By Steve Goddard
Eyjafjallajokull continues to erupt and is again shutting down British airspace:
A statement on the Nats website said the no-fly zone will be extended between 1pm and 7pm today to include Manchester, Liverpool, Carlisle, Doncaster, Humberside and East Midlands airports, all airports in Northern Ireland and Scottish airports, including Prestwick.
The animated image below shows the Met Office ash forecast for the next few days.
They are forecasting that by May 19 the ash cloud will move to the north. Their forecasts assume a constant eruption pattern and are based on modeled changes in wind patterns. Let’s see how they do.
Mt. St Helens erupted 30 years ago this week.
A–How about animations of
previous met ash cloud projections
compared to actual ash cloud results?
B–Highways have expansion joints–
perhaps volcanoes are located on the
earth’s expansion joints–
as the earth surface cools —
the surface shrinks and the
joints pull apart releasing magama.
Was 1980 a cool period?
C–Current Seismic results–
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/grf.gif
is the red( 0.5 to 1.0 Hz)
the most predictive
pre-eruption frequency?–
it does seems to be rising —
Ed Caryl says:
May 16, 2010 at 6:09 pm
Arizona CJ
check this story:
http://scienceray.com/earth-sciences/conflicting-data-on-icelandic-volcano-katla-update-5210/
I find no earthquake data for on-shore Iceland for the last 30 days. Someone is trying to prevent panic.
_______________________________________________________________________
There was just a minor (under 3) earthquake at the Myrdalsjokull glacier where Katla is located.
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/
Jøkull means glacier in old norse. Icelandic is the modern version of old norse (modern norwegian is more like danish).
Katla is sometimes spelt Kolla on old Icelandic reports. Icelandic “ll” is pronounced “dl” or “tl”. That makes our friend “Ai ya fiat la yoh khut” . Simples.
If “Eyjafjallajokull” were in the Welsh, of course, many more people would have been blinded by flying spittle than ash and aerosol clouds.
BA chief executive Mr Walsh said: “I am very concerned that we have decisions on opening and closing of airports based on a theoretical model.
“There was no evidence of ash in the skies over London today yet Heathrow was closed.”
He added that airlines flew safely in other parts of the world where there was volcanic activity, saying: “If we can do it in every other part of the world, I can assure you we can do it in the UK as well.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8685913.stm
Mr Walsh clearly does not understand how good the models are which the Met Office produce and which are clearly capable of making extremely accurate weather and climate predictions.
Just because there was no volcanic ash over London does not mean that the models are wrong?
But the beauty of it all is that they have overplayed their hand. If Al Gore preaches a coming global ice age due to human activity, we can just find a copy of his movie. Al Gore cannot flip-flop and be taken seriously. And thanks to the internet, what these other scientists said is permanent. Even if the original articles and papers that has their fire and brimstone sermons disappear, there will always be articles and blog posts that quote from those articles, and which scientists have no control over. We didn’t have the internet in its current form the last time scientists preached doom. All they needed is time to cover their tracks. Not true anymore.
What these scientists are more likely to do is continue the mantra but say volcanoes put it on hold for a while. Unfortunately for them, if that happens, people with their short attention span and knee-jerk reactions will move on and quickly forget. So the next logical conclusion after that is for them to move on and blame some other problem not related to climate change on humans.
If Katla blows, next winter could be extremely intresting…..
I made it in and out of Shannon Ireland in the past week. On the way out of NY’s JFK airport, we flew up to northern Canada and then across Greenland (great views of the ice leaving the Arctic Ocean through the strait between Greenland and Iceland–you can really see the currents as they carry ice), then southeast across the middle of Iceland, making landfall over the northern Highlands of Scotland. We came into Ireland over Northern Ireland, and then crossed the country to the southwest before landing in Shannon. Never could see anything over Iceland that looked like a volcano erupting, but I guess we were pretty far north of it. Also some clouds–it was not completely clear.
On the way home yesterday, we flew south west out of Shannon quite a ways out into the Atlantic before turning northwest. Our track across the Atlantic looks like an S.
The airlines seem to be working things out as best they can under the circumstances.
Doug in Seattle says:
May 16, 2010 at 9:42 pm
u.k.(us) says:
May 16, 2010 at 5:03 pm
I may be mistaken, but I believe jet engines have a zero tolerance policy when it comes to volcanic ash.
Actually its the European air regulators who have a zero (or very close to zero) tolerance for ash. Airlines in US fly around volcanic plumes. The problem is one of concentration – not detection. The Euro regulators have adopted something akin to the precautionary principle when it comes to ash, while their American counterparts have examined the risk and have allowed the airlines to set rational thresholds.
Yet Continental cancelled their flights from Newark to Edinbugh for two days before UK CAA closed Scottish airspace. Not so easy seeing this and avoiding it at night, it didn’t exactly disperse much either!
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T101261155
Who pays for the volcano’s carbon credits?
tonyb says:
May 17, 2010 at 12:24 am
There is great hope for even greater accuracy in computer models of the climate judging by the ash cloud scenario
A month ago it closed the whole of Europe, such was the uncertainty of the ash clouds location and effects.
Today the Met office have so improved their forecasts that Gatwick airport can allow outgoing flights but not incoming ones as the Ash cloud is ‘only’ two miles away.
This degree of accuracy and precision has been gained in such a short time scale that I expect a daily forecast of our evolving climate for the next five hundred years will be so good that all debate will be effectively stifled. 🙂
No you have it backwards, the tolerance as of a couple of months ago was to avoid any airspace with ash. Following the earlier closure the operators agreed a laxer standard, now the maps only show airspace that meets that standard. Bear in mind that the European continental airspace is covered by the Toulouse VAAC not London so it must have been their advice that shut down Spanish airspace and Italian airspace last week.
With this ash cloud moving north, I predict that the added ash and soot to the Arctic Ice Cap will result in a much lower Summer minimum ice coverage.
Arizona CJ,
A seismic link for Iceland:
http://en.vedur.is/#tab=skjalftar
Mike Jonas 12:53
I think everyone should just use your pronunciation for the volcano and forget all others.” Eyathingy”
Carsten Arnholm, Norway says:
May 17, 2010 at 5:03 am
“Jøkull means glacier in old norse.” In fact, you had to learn old norse in college back in the 70’ties. I did. Luckily the whole book I got was already translated by the guy using it before me.
A bit OT, but maybe some of you guys are interested in history?
As you know most people on Island come from Norway. When Norway was tranformed from an area with lots of small Viking chieftains, into one kingdom, there was lots of fighting. If you murdered the wrong person , you could be declared “unwanted”. Then it was time to go to Iceland. Whole villages went.
I visited “Borg”, a big viking community in Northern Norway last summer.
They all went to Iceland. When Olav “the holy” took over, you had a choce; Convert to Christianity, or get your head chopped off. Or go to Iceland. Of course that means that all Norwegians today are descendants of the easy going ones who didnt loose their head, or go to Iceland.
Like me. Today its the National Holiday in Norway. We celebrate getting rid of the Dane’s nobility rulers. I think thats why Iceland is steering the cloud outside Norway.
Stacey says:
May 17, 2010 at 5:33 am
BA chief executive Mr Walsh said: “I am very concerned that we have decisions on opening and closing of airports based on a theoretical model.
“There was no evidence of ash in the skies over London today yet Heathrow was closed.”
He added that airlines flew safely in other parts of the world where there was volcanic activity, saying: “If we can do it in every other part of the world, I can assure you we can do it in the UK as well.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8685913.stm
Mr Walsh clearly does not understand how good the models are which the Met Office produce and which are clearly capable of making extremely accurate weather and climate predictions.
Just because there was no volcanic ash over London does not mean that the models are wrong?
He must have missed the satellite images showing a cloud of ash over the UK, including Heathrow! (EUMETSAT)
They’re not opening and closing based on theoretical models, it’s based on actual observations.
Wade says:
May 17, 2010 at 6:00 am
davidmhoffer says:
I think it would just cause a polarity reversal. Jones, Mann, Hanson and the rest of the climate muppets would run the new data in their models and announce that the combination of ash and human emissions would enhance negative feedbacks resulting in an ice age.>>
Wade;
But the beauty of it all is that they have overplayed their hand. If Al Gore preaches a coming global ice age due to human activity, we can just find a copy of his movie.>>
You have no idea the depths to which the “perception managers” will sink, the boldness of their lies, the quickness with which the politicians with an agenda will sweep aside the past or the limited time span of the masses in remembering what was said only a few years before (sadly for many, if they were aware at all).
Old and cynical I may be, but it comes from observation….
Brent Hargreaves says:
May 17, 2010 at 2:26 am
“…After much deliberation I conclude that the AGW theory is plausible, and hinges on two premises: (a) That the forcing effect of CO2 dwarfs all others such as solar and volcanic activity (b) That Earth’s climate is governed by unstable equilibrium.
Demolish (a) or (b) and we can stop all this nonsense and go down the pub instead.”
__________________________________________________________________________
(a) That the forcing effect of CO2 dwarfs all others such as solar and volcanic activity Notice how H2O in all its various forms is left out of this statement.
As Bob Tisdale would say “It’s water stupid!” or Willis “The Thermostat Hypothesis is that tropical clouds and thunderstorms actively regulate the temperature of the earth.”
Only by stating CO2 “drives” changes in water can the warmists get their models to “work”
Water trumps CO2
1) in the amount present in the atmosphere
2) the number and width of the absorption bands soaking up energy from sun and earth
3) the amount of earth surface it covers (70%)
4) the amount of heat it absorbs and retains compared to the atmosphere
5) its effects on the amount of heat that reaches the earth thanks to absorption and reflection( albedo)
Water is THE big player in the climate game NOT CO2, but the politicians can not regulate and tax water as easily so CO2 had to be “linked” to the changes in climate caused by water.
Steve,
I read elsewhere (and can’t find it now) that this volcano last erupted during the Dalton, and the eruption preceding that was about 200 years earlier, placing it in the Maunder.
????
”There is also a curiousity on the ice cap above the Katla volcano…
That is Mýrdalsjökull – under it sleeps Katla – she is a meanie.
Now, look closely at the photo.
See the dimples in the ice.
Those are over the crater… almost like there is a heat source under the ice
But, did they use to be there?
Or are they new?
I don’t know for sure….”
http://scienceblogs.com/catdynamics/2010/04/iceland_-_kakali.php
Wade says:
May 17, 2010 at 6:00 am
davidmhoffer says:
May 16, 2010 at 7:48 pm
el gordo says:
May 16, 2010 at 6:11 pm
I think it would just cause a polarity reversal. Jones, Mann, Hanson and the rest of the climate muppets would run the new data in their models and announce that the combination of ash and human emissions would enhance negative feedbacks resulting in an ice age…..
What these scientists are more likely to do is continue the mantra but say volcanoes put it on hold for a while. Unfortunately for them, if that happens, people with their short attention span and knee-jerk reactions will move on and quickly forget. So the next logical conclusion after that is for them to move on and blame some other problem not related to climate change on humans.
_________________________________________________________________________
The next panic has already been set-up. Food shortages: I will not go into it again at length but everything is just about in place. The final domino was scheduled to be set in 2009 but the American farmers fought back. Now “they” have reorganized and are trying again to get that final domino set in place. (I bring this up because I want to continue to eat.)
see:
The Festering Fraud Behind Food Safety Reform
History
New regs, NAIS is back
Farm Wars
NAIS Stinks
“Eye-Full” a tower in France.
“Eye-Kull” a volcano in Iceland.
_________________
You’ve heard of ‘New Math’, well this is ‘New English’ (It’s a ‘Living Language’ thing.)
“Phil. says:
May 17, 2010 at 6:57 am
Stacey says:
May 17, 2010 at 5:33 am
BA chief executive Mr Walsh said: “I am very concerned that we have decisions on opening and closing of airports based on a theoretical model.
“There was no evidence of ash in the skies over London today yet Heathrow was closed.”
He added that airlines flew safely in other parts of the world where there was volcanic activity, saying: “If we can do it in every other part of the world, I can assure you we can do it in the UK as well.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8685913.stm
Mr Walsh clearly does not understand how good the models are which the Met Office produce and which are clearly capable of making extremely accurate weather and climate predictions.
Just because there was no volcanic ash over London does not mean that the models are wrong?
He must have missed the satellite images showing a cloud of ash over the UK, including Heathrow! (EUMETSAT)
They’re not opening and closing based on theoretical models, it’s based on actual observations.”
You make the mistake of thinking it’s a visible ash cloud i.e. the sort you should avoid. If you read the EUMETSAT site it talks of satellite sensors and software. They are just ‘images’ of slight traces. I live in the south of England and there is no ash cloud. If it wasn’t for the super duper technology we wouldn’t even know it was there.
Go to
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/latestImages.html
and look at ‘vis 0.6’ /color/ western europe and show me the cloud?
You are looking at RGB composites which are enhanced and computerised.
cheers David
The glacier around Eyjafjallajokull is showing a dramatic loss of ice, which is no doubt due to all the CO2 being emitted from the volcano.
Einstein had it wrong. The correct formula is E = CO2C^2
JER0ME says:
May 17, 2010 at 12:23 am
R. Gates says:
May 16, 2010 at 7:48 pm
Funny how a simple volcanic eruption can spawn such an equally volcanic eruption of political [self-snip].
But there are no political statements here…
I personally find it refreshing that volcanoes can cause such a disruption in air travel in our modern times…as though air-travel was some basic human right as opposed to an incredible luxury. Nature has a way of reminding us who ultimately is in charge…
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Nothing political here at all…in fact, quite a-political. And I never rejoice at human suffering, but I don’t consider some Brits getting stuck for an extra few days of holiday on the Coasta Del Sol as a big human suffering. I simply find it refreshing when nature reminds us what is really important and what is not. Jet Travel is a huge luxury and if a volcano grounds a few jet-setters now than then so much the better!