There’s been a lot of worry and speculation over what will happen if a hurricane and the gulf oil spill collide. In response, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has prepared a document answering some of the questions. There’s of course, a lot of uncertainty too.
What will happen to a hurricane that runs through this oil slick?
• Most hurricanes span an enormous area of the ocean (200-300 miles) — far wider than the current size of the spill.
• If the slick remains small in comparison to a typical hurricane’s general environment and size, the anticipated impact on the hurricane would be minimal.
• The oil is not expected to appreciably affect either the intensity or the track of a fully developed tropical storm or hurricane.
• The oil slick would have little effect on the storm surge or near-shore wave heights.
What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in the Gulf?
• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather” the oil which can help accelerate the biodegradation process.
• The high winds may distribute oil over a wider area, but it is difficult to model exactly where the oil may be transported.
• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the track of the hurricane.
• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm.
• A hurricane’s winds rotate counter-clockwise.
Thus, in VERY GENERAL TERMS:
- A hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick could drive oil to the coast.
- A hurricane passing to the east of the slick could drive the oil away from the coast.
- However, the details of the evolution of the storm, the track, the wind speed, the size, the forward motion and the intensity are all unknowns at this point and may alter this general statement.
Will the oil slick help or hurt a storm from developing in the Gulf?
• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical storms and hurricanes. Over relatively calm water (such as for a developing tropical depression or disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not allowing contact of the water to the air.
• With less evaporation one might assume there would be less moisture available to fuel the hurricane and thus reduce its strength.
• However, except for immediately near the source, the slick is very patchy. At moderate wind speeds, such as those found in approaching tropical storms and hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as is the case with the current slick (except in very limited areas near the well) would likely break into pools on the surface or mix as drops in the upper layers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks, however, could re-coalesce at the surface after\ the storm passes.)
• This would allow much of the water to remain in touch with the overlying air and greatly reduce any effect the oil may have on evaporation.
• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a significant impact on the hurricane.
Will the hurricane pull up the oil that is below the surface of the Gulf?
• All of the sampling to date shows that except near the leaking well, the subsurface dispersed oil is in parts per million levels or less. The hurricane will mix the waters of the Gulf and disperse the oil even further. Have we had experience in the past with hurricanes and oil spills?
• Yes, but our experience has been primarily with oil spills that occurred because of the storm, not from an existing oil slick and an ongoing release of oil from the seafloor.
• The experience from hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) was that oil released during the storms became very widely dispersed.
• Dozens of significant spills and hundreds of smaller spills occurred from offshore facilities, shoreside facilities, vessel sinkings, etc.
Will there be oil in the rain related to a hurricane?
• No. Hurricanes draw water vapor from a large area, much larger than the area covered by oil, and rain is produced in clouds circulating the hurricane.
Learn more about NOAA’s response to the BP oil spill at http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/
deepwaterhorizon.
Document available in PDF form here.
developing in the Gulf?
• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical
storms and hurricanes. Over relatively calm water
(such as for a developing tropical depression or
disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress
evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not
allowing contact of the water to the air.
• With less evaporation one might assume there
would be less moisture available to fuel the
hurricane and thus reduce its strength.
• However, except for immediately near the source,
the slick is very patchy. At moderate wind speeds,
such as those found in approaching tropical
storms and hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as
is the case with the current slick (except in very
limited areas near the well) would likely break into
pools on the surface or mix as drops in the upper
layers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks,
however, could re-coalesce at the surface after the
storm passes.)
• This would allow much of the water to remain in
touch with the overlying air and greatly reduce
any effect the oil may have on evaporation.
• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a
significant impact on the hurricane.
@ur momisugly Brute…I LOVE your idea!!!!! Have no clue if it’s even remotely feasible, but the optimistic thinking behind it is commendable.
I find it stunningly stupid that anyone could even imagine that the oil slick might effect the path or intensity of a hurricane. It says something about how willing we have become to over estimate our impact upon nature. Next well have the USGS issuing an FAQ on the Deep Horizon’s effect on regional plate tectonics.
That said, there was a time, (the early 1960’s) when swimmers at Galveston didn’t know what tar balls were and the water was often clear enough to see little fish pecking at your feet in waist deep water. I gather those days are long gone.
Nothing, or very little, should have happened since the government was supposed to burn the oil on the water in the vicinity of the leak. But that government plan was not followed by the government. Instead lawyers were sent(for some reason), and a S.W.A.T. team(for some reason). And Bush was blamed.
So now it’s all FUBAR.
Here’s a one-two punch.
Three million pounds of lead down the hole should do the trick for the pressure.
Then use the heavy mud as the final uppercut! :-\
Now, how they could ever get it down the hole is entirely another matter.
Maybe the oil on the water will reduce the coefficient of friction between any hurricane winds and the water, making the hurricane travel much faster with increased wind speed.
Or maybe not.
Brute are you sure your an engineer?
i mean really, if your an engineer wouldnt you look at a half glass of water and say the glass was twice as big as it needs to be?
as in most things theres reality and reality on paper.
in reality on paper, you could potentially see a difference in the behavior of a hurricane due to the presence oil in the surrounding water.
in reality, who cares? theres a hurricane coming!
Kate, It is a dumb idea..
Look and see that the Mississippi River enters the “oil storage area”.
Look and see how deep the ocean is at the leakage site.
stevengoddard says:
May 30, 2010 at 6:06 pm
Every time I have ever gone swimming in Galveston, I have come out covered with oil. It is part of the experience.
——————–
Stop smearing yourself with that greasy suntan lotion.
Brute says:
May 30, 2010 at 5:23 pm
I’ve had a brilliant solution to this oil well problem…………..
Build a dike from Florida to South Ameria.
=====================================
Damn funny.
Only problem is it blocks the energy needed for the Gulf Stream.
The Gulf Stream is undeniably one of the most important energy transports on the planet.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA (dependent upon the Gulf Stream)
Brute says:
May 30, 2010 at 7:51 pm
“I try to think outside of the box………”
Judging by your idea of a dike, I’m guessing that box is an 8 x 4 with padded walls?
It’s seems pretty well proved that oil and accompanying gas is not from dead dinosaurs and buried plants. It was always here seeping from depths below and always will, whether we use it or not. Hurricanes have been here since this planet started to spin and the sun shine and they will be here till the end.
They’re buddies, playmates, and have frolicked on this globe for eons. So, I personally don’t feel they will have one bit of trouble this time around this summer, though Mr. Hurricane might say to Ms. Oilslick, have you put a bit of weight lately, you don’t look so thin and slim this season? 🙂
Now if we’re going to have an action, it might be a slap!
Brute: A few problems with your solution. For one, the energy required to pump out the water would make the oil among the most expensive ever produced.
Next problem: disposing of all the fish/sharks/mammals/crustaceans in the Gulf. Environmentalists would never allow that.
Another problem: several rivers empty into the Gulf – one of them fairly large by world standards, the Mississippi.
Not to mention the air pollution caused by millions of square miles of oil surface with wind blowing across it. The downwind communities will be holding their noses – and their breath. While they are cussing the idiots who did this to them.
Also must remember that the Mississippi River is a major waterway for barges, as is the intra-coastal canal. Ships don’t float very well in oil, and if they must do so, they must carry far less cargo.
We import an awful lot of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, so all the imports must be replaced with (as yet un-drilled) oil wells. That’s going to take a while, even if permits to drill were issued.
Obtaining international cooperation among all the impacted Central American and Caribbean nations, plus northern South American countries might present a problem.
I like the fact that you are thinking outside the box, though.
What oil does to droplet formation in clouds is something I’ve been wondering about. AFAIK a droplet in a cloud which forms on a CCN polluted with oil will more readily combine with another droplet: at a certain size the droplet falls out of the air column. In a hurricane the oil would then probably be recycled. So, does an oily ocean surface increase precipitation from a hurricane cloud?
http://www.infoniac.com/science/ground-based-bacteria-may-produce-rain.html is a paper about bacterial surfactant having the effect I expect from oil. The only stuff I can find about oily droplets is a poor quality film showing what happens when a falling drop makes new droplets on a polluted water surface. See: ‘The Impact of Organic Material on Cloud and Fog Processes’ WD Garrett 1978
“One of the issues I have seen posed is would an oil slick create a larger albedo on the surface, warming the water and therefore intensifying storms in the gulf? ”
That’s ‘lower albedo’. It’s very clear on the Gulf Modis pictures, a patch of darker blue visible to the naked eye. I can see the slick eating the clouds around it (oily droplets combining and falling out, or is it the warming effect of the albedo change on the water temps?), but that’s just me self-justifying my hypothesis.
“I find it stunningly stupid that anyone could even imagine that the oil slick might effect the path or intensity of a hurricane. It says something about how willing we have become to over estimate our impact upon nature.”
Thank goodness there’s someone here who has some facts — one does get sick of speculation. Have you any experimental data about the behaviour of polluted droplets, recycling of pollutants in high wind situations, expected temperature changes due to the albedo change of the sea surface affected by the slick? I’ve been searching for years for the former and the latter is very relevant here. A pointer to papers will be good enough, I can dig away for myself once I find them. I expect a big chunk of light oil would decisively alter the internal physics of even a major weather system, especially if recycling of the pollutant takes place — a catalyst-style effect.
It doesn’t seem obvious that oil will strengthen a hurricane — perhaps it would gut the central power system of a storm which would intensify and then fade. I’ve been puzzled about the track of one storm which was storming (sorry) across the Atlantic and then suddenly stopped, turned right and died. Upper winds, I hear you say. Maybe.
The more I read about cloud physics the more understanding I have of the wide uncertainy boundaries even the IPCC admits are there, but the less I understand the certainty of e.g. Martin Rees with his ‘science is settled’ mantra.
JF
How about the effect of pouring oil on troubled waters; a suppression of the waves, a smoothing of the surface, and so an overall reduction in sea-surface area, and so a reduction in heat transfer to the air, and so a lessening of hurricane strength?
Could anybody comment on the possibility of the ‘Garfunkel Effect’?
wayne says:
May 31, 2010 at 12:02 am
“It’s seems pretty well proved…”
Oops, how about “proven”.
Being conversant with the system that Piers Corbyn uses, it is highly likey he will be forecasting a Florida landfall this June. I will post the June cyclone forecast in as soon as it is available. Piers is off to a good start with cyclone forecasts this year:
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=199&c=1
SteveFromWinnipeg says:
…n reality on paper, you could potentially see a difference in the behavior of a hurricane due to the presence oil in the surrounding water.”
Certainly more of a difference than can be seen from a hundred ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, on paper or otherwise.
My concern would be the creation of an extra hot loop current. In 2004 and 2005 the worst storms became super-intensified because their path went directly over the very hot loop current. If the oil is entrained in the loop currents, that could affect the reflectivity of water and raise the temperature of the loop currents, if the path of a hurricane passes this super hot loop current, it could be a super-duper-looper of a hurricane.
Re stevengoddard says: Every time I have ever gone swimming in Galveston, I have come out covered with oil. It is part of the experience.
I try to swim in the ocean, rather than in those big white tanks along its edge.
To Brute:
Just one small question: how high are the Mississippi levees going to have to be under the new arrangements? Or do you simply reverse the flow of the river?
Brute,
With that much depth the components in the crude will naturally settle out a bit. Some will want the thick stuff at the bottom, and some undesired crud will settle on the bottom as well. So to make for easier pumping from there and to keep out the rocks and soil already at the bottom, we’ll have to lay down a plastic liner after pumping out the water.
We also don’t want countries getting OUR oil who haven’t done anything to deserve it, so we’ll have to stop the dike short of South America and curve it back upwards. Only as far as Mexico would likely be good enough, we already deal with Mexico for oil and it’ll make for a “North American” petroleum trading partnership.
We’ll also want to keep the lighter hydrocarbons from just evaporating away, so we’ll need a cover of plastic sheeting on top. Sheeting will work better than a hard cover, it’ll flex as the vapors expand and contract. To make it an acceptable green save-the-earth project, we’ll make it either white or perhaps a shiny silver like Mylar. That’ll send enough sunlight right back into space that the whole
global warmingclimate change problem will be taken care of, and we can burn our oil wealth guilt free.With those slight modifications, yup, good plan you got there.
I have recapped the 25th anniversary of the Niles, Ohio Tornado Outbreak on May 31st back in 1985
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com
Thanks,
Scott Sabol, WJW FOX 8
What’s going to happen? The next Katrinia is going to slide right past New Orleans and right up the Mississippi River and destroy St Louis, that’s what’s going to happen. Right?
I still think they can save us if the just take all that coal ash from all the coal fired power plants and sprinkle it all over the oil slick. That’ll sink it!
Wind (100 mph) had a positive effect on the Braer oil spill off Shetland … see here: http://shetlopedia.com/The_Braer_Disaster_%28Oil_Spill%29
Hmmmm, Hurricanes as pollution control devices….I like it!!!
Surely with the help of the IPCC we can steer one to the east side of the affected coastal areas and wash the oil out of the marshes and off the shores.