By Steve Goddard
As La Niña takes hold in South America, we are seeing something I’m not sure I have ever seen before. Temperatures in some parts of the Andes Mountains of Bolivia are forecast to average below -5C this week. The entire country of Bolivia is located inside the Tropic of Capricorn.
Closeup below :
Temperatures are 6-10C below normal in much of South America.
The image below shows Unisys SST anomalies combined with NCEP forecast anomalies. Note how sea surface temperatures affect the land temperatures.
Our friend Joe Romm is very focused on the Northeastern US, but there is a whole big world out there.
Cold Weather Proves Killer in Parts of South America (Source: Time newsfeed)
Strange but true: despite blazing hot temperatures, sometimes in the triple digits, sweeping across the United States, the opposite is true in much of South America where a cold front has actually claimed more than 400 lives in parts of Peru and Argentina. The temperatures, which have hovered in the upper 30s in the southern part of the continent qualify as a rather typical winter by North American standards. But in some places, like the Andes mountains the thermometer has dropped as low as -11 degrees F and decimated alpaca and cattle herds. The usually subtropical areas affected are particularly vulnerable because the populations are largely poor, live in conditions that are not equipped for cold weather and the governments do not have the infrastructure to handle winter conditions.
As La Niña develops, climate alarmists will soon be seeking shelter from the storm.
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Marcia, Marcia
280 is definitely a beautiful drive, and almost straddles the San Andreas Fault from Hwy 92 to Daly City!
Jeff
Ever try taking the Bay Bridge into the city at morning rush hour? I’d shoot myself if I had to do that every day.
Stephen Wilde says:
July 30, 2010 at 7:10 am
When the jet streams move equatorward …..
quote from Kristian Birkeland’s monograph Norwegian Aurora Polaris Expedition 1902-1903:
(Chapter VI. On Possible Electric Phenomena in Solar Systems and Nebulae)
http://www.plasma-universe.com/index.ph … nd_Nebulae
Kristian Birkeland wrote:We will now pass on to experiments that in my opinion have brought about the most important discoveries in the long chain of experimental analogies to terrestrial and cosmic phenomena that I have produced. In the experiments represented in figs. 248 a-e, there are some small white patches on the globe, which are due to a kind of discharge that, under ordinary circumstances, is disruptive, and which radiates from points on the cathode. If the globe has a smooth surface and is not magnetised, the disruptive discharges come rapidly one after another, and are distributed more or less uniformly all over the globe (see a). On the other hand, if the globe is magnetised, even very slightly, the patches from which the disruptive discharges issue, arrange themselves then in two zones parallel with the magnetic equator of the globe; and the more powerfully the globe is magnetised, the nearer do they come to the equator (see b, c, d). With a constant magnetisation, the zones of patches will be found near the equator if the discharge-tension is low, but far from the equator if the tension is high.
And:
First Global Connection Between Earth And Space Weather Found
09.12.06
Weather on Earth has a surprising connection to space weather occurring high in the electrically-charged upper atmosphere, known as the ionosphere, according to new results from NASA satellites.
>>wws
>>now controlled by true nihilists, people who would rather see
>>everything they control destroyed, even entire countries, before
>>they will accept political defeat
Strange, but true. I came across a senior Labour party activist who admitted that they wanted to see the UK destroyed.
(Apparently because we were rich and decadent and owed a huge debt to the Third World, and the only way to repay that debt was to become poorer that the Third World and submit to their rule. I did question his logic, but the guy was as much beyond reason as any religious fanatic.)
Nasa link:
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2006/space_weather_link
Please, don´t blame that little girl, La Niña, but to his father, the Sun, he doesn´t give her enough heat.
stevengoddard says:
July 30, 2010 at 10:13 am
Bob,
You don’t need very cold winter temperatures to form glaciers – they just have to remain cool in the summer.
You should know that down here, above 4000 mts. snows DURING SUMMER TIME, not during winter time. Above 4500 mts. it is always below 0°C.
http://elcomercio.pe/impresa/notas/nevada-ticlio-interrumpio-15-horas-transito-carretera-central/20100325/451575
…and don´t be surprised by the high altitude numbers, the central highway, going eastward from the peruvian capital to the sierras, reaches 5,050 meters of altitude at its highest point. The railway crosses the mountains a bit lower, at 4950 meters high.
>>bubba
>>I really believe that the unprecedented number of deaths in
>>S. America could have been avoided if the governments had not
>>been bamboozled by the warm-earthers.
It is not only governments that get bamboozled, but industry too.
A leading UK airline only stocked 3-days worth of de-icing fluid last winter, because the warmists said it was going to be a mild winter.
Needless to say, this same leading airline spent much of the winter grounded. The fools will never lean.
.
Weather in Oruro, Bolivia, general elevation circa 12,200 feet
http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Weather/C/Oruro/SLOR.htm
Location of Oruro
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=-17.96280,-67.07625&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=49.978077,77.958984&ie=UTF8&ll=-17.978733,-67.08252&spn=7.560798,9.744873&t=h&z=7
(N.B. The Google Maps general elevation contour for Oruro is 3720m and not 3072m as stated on Tu Tiempo dot Net)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=-17.96280,-67.07625&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=49.978077,77.958984&ie=UTF8&t=p&ll=-17.963792,-67.072477&spn=0.039435,0.055189&z=14
Ralph says:
July 30, 2010 at 5:36 pm
>>bubba
>>I really believe that the unprecedented number of deaths in
>>S. America could have been avoided if the governments had not
>>been bamboozled by the warm-earthers.
You won´t believe it, but many journalists here are blaming this COLD to Climate Change/Global Warming!
stevengoddard says:
July 30, 2010 at 10:54 am
John,
Now explain why GISTEMP is going up 7X faster than satellite data.
Please don’t forget that GISS has an outstanding coverage in case of the Arctic regions. The dataset is compiled by one of the world’s top climate scientists.
/sarc
This week Peru’s capital, Lima, has recorded its lowest temperatures in 46 years at 8 centigrade. In Peru’s hot and humid Amazon region, temperatures have also dropped to as low as 9 centigrade. So far this year, the jungle region(*) has already recorded five cold spells
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=361111&CategoryId=14095
(*) The TROPICAL amazon basin!
mjk writes:
“Cherry picking as always Steve.”
No, he is emphasizing something of great importance to many of us and especially to me, the El Nina conditions in South America. I moved to Florida to escape winter, but the last two years we had a Yankee winter. Another one and I will be forced to move south.
Also, why does Steve need to emphasize warm conditions on the planet when the Once-MSM is screaming at the top of its lungs that billions are dying from global warming. Steve provides balance. You should come here to find that and you should appreciate it.
Last time I saw any record published, BART was reported (in the Sac Bee) to cost $5000 per passenger-mile per year.
Have they improved their efficiency of destroying wealth to indulge green fantasies?
Stephen Wilde says:
July 30, 2010 at 4:05 pm
“Geoff Sharp says:
July 30, 2010 at 8:44 am
Stephen Wilde says:
July 30, 2010 at 7:10 am
Steve, this graph is interesting. There is a relationship between the AAO(SAM) & SOI that is consistent. Notice how the AAO is neg during El Ninos and pos during La Ninas, if this follows history a very highly positive AAO might suggest a large La Nina on the way?
http://www.landscheidt.info/images/soi_sam.png
Maybe the reduction in latitude of the westerlies allows the equatorial easterly trade winds to blow stronger? Some say the atmosphere related oscillations are linked to UV rates, I have a story and prediction here:
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189
“Geoff Sharp says:
July 30, 2010 at 10:14 pm ”
Thanks Geoff. I’ll give that some thought.
I haven’t yet refined my concept to deal with the variable interactions between individual components of the air circulation system. If I do get to that stage then I think we’ll see interesting ways in which latitudinal air circulation shifts feed back into ENSO and other oceanic events.
It might be possible to integrate Bob Tisdale’s fine ENSO work with my broader picture for the benefit of both of us.
All I’ve done so far is try to identify a coherent general overview to explain longer term shifts but even that is often overturned locally and regionally on shorter time scales.
It seems to hold good multidecadally (and longer) and globally though.
Steve, a small correction: the blue areas in the map are in the Argentinean side on the Andes. It is called the Puna. Bolivia is a little to the north. Even so, the map for the Bolivia area should be blue, not green.
This morning was about -13ºC in Bariloche, (Patagonia) where Brazilian tourists are trying to ski in lots of fresh powder snow. The east side of Chubut province got a heavy snowafall, and the new incoming polar freezing wave is scaring everybody in Argentina. There a new snowfall forecast for tomorrow or Sunday at the center of the country, where I live (32ºS) and government emergency teams are taking all the poor people they can from the streets –or they will freeze to death.
Geoff Sharp said:
“Some say the atmosphere related oscillations are linked to UV rates, I have a story and prediction here:
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189”
I suspect that UV levels are relevant in some way as also could be the speed of the solar wind or it’s degree of turbulence in response to solar surface variability and of course there would be an effect on cosmic ray amounts.
Whatever the proximate cause I think the effect which actually affects climate from above is solar induced differential variability in the rate of energy flux upward through the various layers of the atmosphere. If that affects the temperature of the stratosphere then the strength of the inversion at the tropopause is affected and I see that as the way the tropospheric pressure distribution is affected from above.
A cooler stratosphere with a weaker inversion at the tropopause must allow faster energy flux out of the troposphere with both a poleward shift in the jets and a raising of the height of the tropopause. The opposite for a warmer stratosphere.
I’m pretty sure that that is the right track and your work is highly relevant but we need to better link changes in stratospheric temperatures with external solar effects. I’m sure the link exists despite Leif’s negative comments.
booze for cars
bubbagyro says: (July 30, 2010 at 8:58 am) I really believe that the unprecedented number of deaths in S. America could have been avoided if the governments had not been bamboozled by the warm-earthers. …
All you say in this comment has continued to go around and around in my mind for some time now. Anyone, and in particular governments, promoting “global warming” without a balance of concern and preparation for cold events such as those in South America and lands above China right now must accept responsibility for the deaths and despair that cold has brought.
For governments, again in particular, tunnel vision is not an virtue; it is a crime.
mjk m@6:05 (30th July)
What was that about the rest of the world baking (during the last Northern winter)? It was a cooler than usual summer in Victoria this year (Australia) after last year’s terrible summer. I was there at the time; personal experience (and had just travelled over from the Northern winter here). They are now having a very cool wet winter (family personal experience).
It might be baking in Russia right now, but not here in south west England. We haven’t had much heat since 2006. I feel the heat but have not needed the AC once in the bedroom this year (even last year I used it a couple of times) and have hardly used it in the kitchen; which has large heat-collecting windows. This observation is personal experience, not computer-generated predictions!
JohnnyD @ur momisugly 7:30am
“Climate alarmists” are concerned about the ‘long term trends’? Why then do they not go back to the MWP as a (relatively short) long term, or go back to look at data in geological terms?
stevengoddard says:
July 30, 2010 at 10:53 am
John Finn
I’d be happy to explain your graph to you. You cherry picked the start date at the peak of a La Nina and your end date at the peak of an El Nino. Thus the trend is going up.
Steve
I didn’t “cherry pick” anything. I used the same period as the plot Geoff Sharp linked to. If Geoff has misrepresented your graph I suggest you take it up with him.
Incidentally, I don’t believe a 10 year trend tells us anything. One reason being the ENSO factor
which you alluded to. However, this hasn’t stopped posters on WUWT presenting graphs which begin in 1998 and end in 2008.
I take it you wouldn’t dream of using a trend since 2007 to show “arctic ice recovery” this autumn.
Ref – Gail Combs says:
July 30, 2010 at 12:47 pm
Pascvaks says:
July 30, 2010 at 12:29 pm
http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/8615/allpaleotemp.png
“A bit of explanation please. The left side is the present , correct? The zero line is the current global average temperature? If that is true we are a wee bit cold at present – as in near glacial temps are we not?”
__________________________
The left side IS the present. The zero line is NOT the current global average temperature; it’s a SWAG of Normal over the period of the graph. We ARE a wee bit cold at present – as in near glacial temps, and we have been since Adam and Eve were kicked out of the Garden. I imagine people –if we survive the next few twenty Glacials– will be living underground in a couple ten million years; now THAT’S going to be Globally Hot (NOT warm).
Pascvaks says:
July 31, 2010 at 3:53 am
No! I’m Wrong, You’re Right. It’s just so hot and tight in the present that I can see straight. ‘0’C is what you said and not what I said. Mea Culpa!