Well, not quite that bad, but if I was still on TV, that would probably be the tease during prime time. It appears that solar influences are mostly at work here.
By Dr. Dr. Tony Phillips NASA
NASA-funded researchers are monitoring a big event in our planet’s atmosphere. High above Earth’s surface where the atmosphere meets space, a rarefied layer of gas called “the thermosphere” recently collapsed and now is rebounding again.
“This is the biggest contraction of the thermosphere in at least 43 years,” says John Emmert of the Naval Research Lab, lead author of a paper announcing the finding in the June 19th issue of the Geophysical Research Letters (GRL). “It’s a Space Age record.”
The collapse happened during the deep solar minimum of 2008-2009—a fact which comes as little surprise to researchers. The thermosphere always cools and contracts when solar activity is low. In this case, however, the magnitude of the collapse was two to three times greater than low solar activity could explain.
“Something is going on that we do not understand,” says Emmert.
The thermosphere ranges in altitude from 90 km to 600+ km. It is a realm of meteors, auroras and satellites, which skim through the thermosphere as they circle Earth. It is also where solar radiation makes first contact with our planet. The thermosphere intercepts extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photons from the sun before they can reach the ground. When solar activity is high, solar EUV warms the thermosphere, causing it to puff up like a marshmallow held over a camp fire. (This heating can raise temperatures as high as 1400 K—hence the name thermosphere.) When solar activity is low, the opposite happens.
Lately, solar activity has been very low. In 2008 and 2009, the sun plunged into a century-class solar minimum. Sunspots were scarce, solar flares almost non-existent, and solar EUV radiation was at a low ebb. Researchers immediately turned their attention to the thermosphere to see what would happen.
How do you know what’s happening all the way up in the thermosphere?
Emmert uses a clever technique: Because satellites feel aerodynamic drag when they move through the thermosphere, it is possible to monitor conditions there by watching satellites decay. He analyzed the decay rates of more than 5000 satellites ranging in altitude between 200 and 600 km and ranging in time between 1967 and 2010. This provided a unique space-time sampling of thermospheric density, temperature, and pressure covering almost the entire Space Age. In this way he discovered that the thermospheric collapse of 2008-2009 was not only bigger than any previous collapse, but also bigger than the sun alone could explain.
One possible explanation is carbon dioxide (CO2).
When carbon dioxide gets into the thermosphere, it acts as a coolant, shedding heat via infrared radiation. It is widely-known that CO2 levels have been increasing in Earth’s atmosphere. Extra CO2 in the thermosphere could have magnified the cooling action of solar minimum.
“But the numbers don’t quite add up,” says Emmert. “Even when we take CO2 into account using our best understanding of how it operates as a coolant, we cannot fully explain the thermosphere’s collapse.”
According to Emmert and colleagues, low solar EUV accounts for about 30% of the collapse. Extra CO2 accounts for at least another 10%. That leaves as much as 60% unaccounted for.
In their GRL paper, the authors acknowledge that the situation is complicated. There’s more to it than just solar EUV and terrestrial CO2. For instance, trends in global climate could alter the composition of the thermosphere, changing its thermal properties and the way it responds to external stimuli. The overall sensitivity of the thermosphere to solar radiation could actually be increasing.
“The density anomalies,” they wrote, “may signify that an as-yet-unidentified climatological tipping point involving energy balance and chemistry feedbacks has been reached.”
Or not.
Important clues may be found in the way the thermosphere rebounds. Solar minimum is now coming to an end, EUV radiation is on the rise, and the thermosphere is puffing up again. Exactly how the recovery proceeds could unravel the contributions of solar vs. terrestrial sources.
“We will continue to monitor the situation,” says Emmert.
For more information see Emmert, J. T., J. L. Lean, and J. M. Picone (2010), Record-low thermospheric density during the 2008 solar minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L12102.
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“Even when we take CO2 into account using our best understanding of how it operates as a coolant.”
DENIALIST!!!
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 16, 2010 at 7:54 am
Solar wind speed maximizes in the years just preceding solar minimum. See slides 17-18 of http://www.leif.org/research/Historical%20Solar%20Cycle%20Context.pdf
Not sure that is displayed for SC23 but it certainly gained strength quite some distance after cycle max. Looking at the entire cycle there is not a lot of variation.
In the picture at the beginning of the article one can see that the dominating species in the thermosphere is atomic oxygen. This cartoon should also add helium, atomic nitrogen and hydrogen. The IR radiative cooling for these species is inefficient. At the altitudes exceeding lower level of thermosphere CO2 does not exist due to photodissociation. I think CO2 cooling of thermosphere cartoon and explanation by a scientist presented above is a fiction.
Walt The Physicist says: July 16, 2010 at 10:32 am
I think CO2 cooling of thermosphere cartoon and explanation by a scientist presented above is a fiction.
I do too. There is no mention of the decline in the Earth’s magnetic field which has significant impact on the strength of thermosphere (most of it is the ionosphere).
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/IonSph.htm
Dont all get so angry, the way I read it was he basically says it isn’t much if anything to do with CO2.
And he has no idea what the causal mechanisms are.
He’s just the same as me and you.
Bedwetters! You just got CO2 peeing up there: There it goes to get rid of its heat!
Have you seen a propane heated balloon rising in the sky?, well, that’s it, the balloon is filled with water vapor and CO2, the products of combustion, and air (O2 and N), so when heated goes up to release its heat not down. For greenhouse effect to work the earth should have a ceiling, which it doesn’t.
““But the numbers don’t quite add up,” says Emmert. “Even when we take CO2 into account using our best understanding of how it operates as a coolant, we cannot fully explain the thermosphere’s collapse.””
Well that’s simple. Water vapor feedback multiplies the CO2 GHG effect. Hah. Greenhorn.
“…the ionosphere spans the thermosphere and the exosphere, both cause ionisation…”
No. The ionosphere is by definition the region between 50km and 400km, made up of the D region (50-90km), the E region or Heaviside Kennelly Layer (90km-150km) and F region or Appleton Layer (150km-400km). Even though there’s lots of ionisation and even radiation belts above 400km, the ionosphere does not include the exosphere, which is by definition the region above 400km. The thermosphere, by contrast, is defined as the region of the upper atmosphere, beyond the stratosphere, in which the temperature increases with altitude; it starts at about 80-100km and ends at ~500km where the temperature tails off again a bit; its boundaries are not fixed, but vary with latitude, time of year, and solar activity, the upper boundary especially so.
Drat, messed up close italic after “about”
David says
“Don’t conclude from the recent slow-down in the Arctic ice extent, that it means less melting. After gobbling up all the thin ice until a couple of weeks ago, it is now attacking the thicker remaining ice. This means declining volume i.e. thinner ice, changing thickness but to a much lesser extent, the sea ice extent. I know that the sceptics don’t like ice volume to much and rest assured, I can understand. After all, it is an inconvenient truth.”
How can you talk about thick ice when we were told the ice is not thick,it is rotten and an illusion to be thick but will not survive any longer the first season ice. Does this mean it is not rotten after all?
Since the upper 25% of the atmosphere is ionic – produced by UV radiation interacting with nitrogen and oxygen, strongly coupled to both the electric and magnetic fields but weakly coupled to gravity, bombarded by cosmic rays (relativistic protons), and buffeted by the charge solar wind (thermal protons), then one of the missing piece of their puzzle may be magnetohydrodynamics.
But since climatologists ignore the upper 25% of the atmosphere , assume the Earth’s climate below the stratosphere is a closed universe (with a constant irradiation from the Sun and immunity from external gravitation perturbations,) and that the Earth’s climate is a constant of motion, then if there’s any deviation of climate from the norm, motion, it must be witches cooking the weather.
For this generation, the witch is CO2 – a non-charged trace climate gas – the gas of life.
I think these scientists must be added to the Black-List.
To be used by the inquisition at a convenient time. What they are saying, sounds like heretic-talk to me.
/sarc
The advent of David to this blog and his increasingly childish postings, is lowering the tone of the discussion to the levels found on the lesser climate blogsites, where childish retorts and na-na na na-na form the highlights of what they consider scientific analysis.
Why do trolls, with a few exceptions, always degenerate the thread in such an unseemly manner? Why do they not read first and then follow on the gentlemanly manners of WUWT posters? Are they totally unaware how assinine their postings appear to others as we read down a thread?
We are pleased to consider a contrary view that is honestly held and politely advanced, but the Davids of this world quite quickly become tiresome and their opinions skimmed over in the grownups world.
Basil says:
July 16, 2010 at 6:24 am
You can see a closeup of every spot measured by Debrecen here:
http://fenyi.sci.klte.hu/DPD/index.html
Everything they measure is first detected by a software package, so as to be consistent.
Unfortunately, we don’t have that luxury with Greenwich. The original plates mostly got damaged over time, and what there does exist is behind a very expensive paywall.
So, the Debrecen data (SC21/22 to SC23/24) is entirely consistent within itself.
Greenwich data is reckoned by the Observatory project to be 90% of Debrecen data, as far as area goes.
Last, these are the trasition years, meant to be a closeup on the handoff of one cycle to the next.
One thing I get out of it is that the cycles tend to start off at the strength of which the previous one ended.
That would be the returning flux to the poles.
SC24 has started off as weakly as SC23 ended, and though the cycle has collected itself into a relatively narrower range of latitude, it has not yet turned any corner of intensity.
From Marijah McCain
World Class Naturopath
Herbal Healer Academy – since 1988
http://www.herbalhealer.com
A PUZZLING COLLAPSE OF EARTH’S UPPER ATMOSPHERE
Before you read the link, I have to tell you what has been going on
here with the UV radiation and solar output. My husband has a Davis
Instruments Vantagepro II weather station that monitors temperature,
humidity, wind and rain, it also measures the solar radiation and the
UV index. We have records on the weather readings for the last
10 years. Of interest is the incredible increase of the UV radiation
and the solar radiation. For the last 10 years the highest UV
reading was a 10 and this occurred only in August, the hottest time
of the year here. The alarming thing now is that in June 2010 the
UV began to spike as high as 14. Note: this is a brand new UV
calibrated system upgraded this year! The normal high solar
radiation was 1,000 to 1,050 watts per square meter, now it spikes
between 1,200 and 1,400. In easy to understand terms, this mean
there is a great deal more solar energy and UV radiation coming to
the surface of the planet at this time. This also means that
sunburns and heat exhaustion will happen a great deal faster. It is
important that you understand this because things are not like they
used to be. Wear protective clothing and sun screen if needed.
Always wear a light colored hat if you have to be out in the sun.
The other readings that are alarming are the heat indexes. Normal
heat index was changed a few years ago (numbers were lowered) and
what is reported to you by mainstream weather only factors in
humidity and the air temperature. Our system calculates how hot is
feels by also including the wind data and solar radiation. These
are important because the wind can cool you off if it is moving and
you get much hotter if there is no wind. The solar radiation puts
extra heat into your body that has to be cooled. For the last
10 years, normal summer time heat index highs were 100 to 110 in the
hottest part of the summer. This year, 2010, we have reading at
120’s everyday and on July 15th the afternoon reading was 135 heat
index. This, in my opinion, is a very dangerous level and again you
must change your outdoor exposures to stay safe. I am giving you
this link about the thermosphere collapse because this may be one
of the reasons for these reading.
A Puzzling Collapse of Earth’s Upper Atmosphere
July 15, 2010: NASA-funded researchers are monitoring a big event
in our planet’s atmosphere. High above Earth’s surface where the
atmosphere meets space, a rarefied layer of gas called
“the thermosphere” recently collapsed and now is rebounding again.
The Thermosphere is where solar radiation makes first contact with
our planet. The thermosphere intercepts extreme ultraviolet (EUV)
photons from the sun before they can reach the ground.
full article
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/15jul_thermosphere/
@Geoff Sharp says:
July 16, 2010 at 6:36 am
“The solar wind lost it’s mojo late 2008, Leif is right.”
No that was me pointing out the lower wind speed, Lief just corrected me quite fairly on the fact that most of 2008 it was still high. We still do not know exactly when in 2008 the thermosphere contracted considerably, the article just states `2008/9`.
Well, here we go again. This is a perfect example of how every observation in the earth sciences – and now even space science – has to be given a climate change spin. The thermospheric density is considerably lower than at any previous minimum since at least 1970, so of course it must be attributed to changes in the troposphere 400km below: even the wretched phrase ‘tipping point’ is dragged in. But this is not the only solar activity indicator to reach a record low. The Oulu Neutron Monitor shows that the previous minimum was also the most extreme since records began in 1964: a deviation from the mean of 12% rather than the 7-8% of other minima. The monthly average Ap indices in 2009 were at their lowest values since the 1930’s. Does anyone believe that the incidence of cosmic rays, or the magnetospheric current systems, are influenced by CO2 levels in the troposphere? I believe that these records are more sensitive indicators of solar activity than visible sunspots or the 10.7cm flux, and they are showing that magnetic activity is in an unusually low state.
Quote>By Dr. Dr. Tony Phillips NASA
NASA-funded researchers are monitoring a big event in our planet’s atmosphere. High above Earth’s surface where the atmosphere meets space, a rarefied layer of gas called “the thermosphere” recently collapsed and now is rebounding again. Abstract
It is well known that the Solar System is swept over by neutral interstellar gases, primarily hydrogen and helium, entering the heliosphere from the upwind side and penetrating inward, even up to the orbit of the Earth. The Earth on its orbit is thus moving through this density field and is intercepting time-variable hydrogen and helium fluxes. Quantitatively, this is associated with a sensitive reaction of the density fields to time-dependent conditions of the solar radiation pressure and the ionizing solar radiations during the solar activity cycle. As we shall show, the density distribution of interstellar hydrogen along the orbit of the Earth is strongly varying during the solar cycle. In connection with the variation of the mean relative velocity of this gas with respect to the orbiting Earth a highly variable hydrogen inflow into the Earth’s atmosphere will be induced. There is also an additional source of hydrogen influencing the Earth’s environment due to the fact that neutral interstellar hydrogen and helium are neutralizing solar wind protons by charge exchange inside the orbit of the Earth, thereby producing an antisolar flux of keV-energetic hydrogen atoms impinging onto the Earth’s atmosphere.
..illumination indicate a breathing of the geocorona under variable interplanetary gas inflows..<
Interplanetary Neutral Particle Fluxes Influencing the Earth's Atmosphere and the Terrestrial Environment
Looks like the post got messed up.
Parts missing, like a comment about why we think that only the thermosphere contracts, when it is surrounded by so many other layers??? huh
We should go back and check out the other contraction, like the whole heliosphere bubble.
So let’s see if we have this right.
We are using a proxy for “atmospheric density”; those little devil CO2 molecules smash into our satellites’ always on the same side of course, and slow them down. We know it’s not the solar wind slowing our satellites; because that would push them out to Mars; and of course it couldn’t be electromagnetic drag caused by eddy currents on the circuit boards induced by the magnetic fields; Nah! can’t be anything but CO2 impingement.
So we know we have the proxy drag down pat; but we just can’t find 60% of the ionospheric collapse that is caused by that.
Wel I’m going to assume they know what they are doing; and when they find that missing 60% of the collapse that they know from proxies is really happening; then I’ll get interested. They need to keep turning over some more rocks to find that missing collapse.
Don’t we have a missing collapse problem with the Antarctic ice as well ?
Well I’ve always wondered how it is you know that you are missing something you can’t find. Isn’t that how we ended up with dark matter, and then dark energy; we can’t find either one of them; but we know for sure that they are missing.
“”” Kevin says:
July 16, 2010 at 5:27 am
I was watching ABC the other night, and the tagline was, ‘Earth loses gravitational pull. Details at 11.”
Of course at 11pm you found out that some scientist claimed that the Earth weighed 1,400 pounds less than previous estimates, which made its gravitational pull slightly lower… “””
Well there is no way that the earth weighs 1400 pounds less; it doesn’t even weigh 1400 pounds to begin with, so no way it can lose 1400 pounds.
Last time I weighed the earth on my bathroom scale it wighed in at 180 pounds; and it hasn’t varied more that five pounds around there (earth weight anomaly) in the last ten years.
I weigh the earth on my bathroom scale, by first inverting a five gallon bucket on the floor, and then putting the scale on top of that, and upside down. Then I put a mirror on the floor underneath the scale so I can read it.
Finally I stand on the bottom of the bathroom scale, to generate some finite gravity to pull on the earth; and every time I do that, the earth’s weight comes out to 180 pounds +/- 5 pounds.
So nyet on the 1400 pound loss. the earth has never weighed 1400 pounds at any time since the Cambrian Era.
Chris Clark says:
July 16, 2010 at 4:27 pm
The Oulu Neutron Monitor shows that the previous minimum was also the most extreme since records began in 1964: a deviation from the mean of 12% rather than the 7-8% of other minima.
The neutron flux changes slowly over time due to the changing magnetic field of the Earth [not the Sun]. Even the changing climate can have an effect on cosmic ray flux. Oulu i somewhat anomalous in that other stations do not show the same long-term trend as Oulu, e.g. http://www.puk.ac.za/fakulteite/natuur/nm_data/data/nmd_e.html
Carla says:
July 16, 2010 at 4:59 pm
Contractions!!!
Oh my, that’s it. We better hurry and get Earth to the Planet hospital. Giving birth to a new moon is a big job.
Just some quick basics from a DENIER.
CO2 absorbs and emits Infrared Radiation or OLR. When it does this close to the ground its emissions will not make it out of the atmosphere, but, will most likely be absorbed and emitted at least one more time. With the higher densities in the lower atmosphere there is a higher chance that the CO2 molecule will impact another molecule or atom, before emitting the energy, heating the lower atmosphere. In the stratosphere and higher it is most likely that when CO2 emits the OLR will make it to space cooling. It is also much less likely that there will be transfer of heat from the CO2 to the surrounding area due to much more space between molecules.
Low in atmosphere CO2 net heating or slowing cooling at night. Higher in the atmosphere CO2 net cooling. Yes, it really can do both like any good air conditioning system!! 8>)
The fun part is that the Solar and atmospheric guys still will not talk about the enormous electromagnetic effects of the solar wind and the sun’s magnetic field compressing and heating the earth’s atmosphere. Until they do some studying with the Electric Universe physicists they will continue to be lost!!
Weaker magnetic field and slower less dense solar wind equals cooler more dense thermosphere!! Check out Piers Corbyn and his Weather Action Group. Simply the best long term weather forecasts available based on Solar and Lunar influences on the earth’s atmosphere.
http://www.weatheraction.com