From Dr. Roger Pielke Senior’s Climate Sci blog, a discussion on the “missing heat” in Earth’s climate system gives me a motivation to write some silly prose:
The heat is gone, oh where, oh where?
Maybe in the oceans?
Maybe in the air?
It’s just not there.
They could not find it any-where.
Is There “Missing” Heat In The Climate System? My Comments On This NCAR Press Release
There was a remarkable press release 0n April 15 from the NCAR/UCAR Media Relations titled
“Missing” heat may affect future climate change
The article starts with the text
BOULDER—Current observational tools cannot account for roughly half of the heat that is believed to have built up on Earth in recent years, according to a “Perspectives” article in this week’s issue of Science. Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) warn in the new study that satellite sensors, ocean floats, and other instruments are inadequate to track this “missing” heat, which may be building up in the deep oceans or elsewhere in the climate system.
“The heat will come back to haunt us sooner or later,” says NCAR scientist Kevin Trenberth, the lead author. “The reprieve we’ve had from warming temperatures in the last few years will not continue. It is critical to track the build-up of energy in our climate system so we can understand what is happening and predict our future climate.”
Excerpts from the press release reads
“Either the satellite observations are incorrect, says Trenberth, or, more likely, large amounts of heat are penetrating to regions that are not adequately measured, such as the deepest parts of the oceans. Compounding the problem, Earth’s surface temperatures have largely leveled off in recent years. Yet melting glaciers and Arctic sea ice, along with rising sea levels, indicate that heat is continuing to have profound effects on the planet.”
“A percentage of the missing heat could be illusory, the result of imprecise measurements by satellites and surface sensors or incorrect processing of data from those sensors, the authors say. Until 2003, the measured heat increase was consistent with computer model expectations. But a new set of ocean monitors since then has shown a steady decrease in the rate of oceanic heating, even as the satellite-measured imbalance between incoming and outgoing energy continues to grow.”
Some of the missing heat appears to be going into the observed melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, as well as Arctic sea ice, the authors say.
Much of the missing heat may be in the ocean. Some heat increase can be detected between depths of 3,000 and 6,500 feet (about 1,000 to 2,000 meters), but more heat may be deeper still beyond the reach of ocean sensors.”
Trenberth’s [and co-author, NCAR scientist John Fasullo], however, are grasping for an explanation other than the actual real world implication of the absence of this heat.
- First, if the heat was being sequestered deeper in the ocean (lower than about 700m), than we would have seen it transit through the upper ocean where the data coverage has been good since at least 2005. The other reservoirs where heat could be stored are closely monitored as well (e.g. continental ice) as well as being relatively small in comparison with the ocean.
- Second, the melting of glaciers and continental ice can be only a very small component of the heat change (e.g. see Table 1 in Levitus et al 2001 “Anthropogenic warming of Earth’s climate system”. Science).
Thus, a large amount heat (measured as Joules) does not appear to be stored anywhere; it just is not there.
There is no “heat in the pipeline” [or “unrealized heat”] as I have discussed most recently in my post
Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo are not recognizing that the diagnosis of upper ocean heat content changes (with it large mass) makes in an effective integrator of long term radiative imbalances of the climate system as I discussed in my papers
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system. Physics Today, 61, Vol. 11, 54-55.
http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/r-334.pdf
and
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2003: Heat storage within the Earth system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 331-335.
http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/r-247.pdf.
The assessment of ocean heat storage changes in Joules is a much more robust methodology to assess global warming than the use of small changes in the satellite diagnosis of radiative forcing from the satellites which have uncertainties of at least the same order. Trenberth and Fasullo need to look more critically at the satellite data as well as propose how heat in Joules could be transported deep into the ocean without being seen.
I am contacting Kevin to see if he would respond to my comments on this news article (and his Science perspective) in a guest post on my weblog.
UPDATE (April 16 2010) WITH RESPONSE BY KEVIN TRENBERTH PRESENTED WITH HIS PERMISSION
Dear Roger
I do not agree with your comments. We are well aware that there are well over a dozen estimates of ocean heat content and they are all different yet based on the same data. There are clearly problems in the analysis phase and I don’t believe any are correct. There is a nice analysis of ocean heat content down to 2000 m by von Schuckmann, K., F. Gaillard, and P.-Y. Le Traon 2009: Global hydrographic variability patterns during 2003–2008, /J. Geophys. Res.,/ *114*, C09007, doi:10.1029/2008JC005237. but even those estimates are likely conservative. The deep ocean is not
well monitored and nor is the Arctic below sea ice. That said, there is a paper in press (embargoed) that performs an error analysis of ocean heat content.
Our article highlights the discrepancies that should be resolved with better data and analysis, and improved observations must play a key role.
Kevin
MY REPLY
Hi Kevin
Thank you for your response. I am aware of the debate on the quality of the ocean data, and have blogged on the von Schuckman et al paper. Since 2005, however, the data from 700m to the surface seems robust spatially (except under the arctic sea ice as you note). An example of the coming to agreement among the studies is Figure 2 in
Leuliette, E. W., and L. Miller (2009), Closing the sea level rise budget with altimetry, Argo, and GRACE, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04608, doi:10.1029/2008GL036010.
We both agree on the need for further data and better analyses. I have posted on this issue; e.g. see
However, I do not see how such large amounts of heat could have transited to depths below 700m since 2005 without being detected.
I am very supportive, however, of your recognition that it is heat in Joules that we should be monitoring as a primary metric to monitor global warming. Our research has shown significant biases in the use of the global average surface temperature for this purpose; e.g.
Pielke Sr., R.A., C. Davey, D. Niyogi, S. Fall, J. Steinweg-Woods, K. Hubbard, X. Lin, M. Cai, Y.-K. Lim, H. Li, J. Nielsen-Gammon, K. Gallo, R. Hale, R. Mahmood, S. Foster, R.T. McNider, and P. Blanken, 2007: Unresolved issues with the assessment of multi-decadal global land surface temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S08, doi:10.1029/2006JD008229. http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/r-321.pdf
Klotzbach, P.J., R.A. Pielke Sr., R.A. Pielke Jr., J.R. Christy, and R.T. McNider, 2009: An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 114,
D21102, doi:10.1029/2009JD011841. http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/r-345.pdf
Would you permit me to post your reply below along with my response on my weblog.
Best Regards
Roger
KEVIN’S FURTHER REPLY
Roger you may post my comments. The V.s paper shows quite a lot of heat below 700 m.
Kevin
MY FURTHER RESPONSE
Hi Kevin
Thanks! On the V.s et al paper, lets assume their values since 2005 deeper than 700m are correct [which I question since I agree with you on the data quality and coverage at the deeper depths]. However, if they are correct, how much of this heat explains the “missing” heat?
It would be useful (actually quite so) if you would provide what is the missing heat in Joules.
Roger
END OF UPDATE
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‘Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo are not recognizing’
They appear not to accept that mother earth heats the oceans from within, i.e. that the oceans heat from below. Christ none of these hobnobs know where all the heat comes from in details, and that’s why their cute, but useless, models suck so bad.
Easy, as Kevin Trenberth inadvertently revealed a couple of years ago in the famous NPR interview, maybe it’s been radiated back out to space.
Get back here, right now Heat; we need you. You can go play later.
=================
[quote George E. Smith (15:55:01) :]
So if it is missing; as in not there; why is there a belief that it exists.
{/quote]
It shows up in the satellites. The amount of missing heat, according to the CERES satellite, is more than 6 times the current estimated effect of global warming.
This would apparently be part of their “return with a vengeance” meme.
I suppose it is nice to see it explained at greater length than an alarmist sound-bite, so thanks for that.
The heat has to be there, their models prove it. But they can’t find it.
We already had ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy – somewhere in the universe.
Now we can add ‘dark heat’ – somewhere on earth.
Joule thieves! Best left to Interpol then..
What else could it be, the models are never wrong?
Call it dark heat and hit the Gong.
Check the instruments? They’re ‘out there’ drifting along with the calibration electronics. Can’t get to them.
Launch the backup or hit the Reset button.
You cannot measure that which does not exist, and the search for the missing heat is a snipe hunt caught in an infinite loop.
Press ctrl-C to Exit.
A climate scientist called Trenberth,
Measure the temperature of Earth.
We know the Sun’s shone,
But where’s all the heat gone?
Perhaps we’ll find it in Perth!
I believe the excess joules have transited the earth’s crust and superheated the magma. Perhaps to millions of degrees c.
This “global warming” has resulted in superheated magma which is now boiling though thin spots in Iceland, you may call them Volcanoes.
The volcanic ash plume resulting in Iceland has caused the grounding of all commercial flights in Europe.
Truly, Global Warming IN ACTION. What more proof do you need? A Tsunami?
A classic example of Models (square peg) vs. Actual Climate (round hole).
Something is amiss regarding warming theories that don’t follow thermodynamic principles.
Maybe Trenberth should count to 10 and yell, “Ready or not – here we come.”
Henry chance (15:01:26) : “I read this yesterday. So funny. Trenberth seems confused again.”
We need more confused scientists who will admit they’re confused, instead of claiming they know everything. I think Dr. Trenberth is somewhat of a realist and is therefore on the plus side of the ledger.
Missing heat = Found Funding
Grant (16:22:19)–
Joule thieves huh? Check the hockey stick players. Ottawa 1 Pittsburgh 1 in the 1st period.
I would like to thank Kevin Trenberth for pointing out the 1st truth that any empirical scientist learns the hard way. Don’t start talking about data being wrong and not fitting your theory if you haven’t even bothered to characterise the mechanisms behind your theory in the first place. Saying there has to be heat when you can’t even show measurements of the basic driver of your theory or from verified principles that there should be heat, should force one to pause. Not start throwing the toys out of the pram. When I was an eleven year-old cheeky brat on holiday in Australia with my family, my mum bought me a keyring at a market one day, to subtley make her point that I was being a cheeky wee so and so and know it all. It said:
“Be sure brain is in gear before engaging mouth”
It is certainly a multi-layered phrase
Kevin and the case of the missing joules.
Absent minded professor Jones misplaced many years of temperature records.
Kevin may just be posturing. Now he goes and gets a 13 million dollar gubment grant and looks for the joule thief. He can make some big bucks if he can position this as a scary tipping point and if we don’t find the Joules quickly, we are all toast.
If nature is acting different than a model, then the model is wrong.
Trash it, folks.
Stop selling it as “perfect” and only some heat is hidden somewhere you don’t remember. People are not that stupid.
Thank you for making this obvious, Prof. Pielke Sr.
“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and
it is a travesty that we can’t.” Trenberth to Mann, ClimateGate email:
http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=1048
…I never did understand the use of “travesty,” except that it blows their cover as advocates and not scientists. Idiots.
Anthony, I take it the guy’s do not know the significance of currents that move heat around and the absence of this heat means some very nasty weather can be born from warm air and cold water.
Salt being a crystal plays a very significant role in how deep solar penetration of heat can go. Also too much salt can effect evaporation cycles.
“The heat will come back to haunt us sooner or later,” says Kevin Trenberth. Maybe the heat is meditating, or has gone to the bathroom, or is away on a journey, or perhaps it is asleep and must be aroused.
It can only be ‘missing’ if it was there in the first place. Here’s the classic account of trying to invoke something absent to generate a source of heat from the sky, and the mockery it drew around 2850 years ago:
‘And they took the bull that was given them, and they prepared it and called upon the name of Baal from morning until noon, saying, “O Baal, answer us!” But there was no voice, and no one answered. And they limped around the altar that they had made. And at noon Elijah mocked them, saying, “Cry aloud, for he is a god. Either he is musing, or he is relieving himself, or he is on a journey, or perhaps he is asleep and must be awakened.” And they cried aloud and cut themselves after their custom with swords and lances, until the blood gushed out upon them. And as midday passed, they raved on until the time of the offering of the oblation, but there was no voice. No one answered; no one paid attention.’ 1 Kings 18:26-29 (ESV).
They just put a more modern gloss on it these days.
old construction worker (15:16:58) :
“Have they looked in space yet?”
I thought that’s how most of them did their work.
♪♪♪
Let the sunshine
Let the sunshine in
The sunshine in
Let the sunshine
Let the sunshine in
The sunshine in
Let the sunshine
Let the sunshine in
The sun shine in…
♪♪♪
It´s the sun stupid!
Guess who said this?
“the fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a
travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.”
Right, it was Kevin Trenberth in his now famous email to M. Mann, Phil Jones, Gavin Schmidt, James Hansen, etc., etc. on October 12, 2009, which was incidentally, my ex-wife’s birthday.
It would appear he has been looking for missing heat for months, and I find it hard to believe that none of his cohorts have been of any help.
I think it’s a travesty!!
what a travesty, these jokers cannot even be called scientists. i am sorry.
i gave up on academia a very long time ago because i could not tolerate the peer-and-dollar forced group think. but this is just over the top incredulous.
epicycles indeed- at least they were supposed to explain the evidence, not deny it.
I think it’s pretty obvious that there is a conspiracy among the red neck deniers to steal the heat and store it in their basements, garages and outhouses just so that they can continue to drive their SUVs and rape the earth.