by Steven Goddard
Looking at the June 14 satellite photo above, you see the view which the Sun sees of the North Pole.
Well not exactly, because the elevation of the Sun at its peak (mid-June) is actually fairly low in the sky. At the Pole, it is only 23.5º above the horizon. The video below shows what the earth would look like now, viewed from perpendicular to the plane of the ecliptic. Note that the region north of 66.5º is in perpetual light. The image of the Sun is from the days when it used to have sunspots.
Now, looking at the satellite photo again, we see three different shades of white. Snow is the brightest white (highest albedo) and can be seen in Greenland. Clouds are next brightest white, and at least partially cover almost the entire Arctic. In a few locations, you can see dirty white sea ice peeking out through the clouds.
We often hear that sea ice controls Arctic albedo. There is some truth to this statement, but the real story is that the albedo of clouds actually controls the area of sea ice. When it is cloudy, little melting occurs. When it is sunny, the ice is more prone to melt.
Consider this chart from the University of Alaska.
They forecast the breakup of sea ice based on the total amount of sunshine received. When accumulated sunshine reaches 700 MJ/m², the ice breaks up. In a cloudy year (like 2009) this occurs later. In a sunny year (like 2007) it occurs earlier. 2010 is right in the middle. On a cloudy day, most of the sunshine reflects back into space from the top of the white clouds. That is why we see the bright white clouds in the satellite image.
The real key to Arctic albedo, and melt – is clouds. Can climate models effectively forecast cloudiness? Short answer – no. Clouds are one of the Achilles Heels of climate models. So next time you hear about a climate model forecasting an ice free Arctic, ask if they have the cloud problem under control.
It is cloudy at Santa’s Workshop right now.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/webphotos/noaa2.jpg
Mr. Goddard,
top class! An awsome post. Simple, obvious (once seen), damn near irrefutable and a fine question at the end.
Thanks
This planets climate will never be understood until ALL factors are taken into account. No one storm or weather anaomaly is the same due to the planetary changes constantly in effect that will change the outcomes. The slowing of the planet, distance from the sun, planetary gas changes in pressure, gravitational changes, etc.
Planetary mechanics has an effect with rotation, timeframes and reflection of solar energy, angles of solar penetration, atmospheric distruptions(moon), etc.
It’s hot in the Arctic 🙂
Just look at those +15ºC for the internal temperature!
Ecotretas
Do they have a current air temp at this location?
Speaking of clouds just shift all the clouds 1000 miles equatorward or poleward in both hemispheres via more negative or positive Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the air and there will be found all the albedo change you need to significantly alter shortwave input to the oceans, especially in the southern hemisphere.
The change in angle of incidence onto the clouds will make all the difference and most likely will make a much bigger difference than that involved in Svensmark’s ideas or the issue of polar ice quantities.
Anything man-made needs to be painted bright white to avoid increased AGW. That’s the only way.
“What the sun used to look like when it had sunspots…”
Lol, Steve Goddard, there are 32 Sunspots according to the World Climate Widget!
-Snowlover123
Arctic temperature during the last 150 years or so appear to be closely correlated to the average geomagnetic field (GMF) in the area.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC1.htm
@Pascvaks:
Indeed, we can all be White Hats …
“The image of the Sun is from the days when it used to have sunspots.”
Haha, clearly we live in interesting times. Excellent article!
Snowlover123 says:
June 16, 2010 at 4:23 am
“What the sun used to look like when it had sunspots…”
>Lol, Steve Goddard, there are 32 Sunspots according to the World Climate Widget!<
According to mine today (Jun 16 2010) it is Null.
Snowlover123 says:
June 16, 2010 at 4:23 am
“What the sun used to look like when it had sunspots…”
Lol, Steve Goddard, there are 32 Sunspots according to the World Climate Widget!
That’s the “sunspot number,” not the “number of sunspots.” And the solar flux is only 72, which is barely above minimum.
Two links useful for this thread:
North Pole Environmental Observatory 2000-2010
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/index.html
Arctic theme page – North Pole Web Cam
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html
Simply put, and beautifully argued: the way science should be reported.
The sun is spotless today. Good timing.
Here are temperatures at a couple of North Pole Buoys
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/PAWS_atmos_recent.html
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/POPS13_atmos_recent.html
For WUWT reader from Nuuk, Vestgronland, Greenland
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC10.htm
Steve,
A natural process of planetary cooling is distance from the sun.
Solar rays concentration disperses more as the further away from the sun you get.
Due to the sun’s rotation, there is no gaps in the solar dispersment that we feel BUT it is less concentrated with energy.
Example: 10 molecules of energy hit you right now. Move away and 8 molecules, move further and 6 molecules, etc.
NOW, add our planetary rotation.
I’m telling ya Steve, rotation is the most understudied area with the most importance to understanding the mechanics of climate.
Snap!
“Can climate models effectively forecast cloudiness? Short answer – no. Clouds are one of the Achilles Heels of climate models.”
I know some commentors here have already seen this Freeman Dyson video on climate models. But for those who haven’t:
@Pascvaks
I’ve got a nice big white SUV, am I helping?
Mars Today?
Looking at the temps from the North Pole Buoys: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/POPS13_atmos_recent.html
it appears there is a temperature error for the June 13 1000z and 1100z readings:
0900z -0.8c 1013.8mb
1000z +0.7c 1013.9mb
1100z +2.0c 1014.1mb
1200z -0.8c 1014.2mb
1300z -1.4c 1014.2mb
I don’t see much of an air pressure change to cause any weather fronts to generate the 2 hour increase in temperature above the trend of the rest of the days values????
Owen
Excellent post, Mr Goddard!
Interesting how, at least visually, the Greenland icecap is much more reflective than the sea-ice, etc. Perhaps its higher elevation lifts the reflecting surface above much of the obscuring atmosphere.