Sol and NOAA predictions have a gap.
Here are some other graphs. The Ap magnetic index is up at least, but radio flux lags just like the spot count.
Source: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/
Since NOAA uses this on every press release, I suppose I should put it here.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the oceans to surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
h/t to WUWT reader Stephan who says in comments:
OT but D Archibald right on track for SSN 40. The rest as usual way off.
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meemoe_uk says:
July 20, 2010 at 11:14 am
Aren’t you going to allow some time for the climate to adjust? 1900 followed on from a cool century. 2010 follows a warm century.
Solar activity [and cosmic rays] in the 19th century was not much different from that of the 20th. See slides 13 & 14. How long do you think the climate needs to adjust? I have seen numbers like 7 years.
[2010 being the hottest year on record, so far]
Where do you get that from? UAH?
WUWT, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/13/calculating-global-temperature/ that shows the decade 2000-2009 as the warmest ever, and 2010 so far seems to be warmer.
I consider that to be a win for the people predicting cooling.
How cool is it in New York?
Climate is not about a couple of winters, or some specific location.
Leif Svalgaard
How cool is it in New York?
———-
It’s called summer. It’s 92 today and, by the way, that’s 14 degrees lower than the Central Park high of July 6, 1936. NYC also broke 100 degrees four times in 1966: June 27: 101, July 2: 100, July 3: 103 and July 13: 101.
Sean Peake says:
July 20, 2010 at 12:19 pm
“How cool is it in New York?”
It’s called summer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-19/new-york-city-is-on-track-to-post-hottest-july-on-record-as-heat-continues.html
Leif Svalgaard:
Sean Peake says:
July 20, 2010 at 12:19 pm
“How cool is it in New York?”
It’s called summer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-19/new-york-city-is-on-track-to-post-hottest-july-on-record-as-heat-continues.html
==========
From Brian K Sullivan, the journalist who wrote that article, responding to my comment (“I recommend you check the weather records and NASA’s sat. report before relying on NOAA’s word”), he wrote: “The highest recorded temperature in Central Park was 106 on July 9, 1936. If you have other information please send a link.”
I replied: ” It’s interesting that you mention the record in 1936. Seems that most of the records for high temps occurred then.” His response:
“Meteorologists and climatologists tell me that the 1930s was a special decade that a lot of people are still trying to figure out. Weather-wise a lot of unusual things happened then. As for the link you sent me, I am not sure how accurate it is or where it measures the top NYC temperature from — it could be one of the airports, etc. According to the NAtional Weather Service temperatures in NYC broke 100 four times in 1966. June 27: 101, July 2: 100, July 3: 103 and July 13: 101. The temperature on the graph in that link you sent me is the highs and lows for each day. In my story from yesterday, I used the average temperature for the day/month and not the highs and lows, which is why it is a little lower.. “
Sean Peake says:
July 20, 2010 at 12:47 pm
“Meteorologists and climatologists tell me that the 1930s was a special decade that a lot of people are still trying to figure out
And?
Solar activity was not particularly high in the 1930s.
Leif Svalgaard :
And?
Solar activity was not particularly high in the 1930s.
======
Exactly. And… ?
Salmon Fishing records provide quite a bit of information related to oceanic conditions in the 30’s. In fact there are a lot of records that can serve as proxies for oceanic conditions. There are also maritime direct observations of SST’s. For an informative walk through the temperatures at the turn of the last century both 30 years before and 30 years after, will educate the researcher on the strong connections between weird weather (cold or hot) and oceanic conditions. The correlation is apparent. The Sun simply provided its steady beam. The Earth made hay with it.
oops. Bad grammar. Hung sentence. Scratch “For” and instead start the sentence with “An informative walk through the temperatures at the turn of the last century both 30…”
Sean Peake says:
July 20, 2010 at 1:20 pm
“Solar activity was not particularly high in the 1930s.”
Exactly. And… ?
I thought the issue was that high solar activity means hot climate, but I could be mistaken [although I’m being lectured on this constantly 🙂 ]. But with a [possible variable, as needed] delay between solar activity and climate, anything is possible.
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 20, 2010 at 1:37 pm
I thought the issue was that high solar activity means hot climate
The issue is that climactic records sort nicely with solar cycle length.
The Weather and Climate are being monkeyed with, but enough records escaped the clutches of the rewriters.
Hottest ever is a political sword of Damocoles being used for mal-purposes.
What we need is the best estimate of the coming Solar Cycle length.
Leif,
Where do you get that from? UAH?
WUWT, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/13/calculating-global-temperature/ that shows the decade 2000-2009 as the warmest ever, and 2010 so far seems to be warmer.
I wonder if that’s the most contradicting part of WUWT or it’s me missing something. This site is always exposing the bias in networks such as GISS, and yet, what does WUWT condone and use as a temperture measure? GISS!?
In fact, in your WUWT link, GISTEMP gives the lowest measure of temp used.
Anthony thinks there’s only just enough AC vents blasting hot air at the sensors to warrent using them?
Crazy.
rbateman says:
July 20, 2010 at 4:16 pm
The issue is that climactic records sort nicely with solar cycle length.
No, Robert, as has been shown many times on this blog. E.g. here http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%20Length%20Temperature%20Correlation.pdf
meemoe_uk says:
July 20, 2010 at 4:41 pm
or it’s me missing something.
Satellite measurements also show warming:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/02/june-2010-temperature-cooling-a-bit-as-el-nino-fades/
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 20, 2010 at 5:01 pm
Most definitely not like that, in one great big bowl of soup.
Climate sorts regional, not global, according to Solar Cycle Length.
As for how many differect locales make up a distinct region, that is the subject of how many datasets exist of a sufficient length to make the sort.
I know the global bowl didn’t give the answer that was hoped for.
Leif,
Satellite measurements also show warming:
That’s not what I meant when I said I might be missing something. I meant I don’t know how Anthony can find fatal flaws in an instrument but then use it anyway. You know about flaws in instruments, you mentioned SOHO on page 9. But not bothered about AC vents?
As for satellite measures, this is where it conspiracy theory comes in handy. If we know we are dealing with people with a power fastidious enough to get so many sensors located next to air vents, wide enough to do this in many parts of the world, repressing enough to stop the scientists who work with the sensors to meaningfully protest, is able to flood the mass media with AGW, can safeguard it’s people from expose ( climate gate ), can get AGW into the national education curiculums, and has demostrated they have many other fradualent methods at hand, then it’s a not much of a step to suspect they can bump up the satellite readings at will.
It’s possible that most of the world warms while europe cools in a LIA climate system. Aside from that, I’m suspicious of satelitte readings until they conform with what I’m experiencing.
meemoe_uk says:
July 21, 2010 at 4:02 am
I don’t know how Anthony can find fatal flaws in an instrument but then use it anyway.
That is for Anthony to explain.