By Steven Goddard,
In order to better visualize what is happening in the Arctic this summer, I generated an animation of satellite photos over the area of open water west of Barrow, AK. It reveals a very dynamic ice edge – with the ice moving as it is blown around by winds associated with the Beaufort Gyre.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/archive/mag/2010/mag_2010062200.gif
The region of ice in the video is shown in blue below.
Here is what I see.
- The ice edge is moving left to right about 10 miles per day.
- Ice is being torn off the main ice sheet north of Barrow.
- A large chunk of ice in the center of the open water (on June 18) moves northwest, crashes into the main mass of ice, and disintegrates.
- Little evidence of melting.
- The landfast ice is not showing any changes.
- Lakes are still frozen solid.
What do you see?
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Phil. says:
June 25, 2010 at 11:04 am
“The disintegration of that “large chunk of ice” shows how ‘rotten’ it really is.”
It seems to me that the breakup of the “large chunk of ice” was not caused, as Steve surmises, by crashing into the main mass of ice, but because it hit something stationary, perhaps a sandbar or an island. Still, that does not provide any clue about “how rotten” the ice floe was when it broke up. What do you use as a measuring standard for that?
The one scientific conclusion we can make from all of this debate is; Global Warming, Global Cooling, and Climate Change are Not man’s fault. Man has no significant effect on any of these conditions. I defy any credible scientist to present factual proof that I am wrong and prove otherwise. Therefor, I am right and no one on the planet is more accurate than me on this conclusion if they cannot prove me wrong.
Thank you for giving me credit on settling this issue on behalf of humanity. I now absolve everyone on the planet who has taken blame for climate change. It’s not your fault.
Phil,
Have you located the sea ice west of Barrow yet, or do you still believe that the University of Alaska is running an elaborate hoax?
It’s clear that the main source of rapid ice loss syndrome is wind action. However, I think it might be a mistake to discount the possibility that this intensification in the ice loss could be associated with the increase in temperature differential between arctic lands and oceans.
See this. Whatever the origin of the warming, it does suggest that we’d expect stronger arctic circulation, driven in part by land-ocean temperature differences, to be a factor in this. (And I think the data are plenty robust to accept the result that there is a latitudinal effect on mean temperature trend over multi-decadal periods.)
“What wonders [amazes] me is how quickly SST has risen for several degrees over ONE month! Could [someone] more knowledgeable explain this phenomena to me?” says Przemislaw Pawelczik. If that rise is factual I guarantee it was not the hot Arctic sun that caused it. Arctic warming is caused by warm water brought into the arctic by ocean currents, not by any greenhouse effect or some magical “arctic amplification” of it. On the Atlantic side the main source of warmth is the Gulf Stream which keeps the Russian Arctic ports open. It has eaten away a third of the sea ice that would have existed in its absence. A smaller amount enters from the Pacific side through the Bering Strait. Thanks to winds more than the usual amount of warm water came through the Bering Strait in 2007 and created a large bubble of open water just north of the strait while the Gulf Stream side hardly changed. The Arctic warming is nothing new: it started at the beginning of the twentieth century when a rearrangement of the North Atlantic current system directed the Gulf Stream unto its present northerly course.
1979-80 Eureka, I watched as 12 feet of ice in the fjord started melting in early summer, but when the wind blew from the east, it drove the ice out the fjord and into Eureka Sound. That current heads south, taking away the ice. Wind does have a huge effect. Guess what, that winter, the ice returned! However, I believe I split a glass of milk up there once, it was Catastrophic! Perhaps that is what started the “death spiral”.
Phil. says:
June 25, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Propaganda is the provenance of those in or seeking to gain absolute power, not those doing the questioning.
Try another political point.
This is what happens when the POTUS starts apologizing to everybody.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/24/2936414.htm
Phil, it must be nice to be tenured, living off working taxpayers while posting here and on other blogs 24/7.
Steve Goddard writes lots of articles. So instead of slacking, why don’t you write your own article for WUWT? You could do it on your tenured salary, just like you post. Then you can see what receiving pot shots is like, instead of shooting them at others throughout your putative work day.
You could start by explaining how CO2 is melting the North Pole ice, while it leaves Antarctica alone. That would be truly fascinating. Or anything connecting CO2 with Arctic ice cover, or with global warming in general — as long as it’s within the parameters of the Scientific Method.
You game?
Arno Arrak says:
June 25, 2010 at 6:55 pm
Warmists just don’t get the concept: If your tropical warm water heads too far North, it’s no different that leaving your front door open in winter. The heat escapes and your house freezes.
After looking at the latest pics from MODIS and PIOMAS and JAXA and NSIDC, all of them in agreement with what real-time Arctic scientists are saying, and what the research literature has been saying for years, coming back to this site is like a window looking out on a different Arctic reality.
Personal observation in SW Florida.
Since the contrails stopped happening because of the Gulf oil spill, I notice it cools down a lot faster in the evening. It is now a comfortable 79 degrees in Cape Coral. Florida is like a desert, hot during the day and cooler at night because of the lack of cloud cover from the lack contrails. Last year wasn’t so nice at night.
I look forward to the death count this coming winter from freezing conditions in the northern hemisphere. I wonder how the death count is going to turn out from freezing conditions in the southern hemisphere this year.
stevengoddard says: wrote
June 25, 2010 at 7:07 pm
“This is what happens when the POTUS starts apologizing to everybody.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/24/2936414.htm
LOL!
Walter Schneider says:
June 25, 2010 at 6:40 pm
Phil. says:
June 25, 2010 at 11:04 am
“The disintegration of that “large chunk of ice” shows how ‘rotten’ it really is.”
It seems to me that the breakup of the “large chunk of ice” was not caused, as Steve surmises, by crashing into the main mass of ice, but because it hit something stationary, perhaps a sandbar or an island.
The water there is about 50+m deep as far as I can tell and no islands.
Still, that does not provide any clue about “how rotten” the ice floe was when it broke up. What do you use as a measuring standard for that?
When it disintegrates like that piece did it’s pretty rotten.
July will be where it all will come together-or apart. Bastardi seems to think that with
the SST’s in the Pacific cooling, the loss will slow and come back quickly….
Smokey says:
June 25, 2010 at 7:08 pm
Phil, it must be nice to be tenured, living off working taxpayers while posting here and on other blogs 24/7.
I guess it might be, I wouldn’t know.
Steve Goddard writes lots of articles. So instead of slacking, why don’t you write your own article for WUWT? You could do it on your tenured salary, just like you post. Then you can see what receiving pot shots is like, instead of shooting them at others throughout your putative work day.
Anthony’s conditions to allow me to post aren’t acceptable.
Gneiss says:
June 25, 2010 at 7:34 pm
“After looking at the latest pics from MODIS and PIOMAS and JAXA and NSIDC, all of them in agreement with what real-time Arctic scientists are saying, and what the research literature has been saying for years, coming back to this site is like a window looking out on a different Arctic reality.”
==========================
Yep, it’s all about the funding.
stevengoddard,
You stated that volume equal area * thickness.
Your charts say that the current average thickness is 2.5 metres.
Your charts also say that the current average volume is 55,000 cubic kilometres.
This means (using the equation that you outlined) that you are using an area of over 20 million square kilometres in your calculations.
Can you please clarify if this is indeed the area that you are using in your calculations. It would be a very simple thing just to tell me, and everyone here, what the precise numbers in your calculations are. There are only three of the, after all, and one of them – volume – is derived from the other two.
What is your current average calculated thickness? Is it 2.5 metres?
What is your current calculated volume? Is it 55,000 cubic kilometres?
What is the area that you are using in the equation? Is it 20 million square kilometres?
It would be very simple of you to confirm the figures that you are using. I am wondering why you are refusing to do so … If it is because you do not want to admit making an arithmetic error, do not worry about that – everyone makes them from time to time. If it is because you are aware that I have made an arithmetic error and want to spare my feelings, don’t worry about that, either – I have made too many arithmetic errors in my time to be overly concerned about another one.
Oh, and I have read all your sea ice posts. There is nothing in them about the area value that you are using in your volume calculations that I have seen. I may have missed it. But you can simply cut and paste in in a response here if you have already posted it, or just point me to the direct link.
Michael says:
June 25, 2010 at 2:25 pm
kwik says: wrote
June 25, 2010 at 1:15 pm
I think its the Sun.
“Hot Tip; Sun-Gate coming up?;”
Thanks Kwik. I love this kind of news. Let me post a bit of the article…
————-
Perfect.
Gneiss says:
June 25, 2010 at 7:34 pm
That’s what happens when you stare too long at lifeless masses of ice.
Try reading Jack London’s story about the two who decided to stay all winter in the Arctic Night.
What a lovely place. Beachfront sales, anyone?
StevenGoddard,
Thank you for setting me straight on the Arctic ice being freshwater at this time of year, that makes sense.
As to a week being a long time in the arctic melt season, I understand what you’re saying, but my point is that this year would seem to be atypical already because of the rapid decline of ice extent for the last three months. It’s obviously NOT “global warming”, because the temps are about right for this time of year. That, to me, means something else is at work. Wind patterns? under water volcanoes? I don’t know. The temperatures do seem to resemble 2006, so why doesn’t the ice extent?
Thanks for any insight that I am missing.
David Gould
I have never produced any chart using cubic kilometres, and had you actually read my posts (as you claim) you would know that my measured units of volume are pixel-metres.
You are too anxious to speak, and not bothering to listen.
stevengoddard says:
June 25, 2010 at 7:07 pm
2 cents worth says that Kim is thinking “Can America really be that stupid?”
stevengoddard,
Excellent – thank you. I did ask the question confirming what units these were in, as it was not on the chart. See: very simple to answer. 🙂