UAH Global Temperature – still in a holding pattern

While Sea Surface Temperatures are cooling sharply as shown here, global surface temperature is still oscillating around 0.40 to 0.50C for the last four months. This is not surprising as the air temperature is strongly correlated with the SST but lags behind by about 3 months. Expect drops in the months ahead. – Anthony

July 2010 UAH Global Temperature Update: +0.49 deg. C

Br Dr. Roy Spencer, PhD

UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_10

The global-average lower tropospheric temperature remained high, +0.49 deg. C in July, 2010, although the tropics continued to cool as La Nina approaches.

As of Julian Day 212 (end of July), the race for warmest year in the 32-year satellite period of record is still too close to call with 1998 continuing its lead by only 0.07 C:

YEAR GL NH SH TRPCS

1998 +0.62 +0.73 +0.51 +0.90

2010 +0.55 +0.74 +0.36 +0.63

To exceed 1998 as the warmest year, the daily global average temperature for the remainder of this year (1 Aug to 31 Dec, 2010) will need to average above +0.466 deg. C.

As a reminder, five months ago we changed to Version 5.3 of our dataset, which accounts for the mismatch between the average seasonal cycle produced by the older MSU and the newer AMSU instruments. This affects the value of the individual monthly departures, but does not affect the year to year variations, and thus the overall trend remains the same as in Version 5.2. ALSO…we have added the NOAA-18 AMSU to the data processing in v5.3, which provides data since June of 2005. The local observation time of NOAA-18 (now close to 2 p.m., ascending node) is similar to that of NASA’s Aqua satellite (about 1:30 p.m.). The temperature anomalies listed above have changed somewhat as a result of adding NOAA-18.

[NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) carried on the satellite radiometers. The PRT’s are individually calibrated in a laboratory before being installed in the instruments.]

YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS

2009 1 0.251 0.472 0.030 -0.068

2009 2 0.247 0.565 -0.071 -0.045

2009 3 0.191 0.324 0.058 -0.159

2009 4 0.162 0.315 0.008 0.012

2009 5 0.139 0.161 0.118 -0.059

2009 6 0.041 -0.021 0.103 0.105

2009 7 0.429 0.190 0.668 0.506

2009 8 0.242 0.236 0.248 0.406

2009 9 0.505 0.597 0.413 0.594

2009 10 0.362 0.332 0.393 0.383

2009 11 0.498 0.453 0.543 0.479

2009 12 0.284 0.358 0.211 0.506

2010 1 0.648 0.860 0.436 0.681

2010 2 0.603 0.720 0.486 0.791

2010 3 0.653 0.850 0.455 0.726

2010 4 0.501 0.799 0.203 0.633

2010 5 0.534 0.775 0.292 0.708

2010 6 0.436 0.550 0.323 0.476

2010 7 0.489 0.635 0.344 0.422

YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS

2009 1 0.251 0.472 0.030 -0.068

2009 2 0.247 0.565 -0.071 -0.045

2009 3 0.191 0.324 0.058 -0.159

2009 4 0.162 0.315 0.008 0.012

2009 5 0.139 0.161 0.118 -0.059

2009 6 0.041 -0.021 0.103 0.105

2009 7 0.429 0.190 0.668 0.506

2009 8 0.242 0.236 0.248 0.406

2009 9 0.505 0.597 0.413 0.594

2009 10 0.362 0.332 0.393 0.383

2009 11 0.498 0.453 0.543 0.479

2009 12 0.284 0.358 0.211 0.506

2010 1 0.648 0.860 0.436 0.681

2010 2 0.603 0.720 0.486 0.791

2010 3 0.653 0.850 0.455 0.726

2010 4 0.501 0.799 0.203 0.633

2010 5 0.534 0.775 0.292 0.708

2010 6 0.436 0.550 0.323 0.476

2010 7 0.489 0.635 0.344 0.422

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76 thoughts on “UAH Global Temperature – still in a holding pattern

  1. Thanks Anthony– I asked about when this would be released in a comment to the last entry. This is one of the few data sets that intererst me. It has a 32 year pedegree, it’s data and analysis functions are transparent and public so it is a reliable database. What does it tell us? The 13 month smoothing trendline for the last 15 years is about .2C higher than the first fiften years, and during the last 10 years UAH has flatlined at a .2C elevated level, excepting the variations caused by moderate El Ninos and La Ninas. What does that MEAN? Buggers me. But, I do know what it DOESN’T mean — there is no catastophic temperature increase result caused by the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. The IPCC and Hanson models have been ‘myth busted’, disproven, invalidated by this database, because atmosphere CO2 has increased more than those models assumed, but the precipitous temp increases they projected have not occurred. CO2 is a trace gas, and doubling the amount in the atmosphere will not have a material impact on temperature. Next case.

  2. Yet most of the media is ignoring the freezing Bolivians, and alarming us with the cooking Muscovites. The truth apparently is a matter of ideology, not facts.

  3. doubling the amount in the atmosphere will not have a material impact on temperature.
    Oh, I think it will. Somewhere in the neighborhood of +1°C.

  4. evanmjones says: August 3, 2010 at 8:43 am
    doubling the amount in the atmosphere will not have a material impact on temperature. — Oh, I think it will. Somewhere in the neighborhood of +1°C.
    I think that’s the best guess (in line with Michael Crichton’s and legitimate physicists’) but I don’t consider turning Chicago’s average temperature into that currently for Indianapolis or NYC’s into Baltimore’s is “material.”

  5. What is the reason for using a running 13-month average? I would have thought a running 12-month average was more suitable.

  6. So now we can be quite sure that March 2010 was the peak, and we can calculate (according to Goddard’s crest-to-crest principle) a somewhat meaningful trend from February 1998 to March 2010. Result: No significant warming during the last 12 years.

  7. http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/08599200808100
    In this propaganda piece, reporter Simon Shuster wonders if Russia’s stand on Global Warming has changed since the deadly forest fires and the heatwave. A few extracts are gems of ignorance and bias:
    “But while overconsumption of vodka is a familiar scourge in Russia, extreme heat is not, and as the worst heat wave on record spawns wildfires that are destroying entire villages, Russian officials have made what for them is a startling admission: global warming is very real. ”
    Shuster should go back to school and learn Koppel’s climate zones for a start: yes a simple geography course will remind him that the area of Russia that is experiencing the heatwave is in a continental climate known for strong contrasts, very cold winter and very hot summers. The same Shuster was no where to be seen when western Siberia experienced 3 months of -30C last winter…
    “Two months before Copenhagen, state-owned Channel One television aired a documentary called The History of a Deception: Global Warming, which argued that the notion of man-made climate change was the result of an international media conspiracy. A month later, hackers sparked the so-called Climategate scandal by stealing e-mails from European climate researchers. The hacked e-mails, which were then used to support the arguments of global-warming skeptics, appeared to have been distributed through a server in the Siberian oil town of Tomsk, raising suspicion among some environmental activists of Russia’s involvement in the leak.”
    Proof? Who cares Shuster would not be bothered…
    “Broadly speaking, the Russian position has always been that climate change is an invention of the West to try to bring Russia to its knees,” says Vladimir Chuprov, director of the Greenpeace energy department in Moscow. ”
    Here comes an unbiased source…
    “Medvedev has not been the only person in Russia to link the ongoing heat wave to climate change. Alexei Lyakhov, head of Moscow’s meteorological center, tells TIME it is “clearly part of a global phenomenon” that is hitting Russia. “We have to start taking systemic measures of adaptation. It’s obvious now. Just like human beings at one point took steps to adapt to the Ice Age, we now have to adapt to this,” he says, citing cuts to carbon emissions as one of the necessary adaptations. ”
    Yes it is called an El Nino year but our reporter writes in such a manner that the source is saying what he probably never said…
    “Now that Medvedev is also acknowledging the effects of climate change, Russia’s official line on the subject could start to change, Chuprov says. But he warns that convincing the public of the threat from global warming may be difficult. “The status quo can change quickly in the minds of bureaucrats if the leadership gives the signal. But in the minds of the people, myths are much more difficult to uproot,” he says. ”
    Again the last word is given to Greenpeace… but russians scientists are not gullible and know that they live in a continental climate, they also understand that high pressure agglutinations are at the source of the increasing contrast between seasons in contradiction with the global warming hysteria that Shusters and TIME in clear partnership with Greenpeace are flogging in the west.

  8. One factor which is having an impact right now is that the AMO and the north Atlantic which is spiking higher. The AMO sometimes spikes after an El Nino and it takes 6 months or so to start declining. I’ve found that I need to include the AMO in all the reconstructions I’ve done.
    So, we have a 3 month lag from the ENSO (July was still being impacted by the +0.68C El Nino in April) and the AMO is high. Overall, the ocean temperatures are decreasing but it is still going to take awhile for the atmosphere to decline in step. They should continue declining until February or March next year.
    Here is the AMO from 1997 to the month-to-date July 2010 value.
    http://a.imageshack.us/img831/6117/amo19972010.png

  9. “Jason says:
    August 3, 2010 at 8:20 am
    Warmest July on record according to RSS, +.61C.”
    Warmest July on record according to UAH is July 1998, +0.52°C

  10. After all the cherry picking going on here of late, showing the record setting cold weather from local weather events around the globe, I was expecting Dr Spencer’s graph to have plummeted. Now for a dose of cold hard reality folks: Global temparatures “remain high” according to the ever reliable Dr Spencer–and even managed an increase on last month.
    P.S Steve, how is your arctic ice extent forecast shaping up for this year?
    MJK

  11. NK says:
    August 3, 2010 at 8:36 am
    Thanks Anthony– I asked about when this would be released in a comment to the last entry. This is one of the few data sets that intererst me. It has a 32 year pedegree, it’s data and analysis functions are transparent and public so it is a reliable database. What does it tell us? The 13 month smoothing trendline for the last 15 years is about .2C higher than the first fiften years, and during the last 10 years UAH has flatlined at a .2C elevated level, excepting the variations caused by moderate El Ninos and La Ninas. What does that MEAN? Buggers me. But, I do know what it DOESN’T mean — there is no catastophic temperature increase result caused by the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. The IPCC and Hanson models have been ‘myth busted’, disproven, invalidated by this database, because atmosphere CO2 has increased more than those models assumed, but the precipitous temp increases they projected have not occurred. CO2 is a trace gas, and doubling the amount in the atmosphere will not have a material impact on temperature. Next case.

    And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.

  12. “Poiuyt One says:
    August 3, 2010 at 8:59 am
    What is the reason for using a running 13-month average? I would have thought a running 12-month average was more suitable.”
    You can distribute that symmetrically around the month you are looking at: 6 month before, 6 month after.

  13. It’s still summer in the northern hemisphere and lots of land mass to still absorb heat. The “Big Dip” will come this winter as the southern hemisphere is colder than normal and due to the lesser land mass won’t absorb much solar radiation…. anyway, this is how I see it.

  14. I must not understand the relationship between the daily ASU sat temps and the UAH.
    I tend to read the daily ASU temps, well, daily and every day this month has been in the range of .2 – .33F lower than corresponding days in July of 2009 and it was about .25F lower than all of June. I was a little surprised that the UAH actually increased from June to July.

  15. So now we can be quite sure that March 2010 was the peak, and we can calculate (according to Goddard’s crest-to-crest principle) a somewhat meaningful trend from February 1998 to March 2010. Result: No significant warming during the last 12 years.
    You might also notice that each trough keeps getting higher and higher.
    It is also false to say there has been no significant warming in the past 12 years. It might look that way drawing a straight line with deceiving month to month variations, but the average of the decade 2000-2010 is hotter than all other recorded decades before it.
    Take a look at that graph, see where temperature has been from 1990-2000, and then from 2000-2010 and then say again with a straight face that there has been no significant warming in the past 12 years.

  16. This is probable a dumb question. Can someone explain why Dr. Spencer’s Global Average Temperature is about 3 degrees C warmwr in July than in January?

  17. mjk says: August 3, 2010 at 9:23 am “. . . Global temparatures “remain high” ”
    I guess it depends on the definition of “global temperatures.” Can Lower Troposphere temps alone represent the global average?
    The global oceans (60°N–6-°S) SST anomaly is at 0.4°C (down from 2°C) while the tropical focus (5°N–5°S) is –1.5°C and the high Arctic mean (80°N+) is around –0.8.
    Meanwhile, here in the Bay Area, this summer has been distinctly cooler with several new record lows.
    When we look at the really big picture on balance, is the trend towards record highs or trending cooler?

  18. And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.
    Warming is no surprise. The question is at what rate. @ under 2C per century or over 3C as the midline IPCC projections indicate?

  19. This good Earth has managed to heat itself up from the deep-freezers of 20 x 110,000-year-long glaciations in a row, interrupted only by meager 12.000 warming intervals (the latest one of which is sceduled to end next Wednesday, btw…) .
    This good Earth has managed to keep it’s biospere intact under a CO2-flushed sky, with CO2-levels ranging five-times as high as today, when life on Earth didn’t suffer, but FLOURISHED and bloomed to hence unprecedented levels.
    This good Earth has seen everything from Snowball Earth to a bathtub-hot Arctic Ocean and steaming jungles on Antarctica – and STILL has managed to stay inhabitable all by itself for BILLIONS of years without human interference, whatsoever.
    All that – and we are still here – biped apes, just escaped from the darkness of the middle ages, and still playing Gods (“Prometheus Delusion” – anyone?).
    So why is anybody bragging about 0.2 or 0.5 degrees of alleged higher average global temps – while WUWT, in concert with other, properly investigating sites, has proven time and again, that – due to UHI and misinterpreted airport-weather boots, to name but a few – there simply IS NO reliable database from which to draw ANY reliable conclusion to assess, if there’s a Global Warming to ANY degree going on at all – or not.
    All that boils down to one single word, containing all the wisdom of all the actual UN-IPCC, GISS- and whatever-scientists combined:
    “QUACK!”

  20. mjk,
    just look at what will happen, It seems that we have gone down about .1-.2 a month, and then the next month rebounds back up by about 0.05, and then down it goes again (look at this year since the peak) . Once the La Nina takes its effect on temperatures watch how cold the globe is going to get. The CFS model is having the Earth hit really far below normal by the winter season,

  21. As I look at the graph, I see the step change, as if the climate has shifted to a new state.
    From 1979 to 1997, things oscillated in a fairly stable pattern with typical fluctuations that one sees in complex natural systems.
    Then we had the big el nino, and now things are oscillating about 3 tenths higher.
    Until the next shift. It could shift back down.
    In any case, 0.3 degrees in 30 years, is 1 degree per century.
    And if CO2 warming is now saturated, it’s all up to feedbacks, which according to numerous recent research may be negative, or much smaller than alarmists hypothesize.
    So, my guess, the next phase is a notch down.

  22. Hey Phil– “…hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.” Don’t your fingers get tired from all that cherry picking? Looking at almost 31 years of UAH data is at once enligtening and frustrating. It does show trends, but nothing dispositive about what caused the trends and what they may predict. Does UAH prove that all temp variation is a natural variable? no does UAH prove CO2 has no bearing on temps? no. But as I said above, UAH does invalidate the IPCC and Hanson models. In short the AGW alarmists models are busted and must be disregarded by any honest person. Instead, the honest will continue to watch the monthly UAH data and interpolate and extrapolate that data and follow it where it leads, not torture the data to justify a political agenda (see Hanson, Mann, Romm, Jones, Gore et al.) Are you an honest man Phil?

  23. ” The fan man says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:58 am
    It is also false to say there has been no significant warming in the past 12 years. It might look that way drawing a straight line with deceiving month to month variations, but the average of the decade 2000-2010 is hotter than all other recorded decades before it.
    Take a look at that graph, see where temperature has been from 1990-2000, and then from 2000-2010 and then say again with a straight face that there has been no significant warming in the past 12 years.”
    The last 12 years go from 1998 to 2010, so you should forget about 1990-1998 (or 2000 to 2010, we are talking peak to peak here).
    The linear trend from February 1998 to March 2010 of UAH monthly data is +0.0003°C per month. The prognosis from IPCC is +0.2 to 0.5 °C per decade. And the whole El Niño-year 2010 will probably even be cooler than the whole El Niño-year 1998, and certainly not 0.2°C or more warmer.
    So on what do you base your opinion that it got significantly warmer during the last 12 years?

  24. This is “off topic” sort of: In a book by Ted Nield, Supercontinent, he quotes Richard Feynman. ” NASA, he said, had made the fundamental scientific mistake of confusing their models with reality. Nature … cannot be fooled.” Nield goes on “Models encapsulate our view of the world… models are maps of reality, and like all maps, they have errors and it’s never too long before someone finds something that was missed … scientists forget this and start thinking that model and reality are the same”

  25. Can anyone explain why Spencer’s graph doesn’t show the 13 month running average (red line) after the beginning of 2010? To my inexperienced eye, it would appear that if graphed, the 13 month running average, to date, would equal or exceed that for mid 1998, during the “super” El Nino.

  26. Its so much like the stock market.
    Plot some wiggly charts, correlate with everything that moves, use the best apparent leading indicator to make predictions.
    It will work until it doesn’t.

  27. ” Bill Marsh says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:47 am
    I must not understand the relationship between the daily ASU sat temps and the UAH.
    I tend to read the daily ASU temps, well, daily and every day this month has been in the range of .2 – .33F lower than corresponding days in July of 2009 and it was about .25F lower than all of June. I was a little surprised that the UAH actually increased from June to July.”
    Are you talking about AQUA ch 5? In that case you missed the minus sign (“data as text” shows temperatures in K, currently around 254K).

  28. ” Phil. says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:36 am
    And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.”
    Please add the source.

  29. I think that most datasets show that there was a cooling period beween 1945 and 1979. We did not have satellite data then so we cannot compare like with like but from the surface data we have a cooling of 0.4C. However during the period of 1979 to 2010 we have both data sets, with the surface data suggesting a warming of 0.8C whilst the satellite data gives 0.6C. Although we cannot compare the satellite and surface measures in absolute terms the increases should be comparable. From the previous post from Mckitrick the surface data is highly suspect so the 0.6C figure is more likely to be correct. This suggests that both the 0.4C cooling and 0.8C warming figures from the surface data sets are most likely in error by +0.2 as a result of false corrections, UHI/land use effects etc. This suggests that the real cooling between 1945 and 1979 was 0.6C and the warming between 1979 and 2010 was 0.6C. Strange as it may seem the 30 year period before 1945 also had a warming of at least 0.6C. This looks more like an oscillation than a trend.

  30. The fan man says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:58 am
    So now we can be quite sure that March 2010 was the peak, and we can calculate (according to Goddard’s crest-to-crest principle) a somewhat meaningful trend from February 1998 to March 2010. Result: No significant warming during the last 12 years.
    You might also notice that each trough keeps getting higher and higher.
    It is also false to say there has been no significant warming in the past 12 years. It might look that way drawing a straight line with deceiving month to month variations, but the average of the decade 2000-2010 is hotter than all other recorded decades before it.
    Take a look at that graph, see where temperature has been from 1990-2000, and then from 2000-2010 and then say again with a straight face that there has been no significant warming in the past 12 years.
    ______________________________________________________________________-
    Yes the temps have gotten higher in the short run but what caused it?
    Look what was happening in the solar cycles before cycle 24.
    Solar activity reaches new high – Dec 2, 2003
    ” Geophysicists in Finland and Germany have calculated that the Sun is more magnetically active now than it has been for over a 1000 years. Ilya Usoskin and colleagues at the University of Oulu and the Max-Planck Institute for Aeronomy say that their technique – which relies on a radioactive dating technique – is the first direct quantitative reconstruction of solar activity based on physical, rather than statistical, models (I G Usoskin et al. 2003 Phys. Rev. Lett. 91 211101)
    … the Finnish team was able to extend data on solar activity back to 850 AD. The researchers found that there has been a sharp increase in the number of sunspots since the beginning of the 20th century. They calculated that the average number was about 30 per year between 850 and 1900, and then increased to 60 between 1900 and 1944, and is now at its highest ever value of 76.
    “We need to understand this unprecedented level of activity,” Usoskin told PhysicsWeb.”

    With cycle 24 the sun has gone quiet again. According to NASA and the Solar Dynamics Observatory Mission News
    “We want to compare the sun’s brightness now to its brightness during previous minima and ask: is the sun getting brighter or dimmer?”
    The answer seems to be dimmer. Measurements by a variety of spacecraft indicate a 12-year lessening of the sun’s “irradiance” by about 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at EUV wavelengths.”

    Does the sun effect climate?
    NASA Finds Sun-Climate Connection in Old Nile Records
    Study of Dust in Ice Cores Shows Volcanic Eruptions Interfere with the Effect of Sunspots on Global Climate
    Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ca 11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes.

    Lesson from the past: present insolation minimum holds potential for glacial inception
    The Authors say there will be no returning Ice Age but that is based on the assumption of “continuously increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and no change in the sun.”
    So do you want a glacier sitting on top of Chicago or do you want it one degree warmer? What does your “Precautionary Principle” say is the worst case?

  31. Phil. says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:36 am
    (…)
    And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.
    —–Reply
    Then somebody forgot to notify my tomatoes. You may think I’m joking, but I’m not. Just happens the last time I raised tomatoes was 10 years ago, and I raised a splendid crop–several bushels. This year I have 20 of the most beautiful plants, most in the 3-4 foot range and going strong (thanks, CO2!). I’ve fertilized and watered them much like I did those of a decade ago, but here’s the problem–precious few tomatoes, and just 6 weeks from now frost will be a significant factor in my area.
    Why no tomatoes?
    Well, I looked it up on the Internet and found there are several factors, but one of the most pertinent (especially in my case) is the night-time temperature. See, tomatoes have difficulty producing fruit until the night-time lows consistently exceed 55 degrees F. So I looked at the month of July just past and for my location in Idaho, there was just one nighttime low higher than 55–it was actually 58 that night. There were three nights at 55, and all the rest were lower than that–some significantly so (one nighttime low was only 42 degrees). June was even worse (it froze the morning of the 18th of June, requiring that I replace all plants).
    So you can ballyhoo about global warming all you want, but I agree with Michael Schaefer and his comment that life FLOURISHED (root word there is “flower”, in line with my gardening woes) when the earth was warmer. Or are there folks that simply don’t want me to enjoy tomatoes from my garden?

  32. KevinM says:
    August 3, 2010 at 11:35 am
    Its so much like the stock market.
    Plot some wiggly charts, correlate with everything that moves, use the best apparent leading indicator to make predictions.
    It will work until it doesn’t.
    ___________________________________________
    Scott Armstrong, a professor of marketing at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School has some really good (and humorous) papers on that subject at
    Publications
    Plain Prose: It’s Seldom Seen in Journals: points out how mediocre bafflegab is the best way to get published in peer reviewed journals. Bafflegab Pays
    The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting, is an absolute must read – but do not drink anything while you read it or it will end up on your computer screen.

  33. It may be hot in Russia but after a nice and warm June ( A few days tipping the 30 C mark ) it has been below average ever since. After a very cold winter i was hoping for a decent summer. Unfortunately the beautiful summers with two, three or more heat waves ( 5 days in a row over 25 C with in them two over 30 C ) have been a while ago.

  34. Phil. says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:36 am
    “…And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979…”as no bearing
    Phil, you should know better. This is weather, not climate, and has no bearing on the future trajectory of oscillating weather regimes. Also, don’t be too keen to rely on satellite data, which use algorithms to translate the raw data to temperature anomalies based on historic patterns, many of which no longer apply.
    See Bill Marsh comment (August 3, 2010 at 9:47 am)…
    “…I tend to read the daily ASU temps, well, daily and every day this month has been in the range of .2 – .33F lower than corresponding days in July of 2009 and it was about .25F lower than all of June…

  35. o/t but a must read. In todays london Times, a story about a giant water pocket under a glacier called “tete-rousse ” on mount blanc in France. its on page 25, in the world news section. To condense the story it is saying that if it bursts, lots of life and property will be lost. It says it last burst in 1892 killing at least 175 people. Here is the money quote, and i will copy the last paragraph in full.
    MrVincent said that the most likley explanation for the formation of the pocket was a period of particularly cold temperatures within the glacier, freezing the waters escape routes. THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF GLOBAL WARMING, WHICH HAS REDUCED THE SNOW COVERING ON THE GLACIER AND EXPOSED IT TO THE COLD. This report was filed by Adam Sage – Paris. So what was the cause in 1892?

  36. If you accept the data showing that most of the oceanic ‘ocillators’ are in or entering their cooling phases , solar activity remains in an extended quiescence, and have an appreciation for real hard winters as only a native of Canada or the norther tier US can, you will hew to the parable of The Ant and The Grasshopper. While various ‘grasshoppers’ are pointing to the last few positive temperature trends and smirking, the ‘ants’ (like myself) are preparing for winter.
    I have 5 full cords of split and dry, renewable biomass fuel (aka: firewood) ready for heating my home through the coming winter… and am actively looking for more. Others spend regular hours in the gym and pay for their exercise. I have a wood pile that needs regular attention (cutting, splitting, hauling, stacking), to help keep me fit. As most woodsmen acknowledge, cutting firewood heats you several times before you ever burn it!
    While my house has a high efficiency gas furnace, hot water heater, and super insulation, the winters have a way of knocking down electrical power lines during heavy snow and wind storms. These storms are most often followed by even deeper cold periods and electrical power can be unavailable for days. Yet my home remains a toasty warm haven for storm watching from, thanks to a high efficiency wood stove! When the power grid is ‘up’, the wood stove still provides the majority of the home heating. And when you come in from a cold bit of work outdoors, there is nothing as inviting as backing up to a hot wood stove with a mug of coffee in hand, to warm the extremities and the heart!
    Winter is coming……. Remember the lesson of The Ant and The Grasshopper:
    “To work today is to (h)eat tomorrow!”

  37. It is amusing seeing Hansen clawing to push 2010 a few hundredths over 1998.
    According to his scenario B, 2010 should be more than half a degree warmer than 1998. Even if he gets away with pushing the current year o.01 degrees over 1998 – he is still missing his own forecast by a factor of fifty.

  38. stevengoddard says:
    August 3, 2010 at 12:41 pm
    “Even if he gets away with pushing the current year o.01 degrees over 1998 – he is still missing his own forecast by a factor of fifty.”
    Hey Steve, how is your forecast for 2010 low in arctic ice extent shaping up?
    MJK

  39. >> The fan man says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:58 am
    .. the average of the decade 2000-2010 is hotter than all other recorded decades before it. <<
    ALL of them? All two of them? Shocking!

  40. evanmjones says:
    August 3, 2010 at 8:43 am
    doubling the amount in the atmosphere will not have a material impact on temperature.
    Oh, I think it will. Somewhere in the neighborhood of +1°C.
    I guess this is opinion, evan, because there is no science yet that provides the proof you would need for that statement to be definitive.

  41. cal says:
    August 3, 2010 at 12:01 pm
    “This looks more like an oscillation than a trend.”
    You’re entirely correct.

  42. I guess this is opinion, evan, because there is no science yet that provides the proof you would need for that statement to be definitive.
    Just opinion, quite. It’s not definitive. Just the log theory that is the current wisdom of most skeptical scientists. There will be no decent proof until better observational data is available. Lindzen has made a good start, but a longer interval is needed.
    Observed warming, even stipulating the adjusted data is correct (which I doubt) must call the basic forcing equation into some question.
    There’s also the question of negative vs. positive feedback, where most of the debate currently raging.
    We’ll just have to wait and see. I think we have plenty of time to do that without blowing half of world growth (which won’t even help much if the problem is real).
    I also think that if there turns out there is a real problem, we will be far better able to cope, solve, and adjust than if we have blown the Gross World Product in the mean time.

  43. mjk says:
    August 3, 2010 at 12:49 pm
    stevengoddard says:
    August 3, 2010 at 12:41 pm
    “Even if he gets away with pushing the current year o.01 degrees over 1998 – he is still missing his own forecast by a factor of fifty.”
    Hey Steve, how is your forecast for 2010 low in arctic ice extent shaping up?
    Oh God! The kids are at the computer again. Groan………..

  44. Gail Combs says:
    August 3, 2010 at 1:21 pm
    Is any of those stars near the Katla volcano?….just to buy more popcorn 🙂

  45. evanmjones says:
    August 3, 2010 at 2:09 pm
    “I also think that if there turns out there is a real problem, we will be far better able to cope, solve, and adjust than if we have blown the Gross World Product in the mean time.”
    Fabulous – the entire argument in a nutshell. Why we can’t get people in power to see it this way I just don’t know. I think I want to start a chant going:
    “adaptation – not mitigation”
    do you think it will catch on?
    Rob

  46. Tenuc says:
    August 3, 2010 at 12:27 pm
    Phil, you should know better. This is weather, not climate, and has no bearing on the future trajectory of oscillating weather regimes. Also, don’t be too keen to rely on satellite data, which use algorithms to translate the raw data to temperature anomalies based on historic patterns, many of which no longer apply.
    ___
    Those ‘historic patterns’ in the satellite adjustment algorithms, just wish we could definitively find if there is some upward trend built in to those patterns used in the algorithms, for as time passes it seems it must be so. The satellite temps are tracking UHI influenced surface temps too closely for this not to be true since satellites should not see or record the UHI component affecting only a small percentage of just the land area.

  47. The fan man says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:58 am
    but the average of the decade 2000-2010 is hotter than all other recorded decades before it.
    ==========================================================
    Hotter!! ROTFL
    Say that again with a straight face.
    You’re not even talking one whole degree!

  48. @Marge
    “Can anyone explain why Spencer’s graph doesn’t show the 13 month running average (red line) after the beginning of 2010?”
    To calculate the 13 month running average for a month requires the data from the previous 6 months and the future 6 months.

  49. NK says:
    August 3, 2010 at 8:36 am
    there is no catastophic temperature increase result caused by the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.
    Because of the cooling feedback of H2O from rising co2 there could actually be cooling. The climate models that go on and on about warming from co2 do not take H2O into account well.

  50. Phil. says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:36 am
    And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.
    You want the reader to infer that co2 is the cause yet you don’t provide evidence for it. The warmth is from El Nino.
    The earth has been cooling since 1998. Yet you want the reader to infer that it is warming.
    Your method is called propaganda Phil.
    Global warming is not happening. Co2 does not control climate.

  51. ok…so i agree that since we stepped up in 1998 we have stayed more or less level. and for the record, i am HIGHLY skeptical of AGW and am looking forward to nice recovery of ice in the arctic in the next 3 to 5 years….having said that, it seems a bit doubleminded to say it has cooled since 1998 when we are picking a spike year. seems more reasonable to say that it has remained more or less flat in the past decade or that the hottest year on record was now 12 years ago, which is at least interesting when you imagine how much CO2 we have released during that time. it seems that if CO2 was the boogeyman it is made out to be by the alarmists, we wouldn’t go 12 years without a new high, particularly when we have had 3 or 4 El Ninos during that time.
    ok…that’s my $.02

  52. “It is amusing seeing Hansen clawing to push 2010 a few hundredths over 1998.
    According to his scenario B, 2010 should be more than half a degree warmer than 1998. Even if he gets away with pushing the current year o.01 degrees over 1998 – he is still missing his own forecast by a factor of fifty.”
    -Goddard
    He who wrote Austin Powers’ stories had Hansen in mind when he depicted Dr. Evil.

  53. What I find interesting is the rebound of the 5 and 10 mb readings to levels of a few years ago on Dr. Spencers site. They just spiked up this summer. Rate of increase seems a little greater than normal.

  54. Enneagram says:
    August 3, 2010 at 2:35 pm
    Gail Combs says:
    August 3, 2010 at 1:21 pm
    Is any of those stars near the Katla volcano?….just to buy more popcorn 🙂
    ___________________________________
    No opposite end of Iceland. This looks like possible rumblings of a volcanic sea mount so it could be very interesting depending on how deep the water is.
    ere is the eruption of another sea mount. http://www.barking-moonbat.com/index.php/weblog/more_bothersome_volcanoes/

  55. markinaustin says:
    August 3, 2010 at 8:11 pm
    it seems a bit doubleminded to say it has cooled since 1998 when we are picking a spike year.
    El Ninos are a natural part of climate. If 1998 is an unfair, so to speak, spike then we’d have to go through the entire temperature record and take out all El Ninos and also, to be even handed, so to speak, all La Ninas too. But the are a natural part of climate. If you start at 2001 instead of 1998 there is still cooling till now. But there has been El Ninos and La Ninas since then too.
    It probably makes more sense to take a longer time period, say 1000 years. and clearly there has been cooling since then.
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_S5dFdpF6xm0/Sw1zpDmVKII/AAAAAAAAAvw/aNNJgsf4Q6s/s1600/medieval-warm-period-little-ice-age-chart.jpg
    A better graph:
    http://pages.science-skeptical.de/MWP/Loehle-2007.html

  56. Not surprising?
    Two years ago we had the same predictions of plummeting temperatures here. Yet despite a weak El Nino being well and truly finished along with two years of much lower than normal solar activity, global temperatures are still on the rise and many people are still in denial about it. When are people going to learn that cherry picking a few places that are cooler (or warmer) is completely irrelevant? It looks like all the money spent by fossil fuel companies on propaganda, instead of things like safety precautions in off-shore drilling, has had the desired effect.

  57. Jimbo says:
    August 3, 2010 at 4:32 pm
    “This is not surprising as the air temperature is strongly correlated with the SST but lags behind by about 3 months. Expect drops in the months ahead. – Anthony”
    The NOAA seems to think the same. Look at the graphs 6 to 8 months from now.
    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/glbT2mSea.gif
    I wonder how they are going to hide the decline?”
    Whats really going to be interesting is to see whether we see the anomaly drop below what we saw following the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 and if it does, how long it will hold below zero.
    If the anomaly drops below zero going into Winter then holds below zero for up to 12 months this could have significant ramifications for next years Arctic Ice.
    The 13 month running mean for UAH temp anomaly has not dropped below zero since 1994 so I would have to anticipate a significant recovery for Arctic Ice if it does so in the coming year.

  58. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
    August 3, 2010 at 6:37 pm

    The earth has been cooling since 1998. Yet you want the reader to infer that it is warming.
    Have you got any evidence at all that this is true. Even WUWT posted a graph recently which showed that the OLS trends for all 4 main datasets were positive since 1998.
    http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/trend.png
    This, remember, is during a period when solar activity has declined significantly and, according to Easterbrook, the PDO has shifted (since 1999) to a cool phase. The only reason temperatures peaked higher in 1998 was because the 1997/98 El Nino was considerably stronger than the recent one.

  59. ” mjk says:
    August 3, 2010 at 12:49 pm
    Hey Steve, how is your forecast for 2010 low in arctic ice extent shaping up?
    MJK”
    Just scroll down a bit and read “Sea Ice News #16, posted Aug 1, 2010.
    (And now you feel silly, do you not?)

  60. ” Phil. says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:36 am
    And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.”
    For some reason Phil. does not want to say where he got this information from. It cannot be AQUA ch5, since even simpletons know the difference between “troposphere” (something rather complicated) and the 600hPa-layer (something rather simple). But who publishes the temperature of the troposphere that fast?

  61. Alexej Buergin says:
    August 3, 2010 at 11:48 am
    ” Phil. says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:36 am
    And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.”
    Please add the source.

    I was referring to RSS and Spencer’s site
    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
    which has been showing temperatures higher than any previous values over the 79-09 period. However yesterday Spencer made an adjustment to his site which had the effect of shifting the 2010 values lower wrt the rest.
    NK says:
    August 3, 2010 at 11:11 am
    But as I said above, UAH does invalidate the IPCC and Hanson models. In short the AGW alarmists models are busted and must be disregarded by any honest person. Instead, the honest will continue to watch the monthly UAH data and interpolate and extrapolate that data and follow it where it leads, not torture the data to justify a political agenda (see Hanson, Mann, Romm, Jones, Gore et al.) Are you an honest man Phil?

    It’s very difficult to follow the UAH data since their algorithm is constantly being changed, as reported above they have just done another ‘intercalibration’ and the results have changed yet again. That’s the fourth change this year, the RSS results seem to be a much more stable source.
    Tenuc says:
    August 3, 2010 at 12:27 pm
    Phil. says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:36 am
    “…And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979…”as no bearing
    Phil, you should know better. This is weather, not climate, and has no bearing on the future trajectory of oscillating weather regimes. Also, don’t be too keen to rely on satellite data, which use algorithms to translate the raw data to temperature anomalies based on historic patterns, many of which no longer apply.

    The data I was referring to were not anomalies but actual temperatures.

  62. Alexej Buergin says:
    August 4, 2010 at 1:01 am
    ” Phil. says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:36 am
    And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.”
    For some reason Phil. does not want to say where he got this information from.

    Answered earlier, you’ll just have to curb your impatience and wait for the vagaries of the penalty moderation imposed on me, because I have an ‘edu’ email address, to pan out. By the way you would come over as less snarky if you said ‘has not yet said’ rather than the untrue ‘does not want to’.
    It cannot be AQUA ch5, since even simpletons know the difference between “troposphere” (something rather complicated) and the 600hPa-layer (something rather simple).
    Perhaps that simpleton would be advised to learn about the AQUA ch5, if he did he would find that it includes data from throughout the troposphere and is not confined to a single layer, but then what would you expect from a simpleton?
    Look up Weighting functions, for Ch 05 it ranges from the surface to ~20km, peaking at ~5km.
    But who publishes the temperature of the troposphere that fast?
    UAH, RSS to name two.

  63. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
    August 3, 2010 at 6:37 pm
    Phil. says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:36 am
    “And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.”
    You want the reader to infer that co2 is the cause yet you don’t provide evidence for it. The warmth is from El Nino.

    Really, I didn’t mention CO2, the warmth in 1998 was also from El Niño
    The earth has been cooling since 1998. Yet you want the reader to infer that it is warming.
    What the reader infers is up to him, the facts are the facts.
    Your method is called propaganda Phil.
    Global warming is not happening. Co2 does not control climate.

    Your spin seems more like propaganda to me, absolute opinions presented as facts.

  64. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
    August 3, 2010 at 10:04 pm
    markinaustin says:
    August 3, 2010 at 8:11 pm
    it seems a bit doubleminded to say it has cooled since 1998 when we are picking a spike year.
    ….It probably makes more sense to take a longer time period, say 1000 years. and clearly there has been cooling since then.
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_S5dFdpF6xm0/Sw1zpDmVKII/AAAAAAAAAvw/aNNJgsf4Q6s/s1600/medieval-warm-period-little-ice-age-chart.jpg
    ______________________________________________________________________
    That is exactly what this paper did. It looked at the entire Holecene in the Arctic:
    Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic
    “..Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ca 11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3° C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present… As summer solar energy decreased in the second half of the Holocene, glaciers reestablished or advanced, sea ice expanded, and the flow of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean diminished. Late Holocene cooling reached its nadir during the Little Ice Age (about 1250-1850 AD), when sun-blocking volcanic eruptions and perhaps other causes added to the orbital cooling, allowing most Arctic glaciers to reach their maximum Holocene extent…”
    This paper also agrees that we are at the point in the earth’s Milankovitch cycle that should usher in an ice age. The biggest question of course is why we are not covered in ice yet.
    Lesson from the past: present insolation minimum holds potential for glacial inception (2007)
    “Because the intensities of the 397 ka BP and present insolation minima are very similar, we conclude that under natural boundary conditions the present insolation minimum holds the potential to terminate the Holocene interglacial. Our findings support the Ruddiman hypothesis [Ruddiman, W., 2003. The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era began thousands of years ago. Climate Change 61, 261–293], which proposes that early anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission prevented the inception of a glacial that would otherwise already have started….”
    Orthodox Climate Scientists assume “early anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission prevented the inception of a glacial that would otherwise already have started… The biggest problem with this part of the CAGW theory, is it assumes no changes in the energy from the sun as received by the earth. However during the 20th century the sun has been very active according to this paper and NASA This is no longer true as we enter the new century according to the Solar Dynamics Observatory Mission News
    Therefore actual data shows the earth is gradually headed downhill towards another glaciation, the only question is when and how. A quiet sun, cool ocean phases and a major volcanic eruption would be my guess as the trigger point. CO2 warming can not counteract the combined effects of the other big three. As the oceans cool the rate of CO2 absorption will increase.
    Abrupt Climate Change: Should We Be Worried? – Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
    “Most of the studies and debates on potential climate change, along with its ecological and economic impacts, have focused on the ongoing buildup of industrial greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and a gradual increase in global temperatures. This line of thinking, however, fails to consider another potentially disruptive climate scenario. It ignores recent and rapidly advancing evidence that Earth’s climate repeatedly has shifted abruptly and dramatically in the past, and is capable of doing so in the future.
    Fossil evidence clearly demonstrates that Earthvs climate can shift gears within a decade….
    But the concept remains little known and scarcely appreciated in the wider community of scientists, economists, policy makers, and world political and business leaders. Thus, world leaders may be planning for climate scenarios of global warming that are opposite to what might actually occur…

    As far as I am concerned neglecting change towards a COOLING world is down right criminal negligence – my biggest gripe with CAGW.
    We are so busy watching the yapping little poodle we can not see the mammoth that just walked into the room.

  65. Me “Can anyone explain why Spencer’s graph doesn’t show the 13 month running average (red line) after the beginning of 2010?”
    Joe Miner says:
    August 3, 2010 at 5:20 pm To calculate the 13 month running average for a month requires the data from the previous 6 months and the future 6 months.
    Thanks for your response, Joe. That definition would explain why the last average is for Jan 2010. So, one would need to wait until Jan 2011 to compare the peaks in the 13 month running average UAH Global Temperature Anomaly for 1998 and 2010? Is that right?

  66. Alexej Buergin says:
    August 4, 2010 at 1:01 am
    ” Phil. says:
    August 3, 2010 at 9:36 am
    And yet this July was the hottest month recorded for the troposphere since 1979.”
    For some reason Phil. does not want to say where he got this information from. It cannot be AQUA ch5, since even simpletons know the difference between “troposphere” (something rather complicated) and the 600hPa-layer (something rather simple). But who publishes the temperature of the troposphere that fast?

    Not true I responded before your post and afterwards, you should ask the moderators what they’ve done with my posts.

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