Above: Sea Surface Temperature anomaly map from NOAA/NESDIS. Note the La Nina building in the Pacific.
By Dr. Roy Spencer
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) measured by the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite continue the fall which began several months ago.
The following plot, updated through July 29, 2010 shows that the cooling in the Nino34 region in the tropical east Pacific continue to be well ahead of the cooling in the global average SST, something we did not see during the 2007-08 La Nina event (click on it for the large, undistorted version; note the global SST values have been multiplied by 10):
Does anyone know of a good article that provides good basic information (periodicity, historical range of associated change, etc.) about all the known cyclic/periodic occurrences, such as the PDO, AMO, La Nina, El Nino, etc? Ideally a single article that covers them all, and any known ties between them… Thanks in advance for any suggestions!
Bob Tisdale says:
August 3, 2010 at 8:59 am
The 1998 El Nino fall was at a time of a healthy, ramping Solar Cycle.
Not this one. That much is different.
Thanks for the best laugh of the day!
Last but not least: This is a more serious map
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
rbateman says:
August 3, 2010 at 11:40 am
You are correct. Now it is quite different, so do not expect “weather as usual ” as La Nina “usual” consequences in US weather . Everything will be unusual. Buy more popcorn!
George E. Smith says:
August 3, 2010 at 11:26 am
Well I don’t know what sort of thermometers NOAA is using but they need to get some new ones.
This kind:
http://www.google.com.pe/imgres?imgurl=http://www.brf-puericultura.com/images/top_termometrobano_pato.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.brf-puericultura.com/aseo-infantil-termometros-bano-c-29_52.html%3Fsort%3D2d%26page%3D1%26osCsid%3Dc9b49472094efe45d130307dc53f879c&usg=__d_D0rx3IM8zq2-CVvfXCptHr1Os=&h=400&w=500&sz=17&hl=es&start=0&tbnid=Jr9pWinWVrgxiM:&tbnh=143&tbnw=167&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dtermometro%2Bpatito%26hl%3Des%26sa%3DG%26biw%3D996%26bih%3D592%26gbv%3D2%26tbs%3Disch:1&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=706&vpy=236&dur=1147&hovh=201&hovw=251&tx=175&ty=156&ei=OG1YTOXCPIq4sQOh3ayqCA&page=1&ndsp=15&ved=1t:429,r:9,s:0
rbateman says:
August 3, 2010 at 11:40 am
“…The 1998 El Nino fall was at a time of a healthy, ramping Solar Cycle.
Not this one. That much is different…”
This is what makes weather/climate so enjoyable – it never seems to repeat the exact same pattern twice. Worth remembering that we also have Katla hanging like the proverbial ‘sword of Damocles’ hanging over our heads this time!
Kirk 8:03 AM,
According to an unbiased source (ahem) the AMO is headed down:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation
John F. Hultquist says:
August 3, 2010 at 10:36 am
Philip Finck says: “Hold it now!”
August 3, 2010 at 8:10 am
“Graphs and charts are frequently plotted in a manner that illustrates a particular point. In this case the idea is to show how the “global” oceans that are massive and slow to change have a pattern-of-change often but not always similar to the Nino 3-4 region. With out the X10 factor this would be less clear. I commend the chartist for thinking of this and for making it clear, at least to me, what has been done. Others may not agree.”
Right, the convention for showing two data sets with vastly different scales on a common graph is to show the scale for the y-axis of one data set on the left side of the graph with one common colour for scale, data points and trend line and the scale for the other y-axis on the right side of the graph with another corresponding colour that applies to its respective data points and trend line.
Microsoft Excel permits to do that with ease, but it may not be so easy to accomplish that with the graphing tool used by Dr. Spencer to construct the SST anomaly graph.
The Microsoft Excel help text for adding a second y-axis reads:
Add a second axis
When the values in a 2-D chart vary widely from data series (data series: Related data points that are plotted in a chart. Each data series in a chart has a unique color or pattern and is represented in the chart legend. You can plot one or more data series in a chart. Pie charts have only one data series.) to data series in a 2-D chart, or when you have mixed types of data (such as price and volume), you can plot one or more data series on a secondary value (y) axis. The scale of the secondary axis reflects the values for the associated data series.
1.On a chart sheet (chart sheet: A sheet in a workbook that contains only a chart. A chart sheet is beneficial when you want to view a chart or a PivotChart report separately from worksheet data or a PivotTable report.) or in an embedded chart (embedded chart: A chart that is placed on a worksheet rather than on a separate chart sheet. Embedded charts are beneficial when you want to view or print a chart or a PivotChart report with its source data or other information in a worksheet.), click the data series that you want to plot along a secondary value axis.
2.On the Format menu, click Selected Data Series.
3.On the Axis tab, click Secondary axis.
Tip After you add a secondary value axis to a chart, you can also add a secondary category (x) axis, which may be useful in an xy (scatter) chart. Select a chart that displays the secondary value axis, and then click Chart Options on the Chart menu. On the Axes tab, select the Category (X) axis check box.
Hope that helps,
Walter
The switch to this La Nina was evident by November 15th, 2009. The Enso is (usually) born at the Equator 130E to 155E – 150M to 200M depth – where the deep ocean ends and warmer-than-average water or cooler-than-average water is pushed down to 150M to 200M depth and the circulation pattern starts going back to the East. Nov. 15, 2009 cross-section.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/ocean/real_time/xzmaps!20091115!Anomaly!Temperature!chart.gif
This counter-circulation is called the Equatorial Under Current or the Cromwell Current.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_m5SP3FgQSPY/S80EYBQcd2I/AAAAAAAAAQ0/Tzcmdv3Kg7g/s1600/Picture2.png
It is almost like a continuous circulation loop (East-West at the surface, West-East at depth) although it can be short-circuited by other factors – there are also two other significant ocean currents which feed into the Enso as well, the North-Equatorial Counter-Current (left-over from the previous Enso event) and the Peru-Humbolt current (which flows up from the southern ocean). So, you have an El Nino – its warm waters are pushed down near Indonesia to spend one year in purgatory in the Cromwell Current where it can then resurface at the Galapagos Islands and join in a new El Nino party. Meanwhile, the Trade Winds are making sure this circulation pattern continues indefinitely sometimes speeding up, sometimes slowing down, sometimes driven by the temperature of the ocean itself. In other words, an oscillation.
We can also see that an El Nino is going to follow this La Nina and it will likely start earlier than the normal cycle although there is still lots of cooler than normal water to sustain the La Nina for quite awhile.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/ocean/real_time/xzmaps!20100803!Anomaly!Temperature!chart.gif
Your money should now be on an El Nino following this one and while this circulation pattern provides some predictability, it is not a sure thing.
I think most of us here are agreed that there is a greenhouse effect from CO2 — we’re just skeptical about how catastrophic (or controllable) it will be. Were there no greenhouse effect from H2O, CO2, etc, the earth’s temperature would be 30-some dC colder than it is. Think moon.
“”” Enneagram says:
August 3, 2010 at 12:26 pm
George E. Smith says:
August 3, 2010 at 11:26 am
Well I don’t know what sort of thermometers NOAA is using but they need to get some new ones.
This kind: “””
I guess they couldn’t get a licence to put out a Mickey Mouse Thermometer.
I predict this dead cat will continue bouncing for 15 years or more. We’ll see SST’s and LT temps see-sawing as the ocean burps out the excess heat it has acquired since the 1960’s. But the trend will be downwards as OHC falls. I did a comparison graph of the end of the 1800’s against recent temps which indicates how it might go. The timing and magnitudes of the two big el nino’s in 1879 and 1890 and the two in 1998 and 2009 are uncannily similar, as was the timing of the solar cycles.
http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/sst-ssn1870.jpg
George E. Smith says:
August 3, 2010 at 11:26 am
“Well I don’t know what sort of thermometers NOAA is using but they need to get some new ones.”
I’m always interested in ground truth, so please tell us if you see consistent discrepancies from your vantage point, or is this just this month? BTW, as an old Baja trekker, I’m curious whether you’re amongst the hoi polloi of San Felipe or the jet-setters of Cabo.
rbateman says: “The 1998 El Nino fall was at a time of a healthy, ramping Solar Cycle.
Not this one. That much is different.”
That much might be different, but you’re also going to have to consider that ENSO events also shift cloud cover around the tropical Pacific. Convection and clouds accompany the warm water as it sloshes east and west. The variations in Downward Shortwave Radiation due to the changes in cloud amount can peak as high as 45watts/sq. meter, dwarfing any perceived impact from the solar cycle.
“Rational Debate says:
August 3, 2010 at 11:40 am
Does anyone know of a good article that provides good basic information (periodicity, historical range of associated change, etc.) about all the known cyclic/periodic occurrences, such as the PDO, AMO, La Nina, El Nino, etc? Ideally a single article that covers them all, and any known ties between them… Thanks in advance for any suggestions.”
A good question.
Over two years ago I started stating that what really mattered for the temperature of the troposphere was the combined net effect of ALL the ocean cycles at any given moment.
“We need to identify all the separate oceanic cycles around the globe and ascertain both the current state of their respective warming or cooling modes and, moreover, the intensity of each, both at the time of measurement and in the future.”
from here: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=1302&linkbox=true&position=6
No such assessment exists or has ever been attempted so far as I know.
Tenuc says:
August 3, 2010 at 1:10 pm
rbateman says:
August 3, 2010 at 11:40 am
“…The 1998 El Nino fall was at a time of a healthy, ramping Solar Cycle.
Not this one. That much is different…”
This is what makes weather/climate so enjoyable – it never seems to repeat the exact same pattern twice. Worth remembering that we also have Katla hanging like the proverbial ‘sword of Damocles’ hanging over our heads this time!
_________________________________________________________________-
Not to mention several others:
http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/
especially the Russian ones (five code orange or yellow)
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/avoreport.php?view=kaminfo
Kirk 8:03 AM,
According to an unbiased source (ahem) the AMO is headed down:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation
________________________________
Another set of graphs:
From NOAA: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.timeseries.gif
http://i39.tinypic.com/m7wf7t.jpg
http://i40.tinypic.com/11j98bl.png
And site with lots of graphs: http://research.iarc.uaf.edu/multidecadal_variability/intro.php
Rational Debate says: “The problem is that all too often with linked jpg graphs, as with this one, there is no attribution included.”
Sorry. I normally include a link to the specific post a graph was taken from. Here’s a link to the post:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/07/june-2010-sst-anomaly-update.html
The data source is listed at the bottom.
GW wrote: “In a guest post earlier this year, you discussed how unlikely a LaNina was (this year) following an El Nino Modoki, which the last one was. I am wondering if you have, or will be, preparing an update theorizing what is different this time, as it appears that a moderate or even a strong LaNina is virtually inevitable at this point.”
The post you are referring to is this one:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/05/typical-average-el-nino-traditional-el.html
In it, I didn’t attempt to explain why some El Nino events are followed by La Nina events and others are not, so I have no plans for a post you’re asking about. Sorry.
Basil says: “I remember the thread — where Bob went out on a limb, and predicted there wouldn’t be a La Nina this year.”
I did not make or imply a prediction in that post, Basil. I showed that the majority of El Nino Modoki events are not followed by La Nina events. That’s all.
Here’s are the links to the two cross posts:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/05/typical-average-el-nino-traditional-el.html
And here at WUWT:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/01/history-suggests-dont-bet-on-la-nina-this-year/
A La Nina may affect the bragging rights battle AGW vs Anti-AGW …
… But Clear La Nina Skies mean BIG Arctic Melts. It appears Aug 5-on (and for at least 5 days) will be High Pressure ~ usually sunny.
If the Arctic melts off (a question literally “up in the Air”), it is 3% of the Earth’s surface. Times the amount of Sun difference between Ice & SeaWater ~ 6 degrees F for the Planet (or 12oF Northern Hemisphere), right ?
Tell me why this is not the REAL explanation for the Ice Age End.
Nino34 region in the tropical east Pacific continue to be well ahead of the cooling in the global average SST, something we did not see during the 2007-08 La Nina
There is magenta beginning to head west of the Galápagos Islands:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/eqp/sst30d.gif
Nino34 region cooling looks to continue.
Charles Wilson:
What?
Rational Debate says: “Does anyone know of a good article that provides good basic information (periodicity, historical range of associated change, etc.) about all the known cyclic/periodic occurrences, such as the PDO, AMO, La Nina, El Nino, etc? Ideally a single article that covers them all, and any known ties between them… Thanks in advance for any suggestions!”
How basic are you looking for?