While Sea Surface Temperatures are cooling sharply as shown here, global surface temperature is still oscillating around 0.40 to 0.50C for the last four months. This is not surprising as the air temperature is strongly correlated with the SST but lags behind by about 3 months. Expect drops in the months ahead. – Anthony
July 2010 UAH Global Temperature Update: +0.49 deg. C
Br Dr. Roy Spencer, PhD
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature remained high, +0.49 deg. C in July, 2010, although the tropics continued to cool as La Nina approaches.
As of Julian Day 212 (end of July), the race for warmest year in the 32-year satellite period of record is still too close to call with 1998 continuing its lead by only 0.07 C:
YEAR GL NH SH TRPCS
1998 +0.62 +0.73 +0.51 +0.90
2010 +0.55 +0.74 +0.36 +0.63
To exceed 1998 as the warmest year, the daily global average temperature for the remainder of this year (1 Aug to 31 Dec, 2010) will need to average above +0.466 deg. C.
As a reminder, five months ago we changed to Version 5.3 of our dataset, which accounts for the mismatch between the average seasonal cycle produced by the older MSU and the newer AMSU instruments. This affects the value of the individual monthly departures, but does not affect the year to year variations, and thus the overall trend remains the same as in Version 5.2. ALSO…we have added the NOAA-18 AMSU to the data processing in v5.3, which provides data since June of 2005. The local observation time of NOAA-18 (now close to 2 p.m., ascending node) is similar to that of NASA’s Aqua satellite (about 1:30 p.m.). The temperature anomalies listed above have changed somewhat as a result of adding NOAA-18.
[NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) carried on the satellite radiometers. The PRT’s are individually calibrated in a laboratory before being installed in the instruments.]
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.251 0.472 0.030 -0.068
2009 2 0.247 0.565 -0.071 -0.045
2009 3 0.191 0.324 0.058 -0.159
2009 4 0.162 0.315 0.008 0.012
2009 5 0.139 0.161 0.118 -0.059
2009 6 0.041 -0.021 0.103 0.105
2009 7 0.429 0.190 0.668 0.506
2009 8 0.242 0.236 0.248 0.406
2009 9 0.505 0.597 0.413 0.594
2009 10 0.362 0.332 0.393 0.383
2009 11 0.498 0.453 0.543 0.479
2009 12 0.284 0.358 0.211 0.506
2010 1 0.648 0.860 0.436 0.681
2010 2 0.603 0.720 0.486 0.791
2010 3 0.653 0.850 0.455 0.726
2010 4 0.501 0.799 0.203 0.633
2010 5 0.534 0.775 0.292 0.708
2010 6 0.436 0.550 0.323 0.476
2010 7 0.489 0.635 0.344 0.422
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.251 0.472 0.030 -0.068
2009 2 0.247 0.565 -0.071 -0.045
2009 3 0.191 0.324 0.058 -0.159
2009 4 0.162 0.315 0.008 0.012
2009 5 0.139 0.161 0.118 -0.059
2009 6 0.041 -0.021 0.103 0.105
2009 7 0.429 0.190 0.668 0.506
2009 8 0.242 0.236 0.248 0.406
2009 9 0.505 0.597 0.413 0.594
2009 10 0.362 0.332 0.393 0.383
2009 11 0.498 0.453 0.543 0.479
2009 12 0.284 0.358 0.211 0.506
2010 1 0.648 0.860 0.436 0.681
2010 2 0.603 0.720 0.486 0.791
2010 3 0.653 0.850 0.455 0.726
2010 4 0.501 0.799 0.203 0.633
2010 5 0.534 0.775 0.292 0.708
2010 6 0.436 0.550 0.323 0.476
2010 7 0.489 0.635 0.344 0.422
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This is “off topic” sort of: In a book by Ted Nield, Supercontinent, he quotes Richard Feynman. ” NASA, he said, had made the fundamental scientific mistake of confusing their models with reality. Nature … cannot be fooled.” Nield goes on “Models encapsulate our view of the world… models are maps of reality, and like all maps, they have errors and it’s never too long before someone finds something that was missed … scientists forget this and start thinking that model and reality are the same”
Can anyone explain why Spencer’s graph doesn’t show the 13 month running average (red line) after the beginning of 2010? To my inexperienced eye, it would appear that if graphed, the 13 month running average, to date, would equal or exceed that for mid 1998, during the “super” El Nino.
Its so much like the stock market.
Plot some wiggly charts, correlate with everything that moves, use the best apparent leading indicator to make predictions.
It will work until it doesn’t.
” Bill Marsh says:
August 3, 2010 at 9:47 am
I must not understand the relationship between the daily ASU sat temps and the UAH.
I tend to read the daily ASU temps, well, daily and every day this month has been in the range of .2 – .33F lower than corresponding days in July of 2009 and it was about .25F lower than all of June. I was a little surprised that the UAH actually increased from June to July.”
Are you talking about AQUA ch 5? In that case you missed the minus sign (“data as text” shows temperatures in K, currently around 254K).
” Phil. says:
August 3, 2010 at 9:36 am
And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.”
Please add the source.
I think that most datasets show that there was a cooling period beween 1945 and 1979. We did not have satellite data then so we cannot compare like with like but from the surface data we have a cooling of 0.4C. However during the period of 1979 to 2010 we have both data sets, with the surface data suggesting a warming of 0.8C whilst the satellite data gives 0.6C. Although we cannot compare the satellite and surface measures in absolute terms the increases should be comparable. From the previous post from Mckitrick the surface data is highly suspect so the 0.6C figure is more likely to be correct. This suggests that both the 0.4C cooling and 0.8C warming figures from the surface data sets are most likely in error by +0.2 as a result of false corrections, UHI/land use effects etc. This suggests that the real cooling between 1945 and 1979 was 0.6C and the warming between 1979 and 2010 was 0.6C. Strange as it may seem the 30 year period before 1945 also had a warming of at least 0.6C. This looks more like an oscillation than a trend.
The fan man says:
August 3, 2010 at 9:58 am
So now we can be quite sure that March 2010 was the peak, and we can calculate (according to Goddard’s crest-to-crest principle) a somewhat meaningful trend from February 1998 to March 2010. Result: No significant warming during the last 12 years.
You might also notice that each trough keeps getting higher and higher.
It is also false to say there has been no significant warming in the past 12 years. It might look that way drawing a straight line with deceiving month to month variations, but the average of the decade 2000-2010 is hotter than all other recorded decades before it.
Take a look at that graph, see where temperature has been from 1990-2000, and then from 2000-2010 and then say again with a straight face that there has been no significant warming in the past 12 years.
______________________________________________________________________-
Yes the temps have gotten higher in the short run but what caused it?
Look what was happening in the solar cycles before cycle 24.
Solar activity reaches new high – Dec 2, 2003
” Geophysicists in Finland and Germany have calculated that the Sun is more magnetically active now than it has been for over a 1000 years. Ilya Usoskin and colleagues at the University of Oulu and the Max-Planck Institute for Aeronomy say that their technique – which relies on a radioactive dating technique – is the first direct quantitative reconstruction of solar activity based on physical, rather than statistical, models (I G Usoskin et al. 2003 Phys. Rev. Lett. 91 211101)
… the Finnish team was able to extend data on solar activity back to 850 AD. The researchers found that there has been a sharp increase in the number of sunspots since the beginning of the 20th century. They calculated that the average number was about 30 per year between 850 and 1900, and then increased to 60 between 1900 and 1944, and is now at its highest ever value of 76.
“We need to understand this unprecedented level of activity,” Usoskin told PhysicsWeb.”
With cycle 24 the sun has gone quiet again. According to NASA and the Solar Dynamics Observatory Mission News
“We want to compare the sun’s brightness now to its brightness during previous minima and ask: is the sun getting brighter or dimmer?”
The answer seems to be dimmer. Measurements by a variety of spacecraft indicate a 12-year lessening of the sun’s “irradiance” by about 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at EUV wavelengths.”
Does the sun effect climate?
NASA Finds Sun-Climate Connection in Old Nile Records
Study of Dust in Ice Cores Shows Volcanic Eruptions Interfere with the Effect of Sunspots on Global Climate
Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ca 11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes.
Lesson from the past: present insolation minimum holds potential for glacial inception
The Authors say there will be no returning Ice Age but that is based on the assumption of “continuously increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and no change in the sun.”
So do you want a glacier sitting on top of Chicago or do you want it one degree warmer? What does your “Precautionary Principle” say is the worst case?
Phil. says:
August 3, 2010 at 9:36 am
(…)
And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.
—–Reply
Then somebody forgot to notify my tomatoes. You may think I’m joking, but I’m not. Just happens the last time I raised tomatoes was 10 years ago, and I raised a splendid crop–several bushels. This year I have 20 of the most beautiful plants, most in the 3-4 foot range and going strong (thanks, CO2!). I’ve fertilized and watered them much like I did those of a decade ago, but here’s the problem–precious few tomatoes, and just 6 weeks from now frost will be a significant factor in my area.
Why no tomatoes?
Well, I looked it up on the Internet and found there are several factors, but one of the most pertinent (especially in my case) is the night-time temperature. See, tomatoes have difficulty producing fruit until the night-time lows consistently exceed 55 degrees F. So I looked at the month of July just past and for my location in Idaho, there was just one nighttime low higher than 55–it was actually 58 that night. There were three nights at 55, and all the rest were lower than that–some significantly so (one nighttime low was only 42 degrees). June was even worse (it froze the morning of the 18th of June, requiring that I replace all plants).
So you can ballyhoo about global warming all you want, but I agree with Michael Schaefer and his comment that life FLOURISHED (root word there is “flower”, in line with my gardening woes) when the earth was warmer. Or are there folks that simply don’t want me to enjoy tomatoes from my garden?
KevinM says:
August 3, 2010 at 11:35 am
Its so much like the stock market.
Plot some wiggly charts, correlate with everything that moves, use the best apparent leading indicator to make predictions.
It will work until it doesn’t.
___________________________________________
Scott Armstrong, a professor of marketing at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School has some really good (and humorous) papers on that subject at
Publications
Plain Prose: It’s Seldom Seen in Journals: points out how mediocre bafflegab is the best way to get published in peer reviewed journals. Bafflegab Pays
The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting, is an absolute must read – but do not drink anything while you read it or it will end up on your computer screen.
It may be hot in Russia but after a nice and warm June ( A few days tipping the 30 C mark ) it has been below average ever since. After a very cold winter i was hoping for a decent summer. Unfortunately the beautiful summers with two, three or more heat waves ( 5 days in a row over 25 C with in them two over 30 C ) have been a while ago.
Phil. says:
August 3, 2010 at 9:36 am
“…And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979…”as no bearing
Phil, you should know better. This is weather, not climate, and has no bearing on the future trajectory of oscillating weather regimes. Also, don’t be too keen to rely on satellite data, which use algorithms to translate the raw data to temperature anomalies based on historic patterns, many of which no longer apply.
See Bill Marsh comment (August 3, 2010 at 9:47 am)…
“…I tend to read the daily ASU temps, well, daily and every day this month has been in the range of .2 – .33F lower than corresponding days in July of 2009 and it was about .25F lower than all of June…
o/t but a must read. In todays london Times, a story about a giant water pocket under a glacier called “tete-rousse ” on mount blanc in France. its on page 25, in the world news section. To condense the story it is saying that if it bursts, lots of life and property will be lost. It says it last burst in 1892 killing at least 175 people. Here is the money quote, and i will copy the last paragraph in full.
MrVincent said that the most likley explanation for the formation of the pocket was a period of particularly cold temperatures within the glacier, freezing the waters escape routes. THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF GLOBAL WARMING, WHICH HAS REDUCED THE SNOW COVERING ON THE GLACIER AND EXPOSED IT TO THE COLD. This report was filed by Adam Sage – Paris. So what was the cause in 1892?
If you accept the data showing that most of the oceanic ‘ocillators’ are in or entering their cooling phases , solar activity remains in an extended quiescence, and have an appreciation for real hard winters as only a native of Canada or the norther tier US can, you will hew to the parable of The Ant and The Grasshopper. While various ‘grasshoppers’ are pointing to the last few positive temperature trends and smirking, the ‘ants’ (like myself) are preparing for winter.
I have 5 full cords of split and dry, renewable biomass fuel (aka: firewood) ready for heating my home through the coming winter… and am actively looking for more. Others spend regular hours in the gym and pay for their exercise. I have a wood pile that needs regular attention (cutting, splitting, hauling, stacking), to help keep me fit. As most woodsmen acknowledge, cutting firewood heats you several times before you ever burn it!
While my house has a high efficiency gas furnace, hot water heater, and super insulation, the winters have a way of knocking down electrical power lines during heavy snow and wind storms. These storms are most often followed by even deeper cold periods and electrical power can be unavailable for days. Yet my home remains a toasty warm haven for storm watching from, thanks to a high efficiency wood stove! When the power grid is ‘up’, the wood stove still provides the majority of the home heating. And when you come in from a cold bit of work outdoors, there is nothing as inviting as backing up to a hot wood stove with a mug of coffee in hand, to warm the extremities and the heart!
Winter is coming……. Remember the lesson of The Ant and The Grasshopper:
“To work today is to (h)eat tomorrow!”
Plenty of snow in Argentina today:
http://www.clarin.com/sociedad/nieve-ola_de_frio_0_310169183.html
http://www.lmcordoba.com.ar/nota.php?ni=24320
Weather, climate or Watt, I mean, what?
It is amusing seeing Hansen clawing to push 2010 a few hundredths over 1998.
According to his scenario B, 2010 should be more than half a degree warmer than 1998. Even if he gets away with pushing the current year o.01 degrees over 1998 – he is still missing his own forecast by a factor of fifty.
stevengoddard says:
August 3, 2010 at 12:41 pm
“Even if he gets away with pushing the current year o.01 degrees over 1998 – he is still missing his own forecast by a factor of fifty.”
Hey Steve, how is your forecast for 2010 low in arctic ice extent shaping up?
MJK
A pattern?…..Any suspects already?
>> The fan man says:
August 3, 2010 at 9:58 am
.. the average of the decade 2000-2010 is hotter than all other recorded decades before it. <<
ALL of them? All two of them? Shocking!
evanmjones says:
August 3, 2010 at 8:43 am
doubling the amount in the atmosphere will not have a material impact on temperature.
Oh, I think it will. Somewhere in the neighborhood of +1°C.
I guess this is opinion, evan, because there is no science yet that provides the proof you would need for that statement to be definitive.
Speaking of oceans, the area just north of Iceland is doing a bit of “shake rattle and roll” It is getting earthquakes with a magnitude over 3 (green star) the last couple of times I checked. http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/
cal says:
August 3, 2010 at 12:01 pm
“This looks more like an oscillation than a trend.”
You’re entirely correct.
I guess this is opinion, evan, because there is no science yet that provides the proof you would need for that statement to be definitive.
Just opinion, quite. It’s not definitive. Just the log theory that is the current wisdom of most skeptical scientists. There will be no decent proof until better observational data is available. Lindzen has made a good start, but a longer interval is needed.
Observed warming, even stipulating the adjusted data is correct (which I doubt) must call the basic forcing equation into some question.
There’s also the question of negative vs. positive feedback, where most of the debate currently raging.
We’ll just have to wait and see. I think we have plenty of time to do that without blowing half of world growth (which won’t even help much if the problem is real).
I also think that if there turns out there is a real problem, we will be far better able to cope, solve, and adjust than if we have blown the Gross World Product in the mean time.
mjk says:
August 3, 2010 at 12:49 pm
stevengoddard says:
August 3, 2010 at 12:41 pm
“Even if he gets away with pushing the current year o.01 degrees over 1998 – he is still missing his own forecast by a factor of fifty.”
Hey Steve, how is your forecast for 2010 low in arctic ice extent shaping up?
Oh God! The kids are at the computer again. Groan………..
Gail Combs says:
August 3, 2010 at 1:21 pm
Is any of those stars near the Katla volcano?….just to buy more popcorn 🙂
evanmjones says:
August 3, 2010 at 2:09 pm
“I also think that if there turns out there is a real problem, we will be far better able to cope, solve, and adjust than if we have blown the Gross World Product in the mean time.”
Fabulous – the entire argument in a nutshell. Why we can’t get people in power to see it this way I just don’t know. I think I want to start a chant going:
“adaptation – not mitigation”
do you think it will catch on?
Rob