From The Declining Spring Snowcover Department
Experts tell us that spring snowcover has seen rapid declines in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 20 years. As of today, western US snowpack averaged by state is 137 percent of normal.
According to USDA Snotel measurements, Arizona is 446% of normal. California is 131% of normal. New Mexico is 184% of normal. Nevada is 126% of normal. Montana is 104% of normal.
Lake Powell water levels have risen four feet in the last month and are 56 feet higher than they were on this date in 2005.
http://lakepowell.water-data.com/graphingengine.php?graphing=1+back_days=150
Salt Lake City just had its latest spring snow on record. Mammoth is expecting a big Memorial Day snow storm.
The Obama administration (42% approval) forecasts heat and drought for the western US. Let’s see how they are doing!
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/wrcc/WaterTDeptWRCC.png
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/wrcc/WaterPNormWRCC.png
Apparently Arnie’s efforts to stop global warming have been successful.
Schwarzenegger has emerged as a national leader on global warming, the one whose name most frequently comes up in foreign capitals when international cooperation on reducing carbon emissions is discussed. Al Gore might have a Nobel Prize, but Schwarzenegger heads a state that, if it were a country, would rank among the 10 biggest economies in the world. Given the Bush administration’s unwillingness to seriously address the problem, Schwarzenegger’s initiatives to mandate hard emissions targets and set up carbon-trading schemes with other states and Canadian provinces make him this country’s most forward-thinking governor, and its greenest Republican.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
RR Kampen says on May 26, 2010 at 7:57 am said:
It’s not, but you had better demonstrate that the exponential behavior is there, and the original poster was talking about a linear trend for a data set that looks to be shorter in (or close to) duration than one quarter of the period of the cycles involved.
In addition, we know that CO2 levels were higher in the past. Indeed, quite a bit higher, and we did not see unlimited exponential behavior, so I think your exponential forcing term requires some change.
PeterB in Indianapolis said at 9:08 am
Everyone should remember, NO ONE experiences “climate”.
Well, actually we do. While technically “climate” is a made up condition found only in the mind of homo sapiens and their off-spring – computers, thereby making it impossible to “experience” as it doesn’t exist, it is by definition and in reality an average of weather. Therefore, when experiencing weather we ARE – experiencing climate.
Ed, from Portland,OR says:
May 26, 2010 at 7:25 am
I have been watching Lake Shasta . . .
Having not been in the Shasta area for about 30 years and seeking an update to my mental map of the region, I clicked on the link you provided, then the map links, but at a reasonable zoom to get the spatial context that Google link is useless. Try these coordinates in Google Earth (and turn of all the “stuff”):
40.760335, -122.372561
The mountain of like name is 45 miles (73 km) north and if you ask for Mount Shasta, CA via Google Earth you get the town 9 miles SW of the mountain.
R. de Haan says:
May 26, 2010 at 9:52 am . This really made me laugh:
So what’s left is an absolute minority of people who do believe AGW is real but they are such a small crowd, too small to explain any “consensus” on the subject
because, that “minority” is those in power….so you are done!
In the Cascade Mountains, the snowpack was less than normal this year – but it follows the pattern of strong correlation to El Nino. Cascades snowpack has been in a general upward trend since the mid-1970s See: http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/PNWSnow.htm
Amino Acids in Meteorites says: “…unfortunately I voted for Arnold! :-(”
Don’t feel bad. Lots of people, myself included, thought he was a Republican. He’s nothing but a Crypto-crat. And there are LOTS MORE of them out there. I could easily name several candidates who are running as Republicans but are actually left-left-wingers.
Opps, sorry. I should have said, “….by HUMAN definition it is an average of THE REALITY of weather. Therefore, when experiencing REAL weather we HUMANS ARE – experiencing the figment of our imaginations we call – climate.
California continues on a pace for below-“normal” temperatures for May, after having done the same for March and April. In Los Angeles, we are finally expected to have 75 degree (F) maximum daily temperatures for Memorial Day weekend (May 29, 30, and 31). http://www.calclim.dri.edu/
Meanwhile we are throwing another log on the fire. (but only on those days that our Air Quality Management District allows such frivolous burning.)
Looks like California is NOT contributing to 2010 being the “hottest year on record.” I suspect it has something to do with the California CO2 being a bit independent, anti-authoritarian, or just plain too drugged to care. Like, totally, dude!
Global Warming, Global Governance, Amazon forests for Carbon market…
Internationalize the Amazonia?
Below is an insightful response from the Brazilian Minister of Education, Chico
Buarque,. better known as a poet, composer and musician, in a visit to an US
university, Chico Buarque was asked about the possibility of ‘internationalise’
the Amazonia. His response highlights the complexity of the issue, the powers in
play, the threatened sovereignty of nations and the double standards applied
when deciding on these issues. It also reveals a humanist approach, honesty and
wisdom of a government minister such as Chico Buarque.
Internationalize the Amazonia?
Brazil’s Amazon basin, some 360 million hectares cleaved by the world’s largest
river, the Amazon, whose 80,000 kilometers in length is equal to the distance
between New York and Berlin, holds the planet’s greatest biodiversity reserve.
This unique, complex, exceptional ecosystem is a colossal Patrimony of
Humanity. Should it be internationalized?
Cristováo Buarque
During a debate in a US university over four years ago, a young US ecologist
asked Cristóvão Buarque, then the Workers Party governor of the Federal
District of Brasilia and currently Brazil’s minister of education, about his
ideas on internationalizing the Amazonia, so often described as the “lung of
humanity.” It was then and still is a theme strongly sustained in Washington’s
power circles. The young man said he hoped Buarque would answer with the vision
of a humanist rather than of a Brazilian. What he got was a response that was
both Brazilian and humanist.
“From a humanist perspective…”
“As a Brazilian I would always argue against internationalizing the Amazon Rain
Forest. Even though our government has not given this patrimony the care that
it deserves, it is still ours. As a humanist who fears the risks posed by the
environmental degradation the Amazon is suffering, I could imagine its
internationalization, just as I could imagine the internationalization of
everything else of importance to humanity.
If, from a humanist perspective, the Amazon must be internationalized, we should
also internationalize the world’s petroleum reserves. Oil is as important for
the well being of humanity as the Amazon is for our future. The owners of the
reserves, however, feel that they have the right to increase or decrease the
amount of oil production, as well as increase or lower the price per barrel.
The wealthy of the world feel they have the right to burn up this immense
patrimony of humanity.
In much the same way, the wealthy countries’ financial capital should be
internationalized. Since the Amazon Rain Forest is a reserve for all human
beings, no owner or country must be allowed to burn it up. The burning of the
Amazon is as serious a problem as the unemployment caused by the arbitrary
decisions made by global speculators. We cannot permit the use of financial
reserves to burn entire countries in the frenzy of speculation.
Before we internationalize the Amazon, I would like to see the
internationalization of all the world’s great museums. The Louvre should not
belong merely to France. The world’s museums are guardians of the most
beautiful pieces of art produced by the human genius. We cannot let this
cultural patrimony, like the natural patrimony of the Amazon, be manipulated
and destroyed by the whims of an owner or a country. A short time ago, a
Japanese millionaire decided to be buried with a painting by a great artist.
That painting should have been internationalized before this could happen.
The United Nations is holding the Millennium Summit parallel to this meeting,
but some Presidents had difficulties attending due to U.S. border-crossing
constraints. Because of this, I think that New York, as the headquarters of the
United Nations, should be internationalized. At least Manhattan should belong to
all humanity, as should Paris, Venice, Rome, London, Río de Janeiro, Brasilia,
Recife… Each city, with its unique beauty and its history, should belong to
the entire world, to all of humanity.
If the United States wants to internationalize the Amazon Rain Forest to
minimize the risk of leaving it in the hands of Brazilians, we should
internationalize its nuclear arsenals, if only because the country has already
demonstrated it is capable of using these arms, causing destruction thousands
of times greater than the deplorable burnings done in the forests of Brazil.
In their debates, the US presidential candidates have defended the idea of
internationalizing the world’s forest reserves in exchange for debt relief. We
should begin by using this debt to guarantee that each child in the world has
the opportunity to go to school. We should internationalize the children,
treating them, all of them, no matter their country of birth, as patrimony that
deserves to be cared for by the entire world. Even more than the Amazon deserves
to be cared for. When the world’s leaders begin to treat the poor children of
the world as a patrimony of humanity, they will not let them work when they
should be studying, die when they should be living.
As a humanist, I agree to defend the internationalization of the world. But, as
long as the world treats me as a Brazilian, I will fight for the Amazonia to
remain ours. Ours alone.”
http://naomicheckthisout.blogspot.com/
I don’t know about the California snowpack, but the annual weed & brush crop on my property is 151.327% of “normal” (average of years 1776-1492). That’s a wet winter in my book, whatever the “Duh-minator” says.
The western USA has been stuck in a series of incursions of Arctic air. Study the N.H. animations on here: http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/index.html
I am really concerned with the thaw and the floods.
On the other hand, I guess the temps could continue to decrease.
And we could all practice our Ice Climbing and Winter travel skills for the future north pole expeditions without wasting time, carbon or money on long distant travel.
Also, Does anyone know how that program to create ‘diesel like molecules’ with algae is coming along – are these 4 day old molecules still called ‘fossil’? The last I heard, the goal was to speed up the process – this might be more controllable that drilling in 1 to 2 miles of sea water.
Just flew, PHX to MSP yesterday.
Right over some of the prime “ski ranges” of the Rockies.
Took photos if anyone is interested.
OBVIOUS SNOW COVER OVER MANY MOUNTAINS!
This is Near 1st of June.
There are going to be some folks skiing into August…
I live in MN. I hate to think what this means about Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb/March here…
Max
Unfortunately it does not matter whether the weather becomes warmer or colder, wetter or drier, it is all caused by CO2 in the minds of climate scientists.
High temperature records being broken in Ontario. Low snow packs over the most of British Columbia.
CA state snowpack is currently 179% of ‘normal’
Northern Sierra snowpack is 276% of ‘normal’ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action
Yet the very same agency that publishes these statistics … also insists that CA is in the grips of the 4th year of a drought ‘crisis’ … and describes the state as “dry”
http://www.water.ca.gov/drought/
Why do we allow our state political-scientists to LIE to us ? Why don’t we call for the FIRING of these political apparatchcks ?
Toronto heat wave:
I love watching the jet stream (and associated highs and lows) and how it wreaks havoc on the weather. The current snows in Alberta and Colorado and cool temperatures of the whole of the west of North America, and the hot weather on the east coast is simply a function of the position of the jet stream right now. It is flowing south in the west drawing cold air down along the west coast, then it turns north and is drawing warm Gulf and Mid-Atlantic air north along the east coast.
I am sure the meteorologists among this group are well aware of this phenomenon.
Also, rain and not snow pack determines most of the moisture input east of the Rockies. There were a number of “failed” hydro projects started on the prairies before it was realized that a good rainfall produced more run off than the spring melt. (Just look at the size of the culverts out in the Nevada and Arizona deserts sitting it dry washes.) For example, in one prairie study it was shown that one rainfall event contributed 85% of the total annual flow:
Precipitation
Precipitation differed by only 2% between the agricultural (1802 mm) and prairie (1767 mm) ecosystems for the 132-wk (924-d) period. In general, 1996 was wetter than 1997 at both study sites. A single intense rainfall during Week 2596 (subscript on week no. refers to appropriate year) delivered 103 mm to the prairie and 124 mm to the agricultural ecosystems. As a result, precipitation between May and June (335 mm) was more than twice the 30-yr average for precipitation during the 2 mo (163 mm) (Owenby and Ezell, 1992). The events of Weeks 396 and 2596 produced considerable runoff. For example, in the prairie, which was the only one of the three ecosystems to experience runoff during both Weeks 396 and 2596, the runoff during these 2 wk was estimated to be 85% of the annual total runoff.
From http://soil.scijournals.org/cgi/content/full/64/2/715
See also: http://www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=E0399791-1
It’s the rain.
Snow pack is important, especially for the Pacific basin, but not always the driver.
Most of us can’t figure out weather or water balances, no wonder “climate” is so confusing.
Oops – several sources say snowpack with rain on top causes many floods …
I can see the south side of Mt. Baldy from Orange County where I live, a straight-line distance of 40 miles (64km). It’s unusual to see the top third of the mountain still snow covered in late May.
The ocean is rising fast and could flood Gore’s new home at any point. That new snow was produced by water from melting ice at both poles. Also, the oil leak in the gulf was caused by rising sea levels and added depth pressures on the pipe.
“After the fine tuning the maps, New Jersey State Climatologist and Rutgers University professor David Robinson found a 1990 decline in spring snow extent that we still see today.”
Confirmation bias anyone?
This time last year, southern New Zealand had just experienced a very early snow storm and the coldest May on record. That was followed by a very cold winter.
This year we have just had what is being described as a rainstorm on the once in a hundred years scale. Certainly, there has been extensive flooding, emergency spilling from hydro lakes and the cutting for several days of the main South Island highway, in several places.
Snow has begun to fall to fairly low levels and more is expected. The ski fields could have opened early last year, except the access roads were blocked with snow. It’s shaping up the same way this year, as well. Winter officially starts on June 1.
This weather is unusual to the extent that on the east coast, in many years, snow doesn’t appear until July – some years not at all or only as a dusting on the highest ground. It’s common to get to the shortest day, (June 21) with no really bad weather to speak of, but this year the first frosts came at the beginning of May.
Just to help things along, our usually reasonable and conservative government, apparently alone in the world, is to introduce an ETS on July 1. The power companies are already signalling price increases…
@kenji says:
May 26, 2010 at 11:31 am …
Kenji — You have to be very careful about using spring snowpack numbers as an indication of water supply potential. They usually have more to do with spring temperatures than the total seasonal precipitation (which is what is important).
Last year Obama’s Energy Secretary Steven Chu kicked up a huge fuss talking about a modeled 90% reduction in the April 1 California snowpack if the maximum IPCC-estimated warming came about, implying that this meant a comparable reduction in the available water supply. However, none of the models he relied on forecast any reduction in precipitation for California under these conditions, and most forecast an increase. All that the April 1 reduction meant is that the runoff from the mountains into the reservoirs would happen earlier in the year.
Several years ago, a UC Davis engineering study looked at the impact to the California water supply of several warming scenarios. Taking the extreme scenario used by Chu, and using the overly pessimistic (as they admit) assumption that no additional runoff before April 1 could be captured, they forecast a 15% decline in available water. Probably a more realistic value would be 10% (and this is in 100 years without any infrastructure improvements).
But this works both ways. The very high snowpack values you see now mostly reflect late snowmelt.
Wayne Delbeke says:
May 26, 2010 at 11:55 am
…and which is the driver of the “jet stream”?
The snow pack may be at record level, and you good honest intelligent people are wondering how to convince the world that global warming is not happening. In the meantime Tony Blair is making hay while the sun shines.
The London Evening Standard today reports:
‘The former prime minister will be paid at least £700,000 a year to act as a “strategic adviser” to Khosla Ventures, a venture capitalist firm founded by Indian billionaire Vinod Khosla. The Californian company bankrolls businesses hoping to profit from technology that helps reduce global warming and carbon emissions’.
Let’s hope that even as the snow refuses to melt, the global financial melt will change bankroll to bankrupt and end this scam.