By Steve Goddard
The last piece of ice remaining in the Arctic
The death spiral continues, with Arctic ice extent and thickness nearly identical to what it was 10 years ago.
The graph above shows superimposed volume data (calculated from PIPS) for 2010, on top of the NSIDC extent data. Interesting to note that volume continued to increase for about a month after extent started to decline. This is because the Arctic Basin has remained below freezing, while the lower latitudes have been melting.
In the video of 2010 ice below, you can see how ice has been piling up to a depth of nearly five metres (red) on the windward side of Wrangel Island, the New Siberian Islands, and the Taymyr Peninsula.
Ice thickness in Barrow, AK seems to have reached it’s maximum this week, at about 4.3 metres feet.
University of Alaska – Barrow Ice Sensor
Temperatures in the Arctic interior have remained cold, and well below freezing. Not much opportunity for melt.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
You can see the Arctic temperature anomalies over the last 30 days in the video below:
The four major extent indices continue to diverge, with the next couple of weeks showing almost no year over year variability.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_2010.png
The modified NSIDC image below shows in red where ice has disappeared since early April.
The modified NSIDC image below shows in red where ice has disappeared in the last week.
The modified NSIDC image below shows a comparison between 2010 and 2007. Areas in green have more ice than 2007. Areas in red have less ice than 2007.
The modified NSIDC image below shows in red areas of ice deficiency relative to the 30 year mean, with areas of excess shown in green. The cold Pacific side has excess ice, while the warmer Atlantic side has a deficiency..
This corresponds quite closely with sea surface temperature anomalies seen below.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
The image below from September 15, 2007 is the one which most interests me this week. After the big “melt” of 2007, it was widely reported that researchers expected the ice to be gone by 2013, and that “in the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly.”
How is five metre thick ice supposed to “just melt away quite suddenly?”
————————————————————————————-
From the linear predictions department :
Temperatures in Colorado have warmed up 20 degrees in the last two weeks. If that trend continues, it will become hot enough to boil water before Christmas. And the Arctic will be ice free by 2013.
Sources:
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_sealevel/brw2010/BRW_MBS10_overview_complete.png
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_sealevel/brw2010/BRW_MBS10_overview_complete.png
And finally, GLOBAL sea ice has returned to normal:
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And the advert above is for an edition of the Ice Road Truckers on the History chanel.
The edges can diminish as a result of wind and water currents. If it is getting warmer, how can the ice become thicker?
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
MODERATOR:
Please make two changes. Title should be :
WUWT Arctic Sea Ice News #7
it is missing an S
and the last word in this sentence should be “feet” rather than “metres”
“Ice thickness in Barrow, AK seems to have reached it’s maximum this week, at about 4.3 metres.”
Antarctic Sea Ice seems to not have gotten the memo on Earth’s rapidly alarming warming trend:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
The graph seems to show 4.3 feet, not meters, on the right scale. The left scale, in meters, shows about 1.3.
REPLY: fixed thanks – A
Its not nice to mock the afflicted….
Judging from the coastline floods that are being experienced world-wide (aren’t they?) the continuing melt is wreaking havoc with civilization.
Perhaps some kindly physicist will calculate the time it would take for all the sea-ice to melt if the temperature within the arctic circle made it to 25C and stayed there indefinitely. Might be an interesting exercise….
Anthony…. Ice news , of a different nature, from the other end of the globe.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704655004575114010457906340.html?mod=wsj_india_main
Man-made global warming is melting in a sea of facts & evidence proving AGW is a hoax.
Arctic sea ice extent is exhibit # 1
The North-West Passage is not about to be opened for business!
From the looks of the Cyrosphere Today Global Sea Ice Area Mean and this one:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/seaice.anomaly.Ant_arctic.jpg
the overlay of the Southern & Northern Sea Ice Anomalies…
The current trend is for the two to converge once again… at zero anomaly in the year 2023.
By 2036, they will be freaking out over the loss of the Antarctic Sea Ice leading up to the melting of Antarctica.
I’m roughly estimating a period of 26 years for the cycle to repeat itself, from existing data.
This is all brilliant stuff.
The big problem being that WE can see the nonsense propagated about polar ice by those who, for their own reasons, dishonestly tell only half the true story.
Of greater importance, however, is how this message may be forcefully propagated to government, and the mainstream media so that Joe Public gets the truth of the full picture, in a way that he can make an informed decision as to what to believe.
I, personally, am truly gutted that the powers that be push on with their ideology regardless, and the press (who should by now be taking more than a passing interest) are allowing the facts to go washing over their heads without latching on to the scam built around this chicanery. Surely there is a duty somewhere, to make this stuff headline news?
Here’s a theory. All the soot from Asia deposited in the Arctic caused more melting. The reduced albedo caused the Arctic to warm. The warmer Arctic reduced the flow of heat from the tropics. The net … a slight warming of the globe.
Therefore, I claim AGW is entirely China and other overly polluting countries fault and expect to be paid millions for my suffering. Where do I pick up my check?
And as for those who question my theory, you are clearly just deniers as the science is now settled because I said it was. QED.
I don’t see anything unusual going on in any graph or map. Everything is within normal ranges.
Is that blue line in the ocean on the equator west of South America a La Niña?
http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/sst_anom.gif?w=510&h=382
If so that is bad news for the global warming crowd. La Niña will make the cold anomaly by Alaska remain and melt there will be slower than usual.
I don’t see this below 2007 extent staying much longer. Especially since the drop below the 2007 extent line is not from melt.
Greens are melting down, in the whole world, too. Watch out! the screw is turning around:
http://blogs.miaminewtimes.com/riptide/2010/05/no_green_party_twitter-driven.php
Anomalies only to be found in AGWrs. minds
At first glance I sensed the polar bear was on top of a frost covered periscope, a bit flattened by coming up from under ice too thick.
Do you know the source of that photo? Has it been used by anyone in a manner similar to Gore’s (and others) use of the photo by Amanda Byrd?
http://www.whoi.edu/beaufortgyre/dispatch2004/dispatch02.html
I am not sure why Anthony and Steve are labouring this.
It is a wait until September job.
I know the ice is poster child for the thermogedon loons along with the growing polar bear population and baby penguins, ( seal and killer whale food as I call them ), unless you are trying to bait the whole raft of the thermogedonists out of the woodwork, why bother?
If the intention is to bait them then, “as you were”, their knickers are knotted up and then some.
It looks like Joe Bastardi is forecasting that 2011 and 2012 will make new records for ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere. But I may be misunderstanding his wording:
….We are in a post nino retreat in the northern hemisphere, which will reverse this fall ( in relation to averages) and a peak in N hemispheric SUMMER ice will occur in 2011 and 2012….
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather
Richard M
Dr. Hansen also believed in 2004 that soot was a primary factor in Arctic warming.
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2004/2004_Hansen_Nazarenko.pdf
Given the little error of using metres instead of feet it is obviously time for America to ditch the imperial – feet, Farenheit and month/day/year etc and go with the rest of the world in metric – metres, celsius and day/month/year (a logical sequence).
Sorry could not resist a little dig.
Explanation from Joe Bastardi for his Arctic ice forecast:
6:01 video
http://www.accuweather.com/video/89017432001/colder-pdo-thickening-ice.asp?channel=vblog_bastardi
The focus on arctic ice is a debate mistake of the first order. Since it’s a secondary line of evidence for AGW, there is nothing much to be gained in questioning it and being right, and everything to lose in questioning it and being wrong.
Peter Foster says:
May 31, 2010 at 10:34 am
Given the little error of using metres instead of feet it is obviously time for America to ditch the imperial – feet, Farenheit and month/day/year etc and go with the rest of the world in metric – metres, celsius and day/month/year (a logical sequence).
Sorry could not resist a little dig.
Don’t you know that the internationalizing of the metric system, followed by the ISO (International Standards Organization) it is part of the Global Governance Agenda?
BTW, the english system it is not abstract but natural?. Can you imagine a circle of 400 degrees? That is the international circle, it does not correspond with observable reality. It was invented by the French Revolution in its effort to de-sacralize reality, it was part of a wider secularizing project, to deny human ethics and moral principles. The STATE should replace GOD.
How much warming can soot cause when it’s buried under another meter of fresh ice?