By Steven Goddard
No matter what happens with the summer Arctic ice minimum, NSIDC will report that the long-term trend is downwards.
Why? Because of mathematics. In order to reverse the 30 year downwards linear trend, this summer’s minimum would have to be nearly 20,000,000 km². More ice than has ever been directly measured.
In other words, we could have a “Day After Tomorrow” scenario, and the mathematical trend would still be downwards.
Conclusion: You can count on NSIDC to continue reporting a downwards trend, regardless of what happens over the next few years. For now, it will be fun seeing what happens over the next eight weeks.
899 says:
June 25, 2010 at 11:17 am
Jack Simmons says:
June 25, 2010 at 8:02 am
[–snip–]
Can someone, please, tell me why I should be concerned about any trends in the Arctic ice.
[–snip–]
YOU are NOT supposed to be questioning things. Rather, you’re supposed to simply accept what you’ve been programmed to accept.
VILLABOLO RESPONDS:
Jack Simmons:
Perhaps because the weather will change throughout most of the Northern Hemisphere to our detriment.
899:
Are public schools the only “programmers”? Perhaps you’re accepting some other institution’s “instructions”.
More to the point, regardless of whether you believe in GW or not, do you actually think that an open Arctic Sea will have no impact on the dynamics of weather?
Look
I think we can all see in Europe right now that when Arctic temperatures get warmer, we get colder weather. And when it gets cold in the Arctic, we get milder stuff.
So I don’t think, per se, that Arctic Sea Ice is the sole measurement of armageddon.
It’s a good bit of science and its good to come up with understanding of how it works.
But it’s only one small cog in the climate system.
And people at NSIDC and elsewhere should realise that……….
—–
What prediction was that? Ice free Arctic in summer? Presently that has not yet come to pass. Runaway spiral melting? Still waiting chaps. Even if it did it would be my duty to point out an inconvenient truth:
http://www.ngu.no/en-gb/Aktuelt/2008/Less-ice-in-the-Arctic-Ocean-6000-7000-years-ago/
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/06/16/historic-variation-in-arctic-ice-tony-b/
http://co2science.org/articles/V12/N32/C2.php
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
Guess what year?
2010? 2007?
Correct answer 1922. Now if this was 2010 September then Co2 gets the finger. If 1922 then it’s natural climate variability.
Source: NOAA
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf
899 says:
June 25, 2010 at 9:25 am
Richard Holle says:
June 25, 2010 at 7:34 am
Dave Springer says:
June 25, 2010 at 4:18 am
[–snip–]
The answer my friend, is blowing in the solar wind,
If what you say is true, then a mere ‘rewinding’ of history would reveal that matter.
When were the last times such happened in, say, the Medieval —or other— times?
______________________________________
Uranus and Neptune had this last synod conjunction on April 20th, 1993 -179 years would be 1814 -179 = 1635 – 179 = 1456 – 179 = 1277 -179 = 1098 – 179 = 919 etc.
I don’t know what time of year that the Earth passed them then, but I would consider that data important in the actual timing of the peak melt effect.
I just think it is a shame they spend so much time and money looking at CO2, and none in looking at solar/ lunar / planetary interactive effects, because of an unsubstantiated belief that models will forecast better.
899 says:
June 25, 2010 at 12:34 pm
Did they predict Washington, D.C.’s snow storm last winter? NO.
Did the predict Jokenhagen’s snow storm last winter? NO.
Did the predict the U.K.’s COMPLETE snow coverage? NO.
Gee, so far that’s batting 1000.
Why are you cherry picking the areas that where colder than average when they amounted to no more than 10-15% of the Earth’s surface? The other 85-90% was warmer than average. The Southern Hemisphere was blazing hot with temperatures of 122F in South Africa and heatwaves in Brazil and Australia.
The Arctic area itself was 10F above average that winter with most of Canada up to 10F warmer?
“Gee”, you need to get out of yard.
In all of this thread, I fail to see even one clearly stated mechanism for exactly how CO2 heats oceans. Warm air, such as you might find with re-radiated longwave infrared will evaporate the top skin off of oceans. Therefore it cannot, I repeat cannot heat the ocean below that evaporative surface.
Tell me how CO2 affects either El Nino’s (frequency or strength) or any other oceanic or atmospheric (such as in the AO) weather pattern variation.
Quote:
Dave Springer says:
June 25, 2010 at 4:18 am
It appears to me from the satellite record there was no downward trend in arctic sea ice from 1979 to 1996 then in 1997 something happened that started a downward trend that lasted for about 10 years then leveled off.
CO2 emissions didn’t skyrocket in 1997 did they?
Hmm… what else can melt some ice? Anyone? Anything? Bueller?
Unquote
Could it have something to do with the chemtrails being sprayed of and on from about 1997 – 1998 around the entine world?
As Jimbo shows in his excellent references, nothing out of the ordinary is happening. What is happening today has happened many times in the pre-SUV past.
villabolo
With about eight or nine weeks of possible melting left, do you see any evidence of an “open Arctic Sea?”
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent.png
Quote: (piece of a very important email)
AN AIRLINE MANAGER’S STATEMENT
Posted by C.E. Carnicom on behalf of the author
May 22 2000
The email from the anonymous mechanic rings true. Airline companies in
America have been participating in something called Project Cloverleaf
for a few years now. The earliest date anyone remembers being briefed
on it is 1998. I was briefed on it in 1999. The few airline employees
who were briefed on Project Cloverleaf were all made to undergo
background checks, and before we were briefed on it we were made to sign
non-disclosure agreements, which basically state that if we tell anyone
what we know we could be imprisoned.
Unquote
Search for project cloverleaf starting at 1998.. I think there could be some link between that and some serious weather issues.. I have many questions around the subject, especialy what it does to our weather and the sky above our heads.. Only if u have your head up your dark place u dont see what is going on above you.. The clouds they make must have an enormous affect on our daily weather… I see airplanes flying at to dam low altitudes to produce the type of clouds they make.. It is just plain bullshit! Sorry for getting a bit angry but i am fed up with this.. All of u, and i mean every single one of you.. U know deep inside that it is just too damn much.. U all see it and accept it becuase your mind is being altered to.. U see chemtrail commercials, cartoons, movies, advertisements and games (nintendo Wii for sure).. They all contribute to accepting that they spray chemicals into the damn air we breath! And everyone just ignores it.. The fact that the chemtrails are there, it must mean something.. they are doing something to our sky. There is a purpose, and i am dying to find out wich one!
Peace..
Please respond..
Global sea ice has achieved a net change of about zero in over 30 years of global warming.
http://noconsensus.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/global-daily-ice-area-withtrend1.jpg
Jimbo,
your point that there was less ice cover in the Arctic 6000-7000 years ago is not without merit.
http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1039&context=ees_papers
This paper finds that sea levels were 5 meters higher at that time.
I am not at all saying that melting the floating ice will raise sea levels, but what I am saying is
that if the floating ice is melting, then the land locked ice is also likely to melt.
As for the rest, as an ex-submariner who has been under the ice, I always appreciate pictures of submarines that have surfaced through the ice. I was on a 688 class boat with fairwater planes that would be severely damaged surfacing through the ice.
Pamela Gray says:
June 25, 2010 at 3:10 pm
In all of this thread, I fail to see even one clearly stated mechanism for exactly how CO2 heats oceans. Warm air, such as you might find with re-radiated longwave infrared will evaporate the top skin off of oceans. Therefore it cannot, I repeat cannot heat the ocean below that evaporative surface.
Repeat it all you like you’re still wrong.
I, for one, don’t consider the removal of “chemtrail” posts to be censorship… I consider that equal to removing pron and viagra ads…. hint hint…
Smokey says:
June 25, 2010 at 3:13 pm
What is happening today is that every new bit of knowledge is imagined by some as proof of Earth-ending doom.
We didn’t do that 50 years ago.
An interesting statistic: People who panic in times of real crisis are the most likely to perish.
e.g. – running pell-mell in a burning building without taking the slightest pause to reason where not to go: proof of natural selection at work.
To me, linear trend is what we should be looking at. That’s the source of the “worse than we thought” meme. If the linear trend starts to reverse, we are (in my view) fully justified to call that “recovery” (but not “recovered”)..
From what I can see, anything above 5.5M would give us a result above the linear trend for the first time since. . . actually, I’m not sure. I was about to say 2006, but that’s not necessarily so. That this graph shows 2006 above the linear trend is impacted by the 2007-2009 results. At minimum 2006 it may not have been above the linear trend.
Belvedere says:
June 25, 2010 at 3:25 pm
Economics. They burn the cheapest fuel they can get away with in doing the heavy lifting.
Far as I know, Clean Air Standards are not enforced in the Friendly Skies. Just don’t crash & burn.
Rhys Jaggar says:
June 25, 2010 at 2:33 pm
Look
I think we can all see in Europe right now that when Arctic temperatures get warmer, we get colder weather. And when it gets cold in the Arctic, we get milder stuff.
So I don’t think, per se, that Arctic Sea Ice is the sole measurement of armageddon.
[–snip–]
But it’s only one small cog in the climate system.
VILLABOLO RESPONDS:
I realize that there is more to the climate in general than the mere Arctic. The ice cap, however, is definitely not a small cog. Even if it were a “small” cog, the disruption of a single cog can be catastrophic to the whole system.
When the Arctic Ice Cap goes, the issue will not be whether it’s warmer or colder as you mentioned, the issue will be the OPEN WATERS. The effects of such open waters will lead to a chain reaction of changing weather systems throughout the Northern Hemisphere that will not be to our liking.
It will affect the timing and productivity of our crops as well. It will amplify the rain cycle, as the open waters heat up, causing torrential rains. It will be more severe compared to the weather conditions you described.
As for “Armageddon” that silly word is nothing more than a fantasy catastrophe. Fantasy catastrophes don’t preclude the possibility of real ones like the Maya and Easter Island.
Anthony Watts mentions at 6:05 AM WUWT time: “I note that this post makes Tamino mad.”
carrot eater, noted sycophant of Tamino’s frequently dwelling at his site, shows up at 7:03 AM.
Correlation…causation… Correlation…causation…
Oh, and at 7:31 AM toby mentions Neven, a truly charming fellow. Found this sample over at Lucia’s site, May 29, at a post about betting on the June Arctic sea ice:
Charming, like a dog that takes a dump on the floor right after you’ve cleaned up yet another of its “accidents” and immediately comes to you expecting to be petted. Absolutely wonderful, indeed.
VILLABOLO RESPONDS:
When the Arctic Ice Cap goes, the issue will not be whether it’s warmer or colder as you mentioned, the issue will be the OPEN WATERS. The effects of such open waters will lead to a chain reaction of changing weather systems throughout the Northern Hemisphere that will not be to our liking.
—-
Please respond and explain why speculation of a “chain reaction” failed in the past. Read these links and explain as I can’t seem to match the past with your “chain reaction”.
http://www.ngu.no/en-gb/Aktuelt/2008/Less-ice-in-the-Arctic-Ocean-6000-7000-years-ago/
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/06/16/historic-variation-in-arctic-ice-tony-b/
http://co2science.org/articles/V12/N32/C2.php
kadaka
Interesting posts from Neven. He isn’t actually challenging anything I am posting, rather he “suspects” that I am not doing any research.
Also interesting that my forecast for the minimum is identical to that of Julienne, whom no doubt he holds in very high esteem.
It goes to show how irrational AGW groupies can be.
stevengoddard says:
June 25, 2010 at 3:16 pm
stevengoddard says:
June 25, 2010 at 3:16 pm
villabolo
With about eight or nine weeks of possible melting left, do you see any evidence of an “open Arctic Sea?”
VILLABOLO:
Steve, I have never claimed that the Arctic Ice Cap is going to open up this year or even 2013-2015 like Maslowski said. Let me clarify what I am predicting.
1) With the exception of a small stretch of ice north of Canada, where the waters are shallower and colder, I predict the following. Ice free summers in the Arctic Sea area by 2015-2020.
2) This ice free condition will probably start out for a few days or weeks at first. As the waters warm up, it will stretch out to one then two or more months. How long that progression takes I really don’t have a clue.
3) As far as Sea Ice Extent is concerned I make another prediction, which, to me is obvious. The winter and early summer Sea Ice Extent will still hang on for a while. Probably decades for the winter. Silly as it is to mention, I bring up in light of another prediction.
4) Skeptics will still be watching it for signs of any regrowth. And such regrowth will probably happen, temporarily, once or twice. That would be due to either La Ninas and or volcanic eruptions.
5) Weather changes. Those are definitely hard to pinpoint in time or as to whether severe conditions will happen almost immediately, 1-3, years or take several years to progress.
One thing I definitely predict about the weather changes is that THEY WILL HAPPEN as a result of the Arctic Sea opening up.
Thanks again Steve, your last two questions have been challenging.
From: stevengoddard on June 25, 2010 at 4:36 pm
Interesting how he can point to one comment as the obvious inspiration for a post, when we were hashing out PIOMAS absurdities and ice volume estimates for months previous in the comments.
I’ve seen her posts here a few times, and otherwise have no idea who she is. Would you have some info about her, perhaps some links?
He says to the guy who had a running argument with a certain commentator spanning several articles, said commentator insisting that PIPS 2.0 was long dead and mothballed with the US Navy now using PIPS 3.0, for which I consumed a whole lot of time researching and writing and proofreading, basically generating whole articles to conclusively show he was wrong (last one here)… Leading to the grand concession: ‘Alright, maybe 2.0 is still operational, but the Navy sure isn’t using it for anything important, they have better tools available!’
Although in all fairness, would he be only 0.75 (75%) irrational AGW groupie? Would we lose any appreciable level of precision by rounding up to the whole number? 🙂
One thing is certain: when all of us die, Arctic Ice still will be there.
Anthony: Yes, it is brave and glorious to sign your posts by your own name, though it is more dangerous. My website has been attacked after posting here (I didn’t post much anywhere else, too busy), and I am still cleaning up the mess. Threats of physical violence are more of an exception that the rule yet, but the larger is your perceived public caliber, the higher the probability. Become paranoid before it’s too late.