From NASA JPL, signs that “the boy” isn’t leaving. Perhaps he’s receiving too warm a welcome.
El Niño 2009-2010 just keeps hanging in there. Recent sea-level height data from the NASA/European Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 oceanography satellite show that a large-scale, sustained weakening of trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during late-January through February has triggered yet another strong, eastward-moving wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave. Now in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, this warm wave appears as the large area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights (warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) between 150 degrees west and 100 degrees west longitude. A series of similar, weaker events that began in June 2009 initially triggered and has sustained the present El Niño condition.
JPL oceanographer Bill Patzert says it’s too soon to know for sure, but he would not be surprised if this latest and largest Kelvin wave is the “last hurrah” for this long-lasting El Niño.
Patzert explained, “Since June 2009, this El Niño has waxed and waned, impacting many global weather events. I, and many other scientists, expect the current El Niño to leave the stage sometime soon. What comes next is not yet clear, but a return to El Niño’s dry sibling, La Niña, is certainly a possibility, though by no means a certainty. We’ll be monitoring conditions closely over the coming weeks and months.”
An El Niño also causes unusual changes in atmospheric circulation and convection around the globe. JPL’s Microwave Limb Sounder instrument on NASA’s Aura spacecraft captured a large eastward shift of deep convection from the current El Niño, indicated by large amounts of cloud ice in the upper troposphere.
NASA’s Aura Sees El Niño’s Effects on the Atmosphere
An El Niño is characterized by an abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This sea surface temperature change is accompanied by anomalous atmospheric circulation and convection changes around the globe. The 2010 El Niño reached maximum strength during January and February 2010. The Microwave Limb Sounder instrument on NASA’s Aura spacecraft observed a clear eastward shift of deep convection, indicated by large amounts of cloud ice in the upper troposphere. The enhancement of cloud ice from 13 kilometers (approximately 40,000 feet) and above is the greatest since Aura launched in July 2004.
On July 15, 2004, NASA’s Aura spacecraft launched from California’s Vandenberg Air Force Base on a mission to study Earth’s ozone layer, air quality and climate. Aura’s data are helping scientists address global climate change issues such as global warming; the global transport, distribution and chemistry of polluted air; and ozone depletion in the stratosphere, the layer of Earth’s atmosphere that extends from roughly 15 to 50 kilometers (10 to 30 miles) in altitude.
Aura is the third and final major Earth Observing System satellite. Aura carries four instruments: the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, built by the Netherlands and Finland in collaboration with NASA; the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder, built by the United Kingdom and the United States; and the Microwave Limb Sounder and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer, both built by JPL. Aura is managed by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
The Microwave Limb Sounder is a second-generation instrument that is helping scientists improve our understanding of ozone in Earth’s stratosphere, especially how it is depleted by processes of chlorine chemistry. The instrument measures naturally occurring microwave thermal emission from the edge of Earth’s atmosphere to remotely sense vertical profiles of atmospheric gases, temperature, pressure and cloud ice.
For more information on Aura on the Internet, visit http://aura.gsfc.nasa.gov/.
For more information on the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Internet, visit: http://mls.jpl.nasa.gov/.
- An El Niño is characterized by an abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This sea surface temperature change is accompanied by anomalous atmospheric circulation and convection changes around the globe. The 2010 El Niño reached maximum strength during January and February 2010. The Microwave Limb Sounder instrument on NASA’s Aura spacecraft observed a clear eastward shift of deep convection, indicated by large amounts of cloud ice in the upper troposphere. The enhancement of cloud ice from 13 kilometers (approximately 40,000 feet) and above is the greatest since Aura launched in July 2004.
On July 15, 2004, NASA’s Aura spacecraft launched from California’s Vandenberg Air Force Base on a mission to study Earth’s ozone layer, air quality and climate. Aura’s data are helping scientists address global climate change issues such as global warming; the global transport, distribution and chemistry of polluted air; and ozone depletion in the stratosphere, the layer of Earth’s atmosphere that extends from roughly 15 to 50 kilometers (10 to 30 miles) in altitude.
Aura is the third and final major Earth Observing System satellite. Aura carries four instruments: the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, built by the Netherlands and Finland in collaboration with NASA; the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder, built by the United Kingdom and the United States; and the Microwave Limb Sounder and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer, both built by JPL. Aura is managed by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
The Microwave Limb Sounder is a second-generation instrument that is helping scientists improve our understanding of ozone in Earth’s stratosphere, especially how it is depleted by processes of chlorine chemistry. The instrument measures naturally occurring microwave thermal emission from the edge of Earth’s atmosphere to remotely sense vertical profiles of atmospheric gases, temperature, pressure and cloud ice.
For more information on Aura on the Internet, visit http://aura.gsfc.nasa.gov/. For more information on the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Internet, visit: http://mls.jpl.nasa.gov/.
R. Gates (10:43:33) :
“…if 2010 becomes the hottest year on instrument record, unless this year’s El Nino become the most intense on record, than what other factors (if not GH gases) would have caused 2010 to become the warmest year, especially as we have just come through such a long and deep solar minimum?”
I, for one, believe that solar effects, like the recent lower activity, manifest over the course of decades and not in a years time. The recent minimum, if it continues, may have a profound impact in the decades ahead, but will not really be discernible for a few more years. Certainly, the ever increasing concentration of CO2 would have a warming influence, but all indications are that this influence is very small. Ultimately, I believe the PDO is the largest factor. The problem is that the PDO does not act like a light switch, turning from cool phase to warm phase and back again in a short period of time. It looks like we may have to get 5 or 10 years past the transition to know it was a transition.
2010 could be the warmest year in the instrument or satellite record because we are at the end of a warm phase or just beginning of the cool phase of the PDO, plus we are experiencing a moderately warm El Nino, plus CO2 is higher.
Our location on the PDO curve plus the El Nino are the most important factors. The PDO warm phase may be over, but we are still at the top of that curve.
Temps may very well cool significantly over the next few years as all factors, aside from CO2, point to cooling. The weak CO2 warming influence doesn’t stand a chance against a cool PDO, potentially weak sun and a dominance of La Ninas.
That is my forecast.
The article states, “…a large-scale, sustained weakening of trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during late-January through February has triggered yet another strong, eastward-moving wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave.”
And this eastward-moving wave of warm water can be seen in the animation of subsurface equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies here:
http://i46.tinypic.com/2nt8ao9.gif
You can see it forming early in February.
The most up-to-date version is here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml
Currently, I see this as the result of a larger than normal ice melt from the antarctic area below the west pacific, superimposed on a preexisting El nino. Coriolis forces drive this cold meltwater equitorially where it induces cooling air to slump down over it increasing wind speed and possibly promoting low cloud amplification of the ocean temperatures.This resulting higher air pressure in the west pacific perpetuates the El nino.
Two other features I see as important. The melt below the eastern pacific was also large causing a cooling and increased trade wind speed against south america and the arctic atmosphere lost a lot of heat this N.H. winter [negative ao].
jorgekafkazar (13:03:45) : The ocean has 1200 times the heat storage capacity of the air. Atmospheric temperatures are transient and chaotic and have little, if any, significance vis-a-vis Global Warming.
Exactly! I would love to see 50 years with accurate Argo ocean data, I strongly suspect that these would be smooth and continuous and make much more sense than the wildly fluctuating air data. Then perhaps, we may see patterns due to PDO and other at present unknown ocean cycles that may give us much valuable insight.
Sorry my computer is playing up!
I see the negative ao as increasing atmospheric circulation over the northern pacific increasing the northern trade winds.The warm water in the central pacific is thus currently trapped between high pressures in the west, and increased trade winds from the north and south east.
Soon I think the trade winds will win but then it will be very interesting to see where the warmer waters get driven to. I suspect the stronger N. H. trade winds will prevail [PDO negative] driving warm water down the western limb of the south pacific gyre. This might inhibit ice formation in this area, possibly more so in the west pacific area of antarctica.
R. Gates (10:43:33) : Of course, the longer the El Nino hangs on, the more likely 2010 will be the warmest year on instrument record. If 2010 does turn out warmer than 1998 (or 2003) this will be touted by AGW believers as proof that AGWT is correct
Since 2010 may be “warmer” than 1998 we strongly demand a daily update of ocean heat content based on Argo ocean data:
http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/Argo_Data_and.html
For example something along the lines of the brilliant daily earth temperatures from satellites provided by John Christy and Roy Spencer:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
A couple of skilled SW engineers would implement a service like this in a couple of weeks! Full spead ahead!
We’ve just experienced a pretty cold winter in the Northern hemisphere even though there has been a strong El Niño.
What difference would there have been to the NH winter, i.e., would it have been colder, warmer, wetter or whatever?, had this not been an El Niño year?
For those interested, OI.v2 SST data is updated weekly on Mondays at the NOAA NOMADS website (The NOMAD1 server’s kinda slow today):
http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh
The weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies for the week centered on March 10, 2010 are 1.22 deg C:
http://i44.tinypic.com/30j5tky.png
And the NINO3.4 SST anomalies 6 weeks before that was 1.23 deg C, so the decline has slowed considerably over the past month and a half. But as you can see, the rises and falls do pause.
As far as I know, this is not a “long-lasting” El Nino as of yet. It was formally declared in early July. The links I’ve looked at say they usually last 9-12 months.
I used to welcome El Nino events because the have a good influence on fishery in the Atlantic, but I have come to dread them – because, they allow for such nonsense as
“2009: The HOTTEST year in (exaggerated number) of YEARS!!!”
It is sure to follow, that this “extended” El Nino will be called the “worst” El Nino “ever” and all the result of “climate change”
I only noticed one correct American-English spelling. We only have 26 letters in our alphabet. “El” is a shape. Therefore, it’s “The Ninyo/Ninya”.
Also, our “j” is not pronounced like “y”. I found that to be an odd spelling. But, who am I to criticize?
I’m just glad the friggin snow is gone. My acreage looks like a bomb went off on it. Tree branches snapped off by heavy snow all over the place. Upside – a good start on firewood for the next “unexpected” bad winter. I went through 6 cords this year.
It looks like the El Nino might have finished dumping its heat into the atmosphere for now.
Outgoing long-wave radiation anomalies from these regions (Nino 4) correlate pretty well with the global temperature changes (inversed – negative anomalies mean heat is being held in the atmosphere by cloud cover – positive means heat is escaping – and 50 watts/metre2 are very large anomalies).
This is really the source of the lag between temperatures and the ENSO as well. The El Nino peaked in mid-December and it took until now for the energy to finish making its way into the atmosphere.
http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR/ts.r11.l.gif
http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR/ts.r4.l.gif
These charts look the same for the 1997-98 El Nino and others ENSO events. Negative in the month or two after an El Nino and positive in the months after a La Nina.
There is a possibility of a re-strengthening since the upper ocean heat anomalies have reorganized but a La Nina will follow a later date.
This El Nino has caused huge floods in Australia, whereas they normally bring drought conditions. It has been suggested that it’s a Modoki El Nino – the same but different – as if it’s behaving like a La Nina.
ENSO needs more research dollars, I feel a strong La Nina coming on.
Adam from Kansas (12:30:22) :
If we are to be at all scientific in our curiosity, we should not “want” any outcome. This desire is what has ruined climate science.
On another level, I certainly don’t want more cold – a little warming, say of 5C, would be good for Canada.
Bob Tisdale (13:34:44) :
I don’t think R. Gates will understand you.
Bob Tisdale (14:02:06) : ….No I don’t have a link. That is the number I was taught many years ago but if CPC uses 1.5, I’d go with that. This would then obviously be a strong El Nino although not nearly as strong as 82-83 or 97-98. The SOI index is only in the moderate range.
Does anyone know if this “sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean” place is what is called the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool?I have only read one article about this IPWP and it did not mention if it is the place where the ENSO starts. Thanks
Bob Tisdale (14:02:06) :
Bob, do you ever read Klaus Wolter?
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/
Discussing the current El Nino (his framework is the MEI), he writes:
The most recent (January-February) MEI value has increased significantly to +1.50, its highest value since April-May 1998, more than one decade ago. The most recent MEI rank has risen from 52nd (10th highest) to 57th (5th highest) out of 61 for this season, now even above the decile (upper 10%) threshold for strong MEI rankings for this season. After four continuous months in the moderate category, the MEI has indeed risen to levels not seen since the strong event of 1997-98. Since 1950, only 1973, 1983, 1992, and 1998 saw stronger El Niño conditions during January-February than in 2010, as measured by the MEI.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/index.html#discussion
I added the “bold.” So this perhaps qualifies as a “strong” El Nino, based on the recent upswing in the MEI (and SST’s), but it still falls well short of “Super” El Nino category.
I agree pretty much with your forecast, Jim Clarke –
except, I don’t believe CO2 in the air has anything to do with anything that anybody can perceive.
I’m not alone
I thought all along this Nino was more a Bambino.
Sioned L (17:01:22) : You asked, “Does anyone know if this “sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean” place is what is called the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool?”
Nope. The Indo-Pacifc Warm Pool is also known as the West Pacific Warm Pool:
http://i33.tinypic.com/24xf0cw.jpg
Very briefly, during Non-El Nino periods (La Nina and ENSO Neutral months), trade winds blow warm surface water from east to west. The warm water runs into New Guinea and Indonesia and collects in the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean to depths of 300 meters. The area where the warm water collects is called the Pacific Warm Pool, or Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. When the trade winds relax, that pool of warm water sloshes from the Pacific Warm Pool to the east, to the central and eastern tropical Pacific to cause an increase in sea surface temperatures there, and that’s called an El Nino.
Bill Kessler of NOAA has a relatively easy-to-read FAQ webpage on ENSO:
http://faculty.washington.edu/kessler/occasionally-asked-questions.html
Basil (17:10:48) : You concluded with, “So this perhaps qualifies as a “strong” El Nino, based on the recent upswing in the MEI (and SST’s), but it still falls well short of “Super” El Nino category.”
Agreed. The 2009/10 El Nino was (is) a central Pacific El Nino, while the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Nino were Central and Eastern (Traditional) El Nino events.
R. Gates.
You adhere to the UAH measurements, I commend you.
However. I want to see the equivalent UAH measurements from the late ’40s & early ’50s when the Earth appeared to cool.
Oh, sorry, they’re not available.
It’s an interesting anomaly which actually proves nothing.
DaveE.
Incidentally.
I forgot to mention that temperature alone means absolutely nothing.
DaveE.