… Sergeant Pepper taught the band to play …
by Steve Goddard
I remember May 18, 1980 like it was yesterday. I was skiing behind Taos Ski Valley in ten foot deep snow, up to the base of Wheeler Peak.
Current view of Taos Ski Valley
At the time, I was working as a volcano researcher for the US Government, studying the nature of explosive volcanic eruptions. When we got back to Taos, we turned on the TV and saw amazing pictures of Mt. St. Helens, which had literally blown it’s top.
Eastern Illinois University photographs
Mt. St. Helens had previously been a dependable source of snow and ice all summer, and the K2 ski team (including Phil Mahre) used to train up there in the summer. It no longer is tall enough for summer skiing.
The mechanism of the eruption is well understood, thanks to an amazing video reconstruction.
As the magma chamber rose up in the volcano (magma is less dense than rock) it did several things. First, it melted the snow and ice and turned the soil into mud. Second, it made the north slope of the volcano steeper and less stable. Third, groundwater from melted snow and ice seeped down into the magma chamber and added to the steam pressure. At 8:32 am, a large earthquake further liquified the soil on the north slope, and caused a massive mud slide. The weight of the overburden quickly became less than the steam pressure inside, and the volcano blew it’s top. A massive amount of ash and trees poured down into the Toutle River wiping out everything in it’s path.
Bridge on the Toutle washing downstream
A reminder that explosive volcanic eruptions dump a lot of steam, ash and gas into the atmosphere.
In June 1783 the Laki volcano close to Katla erupted for several months with clouds of poisonous gas that killed 9,000 people in Iceland. But the eruption also created a cold fog that spread across much of Europe and North America, in some places causing the coldest summer for 500 years as the Sun’s warmth was blotted out.
“The summer of the year 1783 was an amazing and portentous one, and full of horrible phenomena,” wrote the naturalist Gilbert White in Hampshire. “The country people look with a kind of superstitious awe at the red louring aspect of the sun thro’ the fog.” The climate across the northern hemisphere was sent into upheaval, even weakening the monsoon rains in Africa and India, leading to famine in Egypt and India.
A few days ago, the Met Office forecast that the ash cloud would move to the northeast out of British airspace by May 19th. Their forecast for May 18th (today) appears to have been very accurate.
Below is their current forecast for the next five days.
Will Katla erupt? What do readers think?
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DirkH
“I think Katla will erupt within a few months. There is this relationship between solar minima and earthquakes and volcano eruptions; we had a long solar minimum and Katla hasn’t erupted since 1918.”
I doubt there is a scientifically convincing relationship between solar minima and tectonic events. What could connect them?
I lived in Portland at the time of the eruption. We had repeated ash dumps through the year- large enough to pull the gutters off of the houses and turn the ground gray, like a really dirty snow. We wore masks or bandannas when it was really bad and changed our cars air filters often. I’m sure the air port shut for the worst as it is right in the mountain’s shadow but I remember the largest travel disruptions were due to the damage to the bridges. Possibly the ash is more corrosive and higher in fluoride in Iceland. I know of no long lasting ill effects in the North West from exposure to ash who to anyone who wasn’t in the blast site.
Last Tuesday’s soccer practice was cancelled because of a blizzard. Today it was because of a tornado warning.
stevengoddard says:
May 18, 2010 at 3:19 pm
‘Steve Huntwork
You can’t compare the airspace over Washington State with Europe. There are probably a couple of orders of magnitude more planes flying over Europe.’
I think you might be wrong there Steven if you compare, as Steve Huntwork suggested, the lower 48 with Europe! Someone else will undoubtedly tell you how wrong.
“In June 1783 the Laki volcano close to Katla erupted for several months with clouds of poisonous gas that killed 9,000 people in Iceland. But the eruption also created a cold fog that spread across much of Europe and North America, in some places causing the coldest summer for 500 years as the Sun’s warmth was blotted out.”
Rubbish. CET June 1783 = 14.8, July = 18.8 (hottest before 1983), August = 15.8.
There was very cold Feb/Mar, with a strong temp uplift in April 1783.
23,000 died in Britain from 3 months of fumes and dust.
1784 was a cold year overall, but Jul/Aug/Sep temp`s were warm.
St. Helens 1980 eruption started March 21st, peaking again April 13th, then the final event May 18th. All three incresed activity stages were on temperature rises.
Seattle temperatures;
http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Seattle_Seattle_Boeing_Field/03-1980/727935.htm
http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Seattle_Seattle_Boeing_Field/04-1980/727935.htm
http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Seattle_Seattle_Boeing_Field/05-1980/727935.htm
Details of events;
http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/May18/MSHThisWeek/412425/412425.html
Great time lapse video showing the changes around Mt. St. Helens.
A climate significant eruption will be the saving grace for the AGW advocates. Any cooling will be attributed to the volcano. What the skeptic camp needs to emphatically prove its case is a sustained period (at least five years) of global cooling with no special inputs.
For that reason alone it is desirable for the Earth to keep its hat on for a while.
Ulric Lyons says:
May 18, 2010 at 5:12 pm
I have already addressed the winter of 1784 and its astronomical causes here;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/05/suns-magnetics-coming-alive-again/#comment-386726
Theory says volcanic effects on climate are cooler summers and warmer winters, that is not what we see with 1784. I can carry on giving as many examples possible on +ve temperature anomalies leading up to eruptions, and have serious doubts about accepted ideas about signifant cooling of surface temperatures after the events, particularly 1816.
—
Vulcanism is a persistent phenomenon, and involves the episodically waxing and waning of gaseous discharges in extremely large volumes.
Is there any source of information on the character and quantity of such discharges – as a total impact upon the earth’s atmosphere – whereby these may be compared to emissions secondary to purposeful human action?
The warmist True Believers are persistent in their dismissal of vulcanism as a contributory factor in the atmospheric changes to which they attribute anthropogenic global warming. I wonder how much validity there is in these creatures’ claims.
—
Will Katla erupt?
Not the right questions:
Are you afraid Katla will erupt and be worse than possibly imagined?
Every time I visit Redding and see Mt. Shasta I say to myself: “Sure am glad I can’t see that thing from where I live”.
Why Mt. St. Helens and not Mt. Rainier or Mt. Hood? Why not the 3 Sisters all popping thier lids?
PJF says:
May 18, 2010 at 5:16 pm
Actually, it’s up to AGW to prove it’s case what with the 10 years there was no cooling and no major eruptions circling the globe.
We don’t need no 5 years, ’cause we already got twice that much.
5 years of big poppers circling the globe will surely summon the Ice Cream Truck Monster.
lanny joe reed says:
May 18, 2010 at 4:12 pm
concern for europe is hekla- its effect on climate in the dark ages lead europeans to consider it the gateway to hell!
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Was it something like this?
Frugal Dougal, I cannot believe that Ronnie James Dio passed away.
RIP, Dio
I grew up in a small community in Eastern Washington. On the morning of May 18, 1980 I recall watching the thick ash clouds roll in completely blocking out the sun. The ash fell like snow for several hours. We got a couple of inches at my house. Some communities a bit north of us got well over 6 inches!
Clean up was a big mess. For several weeks we had to wear dust masks to go outside, but on the bright side, school was canceled for the remainder of the year.
Google search for “1783 coldest summer for 500 years Gilbert White” gives 264,000 results. Its quite astounding looking at the same “edit” everywhere, all cloned from one source by the look of it, deliberately chopping the part where it says how hot it was. Claims of severe cold in Siberia, Alaska etc. Misinformation influenza! Thanks to “el gordo says: May 18, 2010 at 2:48 pm” for pasting in a more complete report.
European temperatures from 1700 don`t point at any regional difference, this is a solar signal and it would have been hot all over the N.H. in 1783 summer.
http://members.casema.nl/errenwijlens/co2/errenvsluterbacher.htm
Amazing live footage shoot by a reporter caught in the eruption of Saint Helens:
http://www.kval.com/news/local/94178509.html
England and Wales rainfall for 1783, 887mm total (916mm average 1766-2009). September the wettest (125mm) as it cooled down that month.
Some of the ash from Mt. St. Helens fell over Wallowa County in NE Oregon. My grandpa mixed it with epoxy and inlayed it into some of his gunstocks. He usually carved out a diamond pattern. I sure miss that big guy.
The Thames froze solid for two winters in a row between 1783 and 1786, just as solar cycle 3 was nearing bottom.
“As the magma chamber rose up in the volcano (magma is less dense than rock) it did several things. First, it melted the snow and ice and turned the soil into mud.”
Does this need some qualification about density? Otherwise, why has the global crust not sunk into the magma?
Amino Acids in Meteorites presented Ms. SallieLouise Baliunas video of
climate and the societal response-very informative- now, 500 years later and we still have “witches”! Hekla erupted~1300–200 years earlier (beginning of little ice age).
Might one suggest cause?
Lanny
Glenn says:
May 18, 2010 at 3:01 pm
I’m wondering how you could have skied uphill in ten feet of snow behind a valley. But that would sure be something I would remember.
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telemark skiing
Geoff Sherrington
Continental crust is less dense than the mantle rock underneath.
Rich Matarese says:
May 18, 2010 at 5:57 pm
“……The warmist True Believers are persistent in their dismissal of vulcanism as a contributory factor in the atmospheric changes to which they attribute anthropogenic global warming. I wonder how much validity there is in these creatures’ claims.”
____________________________________________________________________________
So that means if we have additional volcanoes blow and cool weather for the next thirty years, they will not blame it on the volcanoes…..
I think the “Warmist True Believers” rather embrace “vulcanism as a contributory factor in atmospheric changes” than give up CO2 warming completely.
jaymam
The more interesting eruption of Taupo, imo, was the circa 200 CE eruption. This was large enough to cause months or years of brilliant sunsets/sunrises as far away as Rome, where it was recorded. Perhaps this event was the trigger for the ending of the Roman Warm Period? An estimated 50 cubic kilometres of fine rhyolite tephra must have played havoc with the albedo of the atmosphere and as a source of water droplet nuclei.