By Steve Goddard
View from NCAR’s roof this morning (NCAR – National Center for Atmospheric Research)
From the “climate models are not climate” department.
It was seven months ago today that the NCAR scientist sent out this infamous E-mail shown below:
From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Michael Mann <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Myles Allen <allen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, peter stott <peter.stott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, “Philip D. Jones” <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Benjamin Santer <santer1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.Karl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, James Hansen <jhansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Michael Oppenheimer <omichael@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).
The Colorado Front Range is now entering it’s eighth month of winter. Yesterday I had to cancel soccer practice for the sixth time in six weeks due to winter weather. Here is what CU experts running climate models forecast two years ago.
DENVER — A study of two Rocky Mountain ski resorts says climate change will mean shorter seasons and less snow on lower slopes.
On the other side of the pond, The Guardian reports :
Snow and frost bring winter chill to May Snowfall, overnight temperatures of -1C
Confirming once again The Met Office Forecast from 10 years ago:
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
Not to mention this gem of modern science:
Scottish ski industry could disappear due to global warming, warns Met Office
How did that prediction turn out?
Scotland records coldest winter. Scotland has suffered some of the coldest winter months in almost 100 years, the Met Office has confirmed.
Scotland’s ski resorts are enjoying one of their most successful seasons ever, with a big rise in visitor numbers and the best conditions in a generation.
Most of the US has been running well below normal temperatures since October 1.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/WaterTDeptUS.png
I wonder if the cold US temperatures might have anything to do with the very cold water in the North Pacific?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
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“Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods.” – Albert Einstein
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8492333.stm
Johnny D
Please come back in 40 years and tell us how the predictions turned out.
In the meantime, I just drove through another mid-May snowstorm and will probably have to cancel tomorrow’s soccer practice.
Ulric Lyons says: “My solar based forecast for this last winter was for very cold conditions at times, with heavy Northern Hemisphere snowfalls.”
Wonderful. This forecast can be found where?
I think it’s important to inform the world that not only was this past winter the snowiest on record in the Northern Hemisphere but that the snow line moved farther south. Global warming predictions say the snow line is supposed to move northward in the Northern Hemisphere and not reach farther south.
The world needs to be informed the earth is cooling. But I think anyone looking out their window already can see that.
Pamela Gray says:
May 12, 2010 at 7:11 pm
I kinda like this new way of covering your arse. I’m going on a diet. I expect heavier as well as lighter weight in the coming months.
Yes. I do like this new way of thinking.
Does it work for the belly too? I haven’t seen my abs since before winter started.
stevengoddard says:
May 12, 2010 at 3:30 pm
Stephen Brown
I was at the beach in Christchurch during July, 2003. It was miserably cold, but about two days later the heatwave of 2003 hit. After two weeks of hot weather, it was declared to be a sure sign of runaway global warming.
The rules are – two weeks of warm weather is climate. But several years of cold weather is just weather. Anyone who doesn’t understand it is breathtakingly ignorant.
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I saw a couple of Senators last week grilling Monckton who are in said state.
Johnny D,
As I pointed out, wikipedia refers to Trenberth as a “head” of the NCAR.
You make the minor quibble that he is not “the” head of the entire NCAR. An irrelevant point that Steve Goddard quickly ceded.
Given the fact that AGW proponents are always claiming that “denialists” are “picking nits” at the periphery of climate science don’t you feel the warm sensation of irony running down your pant leg for picking this tiny nit?
I like it when posts like this inform people that global warming predictions are wrong!
“I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crises. The great point is to bring them the real facts.”
— Abraham Lincoln
Tsk! Those pesky model!
I will stick to the 18th century saying on weather such as,
‘Ne’er cast a clout till May be out’.
For those not into “Old English” see …….
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/walesnature/2010/05/neer_cast_a_clout.html
Ian Cooper in New Zealand: Watch out, because I think your days of being bombed “by sub-tropical lows” will be over sooner than you think. Here in Hobart Tasmania, we had our first real snowfall for the year on Tuesday night and the temp yesterday struggled to post double figures Centigrade. It’s also pretty raw here again today with a significant chill factor adding bite.
Other parts of South-East Australia also received snowfalls and today BOM has announced the El Nino event is over and La Nina is probably taking over. Looks like both hemispheres are equalising!
Cheers to you ,ANZAC friend, and to all other posters. May global warming soon make all your tomatoes ripen!
More of the same in southern France.
http://france.meteofrance.com/france/actu/actu?portlet_id=54866&document_id=22935
http://france.meteofrance.com/france/actu/actu?portlet_id=54866&document_id=22924
Enneagram says: May 12, 2010 at 2:02 pm
vukcevic:“It may or may not anything to do with the sun and the ‘microdots’ masquerading as sunspots. …. there is a lot worse to come, as Livingstone & Penn are forecasting.”
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC14.htm
Enneagram: “What else could it be? Though some clerics of the warming Gaia creed deny it. Time will tell….current paradigms (beliefs) will change but, surely, freeze.”
The Sun – Earth connection may be much more than just the ‘Total Solar Irradiance’ -TSI .
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC1.htm
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC-CETfiles.htm
Hi Keith,
yes I have been keeping an eye on those fronts sweeping into southern parts of Oz icluding one that hit the SW corner under Perth. Those speckled shower clouds on the sat images are a tell-tale sign of a good ol’ southerly buster as they are often called here in Enzed.
I’m not sure why we are getting this sub-tropical stuff, it hit 25 C in Christchurch today, with plenty of 24’s and 23’s aropund the place. It is 20 C in my lounge tonight without any additional heating being applied. I’m sitting around with just a T-shirt on top!
I agree with you my Anzac mate. It is only a metter of time before we see regular southerly fronts rolling up the country with their Antarctic sting. Our last one was in mid March and put the first snow on the volcanic plateau in the central North Island, mainly on the high volcanoes. We’ll just have to put up with this obscene warmth for a little longer!
Cheers, Coops.
heard on the news predictions of a couple of feet of new snow in Wyoming…
This winter isn’t over yet. Maybe by June or July…
“I can only wonder when they (the GCM advocates) will start to switch their baselines towards a period that gives a lower average temperature so that the anomalies for the current “lower” temperatures will still appear to be “higher” than average…”
Can’t be done. That’s why GISS uses 1951-80 rather than the international standard 1961-90. There is no colder 30-year period than 1951-80 available this side of the nineteenth century.
Johnny D says:
May 12, 2010 at 1:00 pm
stevengoddard — “Glad that you are keenly focused on the central points of the article. It is the sign of a sharp intellect.”
The central points of the article — like conflating short-term weather and long-term climate? How does a snowy winter in 2010 disprove predictions of less snow in the 2050s?
This is just downright stupid. Climate models predict warming trends. We have record cold. Response is that we aren’t talking about this year but 2050. First of all, if it was record warm temps this winter it would be proof of AGW. And how is anyone going to prove or disprove a “theory” (and yes folks, AGW is only a theory) if the observable confirmtion is in 2050? Face it buddy, there isn’t a shred of evidence for AGW. Tree rings, fabricated photographs, massaged temperature records, and ice core data aren’t proof of anything. In my book, the cooling trend of the last decade and now a record cold winter around the world is going to be a hard sell of global warming. The AGW crowd screwed up when they focused on the “warming”. Should have focused on “climate change” early on and then they could have their cake and eat it too.
afraid4me says:
May 12, 2010 at 1:09 pm
I think your right.
I was planning a weekend trip for this Friday to go fishing at _________ Creek and _____ River, places I go to almost every year. Usually I can get up there with a fair chance of some nice weather and fishing in April. Forget about it this year and last. Low flows and cold water. This does remind me of the weather in the 70s.
Also, forget about putting in the vegetables here in SE Denver. Way too cold, even for cool weather crops. I’ve had to cover the Bleeding Hearts, the plants, not the social group several times this Spring.
Ah, but Colorado is still the best place to be.
David L
I wouldn’t describe your post as “stupid.” More like cognitive dissonance and a refusal to open up your eyes.
jorgekafkazar says:
May 12, 2010 at 8:37 pm
http://climaterealists.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=350#p7009
Myself and Piers both missed the slightly warmer middle of November, on its diagnosis, I predicted a sharp uplift for the start of April well. I also got the first 2 weeks of January wrong, and have diagnosed this for coming forecasts too. The warming just before Christmass occurred, and the later half of January warmed as expected. The first half of January I had uncertainties with, as I told Gabe of climaterealists and Piers. Otherwise ok. My score for 2009 was 49/52 weeks correct,
I didn`t expect the last week in May to be quite so warm, but all my friends seem to think I got it bang on, and asked for a forecast this year; http://www.sunrisecelebration.com/sunrise-blog/?p=135
Jack Simmons
A friend reminded me yesterday that it is supposed to be safe to plant flowers after Mother’s Day. She lost her entire garden in the snow.
My forecast for April was warming spurts from the 1st, 8th and 17/18th, cooling towards the month end, with a return of rain, after a very dry month. The next uplift was forecasted to be from the 2nd week in May (moderate), and intesifying from the 17/18th, and again from around the 25th.
Ulric Lyons says:
May 13, 2010 at 6:03 am
And because it is all astronomically forced, I can look at this level of detail, backwards in history with uncanny accuracy. Forewards is very interesting too. *
Weather is not climate. Recall a few weeks ago that a cloud of ash covered Europe for awhile. To see a cold outbreak like this follow the ash-event on the other side of the globe (think westerly), I’m not too surprised.
Diesel,
Are you suggesting that the weather knew in October that the volcano was going to erupt in April?
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/WaterTDeptUS.png
http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=1048&filename=1255352257.txt
GAIA knows the future. But models only can see three days in advance.
To all those in the USA complaining of the cold weather, move north to the Canadian tundra. Temperatures there have been 5-8C above average, yesterday at Churchill (Hudsons Bay) it was 17C (average 3C).
Globally March 2010 was the 4th warmest on record and the number one for ocean temperature .
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100420225712.htm
The weather in the north west USA is not an indicator of the temperatures of the rest of the world (that tiny bit of land outside of the USA)
I find this blog post quite amusing. “Deniers” scream foul when the media points out hot weather then use exactly the same tactic when cold weather appears. Kind of ruins Steves’ credibilty imho.
P.S. I am neither for or against AGW yet, I just like good science.
Cris,
The Canadian tundra is a big place. The northernmost sections were 5-10C below normal yesterday.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/ANIM/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.30.gif
Kind of ruins your credibility imho.
This article is about predictions made for the US and the UK, so clearly the Canadian tundra must be what I was talking about. Right?