WUWT Arctic Sea Ice News #3

Wikipedia : Traditional Santa Claus

Arctic ice extent continues downwards on the trend line started at the end of March, having lost a little over 1,000,000 km2 during April.  If that linear rate continues, the Arctic will be ice free around January 1, 2011.  That would be a complete disaster for Santa Claus and the billions of people who depend on him.

During the past month, Arctic sea ice has straddled between the NSIDC 1979-2000 average (wide black line) and the NSIDC 1979-2009 average (wide turquoise line.) The composite image below shows all four commonly used extent graphs – NSIDC/NORSEX/DMI/JAXA .  The thin turquoise line is NSIDC 2009.  Note that the melt season is about three weeks behind the 2007 extent (dashed) line.

During the last few days, ice has begun to disappear from the Barents Sea. The modified NSIDC map below shows loss of ice from one week ago, marked in red.  I wonder if any soot from Iceland is dirtying the ice?  Hansen says that soot may be responsible for 25% of all global warming.

The UIUC graph below provides a more detailed blow by blow of what is happening to ice area in the Barents Sea.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.6.html

The modified NSIDC map below shows loss of ice since the first week in April, marked in red.

The modified NSIDC map below shows changes in ice since May 2, 2007.  Green areas have more ice, and red areas have less ice.

The modified NSIDC map below shows areas of above “normal” (green) and below “normal” (red) ice.  The western Arctic is above average, and the eastern Arctic is below average.  Perhaps all the hot air from Copenhagen in December thinned  the ice?

During the past few summers, the low anomalies have been on the western side of the Arctic.  Note in the SST map below, that ocean temperatures are abnormally cold on the western side, which is likely to slow melt this summer.

Current  Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Plot

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

The Arctic Oscillation is forecast to go negative again, which should inhibit melt in the Arctic and growth in my garden.

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

We are still about eight weeks away from the beginning of the really interesting melt season. Stay tuned.  The Antarctic remains boring, staying average to slightly above.  No meltdowns or collapsing ice sheets to report this week.

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ShrNfr

Rotten old ice anyway. Flipping and flopping all the time. Bah!
More seriously, there are anecdotal reports that the arctic blocks formed on a pretty dependable basis on the downturn of the last AMO in the early 1940s. If so, we could be in for some more interesting weather in Europe and the southern US.

geo

Agree about “8 weeks from the really interesting” bit. July 1-15 is my next significant milestone. Tho to the degree I’m looking at anything between now and then, I’m looking at the concentration levels of the central core. This can be checked vs 2007 and 2008 at Cryosphere, tho alas 2009 is not there because of technical issues they had at the time.

Alec, a.k.a. Daffy Duck

“During the past few summers, the low anomalies have been on the western side of the Arctic. ”
lameman here…. I believe that is also true for earlier:2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=05&fd=02&fy=2003&sm=05&sd=02&sy=2010

Ed Forbes

LoL …great line
.
“…Arctic ice extent continues downwards on the trend line started at the end of March, having lost a little over 1,000,000 km2 during April. If that linear rate continues, the Arctic will be ice free around January 1, 2011. …”

Santa is OK, he’s preparing. He removed the sled runners and put on pontoons, got some Speedos to wear (imagine red Speedos trimmed with white fur), and traded in his Reindeer for Porpoises. Rudolph will be handing over his lead to Flipper. Mrs. Claus has stopped making hot buttered rum and now has a large blender, keeping Santa and the elves in Pina Coladas. Santa has also installed an inflatable life boat, just in case flipper takes a dive. I hear he’s thinking about installing some of those large stereo speakers and a stereo like the ski boats have, too. The song “White Christmas” will be nixed in favor of Elvis singing “Blue Hawaii.”

Joel

The real question is…where can I get a pipe like the one St. Nick is smoking from?

Rick

Where is all that melting ice hiding?

Rob Dawg

The NSIDC 1979-2000 “average” is perhaps the most insidious of statistical measures akin to only tracking sunspots for half a solar cycle.

rbateman

The Japan Current looks mighty cold at the source. In fact, the entire N. Pacific looks quite cold.

Wansbeck

Don’t worry about Santa. He moved his base to Lapland during the MWP.

RockyRoad

I’m spacing my garden rows 3 feet apart this year and using soaker hose to water them at the roots. This will keep the intervening paths dry which should absorb solar energy to help keep the garden warmer and more productive. If it isn’t better than last year (which saw only 4 days 90 degrees or above and nothing over 93), there’s no use trying to grow veggies. I’m trying this as an experiment to counter the colder weather. Luckily, I have all the garden space I need, which typically isn’t the norm.

rbateman

“If that linear rate continues, the Arctic will be ice free around January 1, 2011. ”
Trend without end, Amen.
If this trend continues, summer will not get to my place either.

DirkH

OT or maybe not…
“Katla’s last major eruption took place in 1918, and another has been expected since the 1960s, said Reynir Bodvarsson, an Icelandic geologist with Uppsala University in Sweden.”
from
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hoblT58dZPHENrNZ-MR_XgSreulAD9F6CD4G1

Ray

It is a well known fact that the ice from the Arctic migrates every year to the Antarctic… with just a phase change. As you can see, ice is never lost.

Enneagram

DirkH says:
May 3, 2010 at 1:54 pm
OT or maybe not…

Santa counts on it.

bubbagyro

Rob Dawg says:
May 3, 2010 at 1:30 pm:
Yes! Especially since the climate swamis were proclaiming an ice age was coming absolutely for sure in 1976, so the ice had to be very high in extent and volume during that time frame and shortly afterward, when the measurement “normal” begins to be reckoned. What a scam! Sort of like when stock brokers tell you to buy when the market is high – they still get the high commissions (here, grants) whether the sucker wins or loses. “Keep them grants (commissions) a-comin’ “.

Mike M

CO2 Insanity says: May 3, 2010 at 1:27 pm Rudolph will be handing over his lead to Flipper.

Yes, I heard that Rudolph retired. Not only that, no one seems to know what happened to all of the other reindeer?

Jeff in Ctown

When talking about polar regions, how do you determin what is West and what it East? It seems to be to be like using right and left. The crazy thing about the arctic is that the land masses are centralized in each hemesphere.
Is it West is considered near 0° and East is near 180° (East and West)?

Lance

Rick says:
May 3, 2010 at 1:29 pm
Where is all that melting ice hiding?
Now I like that line!!!
Perhaps we can get a big ol’ gov’t grant to find it!!

D. Malloy Dickson

This reminds me of the tobacco juice bullet that NYC miraculously dodged early in the last century.
If the linear trend of sidewalk tobacco juice increase that occurred between Feb. 17, 1870 and July 4, 1905 had continued, New York City’s sidewalks would now be under 3.1415926..etc. feet of that unattractive brown liquid. Wheew!!

I had no idea this had anything to do with gardening. My gardening cycle being a bit unique, I thought I would share it in the event that anyone can advise the best way to proceed based on previous history:
May – plant garden
June – weed garden
July – weed garden
August – swear profusely at the multitudes of deer which jumped an 8 foot fence to harvest my whole garden in just a 12 hour period a week or so before I would have myself.
Will the cold cycle mean less garden? Will there be less weeds? Will either the weeds or the deer be hollow? What about the carrots? Or should I watch out for rotten deer and carrots rather than hollow? If I plant no garden, but tell my wife I did, and just mow the garden so it looks like I weeded it, will anyone know the difference? The deer will know, but they have weak language skills, so they won’t tell. Same outcome as planting a garden, and I can maintain that global warming/cooling made no difference, hence the hypothesis is falsified?

damron walton

I do not belive will gone artic ice in jan 1 2011 I don’t think so.

kadaka (KD Knoebel)

If that linear rate continues, the Arctic will be ice free around January 1, 2011.
Great news for New Year’s Day! Out with the old and in with the new!
We should check with Josh about doing the appropriate graphics. Since Climategate Phil Jones has been aging a year every month, so he should be ripe for the Old Year. The baby New Year should be, who else, Michael Mann, holding a hockey stick while gnawing on a tree ring. They’re good for teething, right? Don’t forget the official Penn State University security blanket. 😉

1DandyTroll

O M F G! S A N T A!!! Noooo
Grennie lunatics, maybe green piecers, actually use that crap to scare children into believing their garbage, and that’s just cruel.

Enneagram

Models strike back:
Is the ash cloud chaos back? Scotland and Ireland shut down airspace amid new safety fears
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1271346/Iceland-volcano-Ash-cloud-returns-grounds-flights-Ireland.html#ixzz0muCjKjmz

PJP
jeff brown

AW writes:
The Arctic Oscillation is forecast to go negative again, which should inhibit melt in the Arctic and growth in my garden.
How do you link a negative AO to less sea ice melt? The negative AO has been linked to a stronger Beaufort Sea High, which actually favors more ice melt in this region and has been explained in a number of papers in recent years, including one of the earlier ones by Rigor and Wallace 2004. And if you’ll note, the BSH has been high the last several years in summer, favoring more ice melt.

mamapajamas

@davidmhoffer says:
May 3, 2010 at 2:17 pm
“May – plant garden
“June – weed garden
“July – weed garden
“August – swear profusely at the multitudes of deer which jumped an 8 foot fence to harvest my whole garden in just a 12 hour period a week or so before I would have myself.”
Hmmm… this sounds like an excellent way to round up some venison. 😀

jeff brown
During the very high ice years in the early 1980s. the AO stayed negative all the time.
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/AO_NAO_files/image005.jpg

Linear trends are rarely found in nature and almost never where chaotic variables are concerned. To state such is to utter an oxymoron. That said, I want to know what those who make such predictions are smoking. It must be way better then my Amphora and I want some too. ( I believe Brigham in Toronto and Peterson in Copenhagen both make the kind of pipes Santa smokes.)

Joe

I would guess otters on a row boat to Santas next mode of transportation.
Mind you Britain has been naughty this year.

Nikonman

Rick says:
May 3, 2010 at 1:29 pm
Where is all that melting ice hiding?
We can’t explain where the melting ice has gone, and it’s a travesty that we can’t.

jeff brown

stevengoddard says:
May 3, 2010 at 3:19 pm
Steve. I think there you are referring to the winter AO. And yes, a negative winter AO in the past has been associated with more sea ice because of the stronger Beaufort Gyre which causes ice to recirculate in the basin for several years. However, in summer a negative AO pattern has been associated in a number of studies with more ice melt (and especially warmer ice temperatures in the western Arctic). And as you’ll notice from animations of ice age the ice is no longer surviving the Beaufort Gyre in summer like it used to….so a stronger Beaufort Gyre that brings even more of that old ice into the warmer waters is probably not a good thing…
There is a recent paper by Ohashi and Tanaka (Data analysis of recent warming pattern in the Arctic) that says the positive winter AO trend caused warming before 1989 and the negative summer AO trend since then have caused warming. I’m not convinced their analysis is sound, but it is a paper that says all of it is from the AO (and thus natural variability).

PaulH

From Lawrence Solomon at the National Post:
“Arctic ice sets records in April, could auger global cooling”
http://network.nationalpost.com/NP/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2010/05/03/lawrence-solomon-arctic-ice-sets-records-in-april-could-auger-global-cooling.aspx
“The Arctic ice set 30 records in April, one for each day. According to satellite data received by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, the Arctic was more ice bound each day of April than it had been any other corresponding day in April since its sensors began tracking the extent of Arctic Ice in mid 2002.”

RockyRoad

@davidmhoffer: I think mamapajamas has an excellent idea, although deer harvest may not be as free as veggie harvest; beware the game warden! But on the topic of weeds, this is the first in 10 years I’m planting a garden and I engineered a solution–got me a Cub Cadet tiller because it’s the proper balance between capability and cost. I’d love a new BCS but they’re about $2600–three times the Cub Cadet. This cheaper unit is big enough w/ a 5hp Honda motor to till if you make 2 passes each way at 3″ and 2 more passes at 7″, with a plastic bucket (not included) tied to the handle stem for collecting rocks and added weight. Running the tines backwards works the unit against the forward-rotating tires which makes tilling easier.
Plant the rows far enough apart that the tiller can move between them without damaging the plants and later on shift the tines to forward and move the depth up to 3″ for taking out the weeds. I’m also looking at a high-wheel cultivator for closer weeding and soil breakup. This will still require some back-breaking row weeding, but that’s not as bad as trying to weed the whole bloomin’ plot all summer. For bird control, hang a bunch of useless CDs on surrounding trees or your fence posts with shoe strings, but to control deer the only effective deterrent is a taller fence.
If my garden fails, I’ll join the Warmers and pretend it was warm and productive.

Ulric Lyons

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
I would take the forecast with a pinch of salt. It just looks like a proxy for solar activity over the last few months to me.

Amino Acids in Meteorites

“Perhaps all the hot air from Copenhagen in December thinned the ice?”
Nope. It’s those hot Norse girls!

Steve in SC

Wonder how the earthquake in the Bering Sea affected things?
Were there any Iranian women visiting Kamchatka at the time?

R. Gates

Thanks for that nice update Anthony. I personally would like to not only have Santa’s pipe, but what’s in it that makes him so Jolly.
You are right about it being too early in the season to say anything, except more for historical and statistical reasons. The artic was not exceptionally cold this winter, and the negative AO both kept the ice from moving in large amounts through the Fram strait, but also the high pressure from the neg. AO also made Greenland and N. Canada made those areas very warm as you know. A negative AO in the spring and summer has a whole different set of effects, that would not necessarily mean a slowing of ice melt at all–in fact, the higher pressure could lead to more insolation with clearer skies, and certainly warmer temps in the arctic as the colder air is pushed out of the region. I don’t see the AO going exceptionally negative anyway.
A few things for people to watch in the next week: 2010 arctic sea ice dropping below both 2009 and 2008 levels for this time of year.(it’s already below 2009). Statistical point yes, but of interest as we head toward the real melting months. Look also for continued rapid melt in the Barents Sea (but slowing down from the cliff it’s falling off now) and a pick up in melt in Hudson Bay.
Finally, just because someone else mentioned this a few months back because the ice was slightly above normal there at the time, the ice on the Tanana River in Nenana AK has broke up (on April 29), actually a few days earlier than normal, and earlier than in 2008 or 2009, but not as early as 2007.
http://nenanaakiceclassic.com/
Some lucky person or persons will make a nice bit of money off their bet, and most people probably bet the ice would break up on a later date as it was higher than normal during the same time as that March “bump up” in arctic sea.

Tom in Florida

“Arctic ice extent continues downwards on the trend line started at the end of March, having lost a little over 1,000,000 km2 during April. If that linear rate continues, the Arctic will be ice free around January 1, 2011”
Conversely, temperatures here in central west Florida are rising. If that linear rate continues, the water in the lakes will start to boil by the end of October 2010.

R. Gates

PaulH says:
May 3, 2010 at 3:57 pm
From Lawrence Solomon at the National Post:
“Arctic ice sets records in April, could auger global cooling”
——–
Too bad Mr. Solomon’s article is completely missing one thing– the truth. He uses the 8 years of JAXA data, completely ignoring the longer 30+ years available through NOAA. If he used that data, he’d of reported the startling headline:
“April Arctic Sea ice comes close, but never quite reaches the long term average…”
But it didn’t suit his political agenda to report this more truthful headline…and with such a lack of attention to the broader truth, I can think of at least one network he could probably get a job with…

Ulric Lyons

R. Gates says:
May 3, 2010 at 4:59 pm
“Some lucky person or persons will make a nice bit of money off their bet”
Grab it while you can, once enough people know the agenda, the bet is off for sure!

RayG

D. Malloy, aren’t you Pi-ling on just a little?

rbateman

R. Gates says:
May 3, 2010 at 5:28 pm
For you, once again:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/YearlySeaIceAv.GIF
It’s nothing more than part of a cycle with the Antarctic competing with the Arctic, where global sea ice is concerned.
Once the Antarctic stop growing more ice year on year, and the Arctic starts growing more ice, then I’m quite sure the alarming news will shift polarity. I’d say that point has just about arrived.
Climate hysteria has it’s origins in the widespread use of thermometers.
Before that time, man adapted best he could.
Now, he’s prodding into freaking out at each turnabout of the trend line.
You’d think that, after 4 episodes of climate hysteria changing polarity, the message would sink in.

Tsk Tsk

R. Gates says:
May 3, 2010 at 5:28 pm:
“…I can think of at least one network he could probably get a job with…”
MSNBC? Or perhaps he could join RePower America?

spangled drongo

Rick,
I think you will find that the melting ice is gyreing and gimbling in the wabe.
And hast thou slain the Jabberwock?
Come to my arms my beamish boy.
Oh frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!
He chortled in his joy.

bubbagyro

jeff brown says:
May 3, 2010 at 3:55 pm:
Jeff:
The Ohashi and Tanasha paper is heavy on “associations” but light on (actually devoid of) significance. The word “correlation” never appears. Statistics are not presented, typical of almost all climate “science” papers, unless weak correlations (like 0.6=r) are found. The word “association” and “trend” are used dozens of times in the O&T paper and false color maps and pretty graphs with many lines are used to show “associations”.
These scientists are really at a disadvantage; I commiserate with them. They are trying to deduce true statistical correlations and trends in a complex, hopelessly multivariate system.

jeff brown

bubbagyro…I completely agree. I think this paper is not an example of good science. I just thought skeptics might like the paper since it says it’s all due to natural variability and not at all from human activities….

dp

The rate of ice loss (and increase) is approximately equivalent for every year in the chart. That means someone somewhere is going to claim we’re having the greatest ice loss by volume in recent record. It will be seen as more evidence of man made warming. Nobody will think ice breakers have a thing to do with it.