Wikipedia : Traditional Santa Claus
Arctic ice extent continues downwards on the trend line started at the end of March, having lost a little over 1,000,000 km2 during April. If that linear rate continues, the Arctic will be ice free around January 1, 2011. That would be a complete disaster for Santa Claus and the billions of people who depend on him.
During the past month, Arctic sea ice has straddled between the NSIDC 1979-2000 average (wide black line) and the NSIDC 1979-2009 average (wide turquoise line.) The composite image below shows all four commonly used extent graphs – NSIDC/NORSEX/DMI/JAXA . The thin turquoise line is NSIDC 2009. Note that the melt season is about three weeks behind the 2007 extent (dashed) line.
During the last few days, ice has begun to disappear from the Barents Sea. The modified NSIDC map below shows loss of ice from one week ago, marked in red. I wonder if any soot from Iceland is dirtying the ice? Hansen says that soot may be responsible for 25% of all global warming.
The UIUC graph below provides a more detailed blow by blow of what is happening to ice area in the Barents Sea.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.6.html
The modified NSIDC map below shows loss of ice since the first week in April, marked in red.
The modified NSIDC map below shows changes in ice since May 2, 2007. Green areas have more ice, and red areas have less ice.
The modified NSIDC map below shows areas of above “normal” (green) and below “normal” (red) ice. The western Arctic is above average, and the eastern Arctic is below average. Perhaps all the hot air from Copenhagen in December thinned the ice?
During the past few summers, the low anomalies have been on the western side of the Arctic. Note in the SST map below, that ocean temperatures are abnormally cold on the western side, which is likely to slow melt this summer.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
The Arctic Oscillation is forecast to go negative again, which should inhibit melt in the Arctic and growth in my garden.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
We are still about eight weeks away from the beginning of the really interesting melt season. Stay tuned. The Antarctic remains boring, staying average to slightly above. No meltdowns or collapsing ice sheets to report this week.
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Rotten old ice anyway. Flipping and flopping all the time. Bah!
More seriously, there are anecdotal reports that the arctic blocks formed on a pretty dependable basis on the downturn of the last AMO in the early 1940s. If so, we could be in for some more interesting weather in Europe and the southern US.
Agree about “8 weeks from the really interesting” bit. July 1-15 is my next significant milestone. Tho to the degree I’m looking at anything between now and then, I’m looking at the concentration levels of the central core. This can be checked vs 2007 and 2008 at Cryosphere, tho alas 2009 is not there because of technical issues they had at the time.
“During the past few summers, the low anomalies have been on the western side of the Arctic. ”
lameman here…. I believe that is also true for earlier:2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=05&fd=02&fy=2003&sm=05&sd=02&sy=2010
LoL …great line
.
“…Arctic ice extent continues downwards on the trend line started at the end of March, having lost a little over 1,000,000 km2 during April. If that linear rate continues, the Arctic will be ice free around January 1, 2011. …”
Santa is OK, he’s preparing. He removed the sled runners and put on pontoons, got some Speedos to wear (imagine red Speedos trimmed with white fur), and traded in his Reindeer for Porpoises. Rudolph will be handing over his lead to Flipper. Mrs. Claus has stopped making hot buttered rum and now has a large blender, keeping Santa and the elves in Pina Coladas. Santa has also installed an inflatable life boat, just in case flipper takes a dive. I hear he’s thinking about installing some of those large stereo speakers and a stereo like the ski boats have, too. The song “White Christmas” will be nixed in favor of Elvis singing “Blue Hawaii.”
The real question is…where can I get a pipe like the one St. Nick is smoking from?
Where is all that melting ice hiding?
The NSIDC 1979-2000 “average” is perhaps the most insidious of statistical measures akin to only tracking sunspots for half a solar cycle.
The Japan Current looks mighty cold at the source. In fact, the entire N. Pacific looks quite cold.
Don’t worry about Santa. He moved his base to Lapland during the MWP.
I’m spacing my garden rows 3 feet apart this year and using soaker hose to water them at the roots. This will keep the intervening paths dry which should absorb solar energy to help keep the garden warmer and more productive. If it isn’t better than last year (which saw only 4 days 90 degrees or above and nothing over 93), there’s no use trying to grow veggies. I’m trying this as an experiment to counter the colder weather. Luckily, I have all the garden space I need, which typically isn’t the norm.
“If that linear rate continues, the Arctic will be ice free around January 1, 2011. ”
Trend without end, Amen.
If this trend continues, summer will not get to my place either.
OT or maybe not…
“Katla’s last major eruption took place in 1918, and another has been expected since the 1960s, said Reynir Bodvarsson, an Icelandic geologist with Uppsala University in Sweden.”
from
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hoblT58dZPHENrNZ-MR_XgSreulAD9F6CD4G1
It is a well known fact that the ice from the Arctic migrates every year to the Antarctic… with just a phase change. As you can see, ice is never lost.
DirkH says:
May 3, 2010 at 1:54 pm
OT or maybe not…
Santa counts on it.
Rob Dawg says:
May 3, 2010 at 1:30 pm:
Yes! Especially since the climate swamis were proclaiming an ice age was coming absolutely for sure in 1976, so the ice had to be very high in extent and volume during that time frame and shortly afterward, when the measurement “normal” begins to be reckoned. What a scam! Sort of like when stock brokers tell you to buy when the market is high – they still get the high commissions (here, grants) whether the sucker wins or loses. “Keep them grants (commissions) a-comin’ “.
Yes, I heard that Rudolph retired. Not only that, no one seems to know what happened to all of the other reindeer?
When talking about polar regions, how do you determin what is West and what it East? It seems to be to be like using right and left. The crazy thing about the arctic is that the land masses are centralized in each hemesphere.
Is it West is considered near 0° and East is near 180° (East and West)?
Rick says:
May 3, 2010 at 1:29 pm
Where is all that melting ice hiding?
Now I like that line!!!
Perhaps we can get a big ol’ gov’t grant to find it!!
This reminds me of the tobacco juice bullet that NYC miraculously dodged early in the last century.
If the linear trend of sidewalk tobacco juice increase that occurred between Feb. 17, 1870 and July 4, 1905 had continued, New York City’s sidewalks would now be under 3.1415926..etc. feet of that unattractive brown liquid. Wheew!!
I had no idea this had anything to do with gardening. My gardening cycle being a bit unique, I thought I would share it in the event that anyone can advise the best way to proceed based on previous history:
May – plant garden
June – weed garden
July – weed garden
August – swear profusely at the multitudes of deer which jumped an 8 foot fence to harvest my whole garden in just a 12 hour period a week or so before I would have myself.
Will the cold cycle mean less garden? Will there be less weeds? Will either the weeds or the deer be hollow? What about the carrots? Or should I watch out for rotten deer and carrots rather than hollow? If I plant no garden, but tell my wife I did, and just mow the garden so it looks like I weeded it, will anyone know the difference? The deer will know, but they have weak language skills, so they won’t tell. Same outcome as planting a garden, and I can maintain that global warming/cooling made no difference, hence the hypothesis is falsified?
I do not belive will gone artic ice in jan 1 2011 I don’t think so.
If that linear rate continues, the Arctic will be ice free around January 1, 2011.
Great news for New Year’s Day! Out with the old and in with the new!
We should check with Josh about doing the appropriate graphics. Since Climategate Phil Jones has been aging a year every month, so he should be ripe for the Old Year. The baby New Year should be, who else, Michael Mann, holding a hockey stick while gnawing on a tree ring. They’re good for teething, right? Don’t forget the official Penn State University security blanket. 😉
O M F G! S A N T A!!! Noooo
Grennie lunatics, maybe green piecers, actually use that crap to scare children into believing their garbage, and that’s just cruel.
Models strike back:
Is the ash cloud chaos back? Scotland and Ireland shut down airspace amid new safety fears
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1271346/Iceland-volcano-Ash-cloud-returns-grounds-flights-Ireland.html#ixzz0muCjKjmz