Guest Post by Steven Goddard
Steve McIntyre points out that NOAA’s Susan Solomon saw fit to exclude a statement of measurements from IPCC WG1. With such certainty then, it’s no wonder she’s certain that our current situation is “irreversible”. Well then, let’s not worry about it if one of NOAA’s lead scientists says the effects are well nigh irreversible. What she’s serving up is pure alarmism.
NOAA has issued a warning to the occupants of (some) planet :
Global warming has reached the point of no return, a study published in the Tuesday edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by a joint team of the U.S., French and Swiss researchers concludes. Even if the world reduces emissions of CO2 to the level before the industrial revolution, it will take at least 1,000 years to reverse the climate change effect that have already taken hold, AP on Sunday quoted the team as saying. Dr. Susan Solomon of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Earth System Research laboratory led the study. “People have imagined that if we stopped emitting carbon dioxide the climate would go back to normal in 100 years, 200 years; that’s not true,” she said, adding the effects are well nigh irreversible.
That got me wondering what she meant by “back to normal.” Perhaps it means sea ice at normal levels? No that can’t be it, because sea ice area has already recovered to “normal.”
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png
Perhaps she means violent weather, like strong tornadoes? Longing for a return to the 1970s, when there were lots more of them?
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/tornado/tornadotrend.jpg
In 1908, a hurricane formed on March 6, the earliest on record. Ah, for the good old days of early spring hurricanes…..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1908_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png
In 1954, Hurricane Alice formed on December 30, the latest on record. Nothing like a New Year’s hurricane to brighten up the holidays.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1954_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png
In 1961, Hurricane Carla made landfall in Texas. It was the most intense hurricane to ever hit the US.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Carla
In 1900, a hurricane killed 8.000 people in Galveston, Texas.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galveston_Hurricane
In 1780, a hurricane killed more than 27,500 people in the Carribean.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Hurricane_of_1780
In 1960, 60% of the farmland in China received no rain. Somewhere between 20 and 43 million people died due to extreme weather and mismanagement by the socialist government.
In the 1930s, the US suffered extreme heat and drought, resulting in the dust bowl. It was the warmest decade on record in the US (at least before USHCN cleverly adjusted it downwards.)
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_07/fig1x.gif
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_bowl
Let’s see — I can remember the good ol’ thirties when the dust bowl drove all those poor Okies out to La-La Land in their rickety Model T’s. I even remember the only place we kids could cool off was the local air-cooled cinema with its ten-cent matinee where they showed those new-fangled talkies on a scorching Saturday afternoon in July.
But I’m not quite old enough to remember the Wolf, or the Sporer or the Maunder, or the Dalton minimums — (or is minimae?) — or even the miserable weather after that infamous meteor killed off all the dinosaurs.
Is that the kind of good old-fashioned weather those brilliant infant-scientists say we can’t bring back? Well, thank goodness — they may be right!
The German edition of the Financial Times has revealed that the EU buried an internal study showing damning results on biodiesel. Unfortunately I couldn’t find an English version, and so wrote a summary blurb about it here:
http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/04/13/eu-buried-devastating-biodiesel-report/
They knew it was bad, and so they buried it!
GOOD!
Now there’s no reason to bother w/ destroying the economy or our present way of life.
Since we’re all damned anyway, I vote for: Live for the here and now and enjoy it while it lasts.
John (12:36:38) wrote:
For Steve Goddard (12:04:05):
Steve, I see what you have posted there, but it seems to conflict with the information in the Wikepedia link Hurricane Carla.
———-
Wiki? Well, this might have something to do with it…
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2009/12/19/lawrence-solomon-wikipedia-s-climate-doctor.aspx
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2009/12/23/lawrence-solomon-wikipedia-s-hockey-stick-wars.aspx
And what jfd (12:46:51) wrote probably does too. That seems to mean that with different ways to measure hurricane intensity, the gang has still more options to create still more convenient comparisons.
The bottom line seems pretty clear. The catastrophic increase in hurricane number and intensity just hasn’t worked out as hoped by the gang.
Back to normal would be an ice age with glaciers reaching into the deep south. That has the been normal far longer than this interglacial period.
Ms. Soloman is playing the BIG LIE card.
Lie often enough, outrageous enough, and people will start to believe you.
(The thinking goes: “How could they lie to us so much? They must be telling the truth.”)
No, they are repeatedly lying with increasing magnitude — once on this course there is no turning back, they must keep lying (always hoping to swing the gullible) until they are stopped or rejected by the vast majority of the populace.
Joseph Goebbels, propaganda minister for the Nazi’s, explained and perfected this propaganda method.
What’s the rush? (These “crisis” kants are to spur legislative action.)
Well, the more time that passes (without strong warming, yet increasing CO2) puts the lie to the whole ediface — they have to gin up a “crisis” fever to get their controls in place — while they still can — sure in the knowledge that once in place, these controls can never be removed.
That supposed “scientists” like Soloman are willing to engage in such outrageous lying should tell you there is a portion of “scientists” that are no scientists at all, but are merely functionaries of the ‘scientific-technological elite’, who want to get control and power.
For you who think this concern is just Evans’ ranting:
No, on the contrary this comes from somebody who had intimate knowledge of the threat and cared so much about the Nation that he devoted his Farewell Address to this and other threats:
“The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.
Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.” — Dwight D. Eisenhower, 34th President of the United States of America.
http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/ike.htm
Isn’t this exactly what is happening right now with regards to the federal government and many bodies of the scientific establishment and the supposed threat of Man-made global warming?
And, there are represenitives of this scientific-elite in many places in society, including a few who run around this website, repeatedly defending the ‘scientific-elite’ version of Science.
The AGW hoax (if we win and destroy it) may be a blessing in disguise if it, in turn, leads to the exposure of this corrupt ‘scientific-elite’ who suck the tit of public tax dollars, and, in turn, want to gain power and control, either more securely over the current tax dollars they get or want even more tax dollars and control.
At its core it’s an evil bunch that have no regard for the rest of humanity (yet as is quite typical claim their grasping for power is to save humanity).
PS, check out the image on the menu board behind the guy serving. Looks very much like an image of the Earth on fire. Is that Anthony’s photoshop wizardry or just a strange coincidence?
REPLY: It’s GIMP – Anthony
Whew! Thank goodness for that!
We don’t need the IPCC anymore, or Ms Solomon.
All Gory is wasting his time with carbon scams. The game is up.
We can stop holding our breath, it won’t make any difference.
What a relief, back to normal with stupid alarmism.
The truly outrageous part:
Our tax dollars are PAYING for this kind of ”wisdom” (NOT) of Solomon.
I want my money back !!!!
Algore took a Sat picture of a counter rotating hurricane.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/19/not-finding-any-gore-airbrushes-in-hurricanes-for-his-new-book/
Looks like Solomon doesn’t have the power or faith Algore has.
They are reversible. We have pictures.
@johnythelowery (11:42:16) :
Actually: I think the leadership of AL is commendable and we should all Build a 6,000 Sq. Ft House, drive fleets of Escalades every where you go and get ourselves a couple of private aircraft each.
– – – – – – –
Don’t forget that part of Reverend Al’s formula is to pay carbon offsets to atone for his sins.
“Ben Kellett (12:02:54) :
Steve! So, if sea ice very briefly hits normal once a year or less, you accept that this constitutes a “return to normal”?”
“Hitting normal” says exactly the same as “returning to normal”.
Ben Kellett (11:41:01) :
“Steven! Let’s clear this one up once & for all. Has sea ice really “returned to normal”? Just because it has recently touched the 1979 -2000 average, does that mean it’s back to normal?”
Yet another example of folks who forget to read their own words. How can it be that 1979 – 2000 (21 years out of thousands of millenia) can be so firmly implanted in the mind as “normal” to the point of emotioanl eruption? 6 weeks ….21 years ….30 years….I’m afraid the evidence for “normal” has melted away many hundreds of times. GET OVER IT!
Solomon, are you a rose or a thorn?
I am the rose of Sharon,
and the lily of the valleys.
As the lily among thorns,
so is my love among the daughters.
As the apple tree among the trees of the wood..
Solomon the King
If the Artic nearly all melted a couple of years ago, of course there’s not much multi year ice.
It will take a few years for new ice to get old, won’t it? or should it age itself “quickly”? Maybe Solomon thinks so.
New ice and 2 year ice are on the uptick. They will be multi year ice one day soon, at least where I come from…
The Archipelago of Stockholm is a fantastic place for skating. Long distance skating has been performed for a long time and the oldest skating club, Stockholm Long Distance Skating Club, was founded 1901. Recently a member of the club looked into the logbooks carrying information about first date of skating excursion for the season (in the automn) and the last date (in the spring) staring from 1906 upto 2007. This record doesn’t really show any trend at all. If any it is towards earlier first excursion and later last excursion (Are people tougher these days?) Perhaps this could be a good proxy for Michael Mann to use in his next paper instead of some poor trees in the US or Russia.
Here are some comments from the books:
1906/7: This winter was as bad as the previous for skating
1909/10: The worst winter ever for skating
1917/18: Seldom have the skating conditions been worse
1924/25: In our 25 year history this is the mildest winter ever
1935/36: Useless skating conditions. Are we getting into a warm period?
1953/54: This is the mildest fourth quarter in 132 years.
This is why I stopped worrying about global warming years ago.
I read lots of Wikipedia entries, the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report was current then, and noted the warming is going to happen regardless, for centuries to come. So why all the talk about having to combat it, we’ll be adapting to the warming no matter what! Let’s get right to it!
And many centuries from now when it does slow down and eventually stop, to our descendants that climate will be their normal. If they could reverse it and cool the planet off, would they even want to return to the cold times of their long-forgotten ancestors?
New from Pachauri Productions, which brought you the best-selling Return to Almora:
Dr. Strangelover or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Warmth
John writes:
“Perhaps you were thinking of Camille (1969), the second most intense to strike the US, just behind a 1935 Florida Keys hurricane that in previous years might not have been listed, leaving Camille as #!? Carla was a 4 at landfall, pressure 931 millibars, Camille was a 5 at landfall, 909 millibars.”
I saw the aftermath of Camille. Ocean going ships were on the Mississippi beach and on A1A. The storm surge must have been forty feet. Yeah, I think you were thinking about Camille.
Remember the Arctic death spiral? Arctic positive feedback?
We waited, and waited and got sea ice extent and area back to ‘normal.’
“…back to normal in 100 years…”
What an idiot! I can post numerous examples of extreme climatic conditions prior to 1700, and before the industrial revolution.
Susan SolomonPh.D. University of California, Berkeley, 1981
Research Interests
Atmospheric chemistry and its links to climate
http://cires.colorado.edu/people/solomon/
*************
PHD!!!!! ASK FOR YOUR MONEY BACK NOW!!!
OT, but maybe we are about to recieve the benefit of the good Lord O’s wisdom tomorrow?
Bishop Hill has an interesting post:-
“Slap it on all over”
Apr 13, 2010
“Rumour has it that Lord Oxburgh has completed the scientific review of the CRU, which will be published tomorrow. That was quick, wasn’t it? I don’t know about you but I haven’t even seen terms of reference yet. Whitewashing is a quick job isn’t it?”
“Is anyone going to take any bets as to whether the scope of Lord O’s work is so restricted as to prevent him investigating the most serious allegations?”
If true, seems to be too quick to have got down to the detail.
We will see what tomorrow brings
It’s dolts like Solomon and Serreze who make it difficult for me to be the inherent lukewarmist that I am.
But you can’t let the extremes on either side drive the agenda wagon, even in righteous reaction to their antics. That way lies madness.
@TimiBoy–so what if the second year ice doesn’t survive this summer? Do you understand the processes that cause the Arctic sea ice to melt? I have the feeling you don’t or you wouldn’t make such a comment. If you look at the last 30 years there is very little old ice left in the Arctic Ocean..the Arctic is transitioning towards a seasonal ice cover, just like what you pretty much have i the Antarctic. Of course you probably think that doesn’t matter, but that would be because you don’t understand the physics behind the system and why you should care. I think it’s sad when people who have no science background try to talk about the science. I think it’s also sad when people deliberately misrepresent the information (on both sides of the argument).
“pgosselin (13:03:20) :
The German edition of the Financial Times has revealed that the EU buried an internal study showing damning results on biodiesel. Unfortunately I couldn’t find an English version, and so wrote a summary blurb about it here:
http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/04/13/eu-buried-devastating-biodiesel-report/
They knew it was bad, and so they buried it!”
FTD URL , german:
http://www.ftd.de/politik/europa/:umweltrisiken-eu-ziele-fuer-biosprit-wackeln/50099403.html
My remarks:
Oettinger didn’t bury it but says the comission will make results public when they are ready (“wenn sie [the comission] fertig ist”, literally, ready with what it doesn’t say, probably with processing the study). Of course this could mean a de facto burying.
The goal to reach 10% fuel by renewables in 2020 can be reached with a mixture of biofuel and electric cars, it’s not an obligation to do it all with biofuel.
“”” johnythelowery (12:10:29) :
George E. Smith (11:50:06) :
Well I agree with her; the arrow of time is irreversible, and there is no going back.
But as to the CO2; we now enjoy the lowest CO2 levels that we have seen in the last 600 million years; and there’s no returning to those days either.
————————————————————-
I’m not going to play Devil’s advocate, but i am going to play ‘AL’s Lawyer’
We can discuss the difference at a different time 🙂 :
So here goes:
Alright you people at WUWT: If the CO2 lags temperature by 800 years, and so temperature apparently initiates the mechanism(s) of CO2 level reversing. CO2 is not lagging temperature now but preceding it, it’s rise in level is before warming, therefore, we can’t wait 800 years for temperatures to rise as by then all there will be left to breath will be CO2. (although, i have my own Oxygen stash in a secret underground gas silo)???? Your honor, I rest my case (full of cash for you under the table!) “””
Well Johnthelowery; I suggest you hightail it back to your client; the one who is goring you; and tell him this.
Sometime today, it will be 2010; year wise that is.
800 years ago, it would have been 1210.
That pretty much puts us 800 years ahead of the Mediaeval warming period.
So it’s about damn time for that extra CO2 to show up.
Tell Big Al That; please.
Steve Goddard & all those who have challenged my points to Steve.
No I don’t know what the 2010 summer arctic sea ice minimum will be but I will estimate now that it will be below the 1979 -2000 average as it has been for the last several years.
Of course everone assumes that I am passionately nailing my colours to the AGW banner, when in fact all I’m trying (without any success) to establish is a clear bench mark. This is just common sense as well as being one of the foundation stones of basic science.
Yes, of course we can look at arctic sea ice in the context of geology & see no meaningful trend. And of course we can look at global sea ice as a whole & see no meaningful change. And yes we can also say that sea ice has been on a long term decline since the end of the last ice age etc, etc, etc.
But, let’s just stop for a moment & look at the very clear evidence that we have relating to the arctic in particular – not to cherry pick but just to establish this as a our clear bench mark which will be used as one among many bench marks henceforth as a possible indicator of climate change . If we do this, then there is no denying that arctic sea ice extent has recently touched on normal for what constitutes a brief moment in the satellite record that we have available. Not until it has averaged out as normal for a full 12 month period can we truly begin to claim normality – surely. Clearly it is most likely that in order to achieve this, we will also have to see arctic see ice run at above normal levels to compensate for times when it runs below normal levels. Even if this is achieved for a 12 month period, the trend line would remain on a downward incline and of course we would need to see some years with sea ice exceeding normal levels to truly conclude normality had been reached.
And for all those who claim that it’s part of a natural cycle – you may well be right. But equally, you may be wrong because as we all know,,,,,,,”the science is far from settled”!! Natural variability in climate remember is a double edged sword. Just as natural variability might be the main driver behind the recent changes we have seen in climate, well then of course natural variability could also be responsible for the slowing down of CO2 induced temperature rise in recent years. If this is the case, then when the ineveitable happens & the natural variation has the opposite effect, what then?
And to all those who quite rightly point out that a super volcanoe or change in solar output or comets hitting the earth etc, etc all dwarf the AGW issue, well thanks fo pointing out the obvious but so what? We can’t do anything about any of that, so fine, let’s not lose any sleep over it! However, while there remains the possibility that we are causing a problem, surely it is sensible at least to listen & to proceed with caution?