You gotta love it when the Earth gives back the love, especially today.
Those who have been following NSIDC and JAXA sea ice plots have noted that this has been an extraordinary year so far, with Arctic sea ice hitting the “normal” line on some datasets. Today the Earth gave back more for us.
As of today, JAXA shows that we have more ice than any time on this date for the past 8 years of Aqua satellite measurement for this AMSRE dataset. Yes, it isn’t much, but if this were September, and the sea ice minimum was down by this much compared to all other years, you can bet your sweet bippy we’d see it screamed in news headlines worldwide.
Of course some will argue that it “doesn’t matter” in the context of trend, or that it’s just a “weather” blip. Let us remind our friends of such blips the next time a heat wave or a storm is cited as proof of global warming.
What can be said about the short term trend in Arctic sea ice is that for the past two years, it has recovered from the historic low of 2007. It recovered in 2008, and more in 2009. If today’s Earth Day gift is any indication, it appears that it is on track now for a third year of recovery in 2010 as we’ve been saying at WUWT since fall of 2009.
I’d show NSIDC’s current Arctic Sea Ice graph also, but their website was down earlier today, and the current sea ice graph is not updated. But Steve Goddard has made some comparison overlays that are interesting.
He writes via email:
NSIDC’s web site is down today, but I overlaid DMI on top of the NSIDC graph and it should have hit the mean line today. Same story for JAXA. Images are below.
DMI uses 30% concentration, so their scale is lower than NSIDC and JAXA at 15%. I shifted the DMI data upwards and stretched vertically to visually match the NISDC data.
The second image is JAXA, DMI and NSIDC together. JAXA also needed to be shifted vertically as they apparently use a different algorithm for calculating extent than NSIDC. All three track each other fairly closely during the spring, DMI diverges from the others during the fall freeze up – probably because of the higher concentration requirements.
Blue is NSIDC. Green is JAXA. Black is DMI. The thick black line is the NSIDC mean. The dashed line is the 2007 historic low.
ADDED: Here is a wider view that shows that the three time series match closely over the interval of the NSIDC graph
======================
Happy Earth Day everybody!
/SARC ON
The data must be in error…
/SARC OFF
“Of course some will argue that it “doesn’t matter” in the context of trend, or that it’s just a “weather” blip. Let us remind our friends of such blips the next time a heat wave or a storm is cited as proof of global warming.”
The El Nino blip of the first 1/4 of this year doesn’t matter.
R. de Haan (11:11:21) :
Check the pictures for Arctic Sea Ice that compares 2000 and 2010, and the text below it. Either they swapped the images, need new glasses, or need lessons in English.
Scott Covert (10:58:56) :
“This is a non-issue…”
I don’t follow you. It is one of the primary issues in global warming. There are only 4 years left to Al Gore’s prediction that the North Pole could be ice free because of global warming.
It is the primary issue that global warming predictions are already failing. So, it follows then that their 50 and 100 year predictions are worthless.
Everyone must be informed that global warming predictions are worthless.
Shouldn’t they? Don’t you want Cap N Trade stopped? Don’t you want the “Village of the Damned” look in some teenagers and childrens faces to be to be changed into a smile of relief because we are not headed to a litany of disasters?
Please don’t say this in a non-issue.
cloud10 (11:05:14) :
“Earth Day – Lenin’s Birthday – which tells us something of what this is all about.
I am not sure Trotsky would have “picked” the Ice Story as a birthday present for him though.”
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Maybe Solzhenitsyn would have. 🙂
Mike Haseler (11:15:55) :
Climate scientist sues newspaper for ‘poisoning’ global warming debate
Climate modeller Andrew Weaver launches libel action
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Apparently his climate modellor livelihood is being threatened.
Does he see himself holding a sign saying “Will model for food” in his future?
rb Wright (11:33:32) :
“For Earth Day, the normally rational Weather Channel is now showing an alarmist Global Warming program, describing giant dust storms ruining Las Vegas, water shortages world wide, soaring temperatures everywhere, with a spooky voice over.”
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I think a couple of their employees are global warming alarmists. But from the little wise cracks about global warming I’ve heard from a couple of the others not all of them are.
Who is this “Earth” you speak of?
Geo
I grew up in Pembina, ND and have family there still. If you have any problems getting what you are looking for, perhaps I could help.
DirkH (12:50:38) :
“” John from CA (12:16:23) :
Mike Haseler (11:16:17) :
There isn’t any way he can win this suit,”
I don’t think he can win against the newspaper but he might be able to win libel suits against some hotblooded commenters. This together with Dr.Mann’s legal fight against M4GW indicates that a new phase has begun. AGW money can finance a lot of lawsuits. Keep your tongue in check everyone.”
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If they can’t beat a newspaper why would they go after a comment on a blog??
Imagine the news report,” Scientists sues commenter on the internet. The same scientists lost a suit against a newspaper and a tv station but he won in a separate suit over a comment on a blog.”
You think we would see this story in the news?
Tenuc (15:21:33) :
Phil. (12:25:05) :
“To be accurate about it Arctic sea ice extent is high compared with the last 9 years. The sea ice area is not nor was its maximum late. Taken together these facts indicate spreading of the sea ice more than normal. I consider that interesting, similar to what happened in summer 07.”
You need to look at a proper data-source Phil, before putting your foot in it!
If you go to the Arctic-ROOS site here…
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
…you will find that both area and extent are dead-on the 1979 to 2006 average!
I did use reliable sources, unfortunately Arctic-ROOS hasn’t been so since the satellite they use hit trouble last year. My preference is JAXA and CT.
R Gates, your Arctic microclimate graphs (IE Bering Strait) demonstrate not melting so much as wind pushing, piling, and pulling ice here and there. You can easily correlate and predict what the extent and area graphs will say the next day by closely following wind data. Plus volume, in my opinion, is determined by pile-up, not by age (research Great Lakes ice volume for example).
I have been following the Arctic wind patterns over the past several years. Last year and this, wind patterns predicted pile ups. Which leads to very thick, interconnected twisted piles of ice that don’t break apart and melt very quickly. I predict, in opposite to your prediction, that we will continue to see summer ice recovery from its 07 low. Not because anything is warmer or colder, but because the ice is kinda in a constipated impacted condition. And there is no enema in sight. Unless the AO turns strongly positive.
Happy Earth Day!
Here’s the link to Dr. John Holdren’s speech at the Chicago Grand Challenges summit yesterday, it has some real red-meat for everyone:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/jph-chicago-04212010.pdf
“Enjoy!”
Anu (14:31:37) :
Steve Goddard writes via email: [snip]
Selecting parts of a personal email and arguing it online is not appropriate. ~dbs, mod.
Personal email ?
It was all from this very article, above.
See the section where the article says “He [Steve Goddard] writes via email:”
Anyway, it was all tongue-in-cheek for Earth Day.
Cheers.
Ice VOLUME is the best ,,, but the ICESAT that took it directly died. Still:
The Polar Science Center has a model using all the lesser indicators & total Arctic Sea Ice VOLUME bottomed out at ~5800 cubic miles last year —
… Now the 2007 El Nino (rated 1.1 whilst this year’s peaked at 1.8) dropped that September near 4000 lower than the previous year (2006).
1.8 over 1.1 times 4000 = ~ 6500 … less than 2009 ( = 5800 )
5800 – 6500 = ZERO
… which means ZERO ice, by VOLUME, come September.
Now you cannot have an Area, or Extent, without Volume.
Frankly I expect only the Greenland Fringe area to survive.
Unless we put up some SO2 to cool things …
I expect most — like 99% — of the USA & Europe are going to DIE when the Arctic’s 24-a-day Sunshine (“Midnight Sun”) area, gets warmer than the area South of it, the Ocean Currents stop, and, later when the 6-month Polar Night drops temps again, there are no warming currents for 3 months as they take that long to get all the way up from the Tropics, & this induces 300 mph winds which destroy every building North of about 10 degrees North latitude … sometime around January. Unless there is a flaw somewhere in this Logic.
Please: someone find it !
PS: Please understand this is NO JOKE. Think of this killing our nieghbors’ kids if we do not act. It’s like Russian Roulette with 2 billion kids.
kadaka (13:07:31) :
Where is the post from Anu saying how all this eggshell-thin new ice will be gone by September as we hit the lowest extent in a decade?
Hey, you remembered “eggshell”, “September” and “a decade”, pretty good.
Not quite how I used them though:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/28/skating-on-the-other-side-of-the-ice/#comment-355191
Did you forget the “thinning” part ?
I don’t know, something seems missing without such “Enjoy it now, you’ll be crying later!” posts. Gives a skeptic like me a warm fuzzy feeling and puts a nice smile on my face. Anyone else get that?
Sure, enjoy your 2D extent data now.
I would be too, if I didn’t know about this:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/images/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrent.png
Phil. (12:25:05) :
Your alarmism makes you more irrelevant all the time. You are not even faking fairness.
R. Gates (15:24:22) :
Happy about Earth Day? This reveals more about you than your comments. You in the closet. Why not just come on out. Are you a member of Greenpeace? Or some other extreme environmental organization?
charles Wilson (20:14:18) :
Projecting melt proportional to the El Nino rating doesn’t fit the history well (especially in 1998!) The big reductions come when the Beaufort gyre pushes a lot of ice out along the east coast of Greenland. That happened less than average recently (though we could still get a big push this summer). We’ll know soon enough if you’re right.
Meanwhile, the 11pm JAXA updates shows almost no ice decrease from yesterday.
04,21,2010,13673125
04,22,2010,13669219
The plot now has this year’s extent breaking away from previous years.
Charles Wilson, step away from the midnight onion, pickle and mustard midnight sandwich with an icecream sundae chaser. Your nightmare generator is in overdrive.
R. Gates (15:24:22) :
Why would anyone be happy about something that is to be observed on Lenin’s birthday? Some will immediately say that’s just a coincidence. But who would believe that? If nothing else, those who ‘care’ about Earth Day should get the date moved if it is a coincidence so it can never be said it’s observed on Lenin’s birthday. But it is not a coincidence. Lenin was part of the radical left of politics. Earth Day is from the radical left of politics.
Are you a Marxist R. Gates?
Anu (20:18:12) :
Isn’t it convenient for you to chose 1980 as a starting point when the ‘coming ice age’ scare was ending? The earth started warming naturally in 1980 causing the trend in the graph you presented.
You can ALWAYS be counted on to cherry pick.
But I can tell you don’t really know what you are talking about.
.
BTW, how did you celebrate Lenin’s birthday today? Did you break a few eggs to make an omelet?
Just as I predicted, Charles Wilson has come up with “unless someone puts up some SO2 to cool things”, etc., etc. blah blah…
When the ice recovers to new 30 year highs, this will be the mantra: “The volcanoes saved us for a little while”, but “listen to Al Gore for his predictions of the blazing inferno the next couple hundred years or so.” And the “hurricanes, sunstroke, syphilis and varicose veins.”
No ice to see here folks, move along, look at the crazy monkey!…
Emperor’s New Clothes.
The believers/trolls are sounding more desperate all the time. Maybe it’s part of that Monboit “fight back” thingy.
bubbagyro (21:04:33) :
And the “hurricanes, sunstroke, syphilis and varicose veins.”
you forgot cannibalism