Over at Climate Audit Steve McIntyre has started a new series on the “the trick.” To this day the trick is still largely misunderstood by nearly everyone discussing it, except Steve and a few of his readers. The trick deniers, are back at it using some old stupid pet tricks –moving the pea under the thimble. They clearly do not have a command of the mathematical operations underlying the trick or a command of all the versions of the trick. As Steve writes:
“All too often writers like Morgan Goodwin at desmog here or Brian Angliss at S& R here think that tricks are a “good way to solve a problem” (as per Gavin Schmidt at realclimate.)
In a recent post, Angliss moves the pea under the thimble, using an IPCC diagram to supposedly rebut a criticism of Jones’ trick email (about the WMO 1999 diagram), and then, after this sleight-of-hand, accuses me of making claims “not supported by the published record” – relying on this trick to supposedly justify his claim. Desmogblog, without doing any due diligence of their own to determine whether Angliss’ claims are valid, spreads this disinformation.” Read the rest of Steve here.
Recently, Angliss contacted me to ask me questions about the climategate mails and whether or not I thought they were being taken in context. I’ll excerpt a bit of our discussion to illustrate his ability to question his own bias:
Angliss:….. In his testimony before the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee, Phil Jones estimated that he had sent about 1.5 million emails over the period covered in the published CRU emails. That compares to approximately 200 emails that were from Jones in the published emails (via a quick search at eastangliaemails.com). Do you think that not having access to those other emails limits what we can say about the context of the published emails, and why or why not?
Mosher: “From 1996 to 2009 is say 13 years. 1,500,000, mails is what 115K mails per year. 365 days a year so 316 mails a day or about 13 mails per hour 24 hours a day. Wilt Chamberlain claims to have had sex with 20,000 women. I regard both claims with the some skepticism. Who knows perhaps Jones does have a mighty pen.”
Angliss: “Even if we assume that Jones’ email estimate is an exaggeration, even 1100 emails represents a very small percentage of the total email output of CRU over the past 20 years. Does it bother you that to date we don’t know who edited the emails, why they did it, and what criteria they used to choose between what emails they published and what emails they deleted?”
People should watch this tactic closely. Jones makes a claim. Angliss, unthinkingly, not pausing two seconds to do a back of the envelope check, proceeds on the assumption that Jones is telling the truth. That’s his bias. When his source is challenged, rather than rethink his assessment of Jones, he reaffirms his bias and the storyline that some person selected and edited the mails. There is strong evidence, as I argued in our book, that indicates there was little human intervention in the selection of the texts. That the selection was done algorithmically. But that doesn’t fit the story line of an evil hacker who cherry picked the worst mails. Angliss cannot see how Jones exaggeration is relevant. He cannot see that Jones is a serial hyperbolist. We may never know who picked the mails or how they were selected. But we can watch the things Angliss chooses to discuss and which things get ignored.
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Angliss also seems to wildly miss the point that if Dr. Jones is to believed about the volume of his e-mails, that it is little wonder his ‘work product’ is so shoddy. Apparently, by his own testimony, the doctor did little else besides sit at his desk playing with his e-mail application.
Perhaps Dr Jones used the same “adjustments” to his email count as he did to his temperature records.
Can’t we please change the topic?
Who or what is a Brian Angliss? Is he a scholar or a rogue? He can’t do math, so that rules out scholar. Honest to Pete, who cares what some math-challenged moron thinks about anything, much less issues of science?
It’s over, Brian. Climategate really happened, your boyos lied, they’ve been lying and cheating for years, global warming is a hoax, and warmer is better anyway. Hoax off. Find something useful to do, like learning how to add and subtract.
PS – Steve, you are under no obligation to respond to idiot questions from a hoax-n-gouger. The issue is not Jonesy’s emails, it’s the years of nefarious manipulation of the data and of climate science itself to derive patently false conclusions and to enflame commie-fascist-induced hysteria. The Goebbels ref above fits like a glove, and if the glove fits, we must convict. You don’t need a weatherman to see which way the wind blows.
John Blake says:June 13, 2010 at 7:36 am
In 1993 Islam’s supreme doctrinal authority Sheikh Abdel-aziz ibn Ba’az, Grand Mufti of Mecca and Medina, issued a binding edict (fatwa) declaring that the world is flat
. . . (Carl Sagan, “The Demon Haunted World”, p. 325; Ballantine, 1996).
Blinkered climate hysterics deserve no more credibility than Sheikh ibn Ba’az. (Note, by the way, that Sagan’s exhaustive index makes no reference whatever to this passage. Mecca and Medina’s Religion of Peace has a way of resolving such disputes with bloodthirsty violence.) To True Believers of any stripe, Reality is quite beside the point.
Despite his popular TV persona, Sagan shared the Sheikh’s attitude toward Christianity. This was quite evident in his movie “Contact,” which absurdly caricatured Christians as Luddites, and in his Cosmos TV series, specifically the episode on the Library at Alexandria. I’m uncertain whether his prejudice extended toward Judaism, Islam, or religion in general, though it well might.
Religion of any sort is not Popper falsifiable and thus not scientific. It is ironic that Sagan, and more recent scientists, allow personal prejudices to taint their scientific credibility by continuing to rant against it.
Who collected the emails, and how, is of paramount importance. That’s because some are claiming the emails were collected as part of an effort to respond to a Freedom of Information request.
If you assume the emails were collected as part of an FOI request, that allows you to pretend that the UEA has complied with FOI, though in a roundabout way. Quite clever, that, and it’s worked.
To this day, people continue to overlook the fact that the UEA has still not responded to FOI requests. Over in the USA, NASA et al. continue stonewalling FOI requests.
I wonder of anyone has seen this post where the entire concept of the IPCC consensus is exploded by none other than CRU!
http://thegwpf.org/ipcc-news/1092-the-ipcc-consensus-was-phoney-says-mike-hulme.html
Just wanted to give a big shout out to DePropaganda blog and Brian for keeping my father’s name in the limelight. Smarter people recognize the need for them to smear my father in any way possible. The not-so-smart ones are trying even harder now to debase him. Squirming like a hooked fish. The zombie dance of those who are wrong and in their heart of hearts know they are wrong. They have to get outside more.
Look ’em square in the eye, Steve M. Do not give them any quarter. You are dealing with professionals ( PR guys, spin doctors, propagandists). Sneaky and underhanded. Cowards always try for the sucker punch, but are too spineless to confront you on even footing.
Mike McMillan says:
June 13, 2010 at 10:55 am : Response: Mike, I am a non-believer, yet I found the movie Contact raises the question of deity in a positive light and actually gave me pause to think further on the subject. Perhaps from your point of view, the presentation of religion did not go far enough. Had this been done, I think I would have found the subject off-putting. I react the same way when I am told that AGW “causes” every problem mankind has to deal with. We can discuss religion, but do not try to force feed it to me ( not saying that you in paticular are trying to do this). Give me the information and I will decide for myself. Cheers.
Mike McMillan says:
June 13, 2010 at 10:55 am,
Mike I agree! I am unclear why some scientists get so righteous and need to rail against religion, it’s like going on a vendetta against one of the arts. Lets pick Picasso and rant about how his art was not valid etc. etc., how petty can these scientists on an anti-religious crusade get ? When asked, Richard Feynman managed to state his perspective on religion clearly without a need to denigrate some one elses art/religion.
Dennis Wingo, that is an interesting article. Why is this only coming out now? Why is Hulme only now coming out with that little choice piece of information (not that it’s any real surprise to any one here, but it’s surprising to find it in reputable “peer reviewed” type of journal).
1.5 million emails seems easy if you were sending a lot of carbon copies to a long list of recipients.
Defenses of the hockey stick that I’ve seen ignore the criticism that using data from trees known to give falsely low temperatures to prove temperatures were low, is bad science, regardless if the correct result is obtained. And hiding it by covering it with thermometer temps is even worse.
Brian Angliss,
You continue to miss the point. You wrote: “There are plenty of possible reasons to be skeptical of Jones’ opinions and statements, but rhetorical exaggeration is not one of them.”
Jones is a serial hyperbolist. The next example I’ll ask you to research is his claim that the law required him to spend 18 hours on every FOIA request.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7017905.ece
In an article claiming death threats Jones is quoted :
“Jones insists that is not the way it was, but concedes it was the way it may have looked. He now accepts that he did not treat the FoI requests as seriously as he should have done. “I regret that I did not deal with them in the right way,” he told The Sunday Times. “In a way, I misjudged the situation.”
But he pleads provocation. Last year in July alone the unit received 60 FoI requests from across the world. With a staff of only 13 to cope with them, the demands were accumulating faster than they could be dealt with. “According to the rules,” says Jones, “you have to do 18 hours’ work on each one before you’re allowed to turn it down.” It meant that the scientists would have had a lot of their time diverted from research.”
So Brian, facts for you to investigate.
1. The FOIA that Jones did not handled properly according to the ICO was david hollands FOI. What is the date of that FOI? surely you know. ( oh hell I’ll tell you below, your so lazy you’d never look)
2. The 60 or so FOIA that “provoked” Jones to mishandle the holland FOI were sent
in 2009.
3. can a provocation occur AFTER the incident. That is, which came first
A. the mishandling of the Holland FOI
B. the 60 FOI?
Surely you can do math. Does jones have a provocation wayback machine?
4. Is it true that the rules require Jones to spend at least 18 hours on FOI BEFORE
rejecting it? or did Jones hyperbolize when he said that the rules REQUIRE him to spend 18 hours on a request BEFORE rejecting it?
start here
http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/ukpga_20000036_en_2#pt1-pb1-l1g13
Section 1(1) does not oblige a public authority to comply with a request for information if the authority estimates that the cost of complying with the request would exceed the appropriate limi
What about 60 requests from a group of people? see section 4. Is that 18 hours per request as some have allegded or do the rules allow them to COMBINE the requests into one request.
Since I think you are a lazy journalist and lazy thinker who couldnt fact check whether the sun came up today, I will point you to the rule in question.
http://www.ico.gov.uk/upload/documents/library/freedom_of_information/detailed_specialist_guides/fees_regulations_guidance_v2.pdf
…”Where a reasonable estimate has been made that the appropriate limit would
be exceeded, there is no requirement for a public authority to undertake work
up to the limit. ”
Now, When Phil Jones argues that his Mishandling of the FOIA ( the ICO had a prima facia case that CRU had violated Hollands right ) was provoked by the incident of 60 FOIA… I ask you.
1. The holland FOIA occurred in 2008.
2. The 60 FOIA occurred in 2009.
How does an event in 2009 provoke an action in 2008. ? teleconnections?
Then. The law states that CRU may deny a request if they ESTIMATE it will take more than 18 hours. I know. I got a denial letter like that in 2009. Further, Jones complied with those 60 FOIA requests by treating them as one request. which the law permits. His response was a 1000 word essay. So, did Jones lie when he said that the law required him to perform 18 hours of work on these 60 requests before denying them?
Hint, Palmer does the denial letters. Hint Palmer starts his process by asking for an estimate or in the case of Holland, Palmer started the process by saying he was going to deny the request and use cost of compliance as an excuse.
Jones of course knew this. Jones knew that he did not have to do one bit of work if he estimated it would take more than 18 hours. Palmer writing to Jones
“On Tue, May 27, 2008 6:30 pm, Palmer Dave Mr (LIB) wrote:
> Gents,
> Please note the response received today from Mr. Holland. Could you
> provide input as to his additional questions 1, and 2, and check with
> Mr. Ammann in question 3 as to whether he believes his correspondence
> with us to be confidential?
>
> Although I fear/anticipate the response, I believe that I should inform
> the requester that his request will be over the appropriate limit and
> ask him to limit it – the ICO Guidance states:
>
> 12. If an authority estimates that complying with a request will exceed
> the cost limit, can advice and assistance be offered with a view to the
> applicant refocusing the request?”
in fact in the Holland case, Palmer made a determination or estimate without doing any work it appears. Probably a case there that his estimate was not “reasonable” under the guidelines. But thats a seperate matter.
5. Was the data requested ( confidentiality agreements) already public as the article claims.
Further, you said some untrue things with regard to McIntyre and me. Did you read all the posts and the book before your made your comments? If it concerns you that ALL the mails were not read when only some of them are available, then how can you write about McIntyre without first reading everything that is publically available. I find odd that you would be concerned about mails we could not read, while you yourself ignore a whole corpus that you could read. That’s your bias.
Phil Jones: confessed spammer extraordinaire?
I’m convinced the emails and code in the “leaked” folder were compiled by the guilty parties in the climategate scandal: namely principals at CRU and their colleagues, responding to a directive, perhaps from Mr. Jones himself, to put together a collection of stuff to be deleted for protection from an FOIA request. Thus the name attached to the folder of materials.
The algorithm is simply this: each person involved provided copies of emails, etc that they thought were somehow incriminating or could be “misconstrued” as such. They were to delete these from their personal archives. The folder was also for their mutual reference so that each could check what others had flagged as incriminating so they could delete copies on their own hard drives. Presumably the folder was kept on a server they could all access, with some password protocol (or they trusted that it would be impossible for anyone else to guess where to look, and didn’t bother with further security measures).
Perhaps another reason for the compilation was so that the information in them not be lost in case it was needed later. At some point everyone was to have deleted their copies of files, and the folder itself would be archived, perhaps on a DVD in someone’s lock box. I realise this sounds like a conspiracy theory, but consider this: in their “defense” of these emails and code, has the CRU gang ever produced an “original” of one of these emails and said, “no, look, see this paragraph that was maliciously deleted?” Perhaps they don’t exist anymore. They don’t deny the genuineness of the emails, but they also don’t contest them with specifics or provide “proper context” — they simply wildly charge that they can’t be understood without that context. Myself, I can’t see the forest for the red flags, and regard this as another example of the pea being moved around under the thimbles. If there is an ameliorating context in the email record, then PRODUCE it, for heavens’ sake. Else I think they doth protest too much.
Steve Mosher – and I disputed the FOI part of any of this where exactly? I’ve addressed specific points you made in your interview with me that don’t hold water for one reason or another. My not mentioning them means that I either didn’t have a problem with them (as in the case of FOI, especially since the House of Commons report found that FOI was the single biggest issue discovered in the emails), I agreed with your interpretation, I couldn’t find sufficient support one way or another, or I made an editorial decision not to post my conclusions at this time.
I have already investigated the 18 hour claim and found that any office receiving notifications may reject them if taking more than 18 hours is required. Yes, they may be consolidated, but they may also be rejected as “vexatious.” It’s reasonable to think that, given the CRU’s experience, the 60 requests in July made at the behest of Steve McIntyre and that were obviously in alphabetical order and from the same source could have been rejected as “vexatious” at the time. I’m not saying it was right, but that it would certainly make sense.
What concerns me is not that all several million suspected emails were read, but that you didn’t confirm any of your conclusions with the emails’ authors before publication. Furthermore, what concerns me is that you’ve rejected the conclusions of the three completed inquiries to date, even though they did exactly what you told me they needed to do – sit down with Jones et al and ask a few simple questions – and their conclusions appear to be 180 degrees out of phase from your own.
Let’s suppose Jones wrote 750,000 emails in those 13 years. It adds up to 57,692 email/year or 158 emails a day. As a bureaucrat, he worked 8 hours -9:00 am -5:00 pm- so he wrote 19 email every hour. The time employed to open the mail program, write an email of ten lines, connect to the internet and send it, waiting to see the email go out, is about three minutes.
158 emails a day by 3 minutes = 474 minutes, that equals 7.9 hours.
He must have taken two coffee breaks a day (did he ever had lunch?) of 5 minutes each. So he never actually worked on his duty. He spent his entire working time sending emails. The people should claim he must return his salary with 8.3% compound interest.
If he claims 1,500,000 emails, then he had two or three secretaries doing it for him, 8 hours a day. More salaries to be returned by Jones.
For some reason, the picture in this article reminds me of one of the Russian tactics that the Germans found most despicable during the desperate days of World War II — the use of sacrificial anti-tank bomb carrying dogs.
Of course, and easy way to settle the question would be to have Prof. Jones’ entire email archive posted to the net. If there is nothing to hide….
First off, I’ve done some research on that comment so often attributed to Goebbels and there is not enough evidece to really give it to him. I reasearched for a school paper which I’m turning into a book. Some of us education and science like to get our facts straight before quoting.
Secondly, I thank Mr. Mosher for his book with his co writer. I have been reading it for 2 weeks and poring over it meticulously with what I’ve seen of the live email evidence at http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/. One of the original places the information was deposited at when it all broke.
I would only disagree with Mr. Mosher slightly in that I think far too many of us are aware of the tricks going on and that is why the readers of this site and CA are always so easily riled. We are tired of the garbage being pulled by the other side and the constant ad hominym attacks thrown our way when they can’t refute with reason they throw incendiary ad hominym bombs.
PS.. I am still looking forward to hearing back further from you on facebook, for permission to use snippets from your book.
Prof. Jones has been in science and education for years. From descriptions of him and his health probably longer than most in here have been alive.
Let’s give him his due, at one point he was a man of education. Which means that he put education, truth, dignity, honor, and passing on the truth to his students to be diseminated to others in the future.
Some where he and Michael Mann and Briffa and others went wrong.
I think we need to look to our own hearts and ask ourselves if the majority of us would have turned down the grants, the fame, and the continued money pouring in from the British government and the US Government. Remember that 1.8 trillion that the US has spent in less than 10 years on this subject?
I’m sorry that men of academia have been bribed by dirty politicians and they succumbed to the big grants and cushy offices.
What makes me angry is that they point at men like Mr. Watts, Christopher Monkton, and Mr. Bob Carter and sling accusations of taking bribes from Exxon and other big corporate think tanks. As if that makes the skeptic side any less valid. And lets remember the 1+ trillion dollar beam sticking out of their eyes as they point fingers.
This has gone way past he says, she said and your wrong and we;re not. When you figure the 1+ trillion spent by the US and all the money to be lost from Cap and Trade.
We need to stand united behind people like Mr. Watts, Carter, Monkton et al. not because I want to kiss up, not because I want something from them, but because the very future of our nations and our ability to carry out a career and eek out a living depend on it. Make no mistake about this. This is a battle versus evil for our very lives.
Brian Angliss: Jones was exaggerating and he knew it, if any of the House of Commons Science and Technology committee had been there other than to whitewash Jones they would have simply asked what the total FOI requests were on an annual basis. From when the FOIA came into being in January 2005 until December 2010 the CRU received 103 FOI requests:
6 in 2007
2 in 2008
58 in 2009 related to the David Holland 2008 request
28 after the Climategate leak
And 11 others throughout the year 2010.
As far as I’m aware they did not comply with any of them. They now know that all they have to do is stonewall for six months and they are beyond prosecution so I doubt we’ll see more openness there.
In case you’re not aware the information on the hidden decline is over on Climate Audit, but a synopsis for your benefit is that Mann didn’t put instrumental data into the graph, he used the instrumental data to smooth the graph and cut it off at 1960.
Jones on the other hand simply added the instrumental data, and didn’t tell anyone, which in any other science would be considered to be outrageous malfeasance, but in the “all’s fair in love and war” CAGW camp it’s just “taking things out of context”.
Still time will pass, fashionable assumptions about the climate will change, decent scientists will re-assert their control and these people will get what’s coming to them. They will join the Hall of Science Infamy.
Should have been “9 others”.
I still get a giggle reading the CRU letters and all the threatening that was going on and then the NOA scientists come out and say that it’s aweful that poeple made threats against alarmist scientist.
The depraved hypocracy that prevails amongst the CRU et al. is sickening