Sol and NOAA predictions have a gap.
Here are some other graphs. The Ap magnetic index is up at least, but radio flux lags just like the spot count.
Source: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/
Since NOAA uses this on every press release, I suppose I should put it here.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the oceans to surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
h/t to WUWT reader Stephan who says in comments:
OT but D Archibald right on track for SSN 40. The rest as usual way off.
Ulric Lyons says: July 15, 2010 at 5:12 pm
“According to Emmert and colleagues, low solar EUV accounts for about 30% of the collapse. Extra CO2 accounts for at least another 10%. That leaves as much as 60% unaccounted for.”
Solar wind velocity was very low through 2008/9 till this spring, total numbers of coronal holes per year were also down
I think the rest could be accounted for the decline in the Earth’s magnetic field, which has significant impact on the strength of thermosphere (most of it is the ionosphere).
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/IonSph.htm
The sun spot counts are a joke. Trying comparing Sun spots today with 1610-1950, can’t be done. Today we have scopes with 15 meg chips, above all clouds with 24 hour around the world surveillance. Satellites observing all the time. In the little Ice Age how many clear days in London did they have in a year. With the cold come clouds.
With a PhD you can be wrong all the time and make good living. Especially if you work for the government. Hathaway will have a nice government pension.
How many of you believe in the big bang?
It all started with a small spot, and someone added a drop of water, and poof the expanding universe. Makes sense to me.
I knew cycle 24 was going to be a bust. How? Timo Niroma. Here is his article that he published around 1998, I think. http://www.kolumbus.fi/tilmari/gleissb.htm
He has other good stuff on the web. He makes a prediction in 1998 and it come true. Hathaway makes a prediction ever month, and is wrong the next month.
Svensmark writes a book that explains, predictions that come true, and he is tried for climate crimes and convicted.
With the next little Ice Age on its way, have anyone of you though about what it means for farming in Canada. They have 12.5 million acres taken out of productions this year because of weather. Snow in Jasper Alberta the other day. This stuff is real serious.
Here is a photo I came across of the submarine 0-9 in Jan 1918 in Quincy Mass.
http://www.navsource.org/archives/08/0807003.jpg
Notice the Ice in Jan. I worked in Boston 1983-1996 and never saw Ice on the water.
I have a Hypothesis that I would like to throw out. I think that Prince Charles has his butler shave him everyday. I mean the guy can only talk about getting CO2 down to 280 ppm. He wants to save the planet. He could only think this, because he has someone shave his face. If he had to shave himself everyday, he would spend 10 minuets a day looking at his own face. With that, he would be on the news ever day trying to get 1st cousin marriages outlawed.
Richard deSousa says: July 16, 2010 at 10:03 am
“They should simply fess up and admit they haven’t the foggiest notion what’s happening to the sun.”
Hathaway did a reasonable job at this a few weeks ago on NPR:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128268488
“…I went out on a limb back in 2006 using a solar cycle prediction technique that relied on us being near sunspot cycle minimum. And I thought, well, the last few cycles were 10-year cycles. Chances are the next one will be a 10-year cycle. So I went out on a limb and made a prediction in 2006 that I have long since regretted, but it was a prediction there was going to be a big cycle coming up. I’ve now, at every opportunity, recant that prediction, but the ham radio operators, they’re saying you promised us.”
“I really do, as far as, you know, when you – in fact, there’s a great quote that, you know, prediction is difficult, especially about the future, that – and it is. When you’re really making a prediction about something that’s, you know, hasn’t happened yet and people are depending upon that prediction, yeah.”
I give credit to David Hathaway for gaining some humility and stating as such on NPR. Furthermore, the following is important information he communicated to the public:
“In fact, a number of my colleagues have suggested that perhaps, or certainly there’s the possibility that we are heading into another one of these long, grand minima like the Maunder Minimum. You know, the Maunder Minimum from the year 1645 to 1715, and it was 70 years, virtually, without sunspots. There were a few that started taking up near the end. But, basically, as far as sun spots, the sun stopped doing it for 70 years.”
Interviewer “FLATOW: Did it affect the Earth any way we could tell?”
“Yeah. It comes at the end of what is called the Little Ice Age for climate. And both that minimum and the minimum at the beginning of the 19th century correspond to cool times in Earth’s climate. It has led us to believe that the sun does – the solar variability, I should say, this, you know, coming and going of sunspot cycles – does influence climate to some extent. And the big question is to how big an extent. And there’s a wide range of feelings on what that is.”
Unfortunately, David’s humility and credibility evaporated immediately after that statement with the addition of this speculative and unsupported Warmist conjecture:
“The best analyses I’ve seen suggest that the sun’s still a minor player, that it’s really the anthropogenic forcing that’s overwhelming things now, and that even if the sun did go into one of these long, extended periods of no activity, it wouldn’t save us from global warming.”
Another awful prediction that Hathaway may be recanting in a few years…
I’ve been suprised that global temperatures (I trust UAH the most) rose so dramatically over the last year in a period where the sun was historically inactive on so many fronts. I suspected (from Svensmark’s Cosmoclimatology paper) this period at the most, cooler than average.
Any thinking as to why the El Nino persisted until recently? I know there are El Nino’s in cool periods. Fewer and less intense than during a warm oscillation.
Still, leaves me scratching my head a bit…
http://www.physorg.com/news86010302.html
Cross correlating sunspot number vs. IHV, they found that the IHV predicts the amplitude of the solar cycle 6-plus years in advance with a 94% correlation coefficient.
“We don’t know why this works,” says Hathaway. The underlying physics is a mystery. “But it does work.”
The Sun is making a monkey out of 90% of the science is settled man-made global warming scientific community. The Sun is our greatest weapon against politicized science sector.
It is time to change from belief to science:
http://www.holoscience.com
Or, in other words:
For what is a man what has he got
If not himself then he has not
To say the things he truly feels
And not the words of one who kneels
Those who kneel just repeat what the others say, what the “consensus” commands them to say.
“REPLY: Thanks Tom, I note that some people criticize my choice of words/grammar there also, such as who -vs- whom. It might help them to walk a mile in my shoes, being hearing impaired most of my life, now 85% deaf. I’ve had a lot of difficulty with language, mispronouncing a lot of things, and not making proper word choices because of it at times. Sometimes I’d make pronunciation mistakes, huge ones on the air, but once people learned of my disability they stopped demanding I be fired. My boss didn’t care one whit for them anyway. The fact is, like with WUWT, I drew in viewers.
-Anthony”
You don’t owe nobody no explanation. I have the benefit of all of my hearing, and sometimes my written word is loosely coherent. We are all volunteers here, juggling many responsibilities and without the benefit of editors. While the Warmist rabble nitpicks our grammar, we are winning the scientific debate…
Thank you for everything you are doing for humanity. As I said to you in April of ’09
“Solid website that is dedicated to the facts. When history books are written about the folly of human’s preparing for a period rapid and drastic warming, as we entered a period of (potentially rapid and drastic) cooling, they will reference WUWT as one of the primary factors in preventing the folly from going too far.
I dare say that the tide has begun to turn, and WUWT is one of the primary reasons for it. ”
Your response, though incorrect, shows you to be man of humility and character;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/30/april-another-record-month-at-wuwt/#comment-124607
Didn’t the Mayans like worship the sun? Is this the setup for the sun to do something big in 2012 or maybe do nothing at all and that in itself will have a large consequence? To be quite honest when the sun starts acting weird it worries me. Isn’t it NASA’s responsibility to do something to stop it before it wipes out civilization?
We could save a lot of money if we hired an octopus.
Now that is funny!
tallbloke says:
July 16, 2010 at 9:36 am
[Leif:] the flux is always higher for minima between odd and even cycles [23 to 24], than between even and odd cycles [22 to 23], so this has no particular significance.
Have the latest obs been able to shed any light on which components of the solar radiation spectrum might account for that Leif? And why that wavelength is deficient in the odd to even cycle transitions?
Tallbloke: I doubt this has anything to do with the solar spectrum. Rather, it likely has to do with the relative north/south orientations of the sun’s and earth’s magnetic fields. Each sunspot cycle of ~11 years has an opposite magnetic field orientation from the previous cycle, so one is parallel to the earth’s and the next is “anti-parallel” — a full cycle is really ~22 years.
Some magnetic interactions depend on the parallelism or non-parallelism (your refrigerator magnet attaches to your frig identically with either the north or the south pole facing it); others depend on whether the fields are parallel or anti-parallel, as in the action of two refrigerator magnets with regard to each other.
The problem is we are calculating the observations wrong. We need to adjust the system so the data are more consistent with the model, .. as we know the models are correct.
You can bet, a paper will come out soon that shows this flaw, and the new proposed calculation that brings the data more in line with the model will be accepted in toto.
@tallbloke. Take the plot back as far as Oulu goes. Yes there is even/odd cycle there but there is much more that appears to make this particular cycle particular: http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/query.cgi?startdate=1964/06/16&starttime=00:00&enddate=2010/07/16&endtime=18:09&resolution=Automatic%20choice&picture=on
All the comments about the Sun “having no influence” or “being a minor player” make me want to bite the side out of my coffee mug! Here in Auckland, its around 15C cooler than it will be in six months and you know why? Because we are recieving less solar energy now then we do in December! Don’t be telling me that changes in solar output don’t make no difference to the climate.
I think NOAA should immediately move their predicted SSN curve to the right about six months and hope nobody noticed :>)
Also, check this out:
http://leif.org/research/F107%20at%20Minima%201954%20and%202008.png
ShrNfr says:
July 16, 2010 at 12:36 pm
Call 911!. Solar magnetic fields, which shield us from GCR, for the Emergency Room:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PF.gif
John Finn says:
July 16, 2010 at 9:59 am
“[…]The criticism of David Archibald has nothing to do with his ‘prediction’ for solar cycle 24 (though you might like to make it appear so) but for his rather simplistic method for concluding that there will be a 2 deg decline in temperature over the next “few years”.”
NOAA and Joe Bastardi seem to agree with DA:
http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/07/11/joe-bastardi-coming-cooling-will-be-coldest-since-early-90s/
tallbloke says:
July 16, 2010 at 9:36 am
“the flux is always higher for minima between odd and even cycles [23 to 24], than between even and odd cycles [22 to 23], so this has no particular significance.”
Have the latest obs been able to shed any light on which components of the solar radiation spectrum might account for that Leif?
Not due to any ‘radiation’, but to the polarity of the solar polar fields, which for one orientation screens the cosmic rays a wee bit more efficiently than for the opposite direction.
David says:
July 16, 2010 at 9:58 am
You folks really like to ridicule science in general, don’t you? What exactly is there to be gained by mocking the entire scientific enterprise? Do you really want the U.S. to be dominated by the illiterate?
The US is already. No need to go any farther than this blog. Just look at the post below:
Enneagram says:
July 16, 2010 at 10:28 am
To know about real sun:
http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=74fgmwne
tom gall says:
July 16, 2010 at 10:47 am
Today we have scopes with 15 meg chips
We still use only small telescopes for sunspot counting.
Curt says:
July 16, 2010 at 12:08 pm
Rather, it likely has to do with the relative north/south orientations of the sun’s and earth’s magnetic fields.
First part is OK. Nothing to do with the Earth’s field.
ShrNfr says:
July 16, 2010 at 12:36 pm
Take the plot back as far as Oulu goes.
Oulu does not constant calibration over time. Most other stations give a different [and more correct] image, e.g. http://www.puk.ac.za/fakulteite/natuur/nm_data/data/nmd_e.html
Mike Campbell says:
July 16, 2010 at 9:28 am
Can anyone recommend one or two good books on solar science for the interested layman (whether they be of the text-book variety or more along pop-science lines)? Thx.
I have not seen any other response. Try The Sun Kings, by Stuart Clarke. Sorry, I am at the cottage, and do not have the ISBN.
I must say that whenver I get particularly discouraged about the horrible record of Artic Ice predictions by official establishment figures and institutions, well then I just turn to solar predictions and am reminded of just how much worse it could get. The solar guys and gals, as a group (no doubt there are honorable exceptions for moments here and there) have generally been quite astonishingly, consistently, and egregiously awful for what, 2.5 years now?
Cycle 24 sunspot numbers appear to be six months behind or 17 counts below prediction. This augers a lower peak or a longer stretchout or maybe both.
Well, okay, to be fair, I must admit no official government figure has predicted the imminent going out of the sun, as Serreze did with arctic ice. So score one for the solar crowd there. 🙂
Thanks for H/T…Looks like D Archibald will be right on the temps prediction too! (-2C over next few years would seem to me to be spot on). I reckon it has begun….
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
click on sea surface.
Also lets take note of R Spencer prediction that due to La Nina Satellite temps should be about to start dropping next 2-4 weeks
Re previous posting go to
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/ and then click on sea surface