Sea Ice News #11

“Steepest slope ever.”

By Steven Goddard

We have been hearing a lot about how the decline in Arctic ice is following the “steepest slope ever.” The point is largely meaningless, but we can have some fun with it. The Bremen Arctic/Antarctic maps are superimposed above, showing that ice in the Antarctic is at a record high and growing at the “steepest slope ever.You will also note that most of the world’s sea ice is located in the Antarctic. But those are inconvenient truths when trying to frighten people into believing that “the polar ice caps are melting.”

There are several favorite lines of defense when trying to rationalize away the record Antarctic ice.

1. It is the Ozone Hole – which is also the fault of evil, American SUV drivers. That is a nice guilt trip, but sadly the Ozone Hole doesn’t form until August and is gone by December. Strike one.

The next one is to point out that some regions of the west side of the tiny Antarctic Peninsula have been warming. Never mind that the Antarctic Peninsula is an active volcanic ridge, and that the waters around it have not shown any significant warming. Strike two.

RSS temperature trends

UAH shows Antarctica cooling slightly over the last 30 years.

The third favorite line of defense is to argue that “we expected Antarctica to warm more slowly because of the mass of the southern oceans.” Nice try – “slower warming” is not the same as “cooling.” Strike three.

(The AGW view of Antarctica is every bit as irrational as FIFA’s stand that not having instant replays somehow helps the referees’ reputations.)

On to the Arctic. First graph is a JAXA comparison of 2006, 2007 and 2010. Note that 2006 and 2007 were nearly identical, until early July. The main difference between 2006 (second highest in the JAXA record) and 2007 (lowest in the JAXA record) was that strong southerly winds compacted and melted the ice in 2007. As you can see below, the summer extent numbers are nearly meaningless before July/August. So far, 2010 is tracking very closely with both 2006 and 2007, and it appears the three will intersect in about a week.

Let’s take a closer look at the mechanisms using the PIPS ice and wind data. If we watch the movement of Arctic ice during the summer, we can see that when the winds blow away from the pole (i.e. from the north) the ice expands. When the wind blows from the south, the ice contracts. Some summers, the winds alternate between north and south, and the ice extent changes less during the summer – like in 2000 below.

Other years, like 2007, the summer winds blew consistently from the south, causing the ice to melt at a faster pace and compress towards the north.

So basically, it is weather (wind) rather than climate which controls the summer minimum. Of course, it is harder to compress and melt thick ice than thin ice – so the thickness of the ice is important. It is too early to determine if 2010 will see winds like 2007, or if summer winds this year will be more like 2006.

No one has demonstrated much skill at forecasting winds six weeks in the future, so it is really anybody’s guess what wil happen this summer. Before August arrives, the pattern should be clear.

The video below shows ice movement near Barrow, AK over the past 10 days.

The winds were blowing strongly and contracting the ice edge until the last few days, when they died down. Over the past two or three days, the ice edge has not moved very much.

Over the last week, almost all of the ice loss in the Arctic has been in the Hudson Bay, as seen in the modified NSIDC image below in red. The Hudson Bay is normally almost ice free in September, so the recent losses are are almost meaningless with respect to the summer minimum.

The modified NSIDCimage below shows ice loss since early April. All of the areas shown in red are normally ice free in September.

The modified NSIDC image below is a comparison of 2010 vs 2007. Areas of red had more ice in 2007. Areas of green have more ice in 2010.

The modified NSIDC image below shows the current deficiencies in red. Again, all of those areas are normally ice free in September, so they don’t tell us much about the summer minimum.

Below is my forecast for the remainder of the summer.

But it all depends on the wind.

From The New York Times, 1969

From the 9th century to the 13th century almost no ice was reported there. This was the period- of Norse colonization of’ Iceland and Greenland. Then, conditions worsened and the Norse colonies declined. After the Little Ice Age of 1650 to 1840 the ice began to vanish near Iceland and had almost disappeared when the trend re versed, disastrously crippling Icelandic fisheries last year.

From The New York Times, 2000

The thick ice that has for ages covered the Arctic Ocean at the pole has turned to water, recent visitors there reported yesterday. At least for the time being, an ice-free patch of ocean about a mile wide has opened at the very top of the world, something that has presumably never before been seen by humans and is more evidence that global warming may be real and already affecting climate. The last time scientists can be certain the pole was awash in water was more than 50 million years ago.

Is it possible that the IPCC is trying to rewrite the history books?


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Enneagram

Ask Al Baby, being a Nobel laurate, he is supposed to have a wider than an ocean knowledge than us….but with just a 1/64 of an inch deep.

It’s odd the ozone hole follows the sun so much …. something I recall about the balance of UV-A and UV-B causing and destroying the ozone hole, but that’s old science now.
The other thing I never understood is ice floats, and the wind blows floating ice around? When was that discovered.

dbleader61

Excellent analyis Steve. Can expect a lot of comment on the summer BBQ circuit on the 2010 arctic ice situation. Your ice reports provide all the data I need. Super imposing the arctic and antartic ice extent is especially illuminating.
Keep this info coming.

An Inquirer

Two or three months ago, I thought it was rather brave of Gates to forecast the minimum for summer ice to be at the 2007 record level. Last month, I thought it was more than brave — I thought it was reckless — for Steve Goddard to forecast the summer minimum to be close to the top of the six years.
I myself do not venture a forecast. Too much depends upon wind and ocean currents, and we have some vague understanding on the role of soot — but no more than vague. As Steve suggests, we can wait a few weeks to see, rather than getting upset and angry at people with different expectations.

Ray

Just for fun I did the first derivative of the ice extent on the JAXA graph. The rate of decline has passed its peak around the 10th of June… so the decline speed is actually slowing down already.

Douglas DC

All these scary predictions are very similar to a certain “end times” cult that predicted
the end in 1975. There was a local preacher here in my home town that was preaching this to the faithful. They sold their properties, their cars, and went up to the hilltop and
waited-I think it was 2:00 pm, May 12, or something like it. So, the Sun went down
and rose on the 13th, just has it has for Eons,-no second coming, no flying saucers, not
even a Klingon Battle fleet. Oh well.
We are watching the dying of a Cult….
I was hoping for Klingons, by the way….

Casper

Steven,
I will remember your forecast for ice minimum extension. We are living in interesting times.

Henry chance

They could be correct. We only have what, 30 years of data sets?
Drama is a poor substitute for data.
In several centuries, we should have a pattern for what could be consider a normal range of fluctuation.

The videos won’t play for me when viewed in Chrome. Is anyone else having that problem?
Reply: They work fine for me with Chrome. Still using XP. You may need to update your Flash Player. ~ ctm

Enneagram

What if the water cycle is not closed but opened?. During summer time above the pole and due to increased radiation, atmosphere´s oxygen is turned into Ozone (O3), which during winter time and specially when there are proton flares from the sun or increased cosmic rays, as during solar minimums (mainly composed of protons-90%-, which, btw, we must remember are Hydrogen Nucleii), and these react with ozone to produce water 2H+…O3=H2O+O2 and originate the “Ozone Hole” , then snow fall increases ice. So we have an ice cube making machine.

toby

I’m with “An Inquirer”. We need to wait and see in a spirit of scientific curiosity.
Calling strident attention to a prospective record, or trying to decry it before it happens, are both misplaced.

starzmom

Has the New York Times forgotten that there are archives even if they choose not to look at them?

Julienne

Ray says:
June 28, 2010 at 12:32 pm
Just for fun I did the first derivative of the ice extent on the JAXA graph. The rate of decline has passed its peak around the 10th of June… so the decline speed is actually slowing down already.
————————
The first derivative from NSIDC’s data does not show the speed has now slowed (June 1 to June 27):
-0.12163
-0.06582
-0.06406
-0.08711
-0.04721
-0.11067
-0.02197
-0.12449
-0.0832
-0.09121
-0.09059
-0.05856
-0.04369
-0.04009
-0.03826
-0.07863
-0.06003
-0.14218
-0.10832
-0.18452
-0.07408
-0.06356
-0.0751
-0.12348
-0.11984
-0.0923
-0.14786

As Steve notes, Antarctic Sea Ice Extent continues to increase rapidly and is currently well above average, and significantly exceeds NSIDC’s misleadingly narrow “normal” range:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
Antarctic Sea Ice Area has been trending up and the anomaly now appears to the largest on record, save for the record Antarctic Sea Ice freeze that occurred in 2007 – 2008:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
Antarctic Sea Ice Extent trend for the month of May since 1979 also shows the increase, and that the last 3 years represent the only sustained peak in the historical record:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/s_plot_hires.png
Here is a good visualization/map of the positive Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Anomaly; http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_bm_extent_hires.png
and in the map above there seems to be a lot of extra ice off the coast of Queen Maud Land and to its East;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Maud_Land
which also calls into questions claims that recent increases in Antarctic Sea Ice are primarily in the Ross Sea and caused by Ozone or the lack thereof:
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/antarctic_melting.html
In addition to near record Extent and Area, Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration also seems quite high;
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_daily_concentration_hires.png
as compared to 2007, when the previous record high Area and Extent occurred:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_record_concentration_hires.png
All of this might have something to do with the fact that Ocean temperatures are plummeting and still have a ways to go down;
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/AMSRE-SST-Global-and-Nino34-thru-June-17-2010.gif
because an El Nino has just ended;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/13/r-i-p-el-nino/
and the PDO is now in its 30 year cool phase:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/04/29/nasa-pdo-flip-to-cool-phase-confirmed-cooler-times-ahead/
I have been considering whether Arctic or Antarctic Sea Ice offers a more accurate proxy of Earth’s current temperature and temperature trend, and I think it’s Antarctic Sea Ice. The primary reason for this conclusion is that large portion an Antarctic Sea Ice melts each year as you can see in this video complements of Mr. Goddard;

thus in a way Antarctic sea ice resets/recalibrates each year, offering more accurate readings as compared to the Arctic sea ice, which suffers from the impact and memory of major non-temperature related events such as occurred in 2007.
Can anyone offer a counterpoint as to why they think Arctic Sea Ice offers a better proxy for Earth’s temperature and/or temperature trend?

Tenuc

Thanks for doing the latest update Steven.
Arctic-ROOS are still tracking almost exactly the 2007 pattern – will be interesting to see where we end up!

Ian W

you ask: “Is it possible that the IPCC is trying to rewrite the history books?”
They would have to read the history before they could rewrite it.
The AGW proponent position seems to be that nothing exists prior to the satellite era except tree rings, ice-cores and other unvalidated proxies.

Tenuc
Pamela Gray

Goodness, some folks really hold this close to the chest. I for one love the discussion and speculation on both sides of the isle. I also don’t care whether or not someone changes their prediction. What is more important to me is that when it happens, the person should offer up an explanation for why his/her prediction did not come true or likely won’t, and why he/she is changing the prediction (IE what parameters were not taken into consideration with the former prediction and what parameters are now being considered in making a new prediction). This openness to learning informs my own learning and understanding. Folks who change their prediction and are absolutely transparent and explanatory about it are of high value to me.
IMO, under those preferred circumstances outlined above, it behooves those of us who have made predictions and have stuck by them but that ended up way off, to post what learnings they gleened from the exercise of predicting something, and being significantly outside the bullseye. I challenge both sides of the debate of be prepared to do that on this blog.

Roald

There’s no doubt that the wind has some influence in the Arctic sea ice extent, but it can’t explain the negative trend:
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20091005_Figure3.png

Dave

Didn’t I see photos of submarines at an ice free pole in 1958?
Or was that photo taken in 50,000,000 BC?

Julienne
I expect that when the Hudson Bay ice disappears during the next week or so, that the slope will start to drop off.

Tenuc
The pattern so far is similar to 2007. And it is also similar to 2006. Opposite meanings.

Richard M

“So basically, it is weather (wind) rather than climate which controls the summer minimum.”
Sounds pretty much like what I said about a month ago. Go figure.

Roald
There seems to be some control which keeps global sea ice fairly constant.
Rather than coming up with stupid explanations for what is happening in Antarctica, it would be nice if polar researchers would try to come up with a unified theory for this:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

Ray

Julienne says:
June 28, 2010 at 1:31 pm
______________
Look at the change of slope (Y2-Y1)/((X2/X1). Of course (X2/X1) = 1. So it is the difference in ice area between days that I was talking about.

Steve from Rockwood

Steven Goddard says:
“So basically, it is weather (wind) rather than climate which controls the summer minimum. ”
For year over year variations, as you and others have been pointing out, temperature is not the dominant factor in the summer minimum. But over a longer period of time, surely temperature must be the main driver toward an ice-free summer.
In years which the Arctic was ice-free are there estimates of the maximum ice-extent?
Nice post BTW Mr. Goddard.

Espen

IMHO Sea Ice is may be highly correlated to the AMO. If the AMO peaked in 2005, and follows a similar pattern to ~70 years ago, we’re in for a ~30 year long drop. Which means a steady rise in Arctic sea ice. In a couple of years we may know more. Currently we just have sea ice data for a period starting right after a multidecadal decline in North Atlantic and Arctic sea temperatures.

Please see the two maps of:
1. NHemi SAT (Surface Air Temperature):
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmp_01.fnl.html
and
2. NHemi JetStreams:
GFS Medium Range Forecasts of 200mb Streamlines and Isotachs
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.jet.html
If there is a nexus between the two factors, and I think it is as their plots’ meanders line up a lot, and if the the GFS forecast for July the 2nd is correct we there will be even greater intrusion of warm air from the same hot areas of North America, Svalbard, Central North Russia and over Bearing Straits from Pacific Ocean.
Something of a “SAT NHemi Pinch Effect” will occur and the descending line on
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg plot will go down even more precipitously.
The question is whether the plot line can go down more “perpendicular” than it is going on now. 🙂
Regards

See - owe to Rich

I don’t understand why Steve G can be claiming that southerly winds compacted the ice in summer 2007, when claims have been repeatedly made that the low minimum that year was due to ice being blown *out of* the Arctic, which would require a generally northern wind component.
This seems inconsistent, and I’d appreciate seeing it explained.
Rich.

a reader

The NYT issued a correction on the 2000 story as there had clearly been open water at the NP before.
For some nice historical pictures of the North Pole see National Geographic Magazine:
Sept. 1926 p. 375–Richard Byrd crosses the NP on May 9, 1926. The photo shows recently frozen over water-leads separating ice fields.
August 1927 p. 208–Umberto Nobile, Lincoln Ellsworth, and Roald Amundsen drop their countries flags from the airship “Norge” at the NP on May 12, 1926. The photo shows several open leads and polynas as well as well broken ice.
October 1953 p. 478-479–Three very nice photos of the NP taken by G. Grosvenor on May 20, 1953 and overlain with a survey grid to verify the exact location and size. The photos show open leads and polynas.

The Arctic may soon be entirely free of sea ice.

Julienne

Ray says:
June 28, 2010 at 2:22 pm
Julienne says:
June 28, 2010 at 1:31 pm
______________
Look at the change of slope (Y2-Y1)/((X2/X1). Of course (X2/X1) = 1. So it is the difference in ice area between days that I was talking about.
—————-
Ray, that is exactly what I gave you, the difference in area between days.

Anu

So basically, it is weather (wind) rather than climate which controls the summer minimum.
No one has demonstrated much skill at forecasting winds six weeks in the future, so it is really anybody’s guess what wil happen this summer. Before August arrives, the pattern should be clear.

If someone actually believed this hand waving, then it would be just as likely that the Arctic sea ice minimum in September could be above the 1979-2000 average, as way below it. Why would the weather change so much in just 10 years ? It’s not like the climate is changing…
Someone believing in this “it’s just the weather” hypothesis would be expecting a summer minimum of about 7.5 million sq. km. of Arctic sea ice extent, or maybe 8.5 million if the “wind” is just right. Why would the weather be causing small summer minimums year after year after year after year ? It will probably go “back to normal” this summer:
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20090917_Figure2.png
Hey, it’s just the wind, and nobody can predict that, right ? The planet has been “cooling” for 15 years, and PIPS 2.0 shows “thick” ice all over the Arctic Basin. The Arctic sea ice will be partying like it’s 1989 this September, no doubt.
ಠ_ಠ

Buffoon

Steve,
How can the wind blow away from the pole? I don’t understand using “north” and “south” when describing a region so close to the pole.

Julienne

stevengoddard says:
June 28, 2010 at 2:09 pm
Julienne
I expect that when the Hudson Bay ice disappears during the next week or so, that the slope will start to drop off.
——————————
Hi Steve, well I guess we’ll have to wait and see. The Dipole Anomaly is persisting though, which does many things: (1) anomalously clear skies under the Beaufort Sea High; (2) advection of warm southerly air into the Arctic Basin; (3) strong meridional winds that push the ice away from the coasts; (4) stronger flow of ice out of Fram Strait and (5) inflow of warm Pacific water. The paper by Wang et al. (2009) nicely describes these processes. (Wang, J., J. Zhang, E. Watanabe, M. Ikeda, K. Mizobata, J. E. Walsh, X. Bai, and B. Wu (2009), Is the Dipole Anomaly a major driver to record lows in Arctic summer sea ice extent?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05706, doi:10.1029/2008GL036706)
So, if the DA continues, I would not expect the slope to slow in the next week or so even though Hudson Bay should be free of ice by then…

Jimbo

From The New York Times, 2000
“The last time scientists can be certain the pole was awash in water was more than 50 million years ago.”

Was it?
I don’t care what the damn extent is in September I remain unconvinced that it is unprecedented and unusual. What caused the following?
http://www.ngu.no/en-gb/Aktuelt/2008/Less-ice-in-the-Arctic-Ocean-6000-7000-years-ago/
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/06/16/historic-variation-in-arctic-ice-tony-b/
http://co2science.org/articles/V12/N32/C2.php
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
http://www.navsource.org/archives/08/08578.htm

Ray

Julienne says:
June 28, 2010 at 1:31 pm
————–
Here is my graph: http://i47.tinypic.com/1z7t5u.jpg
Of course I could have used a linear regression on the first derivative and it would have been worse that we thought…

jaypan

Adding Arctic and Antarctic ice volume changes, wouldn’t that give an overall perspective? Guess that the Arctic loss is a fraction of the Antarctic gain …

Ray says:
June 28, 2010 at 2:22 pm
> Look at the change of slope (Y2-Y1)/((X2/X1). Of course (X2/X1) = 1. So it is the difference in ice area between days that I was talking about.
Perhaps you mean (Y2-Y1)/(X2-X1). (X2/X1) is likely not one, unless the two points sampled are the same. (X2-X1) is only 1 if you are comparing adjacent days which I assume is what you meant and I thought was what Julienne did. (I don’t have time check, only time to point out obvious typos. 🙂 )

Smokey
Its good to see these old reports-you will also be aware of these ones.
Arctic ice melt is by no means a modern phenomenen and the NSIDC and IPCC seem reluctant to accept the concept of natural cycles of cooling and warming. The start of Satellite measuring in 1979 coincided with something approaching peak ice, following a extemded cooling period, which is why they always speak of subsequent decline;
History suggests you should look at a much longer time scale than thirty years which will put the modern era into its proper context..
Link 1 Ice extent maximum- Depends if you are talking winter or summer but ‘decline’ starts around 1976/9 from a high point.
http://geology.com/articles/northwest-passage.shtml
Link 2 This also shows the same;
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.area.jpg
Link 3 The IPCC report confirms this p351/2 figures 4.8 4.9 4.10
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter4.pdf
Link 4 The concerns over ‘global cooling’ in the 70’s which caused the arctic ice peak did have some basis in fact. There were a series of low temperatures in many arctic areas during the 70’s which ice would have corresponded to by growing.
http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Scientific/Arctic.htm
Link 5 From the CIA further confirmation of the cold period during this time.
http://www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf
As the IPCC show, the start of the satellite period therefore roughly coincided with a period of peak ice-so it is not at all surprising that as part of its natural cycle it should subsequently decline.
Link 6: The IPCC are not very good at their historic reconstructions and generally view actual observations as ‘anecdotal.’ They seem to believe that history did not start before 1979. My article examines the arctic melting in the period 1810-1860 -see notes at bottom of article with additional references.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/20/historic-variation-in-arctic-ice/#comments
Link 7: The next two links are good studies showing the arctic melting from the 1920’s to 1940’s; The first shows a warm period during the 1930s and 1940s with temperatures as high as those of today ftp://ftp.whoi.edu/pub/users/mtimmermans/ArcticSymposiumTalks/Smolyanitsky.pdf
Link 8: The second link illustrates reduced sea ice extent during this period, which only later returned to the high levels measured at the start of the latest retreating cycle in 1979 (when satellite measurements started).
http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/Chylek/greenland_warming.html
Link 9: The melting in the period 1920-1940 is very well documented.
Expeditions to the arctic to view the melting ice became the equivalent of todays celebrity jaunts to the area. The most famous were those mounted by Bob Bartlett on the Morrissey. I have carried extracts from his diary before-amongst the observation are a description of a mile wide face of a glacier falling in to the sea. There are pathe news reels of his voyages dating from the era, as well as books on the subject. Here is a bibliography of material relating to him. The diaries are of particlar interest.
http://www.nlpubliclibraries.ca/nlcollection/pdf/guides/NL_Collection_Guide_11.pdf
Link 10 Bernaerts, A. (2007). Can the “Big Warming” at Spitsbergen from 1918 to 1940 be explained? PACON 2007 Proceedings 325-337.
http://www.arctic-heats-up.com/pdf/Submitted_conference_paper.pdf
Link 11 This comes from contemporary 1927 newspaper reports showing Arctic ice melting in 1927
http://www.examiner.com/x-32936-Seminole-County-Environmental-News-Examiner~y2010m3d2-Arctic-Ocean-is-warming-icebergs-growing-scarcer-reports-Washington-Post
Link 12 Apparent warming in 1969 Arctic
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/nyt_arctic_77442757.pdf
Link 13 This shows a variety of arctic warming events over the last 150 years
http://www.examiner.com/x-32936-Seminole-County-Environmental-News-Examiner~y2010m3d2-Arctic-Ocean-is-warming-icebergs-growing-scarcer-reports-Washington-Post
Link 14: We have got this far citing instances of warming and not even mentioned the Vikings 1000 years ago…instead let’s look at another Arctic culture that thrived 1000 years before the Vikings;
From the Eskimo Times Monday, Mar. 17, 1941
“The corner of Alaska nearest Siberia was probably man’s first threshold to the Western Hemisphere. So for years archeologists have dug there for a clue to America’s prehistoric past. Until last year, all the finds were obviously Eskimo. Then Anthropologists Froelich G. Rainey of the University of Alaska and two collaborators struck the remains of a town, of inciedible size and mysterious culture. Last week in Natural History Professor Rainey, still somewhat amazed, described this lost Arctic city.
It lies at Ipiutak on Point Hope, a bleak sandspit in the Arctic Ocean, where no trees and little grass survive endless gales at 30° below zero. But where houses lay more than 2,000 years ago, underlying refuse makes grass and moss grow greener. The scientists could easily discern traces of long avenues and hundreds of dwelling sites. A mile long, a quarter-mile wide, this ruined city was perhaps as big as any in Alaska today (biggest: Juneau, pop. 5,700).
On the Arctic coast today an Eskimo village of even 250 folk can catch scarcely enough seals, whales, caribou to live on. What these ancient Alaskans ate is all the more puzzling because they seem to have lacked such Arctic weapons as the Eskimo harpoon.
Yet they had enough leisure to make many purely artistic objects, some of no recognizable use. Their carvings are vaguely akin to Eskimo work but so sophisticated and elaborate as to indicate a relation with some centre of advanced culture — perhaps Japan or southern Siberia —certainly older than the Aztec or Mayan.
This link leads to the Academy of science report of the same year regarding the Ipiutak culture described above
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1078291
Link 15 This from the late John Daly has numerous references to previous periods of arctic warming.
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
Link 16: This link shows various historic maps which again show that modern ice melt is the norm, not the exception. One of Greenland shows it as two separated islands and was cited by a polar French expedition which asserted that there is an ice cap joining what it is actually two islands. This extraordinary claim is backed up by observations from an 1820 Greenland expedition whereby locals remarked on folk lore which said the same thing. (see reference in Link 6)
http://www.nymapsociety.org/FEATURES/TRAGER.HTM
Link 17 We seem to have known more about dispersal of ice by wind and currents 150 years ago than we do now, factors which have a profound efect on extent, area, and melting. Many books date from the scientific expeditions mounted since 1820 that examined the ‘unprecdented ice melt in the arctic reported to the Royal Sociery. This book dates from 1870
http://www.archive.org/stream/arcticgeographye00roya#page/28/mode/2up
Certain of us seem reluctant to learn the lessons of history-in this case that there are periods of melting and refreeze of the Arctic area that appear to follow a roughly 60/70 year cycle. The satellite record coincided with one of the High spots of Arctic ice following a long cool period and we may or may not be at the low point in the cycle-that will become clearer over the next five years.
Whatever the alarmists may believe, at present our modern era is not displaying any climate characteristics that have not been experienced in past ages of humanity.
tonyb

Gail Combs

Ian W says:
June 28, 2010 at 1:37 pm
you ask: “Is it possible that the IPCC is trying to rewrite the history books?”
They would have to read the history before they could rewrite it.
The AGW proponent position seems to be that nothing exists prior to the satellite era except tree rings, ice-cores and other unvalidated proxies.
___________________________________________________________
You have that right.
Here is a map of the arctic sea based on the writings of the Norse (vikings) http://www.heritage.nf.ca/exploration/vmap.html
A present day Arctic Map: http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/pips_mask1.jpg
“…The settlers found that the area to the north of the Western Settlement, called the Nordseta, was good for hunting, fishing and gathering driftwood. A stone inscribed with runes has been found telling that in 1333, three Greenlanders wintered on the island of Kingigtorssuaq just below 73 degrees north. There is also evidence of voyages to the Canadian arctic. Two cairns have been discovered in Jones Sound above 76 degrees North and two more have been found on Washington Irving Island at 79 degrees north….” http://www.mnsu.edu/emuseum/prehistory/vikings/Greenland.html
Washington Irving Island is at the entrance to Dobbin Bay, eastern Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada. This area is well within the arctic circle and not that far from the north pole (about 600 miles) and certainly within the Beaufort Sea Gyro.
Also another rewrite of history in hopes of getting rid of the Little Ice Age, is that the Norse left Greenland because of poor farming practices causing soil erosion and not because of the increasing cold.
Science again proves that rewrite is wrong: http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/arctic48-4-324.pdf

Jimbo

Pamela Gray says:
June 28, 2010 at 1:42 pm
IMO, under those preferred circumstances outlined above, it behooves those of us who have made predictions and have stuck by them but that ended up way off, to post what learnings they gleened from the exercise of predicting something, and being significantly outside the bullseye. I challenge both sides of the debate of be prepared to do that on this blog.

Agreed. The problem with AGWers is that whenever their predictions fail they blame the opposite on AGW. There was a recent post about a claim that AGW will cause more snow in the NH as opposed to the one made 10 years ago in the Independent about snow becoming a thing of the past. How can you debate with people like this?
We sceptics can predict what we like, get it wrong and not worry about it. It is the AGWers who have created the theory and it’s up to them to make predictions (the strength of any climate theory).
Take a look at the warmlist and see how many contradictory stories there are:
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
Take a look at all the failed predictions from AGWers:
http://www.c3headlines.com/predictionsforecasts/

David

Anu says:
June 28, 2010 at 2:39 pm
“So basically, it is weather (wind) rather than climate which controls the summer minimum.
No one has demonstrated much skill at forecasting winds six weeks in the future, so it is really anybody’s guess what wil happen this summer. Before August arrives, the pattern should be clear.
If someone actually believed this hand waving, then it would be just as likely that the Arctic sea ice minimum in September could be above the 1979-2000 average, as way below it. Why would the weather change so much in just 10 years ? It’s not like the climate is changing…
Someone believing in this “it’s just the weather” hypothesis would be expecting a summer minimum of about 7.5 million sq. km. of Arctic sea ice extent, or maybe 8.5 million if the “wind” is just right. Why would the weather be causing small summer minimums year after year after year after year ? It will probably go “back to normal” this summer:
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20090917_Figure2.png
Hey, it’s just the wind, and nobody can predict that, right ? The planet has been “cooling” for 15 years, and PIPS 2.0 shows “thick” ice all over the Arctic Basin. The Arctic sea ice will be partying like it’s 1989 this September, no doubt.”
Anu, do you actually believe what you post or are you just trolling? Are you really asserting that any of the posters here are arguing the ice loss over the past 30 years is purely attributable to daily variations in wind and ocean currents?
I certainly haven’t seen this and I think you’re being incredibly disingenuous in trying to say this.

Julienne,
It looks to me like the vast majority of melt over the past week was in the Hudson Bay, so unless the Arctic Basin starts to lose ice much more quickly, the slope will have to drop off after Hudson Bay melts out.
http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/nsidcjune212010vsjune272010.jpg

Buffoon
Winds blowing away from the pole are north winds, and towards the pole are south winds.

latitude

“‘Smokey says:
June 28, 2010 at 2:36 pm
The Arctic may soon be entirely free of sea ice””
Smokey, that’s a classic, thank you
New York Times – 1969
Expert says Arctic to become an open sea in a decade or two.

See – owe to Rich
Most of the loss of old ice occurred during the winter of 2007-2008, not during the summer.

Anu
At the end of July, 2008 NSIDC was contemplating a possible “normal” summer minimum. Then “the perfect storm” hit and broke the ice up. It’s called “weather.”

David

My apologies for my previous post. Hopefully the moderators will snip it.
I am not quite clear though on what Anu is trying to say when he says
“Someone believing in this “it’s just the weather” hypothesis would be expecting a summer minimum of about 7.5 million sq. km. of Arctic sea ice extent, or maybe 8.5 million if the “wind” is just right. ”
I don’t think I’ve seen anyone claim that there hasn’t been ice loss over the past 30 years. Much of the discussion has revolved around how much can be read into short term ice loss trends and how they’re likely to relate to the potential September mininum. In this context I find your comment a little disingenuous Anu.

Julienne

Ray, obviously the JAXA data differs from the NSIDC data. I am using 5-day running means to reduce influences from weather effects which I don’t believe JAXA is doing. Curious what your rate of decline is for June. Mine is 87,350 sq-km per day from June 1 to June 27.