Earth gives us an Earth Day present: Arctic sea ice is highest for this date in 8 years

You gotta love it when the Earth gives back the love, especially today.

http://blog.usa.gov/roller/govgab/resource/images/earth%20day.jpg

Those who have been following NSIDC and JAXA sea ice plots have noted that this has been an extraordinary year so far, with Arctic sea ice hitting the “normal” line on some datasets. Today the Earth gave back more for us.

As of today, JAXA shows that we have more ice than any time on this date for the past 8 years of Aqua satellite measurement for this AMSRE dataset. Yes, it isn’t much, but if this were September, and the sea ice minimum was down by this much compared to all other years, you can bet your sweet bippy we’d see it screamed in news headlines worldwide.

Of course some will argue that it “doesn’t matter” in the context of trend, or that it’s just a “weather” blip. Let us remind our friends of such blips the next time a heat wave or a storm is cited as proof of global warming.

What can be said about the short term trend in Arctic sea ice is that for the past two years, it has recovered from the historic low of 2007. It recovered in 2008, and more in 2009. If today’s Earth Day gift is any indication, it appears that it is on track now for a third year of recovery in 2010 as we’ve been saying at WUWT since fall of 2009.

I’d show NSIDC’s current Arctic Sea Ice graph also, but their website was down earlier today, and the current sea ice graph is not updated. But Steve Goddard has made some comparison overlays that are interesting.

He writes via email:

NSIDC’s web site is down today, but I overlaid DMI on top of the NSIDC graph and it should have hit the mean line today. Same story for JAXA.  Images are below.

DMI uses 30% concentration, so their scale is lower than NSIDC and JAXA at 15%.  I shifted the DMI data upwards and stretched vertically to visually match the NISDC data.

NSIDC versus DMI Arctic sea ice extent

The second image is JAXA, DMI and NSIDC together.  JAXA also needed to be shifted vertically as they apparently use a different algorithm for calculating extent than NSIDC.   All three track each other fairly closely during the spring,  DMI diverges from the others during the fall freeze up  – probably because of the higher concentration requirements.

NSIDC versus JAXA and DMI Arctic sea ice extent

Blue is NSIDC.  Green is JAXA.  Black is DMI.  The thick black line is the NSIDC mean. The dashed line is the 2007 historic low.

ADDED: Here is a wider view that shows that the three time series match closely over the interval of the NSIDC graph

NSIDC vs JAXA 4_22_2010 wideview

======================

Happy Earth Day everybody!

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Scott Covert

This is a non-issue and no victory but I understand why you have posted it.
You are giving the finger pointers more things to point at.
I wish good science was good enough.

H.R.

Not only a good present for Earth Day but a nice way to celebrate Lenin’s birthday.
I’m sure the polar bears are partying down!

cloud10

Earth Day – Lenin’s Birthday – which tells us something of what this is all about.
I am not sure Trotsky would have “picked” the Ice Story as a birthday present for him though.

kadaka

Yay! Earth Day was a stunning success, the Arctic is recovering, the planet has been saved!
Okay, job’s done, everyone can go home. You too, Greenpeace, move along now.

enneagram

The sun back to quiet times and the Nina coming back. Bad forecast for next november’s carnal pleasures climate jamboree.

George E. Smith

Well I just posted the same observation down on another thread; what a great way to celebrate Comrade Lenin’s birthday.
But considering the September minimum of 2007; by all accounts it was a freak event where a storm blew all that ice out of the Arctic ocean to where it could readily melt leaving an anomalous great void in the Arctic Ocean. If the absorbed solar insolation in all that open water resulted in a bit of a warming surface, that could have slowed the regrowth; but once it started, my recollection was that the regrowth rate was very rapid in 2008.
So is it reasonable to argue that 2008/2009, were just a retrace to a more normal condition that the freak 2007 event upset, and possibly, depending what happens this september; we might start to see what the longer term trend really is; and if I follow, what a lot of folks post here; that might include some coninuation of what has been recent thinning, and lessenign of multi-year ice.

enneagram

Earth Day!, green policies, fight against natural polution, at the cost of changing it to lost of freedom, end of democracy and welcoming a brave new world government. Bravo!, what a big deal: Political pollution in exchange of natural pollution.

R. de Haan
Tiles

Cloud10
“I am not sure Trotsky would have “picked” the Ice Story as a birthday present for him though.”
Oh, very droll!

jorgekafkazar

What? No tipping point?

Andrew30

“Of course some will argue that it “doesn’t matter”
So a 75 day 1,500,000 square kilometer average 9 year record low in 2007 means something significant in the history of the planet but a 21 day 2,000,000 square kilometer 9 year record high in 2010 is not-significant.
A three year down tend for 2004 to 2007 (net loss about 1,200,000 square kilometers) means something significant in the history of the planet but a 2 year upward trend for 2007 – 2009 (net gain of 1,200,000 square kilometers, (same as the loss but in less time)) is not-significant.
Cherry picking is where people take a small amount of data from 2007 and use a 10 year old 30 year average that fits their argument, use it like it means something significant.

Jakers

Nice to look at the conditions from satellite
http://ice-map.appspot.com/
I did not know U.S. Senator Gaylord Nelson was a commie though…

Climate scientist sues newspaper for ‘poisoning’ global warming debate
Climate modeller Andrew Weaver launches libel action in Canada for publishing ‘grossly irresponsible falsehoods’
One of the world’s leading climate scientists has launched a libel lawsuit against a Canadian newspaper for publishing articles that he says “poison” the debate on global warming.
In a case with potentially huge consequences for online publishers, lawyers acting for Andrew Weaver, a climate modeller at the University of Victoria, Canada, have demanded the National Post removes the articles not only from its own websites, but also from the numerous blogs and sites where they were reposted.

Scott

“that this has been an extraordinary year so far, with Arctic sea ice hitting the ‘normal’ line”
Seems like an oxymoron to me…extraordinary by being normal? I guess Katrina et al were extraordinary/normal storms, so this fits in with typical climate commentary. Of course, avid warmists probably do consider it extraordinary given that the Arctic is supposed to be ice-free here in 3+ years.
One thing that might be extraordinary in regards to this is the lateness of the Arctic ice peak.
-Scott

Climate scientist sues newspaper for ‘poisoning’ global warming debate
Climate modeller Andrew Weaver launches libel action in Canada for publishing ‘grossly irresponsible falsehoods’
One of the world’s leading climate scientists has launched a libel lawsuit against a Canadian newspaper for publishing articles that he says “poison” the debate on global warming.
In a case with potentially huge consequences for online publishers, lawyers acting for Andrew Weaver, a climate modeller at the University of Victoria, Canada, have demanded the National Post removes the articles not only from its own websites, but also from the numerous blogs and sites where they were reposted.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/22/climate-change-libel-action-canada-national-post

RockyRoad

I won’t believe it until you computer model it. And make sure your model uses a flat earth, too.

cotwome

Happy Earth Day everybody!
Don’t forget to let your kids watch the SpongeBob SquarePants Earth Day Special tonight!
http://www.nick.com/games/spongebob-squarepants-spongebobs-jellyfishin-mission.html

Thanks, Anthony! Statistically speaking, when the line is well within the one standard deviation area of the graph, it is, for all essential purposes, touching or exceeding the mean ice extent.
Still, it is nice to watch the squiggly lines go up and up! Happy Lenin’s Birthday, errrr, Earth Day to y’all!!

Curiousgeorge

But, but, doesn’t this mean that all that water locked up at the poles is depriving some desert tribe in N. Africa of badly needed water? Must you rub it in? Have you no heart? 😉

geo

I haven’t seen anything yet to move me off of 6.0-6.2M km2 for minimum.
My next major checkpoint is July 1-July 15. I think that’s where the increase in multi-year ice over last year will begin to create significant positive separation from 2009.

Scott (11:16:03) :
I thought the Arctic was supposed to be ice free by 2008
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/01/content_7696460.htm

OSLO, Feb. 29 (Xinhua) — The polar cap in the Arctic may well disappear this summer due to the global warming, Dr. Olav Orheim, head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat, said on Friday.

rb Wright

For Earth Day, the normally rational Weather Channel is now showing an alarmist Global Warming program, describing giant dust storms ruining Las Vegas, water shortages world wide, soaring temperatures everywhere, with a spooky voice over. There was no bulletin indicating that this was a science fiction program.
Sent a brief e-mail to their website, complaining of the program content.

George E. Smith

As it turns out I have a couple of “trees” in my back yard; which are just not putting out enough Oxygen to earn their keep, and I also have a very nice and noisy Chain saw. So when I get home tonight, I am going to slaughter those two trees in the interest of some dendrochronology. And then I am going to whack them up pretty good, so nobody is going to accuse me of Nyquist Violations on this exercise.
I can’t think of a better way to celebrate. Well I am wearing my Green Frog Hair Hat today; it’s the frog that’s green, not the hat. Well actually the frog is green and yellow.
Speaking of yellow, my new Physical Chemistry book has a problem question asking how many yellow photons a 100 Watt lamp emits in 1 second at 100% efficiency. Well they said yellow; but the wavelength they give is 560 nm ;which isn’t yellow in any color chart I’ve ever seen; it’s a pretty ordinary grellow; but I would look more at 580-585 if I was looking for a yellow photon. I guess some academics never do go out into the real world. The “yellow” part of the visible spectrum, is the narrowest in terms of the range of wavelengths that the eye perceives as a particular color; no more than 5 nm wide. between grellow and amber.

Not only is there more Arctic ice today than in past years, the ice is also thicker.
Thicker ice melts more slowly.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=04&fd=18&fy=1980&sm=04&sd=18&sy=2010

Jimbo

“One of the world’s leading climate scientists has launched a libel lawsuit…”
“…lawyers acting for Andrew Weaver, a climate modeller at the University of Victoria, Canada, have demanded the National Post removes the articles not only from its own websites, but also from the numerous blogs and sites where they were reposted.”
“…including prominent climate-sceptic sites Climate Audit and Watts Up With That.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/22/climate-change-libel-action-canada-national-post

Jimbo

I whold have mentioned OT but relevant for WUWT

Henry chance

Sorry. I do not believe this without a tree ring to confirm it.

AEGeneral

As long as the earth is handing out presents, guess I’ll buy it a cake….topped with a lot of “icing.”
*ducks*

Erik

Happy Earth Day!
Mr. Bastardi is a bit puzzled about the Ice:
“So all this ice is surprising because THERE SHOULD BE LESS, NOT MORE, using natural drivers as the prime reason for the expansion and contraction of the northern ice sheets”
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather
Mr. Bastardi is allways a good read – Ciao!

DirkH

” Mike Haseler (11:16:17) :
[…]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/22/climate-change-libel-action-canada-national-post
“Weaver is suing for libel three writers at the newspaper, as well as the newspaper as a whole and several, as-yet unknown, posters on the paper’s online comment section.”
Warmists start to sue blog commenters. Gloves are off.

Roger Knights

it appears that it is on track now for a third year of recovery in 2010 as we’ve been saying at WUWT since fall of 2009.

It’s now possible to bet on whether this year’s minimum arctic ice extent will be greater than last years. The rules are given here, with a link to the bet:
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/4474.page

Ian W

How long before we are told that the increase in Arctic ice _proves_ anthropogenic global warming and it was forecast in the AGW models?

Great comments, today is definitely a great day

MinB

I posted this on a different thread, but might be of interest here:
From IJIS http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm:
“The black dot seen at the North Pole is an area lacking data where AMSR-E cannot observe the Earth’s surface… Please note that this area is also counted as sea-ice cover in our estimation of sea-ice extent. We may change the policy (i.e., filling the gap with full coverage of sea ice) in the near future due to the recent drastic reduction of Arctic sea ice. We will announce this if it is implemented.”
I just noticed this comment and am not sure if it’s a recent change or not. Suspicious if it is.

BenS

Question: How was the “normal” line established? and, who established the line?
Ben

Pops

Scott Covert (10:58:56) : “This is a non-issue and no victory but I understand why you have posted it.”
I think we could guarantee that it would be a ‘huge’ issue and a ‘victory’ if the ice was anywhere near a nine-year low. Such news would be heralded by the MSM.

Rick

This is terrible! How can we convince people that global warming is real when the stupid environment won’t cooperate??

John from CA

Mike Haseler (11:16:17) :
There isn’t any way he can win this suit, the models simply aren’t provable and therefore the claims are hearsay and thus accurate.
He must be out of his mind or likes throwing away money.

son of mulder

They are clearly hiding a decline.

John from CA

LOL – make that “and thus inaccurate.”

toby

So there has been a “regression to the mean value”. Over the long run, it is the number of extremes and the number of regressions that count.
So this proves squat, and these data tells us nothing.

Scott (11:16:03) :
“that this has been an extraordinary year so far, with Arctic sea ice hitting the ‘normal’ line”
Seems like an oxymoron to me…extraordinary by being normal? I guess Katrina et al were extraordinary/normal storms, so this fits in with typical climate commentary. Of course, avid warmists probably do consider it extraordinary given that the Arctic is supposed to be ice-free here in 3+ years.
One thing that might be extraordinary in regards to this is the lateness of the Arctic ice peak.

To be accurate about it Arctic sea ice extent is high compared with the last 9 years. The sea ice area is not nor was its maximum late. Taken together these facts indicate spreading of the sea ice more than normal. I consider that interesting, similar to what happened in summer 07.

Ack

Alarmists tell us that the sea is rising because of the melting polar ice, so using their “science” shouldn’t sea levels be declining?

björn

Thats good news, I guess, at leas for the people who worry alot abot polar bears, rising sea etc. If it wasnt for the internet and blogs like this excellent blog, I would never have known, this is truly a democrcy revolution, Al Gore’s internet invention.
Swedish media refuses to publish storys like this, pubclic service media, (swedish bbc)-SVT is on a huge drive for climate alarmism, they are building up for something, I do not know what.
http://svt.se/2.108068/1.1955993/forkrossande_majoritet_enig_om_klimatforandringarna
My translation “Devastating majority in agreement of Climate change.
Over 97 of swedish scientists working in the field of climate research agree that man is proven to be responsible for the global warming.”
This according to a poll they made that is so ridiculous that I am ashamed to describe it. It also says 90% has faith in the IPCC.
http://svt.se/2.108068/1.1966830/marginellt_vetenskapligt_stod_for_klimatskeptiker?lid=puff_1966993&lpos=lasmer
Then they make another “study”. “Scientific support of climate scepticism is poor”.
Only five (5) of 8000 climate research related articles, peer reviewed 2009-2010 support scepticism of man causing the global warming. They have contacted an expert, Naomi Oreskes who helped them analyse their findings.

The troublesome thing here is that the SVT is very prestisious and well regarded for its neutrality in (other) political agendas and reports like this, in national newscasts, really make an impact on people who do not actively seek information elsewhere.

Sorry didnt mean to start ranting about it, bu I want you guys in other countries to look out, because the conspiracyguy in me is telling me something is staged.
Why this massiva campaigne?

Other than that, the weather is nice, bit cold but beatiful sunshine.

Dusty

“As of today, JAXA shows that we have more ice than any time on this date for the past 9 years of Aqua satellite measurement for this AMSRE dataset. Yes, it isn’t much, but if this were September, and the sea ice minimum was down by this much compared to all other years, you can bet your sweet bippy we’d see it screamed in news headlines worldwide.”
——
Anthony, I’ve been comparing the daily numbers to 2003 since your post [Visualizing Changes …] on April 12th using the downloadable data, and there has been more ice than anytime in the last 9 years since that date (2008 doesn’t beat 2003 in that time period). The largest difference in that time period was about 291k sq km. Today’s is about 280k sq km.
REPLY:I’m not surprised, it seems clear from the graph, but I was focusing on today. -A

björn

It should say “over 97%” above, darn.

pat

happy earth day skeptics:
AFP: Shafiq Alam: Challenge to IPCC’s Bangladesh climate predictions
Scientists in Bangladesh posed a fresh challenge to the UN’s top climate change panel Thursday, saying its doomsday forecasts for the country in the body’s landmark 2007 report were overblown…
IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri defended his organisation’s Bangladesh predictions Thursday, warning that “on the basis of one study one cannot jump to conclusions.”
“The IPCC looks at a range of publications before we take a balanced view on what’s likely to happen,” he told AFP by telephone.
But IPCC’s prediction did not take into account the one billion tonnes of sediment carried by Himalayan rivers into Bangladesh every year, which are crucial in countering rises in sea levels, the study funded by the Asian Development Bank said…
“Sediments have been shaping Bangladesh’s coast for thousands of years,” said Maminul Haque Sarker, director of the Dhaka-based Center for Environment and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), who led research for the study…
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jxWAlO7hpr2AXkrZMWswKyK39gOA

DirkH

” John from CA (12:16:23) :
Mike Haseler (11:16:17) :
There isn’t any way he can win this suit,”
I don’t think he can win against the newspaper but he might be able to win libel suits against some hotblooded commenters. This together with Dr.Mann’s legal fight against M4GW indicates that a new phase has begun. AGW money can finance a lot of lawsuits. Keep your tongue in check everyone.

Snowy

The [gd] Weather Channel at around 3-4 pm showed a program that was called “Future Earth” and showed useless propaganda about “Arctic in death spiral.” The fools failed to reconcile, that Arctic ice has highest in almost a decade, and that the world was cooling. Poor Stu Ostro is so confused, that I had to enlighten him with many of my comments! You can see my enlightening comments to poor old confused Stu here: http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_21489.html?from=blog_comment_mainindex#comment
I am Getting Cold, FYI.