By Steve Goddard
View from NCAR’s roof this morning (NCAR – National Center for Atmospheric Research)
From the “climate models are not climate” department.
It was seven months ago today that the NCAR scientist sent out this infamous E-mail shown below:
From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Michael Mann <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Myles Allen <allen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, peter stott <peter.stott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, “Philip D. Jones” <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Benjamin Santer <santer1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.Karl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, James Hansen <jhansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Michael Oppenheimer <omichael@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).
The Colorado Front Range is now entering it’s eighth month of winter. Yesterday I had to cancel soccer practice for the sixth time in six weeks due to winter weather. Here is what CU experts running climate models forecast two years ago.
DENVER — A study of two Rocky Mountain ski resorts says climate change will mean shorter seasons and less snow on lower slopes.
On the other side of the pond, The Guardian reports :
Snow and frost bring winter chill to May Snowfall, overnight temperatures of -1C
Confirming once again The Met Office Forecast from 10 years ago:
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
Not to mention this gem of modern science:
Scottish ski industry could disappear due to global warming, warns Met Office
How did that prediction turn out?
Scotland records coldest winter. Scotland has suffered some of the coldest winter months in almost 100 years, the Met Office has confirmed.
Scotland’s ski resorts are enjoying one of their most successful seasons ever, with a big rise in visitor numbers and the best conditions in a generation.
Most of the US has been running well below normal temperatures since October 1.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/WaterTDeptUS.png
I wonder if the cold US temperatures might have anything to do with the very cold water in the North Pacific?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
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“Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods.” – Albert Einstein
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8492333.stm
I’m heading back to Scotland at the weekend for my annual visit. I usually go in May/June. For the last 4 years there has been fresh snow on the hills and a couple of times at low levels (below 1000ft).
stevengoddard — “Glad that you are keenly focused on the central points of the article. It is the sign of a sharp intellect.”
The central points of the article — like conflating short-term weather and long-term climate? How does a snowy winter in 2010 disprove predictions of less snow in the 2050s?
Well I don’t give a fig what you say Mr. Goddard, I am going to firmly believe in GW this spring/summer, and grow some sweet bell peppers in my garden with no protection!
🙂
One good thing about the cold weather is that the Cottonwood trees have just started leafing out. Had this heavy snow fallen on fully leafed out trees, there would be much more property damage from falling branches. That happened in 1996 and made a huge mess.
My understanding is that out of 100 climate regions any one model might get 3 right for a 3% accuracy rate that is less than or equal to random chance! The longer the runs the worse the results. But what do you expect from Nintendo?
We’re back to the winters of the 80’s in Colorado. Snow beginning in October through May. Precip/snowpack at or above average. Summers that don’t reach the normal highs (never could get my tomatoes to turn last summer here in the Front Range). The ski season used to never begin until at least Christmas. Artificial snowmaking has extended it into early October. Shorter ski seasons, right. The reason the resorts closed in mid-April this year was due to economic reasons, not a lack of snow!
Shorter ski seasons, wrong!
I can only wonder when they (the GCM advocates) will start to switch their baselines towards a period that gives a lower average temperature so that the anomalies for the current “lower” temperatures will still appear to be “higher” than average…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/weather
Contents of the page are quite a contrast in perspectives….
April Showers bring May Blizzards.
Colorado weather can do just about anything. And frequently does.
At 2:10pm in the Denver Metro area, the snow is now melted, typical for spring, but the temp is 37 degrees. Not that this is unusual. For those newbies who did their planting last weekend, the rule is not to plant until the Sunday after Mother’s Day. That should be spot on this year.
It could be spring any day now though. I’m REALLY tired of being cold.
The best thing that could happen to this planet, and everything on it, is that it gets warmer…..
…..how is this world did that get spun into a bad thing in the first place?
Gene Zeien says:
May 12, 2010 at 12:22 pm
The GCMs are not… In 30-40 years, …
by then the data, source code, and results will have been eaten by the resident canine. The senior scientists in charge will have retired, or died. Their subordinates will be left holding the bag.
Well here in southern England we’re having to remove delicate flowering plants each night this week to the garage – then back out in the morning. Frost will visit again tonight – very unusual for mid-May here in this part of England!
The average temperature for May in England is 12 deg c (last 10 years). It’s currently averaging just 8 deg c for the month so far!!! Every month since the year began has been cooler than the average of the past 10 years. January was 3.6 deg c cooler than average, but May will beat it if it carries on like this.
Scientists Stunned as Grey Whale Sighted off Israel
This sounds like a good thing to me, but it’s actually a sign of climate change! Yes, it’s worse than we thought because the grey whales are returning after hundreds of years.
In the real world (outside of Academia), those who get paid to forecast and predict future scenarios are only as good as their last attempt. Those who consistently hit the bulls eye are rewarded, those who don’t soon find themselves out of a job.
“climate models are not climate” – LOL
The heat is hiding. The “pretend science” circle sure sound superstitous. The E-mails leaked out an inconvenient amount of truth.
Joe Romm said the droughts were caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Wet and cold are the opposite of hot and dry.
I say enjoy the snow and rain. They don’t have to get all political every time they uncover their eyes and look outside.
WCR – good for bad, bad for good paradigm of global warming impacts
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2010/05/11/a-rare-bird-or-whale-indeed/
I love their wry humour.
For John Egan:
Still snowing in Buffalo, WY at 2:35PM today so I guess a little AGW would’nt hurt us too much. Maybe those ships spraying water into the air that the computer geek Bill Gates dreamed up would give us a little more rain to boot! Got to remind those tourists that this is a 5000 ft elevation desert, here, and the mountains make their own weather.
HA HA HAAA, THE BILL, LET ME AT IT! LET ME AT IT!! GONNA TEAR THAT FRICKIN’ THING TO PIECES! – Kerry-Lieberman bill – all 987 pages http://bit.ly/aTAw8t
Yep, winter marches on here in Colorado – getting pretty tired of it though; Although we only has 2″ of snow last night on the edge of the SW foothills of Denver- more snow north with this storm. It’s been the worst spring cycling season since I have lived here (last 13 years). Still a 44″ base at A-Basin this AM. See http://www.coloradoski.com/
Hit the slopes!
Gene Zeien says:
May 12, 2010 at 12:22 pm
The GCMs are not intended to predict short-term variations in regional weather. I’m certain there are many localized regions where the GCM missed the mark by a few degrees, for a few years(decades?). In 30-40 years, we may know with some certainty whether or not GCMs are useful for predicting long-term climate. 😉
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Yes but we are NOT talking about just a day or two in only one or two places. I am in NC and it has been cold for TWO years.
This is Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming writ large, do not believe your lying eyes – trust the MSM, Gore, Bankster carbon traders & those for world government taxation.
Kerry & Lieberman introduce Cap & Trade today
http://www.brookfieldnow.com/blogs/communityblogs/93611359.html
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Mike Davis says:
May 12, 2010 at 1:09 pm
My understanding is that out of 100 climate regions any one model might get 3 right for a 3% accuracy rate that is less than or equal to random chance! The longer the runs the worse the results. But what do you expect from Nintendo?
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Oh well, when the GCMs finally fall, they can use the supercomputer to surf porn faster … wait … were those the climate scientists or SEC employees?
in Paris,France, yesterday May 11th the temperature was the coldest ever recorded for this day : 7°C