By Steven Goddard,
Surely the world must be coming to an end, preceded by the demise of Arctic Ice. Some of my current favorites are listed below.
PIOMASS shows that Arctic ice volume has dropped to unprecedented lows.
Ice melt has been the fastest on record.
Hottest ocean temperatures on record.
Skeptics are incompetent and unqualified.
Ultimately, the best way to make a name for oneself as a scientist is to overthrow the conventional hypothesis “but to do that it takes extraordinarily good science,” Schneider notes. Climate change contrarians have yet to do this.
(But it is OK for the IPCC to do “extraordinarily bad science.” Only 24 years till the last glacier melts in the Himalayas)
We are making bigger hurricanes.
Skeptics are Holocaust Deniers.
Less than a minute into President Obama’s Oval Office address, my heart sank. For the umpteenth time since the Gulf of Mexico oil spill began, an anxious nation was informed that Energy Secretary Steven Chu has a Nobel Prize. Obama’s speech pretty much went down hill from there.
Nobel Prize winner Al Gore has been busy with masseuses of late. This seems to have slowed down his activities to save the planet, just when his planet is screaming out to him.
She said she was intimidated by his physical size, calling him “rotund,” described his “violent temper, dictatorial, commanding attitude” — what she termed a contrast from his “Mr. Smiley global-warming concern persona.”
and IPCC lead Dr Pachauri has been busy writing porn novels, when not publishing other fiction.
Surely, with ice at a record low volume, at record hot temperatures, with record decline of ice, the hottest sea surface temperatures ever, and the oceans turning acidic – we must be headed for a nearly ice-free Arctic this summer. Anyone who has been touting these undeniable facts from the leading experts, must be willing to sign up for a huge record minimum. Like Wilson, who is predicting 1.0 million km². What are you waiting for? If you believe all this stuff, Wilson is your man.
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2010/june
Wilson (No organization provided); 1.0 Million Square Kilometers; Statistical and Heuristic 2007’s El Nino did three things to melt off 40% of ice volume relative to 2006: (1) 2007 was hot, 2010 was more so; December was the highest monthly anomaly ever, February was 4th highest, March 10th highest, April 7th highest and the warmest April ever
I wonder if Lewis Pugh is getting his kayak ready again?
30 August 2008
This year, for the first time, scientists predict that the North Pole could briefly be ice free and that has inspired Mr Pugh to try to find a way through….”Nobody has ever attempted to kayak to the pole before. In fact, it would have been impossible last year because it was frozen over,” he said.
It should be an easy trip, because the New York Times reported 10 years ago that the North Pole had already melted, like the Wicked Witch Of The West :
Ages-Old Icecap at North Pole Is Now Liquid, Scientists Find
By JOHN NOBLE WILFORD Published: August 19, 2000
The thick ice that has for ages covered the Arctic Ocean at the pole has turned to water, recent visitors there reported yesterday. At least for the time being, an ice-free patch of ocean about a mile wide has opened at the very top of the world, something that has presumably never before been seen by humans and is more evidence that global warming may be real and already affecting climate. The last time scientists can be certain the pole was awash in water was more than 50 million years ago.
Not to mention that the New York Times predicted an ice free Arctic over 40 years ago. After they predicted an ice age 80 years ago. And before Time Magazine predicted an Ice Age in 1974.
Hopefully this is all perfectly clear. “Just Do It”
Curious Yellow says:
June 28, 2010 at 3:34 am
[–snip for brevity–]
The travesty is you analising a graph using your computer zoom, decidedly bizarre. Just download the daily readings, make a day to day graph, see the wriggles in the line and discover that the average is a straight line.
So then, if someone does something out of the ordinary, but which in no way affects the facts of the matter, why they are to be derided?
And what about what the ice was doing say 50 years ago, or 100, or 300, or 1000?
That’s not relevant? Only today’s data is? Is it your thought that only today —or only the most recent history— matters?
Curious Yellow says:
June 28, 2010 at 3:50 am
I note that some are drawn to the World Cup soccer in the comments. May I propose organising a match between 2 international teams; the Alarmists and The Skeptics, to be held on the North Pole, at summer solstice asap. If we wait too long, they may have to be water-polo teams.
Well, you see? Right off the bat you’ve both mislabeled yourself, and mischaracterized your opponents, the Skeptics.
You would be more correct to label your team as the ‘Propagandists,’ inasmuch as they endeavor to present skewed information, and resort to repeating the same tired pablum as if doing such will make it become the truth of the matter. And your mascot should be T.D. Lysenko.
Now, the Skeptics might take you up on your offer, but only after there has been a sufficient period of investigation using REAL SCIENCE ™ as opposed to ‘nature tricks’ regarding the thickness of the ice and the location of the game.
Alexander K says:
June 28, 2010 at 7:08 am
I note a few Koolade drinkers have migrated from the Guardian CIFGreen blog. Someone must have told them to go forth and be missionaries for George the Moonbat …
______________________________________________________________________
One hopes that at least some have the intelligence to actually see what is said here at WUWT. From some of the comments I have seen at neutral blogs, luke-warmers wandering onto WUWT are very surprised that it is not the “unscientific” kook blog they have been lead to believe it is, and that it compares quite favorably to Realclimate.
From: Curious Yellow on June 28, 2010 at 3:34 am
Another travesty (a real one) is in your rush to criticize you have supplied a link to the IARC-JAXA extent data (which I already have in a spreadsheet w/ graphs) when I was talking about the PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume anomaly chart. If you have a link to the PIOMAS numbers that are being graphed then supply it. Without it, staring at that graph is about the best and fastest method I have for getting PIOMAS info.
“Curious Yellow says:
June 28, 2010 at 3:50 am
I note that some are drawn to the World Cup soccer in the comments. May I propose organising a match between 2 international teams; the Alarmists and The Skeptics, to be held on the North Pole, at summer solstice asap. If we wait too long, they may have to be water-polo teams.”
It might surprise you but ice-free leads at the north pole in summer are nothing unusual.
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
See also
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead_(sea_ice)
Last year during the Modoki, we in the North Central did not get to the 2300 degree days to mature the corn. Rough luck in late rain and cool temps left much of the crops north of say, 43 degrees latitude, were left in the fields.
This year we’re 48 degree days behind near the end of June. Climate certainly has its effect, but last year’s pattern and this are different, yet the same result in this one effect.
So where’s the heat? April was hot but May and June not.
stevengoddard says:
June 27, 2010 at 9:08 pm
Anu
It should be obvious that sunlight warmed water can only melt ice which is very local. i.e. It doesn’t melt ice 100 km away, and the Arctic summer is very short.
Except of course that the Arctic sea ice is warmed by Atlantic water flowing under the ice.
Nice try Phil
http://www.wsag.unh.edu/arctic/project.summary.html
“Since the water masses beneath the Arctic Ocean surface waters are warmer than the surface waters in contact with the polar ice, the maintenance of the physical separation provided by the stratification provided by saltier layers below is essential to the existence of the permanent polar ice cover. Without this permanent stratification, the ice cover would melt. This would greatly affect the climate of the polar regions because the ice reflects much more of the incoming solar radiation than seawater.”
stevengoddard says:
June 28, 2010 at 6:47 am
Curious Yellow
We are a week past the solstice and the ice at the North Pole is about three metres thick. You seem a bit confused.
Hmm, the measured thickness at Camp Barneo at the beginning of April was 1.6m.
stevengoddard says:
June 28, 2010 at 10:17 am
Nice try Phil
http://www.wsag.unh.edu/arctic/project.summary.html
“Since the water masses beneath the Arctic Ocean surface waters are warmer than the surface waters in contact with the polar ice, the maintenance of the physical separation provided by the stratification provided by saltier layers below is essential to the existence of the permanent polar ice cover. Without this permanent stratification, the ice cover would melt. This would greatly affect the climate of the polar regions because the ice reflects much more of the incoming solar radiation than seawater.”
Nice Cherry picking Steve.
According to Maslowski (my emphasis):
“Oceanic heat advection has contributed significant forcing (>60%)
to sea ice melt during the last decade
4. CCSM3/HadGEM1 (and potentially many other GCMs) simulations
compared to NPS and observational estimates:
a) have too weak northward heat fluxes through Bering / Chukchi seas,
which explains why they have too much ice in the western Arctic
b) have too weak northward and recirculating fluxes at Fram Strait, which
allow too much ice in the Greenland Sea
c) simulate too much volume and heat flux through the Barents Sea and
try to melt the sea ice cover from the eastern side
which is why their predictions are too conservative”
Someone suggested recently I should read something at Logical Science (which has a cute “A Rundown of the Skeptics & Deniers” set of lists BTW). Well, it used to be a Blogger (Blogspot) site, on which I found this wonderful past prophesy of ARCTIC DOOM:
Out of the twelve comments, of which the last ten are spam, we have this wonderful reply to an “Oh, please!” comment:
Sadly the apparent sheer wrongness of this prophesy is not unprecedented.
Oh well, two years to go. They might still get lucky. 🙂
Phil,
According to Maslowski, the Arctic will be ice free in three years.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Phil. says:
June 28, 2010 at 11:31 am
stevengoddard says:
June 28, 2010 at 6:47 am
Curious Yellow
We are a week past the solstice and the ice at the North Pole is about three metres thick. You seem a bit confused.
Hmm, the measured thickness at Camp Barneo at the beginning of April was 1.6m.
About as thick as your skull, eh, Phil? 🙂
Phil. says:
June 28, 2010 at 11:45 am
[–snip for brevity–]Nice Cherry picking Steve.
According to Maslowski (my emphasis):
“Oceanic heat advection has contributed significant forcing (>60%)
to sea ice melt during the last decade
4. CCSM3/HadGEM1 (and potentially many other GCMs) simulations
compared to NPS and observational estimates:
a) have too weak northward heat fluxes through Bering / Chukchi seas,
which explains why they have too much ice in the western Arctic
b) have too weak northward and recirculating fluxes at Fram Strait, which
allow too much ice in the Greenland Sea
c) simulate too much volume and heat flux through the Barents Sea and
try to melt the sea ice cover from the eastern side
which is why their predictions are too conservative”
Phil,
What happens to the polar sea water, when the polar ice melts?
HINT: Heat exchange.
If the polar waters cool sufficiently as a result of the melting ice, how much more sunlight will be needed to bring those waters back to equilibrium?
And you can’t resort to CO2 since it is ~already~ absorbed by the ice and the water.
Catch 22 time: IF CO2 were to any kind of agent for so-called CAGW, then the ice would have all melted by this time, and the waters would be roiling!
Any agent which facilitates energy transfer, will exhibit a coequal ability to either heat or cool.
HINT #2: CO2 isn’t a diode, nor does it react as one.
Re: stevengoddard on June 28, 2010 at 12:09 pm
Interesting contrasts between this and the piece I dug up:
December 11, 2007: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
December 12, 2007: Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
December 12, 2007:
December 11, 2007:
Ah, the difference a day makes. 🙂
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
June 28, 2010 at 12:49 pm
[–snip for brevity–]
Ah, the difference a day makes. 🙂
You have to wonder if those characters aren’t reading from a script …
Excerpt from: stevengoddard on June 28, 2010 at 6:47 am
Steven, FWIW Topaz (Nansen) currently shows (June 28 map) the North Pole right on a dividing line, roughly the 0-180° line, by eyeball it looks like 1.7 meters currently, when zoomed in you could argue it’s 1.9 m. It’s also showing some seriously thick ice at the edges (scale maxes out at 3 meters) I presume offhand where you said the compaction would be.
Comparing with the zoomed-in PIPS map, I can see similar features that match up, the 0-180° line is there, and what looks like the 2.75 m shade of green could be at the North Pole.
However, it is also arguable, up close to the pole, whether or not Topaz and PIPS are agreeing as to which side of 0-180° the thicker ice is on. My, this ice thickness modeling stuff can get tricky. 🙂
Teleconnected ice?