Katla making noise

Katla volcano in iceland sees 14 earthquakes in 48 hours. This may mean nothing, or it may be a prelude to an eruption. Either way it bears watching.

Mýrdalsjökull < Earthquakes - all regions < Seismicity <  Icelandic Meteorological office

Via Ice Age Now:

Fourteen earthquakes have occurred below Iceland’s Mýrdalsjökull glacier during the past 48 hours – one within the last 4 hours. Katla Volcano lies beneath the Mýrdalsjökull glacier.

Katla Volcano usually erupts every century, says Iceland’s President Olafur Grimsson. and the last eruption was in 1918. “The time for Katla to erupt is coming close.”

“I don’t say if, but I say when Katla will erupt,” Grimsson says. “We have been waiting for that eruption for several years.”

“It can create, for a long period, extraordinary damage to modern advanced society.”

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/
Thanks to Jenny Cameron for this link

Also see this short video from Iceland’s president:

h/t to Russ Steele

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54 thoughts on “Katla making noise

  1. Oh no…not another friggin volcano going to bring unnecessary transport chaos to large chunks of Europe!

    Last time the ‘airspace authorities’ relied on computer modelling of the distribution of volcanic ash, rather than actual observations, to close down the Northern European airspace for nearly a week.

    It took the Chairman of British Airways to fly a 747 through the supposed areas of concern (he is a qualified pilot) without damage to demonstrate that these decisions were draconian and OTT. And that the models were wrong. Ring any bells?

    The only saving grace may be that the Minister of Transport in UK is now Philip Hammond (also my constituency MP). He has Heathrow Airport bordering his constituency and a high number of his voters work in the airline industry. He has also worked outside politics before becoming an MP (now sadly becoming unusual in UK), and I hope he has a lower level of bs tolerance than most, and will take a much tougher line on ‘ash alrmists’. We really really do not need more pointless politically determined disruption just as the holiday season begins.

  2. One fascinating scientific puzzle is that of the Earth’s magnetic field (GMFz vertical component) , possibly as a reflection of geological movements in Island and particularly in Denmark Strait, closely follows the average of the solar activity during last 400 years (as far back as the records are available).
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC1.htm

  3. Katla is at least easier to pronounce than Eyjafjallajökull. Perhaps we’ll get some data on what happens when with an eruption under an icecap, pertinent to Antarctica.

  4. I hope it does not blow.

    If it does, then the ongoing cooling, ice increases, lack of drought, etc. will be attributed to the eruption. Then we will have to listen to the warmists say “We can not count on a major eruption every couple of years to offset the massive warming”. Of course that will be after they tell us that “the volcano was caused by the ice melt caused by the warming”. But it will not be possible to point to the volcano as natural negative feedback to the warming.

    You can not win.

  5. The caldera of the volcano has a diameter of 10 km (6 mi) and is covered with 200-700 metres (660-2,300 ft) of ice. The volcano normally erupts every 40–80 years. The flood discharge at the peak of an eruption in 1755 has been estimated at 200,000–400,000 m³/s (7.1-14.1 million cu ft/sec), comparable to the combined average discharge of the Amazon, Mississippi, Nile, and Yangtze rivers.

    In the past 1,000 years, all three known eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull have triggered subsequent Katla eruptions.

  6. Oh this is going to be getting interesting. There is another volcano in Iceland that erupts every ten years and is due to go off this year as well.

  7. I’ve been watching this for a while – the interesting difference between this cluster of tremors and most of the others in the recent past is the location. Most of the others have been inside the Katla crater ridge and of mainly of low ‘quality’ in the table data.

    This cluster is nearly all high quality and located mainly between Katla and Eyjafjallajökull. The intensity is probably too low to worry about. But bookmark the webcam – just in case…

    http://www.ruv.is/katla/

  8. Andrew30 says:
    July 10, 2010 at 1:04 am
    “[…]warming”. But it will not be possible to point to the volcano as natural negative feedback to the warming.

    You can not win.”

    Climate is an oscillating thing. Stephen Schneider is the archetypical procyclical trader; he switched from predicting an ice age to predicting thermageddon right at the local minimum of temperatures. He got the timing right. Difficult to beat a procyclical trader who has the timing right.

    He’s probably too old to be interested but i would expect him to switch anytime again now; he has the talent to see the switch when it’s coming. The cooling is upon us, see NOAA’s predictions mentioned here.
    http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/07/08/noaa-forecasts-great-drastic-cooling/

  9. “Katla is at least easier to pronounce than Eyjafjallajökull”

    I just nicknamed it Volcano Bob for convenience.

  10. I’ve been following that website for a few months now, ever since the unpronounceable one went off. The current pattern of quakes under Katla has been seen a couple of times previously in that period; I’d be looking for a much tighter pattern and a lot more frequency before getting too excited.

  11. “Either way it bears watching.”

    I wonder if the polar bears will be watching ……….. uhhhhhmmmmm ahem. :-)

  12. I am lucky enough to go on vacation to Iceland most years and have travelled extensively throughout the country.

    The scenery is rugged and spectacular, but the one thing that always strikes me is the that most of the rocks are geologically recent lava flows(<3 million years old). The rest are volcanically related, such as tuffs (volcanic ash), plus intrusive sills and dykes. A good summary of this can be found here:

    http://www.eldey.de/English/geology/geology.html

    Iceland has an area of 103,100 sq. kms. About 80,000 sq.kms is less than 3 million years old. On the assumption (something defined as hard fact by climate 'scientists) the volcanic material is around 3,000 metres thick, that means a staggering 240,000 sq.kms of volcanic material has been erupted in geologically recent times. Of course, an unknown additional amount of volcanic material has been removed by the effects of erosion.

    The Pleistocene Ice Age started 2.6 million years ago, coicidentally about the same time as much of Iceland's volcanic activity. It is possible therefore (the word 'possible' somehow always seems to be morphed by climate 'scientists' into the concept of hard fact) that volcanic activity in Iceland may have been a major controlling factor over global temperatures during recent geological times.

    As we have seen recently, it is not lava eruptions which are the problem, but when lava erupts beneath a glacier – it instantly becomes volcanic ash spewing up into the atmosphere.

    Consequently, during the last Ice Age when Iceland was covered by a thick layer of ice, there may have been a steady to intermittent recharges of volcanic ash into the atmosphere thus cooling the entire planet.

    Of course, this is a theory, but it is yet another indicator of how impotent man is in matters of our planet's climate.

    Western governments have to cut pointless spending to reduce their budget deficits, I for one know exactly where I would start.

  13. I hope it does erupt: It could be a climatic significant one. We then would have very good satellite readings of the event and thus try to calculate the atmospheres feedback. Like Roy Spencer tried with the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

  14. Ed Murphy said in tips and notes just over a week ago:

    Ed Murphy says:
    July 1, 2010 at 12:16 am (Edit)

    For getting a lot of rain in the middle of planting crops (for some) things look pretty good. Yes there was some winter wheat damage and some beanfields haven’t been planted but east of the Rockies looks really green and lush. Crops look good. Beats having fireworks banned for fire danger!

    Here’s some things some of you might be interested in, maybe not, I’ve been working too much to examine this for accuracy, maybe Robert or someone would take a look.

    http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php/102513-Cyclic-Archeomagnetic-Jerks-Volcanic-Eruptions-amp-Solar-Cycle?s=490a73503cd826ac4c30eabb6891eca0

    http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUFMPP61A0298A

    The Role of Explosive Volcanism During the Cool Maunder Minimum

    The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830.[1] Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0° C decline over 20 years.[2] The Year Without a Summer, in 1816, also occurred during the Dalton Minimum. The precise cause of the lower-than-average temperatures during this period is not well understood. Recent papers have suggested that a rise in volcanism was largely responsible for the cooling trend.[3]

    http://www.pnas.org/content/101/17/6…#otherarticles Analyzing data from our optical dust logger, we find that volcanic ash layers from the Siple Dome (Antarctica) borehole are simultaneous (with >99% rejection of the null hypothesis) with the onset of millennium-timescale cooling recorded at Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2; Greenland). These data are the best evidence yet for a causal connection between volcanism and millennial climate change and lead to possibilities of a direct causal relationship. Evidence has been accumulating for decades that volcanic eruptions can perturb climate and possibly affect it on long timescales and that volcanism may respond to climate change. If rapid climate change can induce volcanism, this result could be further evidence of a southern-lead North–South climate asynchrony.

    Alternatively, a volcanic-forcing viewpoint is of particular interest because of the high correlation and relative timing of the events, and it may involve a scenario in which volcanic ash and sulfate abruptly increase the soluble iron in large surface areas of the nutrient-limited Southern Ocean, stimulate growth of phytoplankton, which enhance volcanic effects on planetary albedo and the global carbon cycle, and trigger northern millennial cooling. Large global temperature swings could be limited by feedback within the volcano–climate system.

    http://www.spaceandscience.net/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/ssrcresearchreport1-2010.doc

    …An independent review of historical records was performed for 350 years of global volcanic activity
    (1650-2009) and seismic (earthquake) activity for the past 300 years (1700 to 2009) within the continental United States and then compared to the Sun’s record of sunspots as a measure of solar activity. All three data sets were examined to determine whether a relationship existed between them and if the results of such a study could be used to develop methodology for identifying future geophysical events. The preliminary results from the study have shown that there exists a strong correlation between the solar activity that causes climate changes and the Earth’s largest seismic and volcanic events. The impressive degree of correlation for global volcanic activity (>80.6%) and for the largest USA earthquakes (100% of the top 7 most powerful) vs. solar activity lows provides a basis for future estimates of the time periods and magnitudes for the largest volcanic and seismic events many decades in advance. Finally, the coincidence of the Centennial and Bi-Centennial cycles of the RC Theory showed unmistakable relationships to these largest geophysical events. The use of such a tool may provide a new and valuable method for protection of people and property located in and around high risk geologic zones. Further, a significantly increased risk is indicated during the next 20 years for volcanic and earthquake events of historic scale. Citation: Casey, John. L. (2010), Correlation of Solar Activity Minimums and Large Magnitude Geophysical Events, Research Report 1-2010 (Premiminary), March 1, 2010, Space and Science Research Center, (SSRC).

    1. Introduction.
    [2] Previous work by Casey (2008) known as the “RC Theory,” established solar activity as a reliable model for prediction of the Earth’s climate changes. During the course of the research it was observed that there may be a positive correlation between solar activity as measured by sunspot counts over a long term base line average, and major geophysical events specifically earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. This previous research found for example, that the largest ever recorded volcanic eruption, Mt. Tambora in Indonesia (1815), as well as the largest earthquakes in the history of the United States, the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812, all occurred near the bottom of the last solar hibernation known as the Dalton Minimum (1793-1830). Given this initial relationship, a more detailed study of geophysical records was made to assess the degree of correlation if any that may exist between the Sun’s activity and such events…

  15. Llanfar says July 10, 2010 at 12:39 am

    I wouldn’t be concerned until the 2-4Hz line climbs: http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

    Better scale at: http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/gosplott.html
    hvo = Láguhvolar. 63.52628 N, 18.84754 W, about 10 klicks south east of Katla.

    Note at top of both pages: “Katla is NOT erupting and there are NO indications that Katla is about to erupt”. Katla WEB Cam at: http://www.ruv.is/katla. Nothing to see!

  16. If Katla is about to erupt, maybe it is better to erupt now, at the end of the NH crop growing season, than in six months time.

  17. Ah you see, the more we think we know, the more there is to know, and the unknowns to fear.

    What have those warmist;s done, create a climate scare, expectations of warming beyond all comprehension, create the ultimate carbon indulgence as the saviour of mankind and what does Nature do, trumps them in spades no less!!

    Puny man -scientists take cover, perhaps we/they, us, them, can blame this one on Obama, don’t try to monkey with nature, it will bite you on your political bum.

    Got to be in awe of the potential power of nature, I know I am! Now that is reality!!

  18. ” Llanfar says:
    July 10, 2010 at 12:39 am

    As per Alan Sullivan (RIP), I wouldn’t be concerned until the 2-4Hz line climbs: http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

    The validity of this post topic needs to be verified. The author of the data shown in the link I’ve include here (from an early comment) has added this disclaimer to his web page:

    “Katla is NOT erupting and there are NO indications that Katla is about to erupt. Information on this page is for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption. “

  19. In reviewing my own links on Iceland and Katla, I think this report is tripping into fear-mongering. Earthquakes are a constant with most active volcanos, and there is nothing indicating that Katla is on the verge. These are all tremors of very low magnitude.

    Redoubt in Alaska shakes, rattles and rolls constantly, as their seismic webicorders indicate, but its not expected to blow imminently.

  20. “It can create, for a long period, extraordinary damage to modern advanced society.”

    Extraordinary damage. Modern advanced society.

    Of course the “puny humans” went to great length of making sure to be so advanced they didn’t feel the need to create a society of tomorrow that had to take into account the potential negative effects of natural disasters.

    The stone age society of yesterday was way sturdier.

    Todays graph _____/

  21. While Katla in Iceland deserves close monitoring, as do all active areas, the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands in Russia deserves even more attention. There are currently six volcanoes here in aviation code orange or yellow. This year there have been a total of 11 different volcanoes active or erupting so far. A major eruption here would bring the ash directly over North America and most of Northern Hemisphere. The Kurile Lake region and the south end of the Peninsula in particular has been quiet for too long.

    The 188 Kamchatka Peninsula, Mainland Russia and Kurile Islands Volcanoes are second only to South America’s total of 200 volcanoes]
    The area leads the world in number of past eruptions and number of major eruptions [ level 4 and higher VEI]
    Has the highest number of explosive volcanoes

    http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/avoreport.php?view=kaminfo

    http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm?wvarweek=20100630

    http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1000-023

  22. R. de Haan says:
    July 10, 2010 at 4:27 am

    > The current shallow quakes are related to movements in the Katla ice cap and have nothing to do with volcanic activity.

    Oh good, I’d prefer it not erupt until after the Tour de France. (For those not interested in bicycle racing but interested in France, the helicopter videographers have gotten very, very good over the last several years. Just the travelogue aspect of TV coverage makes it worth watching.) Now in HD!

  23. Vukcevic says 2:50
    Iceland.

    That’s OK. Most of our government educated and texting experts probably spell it that way anyway. LOL.

  24. It does appear that the quakes are not foretelling a Katla eruption, but it is very true that when Katla does decide to erupt it gives very little warning. Katla will erupt and talking about it is interesting. Thanks for the thread.

  25. From the Eruptions blog:

    “I’ve been getting a number of emails and tweets about seismicity around our friend Katla over the last 24 hours. Again, I am no expert on seismicity at Katla, but most of of the current earthquakes are very shallow (1 km or less), small (most < M1) and really, only 14 in the past day. If you're looking for a signal of a reawakening Katla, we should expect increasing magnitudes, earthquakes starting at depth (10s of km) and working their way upwards, tens if not hundreds of earthquakes a day and volcanic tremors, all of which are missing right now. However, never hurts to keep an eye on Eyjafjallajökull bigger sibling."

    http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/

  26. DirkH says:
    July 10, 2010 at 1:30 am

    The GCM’s are only good for taking what’s currently happening and extending it until the cow’s come home.
    NOAA is throwing the dice (desperate to get back into the win column).
    If you follow the CFS, it changes with each whim of the current week of weather.
    Schneider will become a CO2 Global Coolist. Look for a reprise with Nimoy where he was ‘right all along’.
    In reality, they are both playing Extrapolation with the PDO phases and a few other assorted indices. No skill required.
    But, a volcano? Omigod. Calling all Govt. agencies: shut ‘er down and go to Operation Analysis Paralysis.

  27. Bastardi regularly refers to the “triple crown of cooling” which is a scary thought: oceanic, solar, and vulcan influences all phasing together to create a monster of a cool-down someday.

    The saddest part about that will be the billions of scientific dollars that have been squandered in the name of CO2…that could have been spent researching these things.

    Who will hold the powers that be accountable for this type of grossly negligent institutional INCOMPETENCE and malfeasance?

    I sincerely hope attorneys and prosecutors across the world are pulling together their resources to hit these morons where it counts!!

    Buh BYE Michael Mann, James Hansen, and Gavin Schmidt!

    Good bl**dy riddance!

    Ooops….thunderstorm approaching. Gotta power down for a little while…

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  28. I hope not. If it does, the cool period we are going into will be blamed on it and global warming interrupted, which the faithful have been morphing agw into, will keep this disgraceful deceipt alive. Oh and also for the sake of the Icelanders.

    ‘Gotha note, subtha rote, edtha sote, yedla note’.

    This is most certainly badly spelled. I was told this was a greeting I should say to a visiting Icelandic inlaw who upon hearing it burst into laughter. Apparently it means: Good night, sleep tight, eat sh*t each night.

    I’d be grateful if someone could render this properly for me. I’ve been curious about it for ro yrs.

  29. Its Déjà vu…

    Global Volcanism Program | Eyjafjallajökull | Summary
    http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1702-02=

    An intrusion beneath the south flank from July-December 1999 was accompanied by increased seismic activity and was constrained by tilt measurements, GPS-geodesy and InSAR.

    Bet if we looked real hard we’d find seismic activity was about the same for Katla following Eyjafjallajökull in 1999. Just saying, and not saying it couldn’t erupt, it sure has been on my mind.

    One thing about it, the numbers and volume of eruptions have increased since the late nineties.

    http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/find_eruptions.cfm

    1980 66 eruptions
    1981 55 eruptions
    1982 58 eruptions
    1983 55 eruptions
    1984 59 eruptions
    1985 54 eruptions
    1986 67 eruptions
    1987 64 eruptions
    1988 63 eruptions
    1989 54 eruptions
    1990 55 eruptions
    1991 64 eruptions
    1992 57 eruptions
    1993 58 eruptions
    1994 58 eruptions
    1995 62 eruptions
    1996 76 eruptions
    1997 52 eruptions
    1998 78 eruptions
    1999 66 eruptions
    2000 67 eruptions
    2001 64 eruptions
    2002 67 eruptions
    2003 64 eruptions
    2004 74 eruptions
    2005 73 eruptions
    2006 76 eruptions
    2007 78 eruptions
    2009 67 eruptions
    2010 53 eruptions so far

    Plus there are some estimates exceding a million young seafloor volcanoes and we’ve read a fair bit in the last few years about the activity of some of them.
    http://www.volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?faq=03

  30. rbateman says: “The major faults in California are lit up lately.”

    Yes, and the Electorate Volcano in California is overdue for an eruption.

  31. Iceland vs Island. The folks that live there seem to think it is Island.
    Their postage stamps agree with them.

  32. Andrew30 said,

    “I hope it does not blow.

    If it does, then the ongoing cooling, ice increases, lack of drought, etc. will be attributed to the eruption. Then we will have to listen to the warmists say “We can not count on a major eruption every couple of years to offset the massive warming”. Of course that will be after they tell us that “the volcano was caused by the ice melt caused by the warming”. But it will not be possible to point to the volcano as natural negative feedback to the warming.

    You can not win.”

    As well, we will soon be hearing: “the lastest erpution is evidence climate change is causing increasing volcanic activity.”

    blech.

  33. When you try to study the… Volcanic Gases and Their Effects

    http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/index.php

    It seems to me that before the mid-nineties we were warming because of a lack of volcanic gas volume and particulate. Now we have both in abundance and those gasses and particulate cause both coolings and warmings as they penetrate the stratosphere and later drop back down. So the temperature gradients increase at times, depending on the hemisphere of the eruption(s). Pinatubo likely did a lot of ozone damage.

    What I’m getting at is what man does in emissions is like a 4th of July celebration compared to that. Deforestation is the biggie.

  34. Tend to agree with the vulcanologists, and my geologist training – there’s not much out of the ordinary going on, and nothing at the moment to suggest Katla will go pop any time soon.

  35. Interesting! And like global climate change, Katla will continue to do what it does, driven by cyclic engines beyond our current ability to ken or influence.

    “There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio (er….Hansen?), than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”
    WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE / Hamlet Act 1. Scene V abt. 1601

  36. I dreamt that it would erupt before this winter. People in the area were in a church on top of a hill and we were all watching. A news reporter on TV said “Katla blows without warning.”

  37. http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/123351947/abstract

    Very interesting article by 3 icelandic volcanologists re risk factors for Katla eruptions. The article points out that the last 9 times Katla erupted was during the summer and the main tenet of the article is making the connection between the summer melting of the ice cap which induces magmatic pressure change in horizontally elongated magma chambers like Katlas which in the past 9 events may have been the contributing factor preceeding the eruption. This melting/sinking/shifting of the ice cap typically causes micro EQ under 1 mag under 5km depth which is common in the summer for Katla. Is this what were seeing now? Yes, BUT, the EQ’s are slightly getting larger and deeper and if they continue to increase in depth, magnitude, frequency (dozens to hundreds) and especially clustering near the NW edge of the caldera or you start seeing significant flooding in the rivers near the NW edge of the glacier caused by sub-glacial magma intrusion and the govt starts evacuating the general area and then the flight alert is raised to orange, then..ITS TIME TO SHORT THE MARKET AND AIRLINE STOCKS (SMN, SSG, EPV, UAUA, etc). Will this occur this summer or next is the question, not IF. This summer the market will peak on the false speculation and hope of earnings as their panacea, so if Katla starts to awake, there is a collusion of events (macro economic, nature and geopolitical >> dont forget Israels move on Iran) that can only be likened to a perfect storm. Anyone shorting at that time will double their money in less than 2 months.

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