there ever will be one……
I’d say the whole thing is a farce.
As far as I’m concerned, everything we are seeing is noise and right in line with natural variability.
Since the question of how solar cycle 24 is progressing has come up, look at the latest development on
http://leif.org/research/F107%20at%20Minima%201954%20and%202008.png
F10.7 appears to be ramping up, just like it did early this year. Is this just another false alarm, or are we now seeing the actual cycle 24 ramp-up? Enquiring minds want to know!