Via Eurekalert – New study debunks myths about Amazon rain forests – They may be more tolerant of droughts than previously thought

(Boston) — A new NASA-funded study has concluded that Amazon rain forests were remarkably unaffected in the face of once-in-a-century drought in 2005, neither dying nor thriving, contrary to a previously published report and claims by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
“We found no big differences in the greenness level of these forests between drought and non-drought years, which suggests that these forests may be more tolerant of droughts than we previously thought,” said Arindam Samanta, the study’s lead author from Boston University.
The comprehensive study published in the current issue of the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters used the latest version of the NASA MODIS satellite data to measure the greenness of these vast pristine forests over the past decade.
A study published in the journal Science in 2007 claimed that these forests actually thrive from drought because of more sunshine under cloud-less skies typical of drought conditions. The new study found that those results were flawed and not reproducible.
“This new study brings some clarity to our muddled understanding of how these forests, with their rich source of biodiversity, would fare in the future in the face of twin pressures from logging and changing climate,” said Boston University Prof. Ranga Myneni, senior author of the new study.
The IPCC is under scrutiny for various data inaccuracies, including its claim – based on a flawed World Wildlife Fund study — that up to 40% of the Amazonian forests could react drastically and be replaced by savannas from even a slight reduction in rainfall.
“Our results certainly do not indicate such extreme sensitivity to reductions in rainfall,” said Sangram Ganguly, an author on the new study, from the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute affiliated with NASA Ames Research Center in California.
“The way that the WWF report calculated this 40% was totally wrong, while [the new] calculations are by far more reliable and correct,” said Dr. Jose Marengo, a Brazilian National Institute for Space Research climate scientist and member of the IPCC.
Founded in 1839, Boston University is an internationally recognized private research university with more than 30,000 students participating in undergraduate, graduate, and professional programs. BU consists of 17 colleges and schools along with a number of multi-disciplinary centers and institutes which are central to the school’s research and teaching mission.
Geophysical Research Letters article citation: Samanta, A., S. Ganguly, H. Hashimoto, S. Devadiga, E. Vermote, Y. Knyazikhin, R. R. Nemani, and R. B. Myneni (2010), Amazon forests did not green‐up during the 2005 drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L05401, doi:10.1029/2009GL042154.
ABSTRACT: Amazon forests did not green-up during the 2005 drought
Paper available here (PDF)
The sensitivity of Amazon rainforests to dry-season droughts is still poorly understood, with reports of enhanced tree mortality and forest fires on one hand, and excessive forest greening on the other. Here, we report that the previous results of large-scale greening of the Amazon, obtained from an earlier version of satellite-derived vegetation greenness data – Collection 4 (C4) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), are irreproducible, with both this earlier version as well as the improved, current version (C5), owing to inclusion of atmosphere-corrupted data in those results. We find no evidence of large-scale greening of intact Amazon forests during the 2005 drought – approximately 11%–12% of these drought-stricken forests display greening, while, 28%–29% show browning or no-change, and for the rest, the data are not of sufficient quality to characterize any changes. These changes are also not unique – approximately similar changes are observed in non-drought years as well. Changes in surface solar irradiance are contrary to the speculation in the previously published report of enhanced sunlight availability during the 2005 drought. There was no co-relation between drought severity and greenness changes, which is contrary to the idea of drought-induced greening. Thus, we conclude that Amazon forests did not green-up during the 2005 drought.
h/t to Dr. Leif Svalgaard
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Glenn Tamblyn (00:14:37) :
You obviously haven’t read the Nepstad et al papers as I did, the 40% was created by the IPCC.
Nepstad et al quoted an area of Brazillian Rainforest which actually equated to approx. 11% of the Amazon Rainforest.
The 40% appears to have been conjured up from another paper talking about Burning & Logging in the Brazillian rainforest, but hey that is pretty close to a Drought so that will do for the IPCC.
owl (01:36:38) :
owl (04:41:58) :
What proof do you have that they are extinct and if they are what did CO2 have to do with it?
As to your link to Coral Reefs http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/7298781/AAAS-Coral-reefs-could-disappear-by-the-end-of-the-century.html
has been completely disproved by other studies see these links
http://www.physorg.com/news185465333.html
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/01/100109002310.htm
http://www.theresilientearth.com/?q=content/heat-resistant-corals-ignore-climate-change-threats
It is Cold that has killed Coarl this year, see this link
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-na-cold-coral31-2010jan31,0,6453643.story
Dear Mike D. (above),
Amzonian Dark Earths are a subject of study one of the members of my department (Dr. E. Arroyo), who is collecting geo-morphophological and archaeological evidence of their anthropogenic formation. He would agree with your post. Thank you for the post and reference (I will look it up as I am in the Durham library now, and I was just visiting this site for fun, I think these places are good for the Democratization of science).
Bruce M. Albert
It Should Be Obvious™
What depth is the water table? How far down are the aquifers?
You don’t get vegetation to grow that tall and that dense without very deep roots. It seems very likely they extend downward at least as far as a reliably-producing hand-dug well would go.
The dang trees can fetch their own water. Little shortages in the rainfall don’t matter, unless going on for a very long time, which certainly does not look to be happening anytime soon.
@Gail Combs
You do know that when people fail with the commercial fertilizer is usually because people seem to think that more the merrier. People usually don’t over fertilize their garden and grass with the home made stuff because it’s har to burn enough wood to do that. Commercial fertilizers are the distilled burning of woods from hundred and thousands of people, i.e. you really don’t need all that much as long as you use it properly.
All you have to do is look to the closest hydro pond system or the present day intelligent farmer who calculates how much to use in the amount of water used for irrigation and such (like pending on how much nutrients the soil already contain and how much it rains, etc.)
Some plants actually need a forest fire, or rather the heat, to survive and propagate.
While rain forest resistance to drought is a bit of a no brainer, I am at a loss as to why this is relevant.
It has been empirically established, by Wentz et al, that:
“And as the air, earth and sea warms with climate change the atmospheric water vapor load increases by as much as 6.5 percent per degree Celsius, according to satellite data from the past 20 years. As the water vapor increases, so, too, will rainfall, argues physicist Frank Wentz, director of Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) in Santa Rosa, Calif., a provider of climate data records contracted by NASA. ”
So the only way drought will increase, will be via a global cooling scenario. When we see polar ice growing, we will know more water is being removed from the atmosphere, and absolute humidity is dropping. It will then be time to worry about drought and increased desertification.
Btw, both poles are now nominal, in regards to sea ice extent. GK
Let’s not forget that WWF and many other ‘green’ orgs are funded by various agencies set up by the master manipulators–rockefeller. I hate OILs contribution to our totalitarian gov.
OIL, and google, and MS etc., are investors in Petrobras, just like soros, bhos master… the argument that OIL is somehow against ‘green’ (the green illusion) is sick. Oil is industry and has investors which only care about MONEY/PROFIT.
Industry invests wherever money will be made, unfortunately, but that is what public ownership has done for us… the few make millions and the puny, pawn investors with a few thousand shares… well, it makes them feel like they are part of the economy and are ‘smart’ investors.
WWF and Greenpeace are funded by oil.
I’ll try to find a letter and post it… it isn’t too long and apparently is genuine… BTW: I got my investor info from Petrobras itself, no other source.
Cont… can’t find the original source, but here is something:
Greenpeace’s factsheets cannot disguise which side Exxon is really on. Their factsheet on Stanford University reads :
On November 20, 2002 Exxon Mobil announced it would give $100 million to a groundbreaking Stanford University project dedicated to researching new options for commercially viable, technological systems for energy supply and use which have the capability to substantially reduce greenhouse emissions.” Other corporate sponsors to The Global Climate and Energy Project included General Electric and Schlumberger…..The project is not intended to further explore climate science, instead focusing on development of new energy technology and carbon sequestration technology(5)
The same ruse was used in 1913 to get Congress and the public behind the plan for the Federal Reserve System. Unknown to the public, the Federal Reserve Act was drawn up in secret by Wall Street in 1910. Rockefeller and friends knew that there was great public mistrust of Wall Street ‘s involvement with the Glass-Owen Bill placed before Congress. The only way to swing public opinion in favour of the Bill was for Wall Street to come out in the press vehemently against it. And so anti-establishment feeling helped to win the day for Wall Street.(6). This is a warning from history that Rockefellers deny with their lips what they are doing with their hands.
So what are they doing with their hands, or more importantly with their wallets? Besides the Stanford University example, under the umbrella of Rockefeller Family Fund 136 foundations formed the Environmental Grant makers Association (EGA) in 1987 which has grown to over 200 by the end of the twentieth century. It donates hundreds of millions of dollars annually to environmental groups. In a dazzling display of raw power, foundations with interlocking directorates funded the Nature Conservancy in 1996 to the tune of $203,886,056, or 60 percent of its annual revenue. The Earth Charter, written by Stephen Rockefeller is the Ten Commandments for the Green Religion. It was a development of an earlier Rockefeller initiative, the 1972 Rockefeller Brothers Fund report entitled Use of Land: A Citizen’s Policy Guide to Urban Growth. This was a bench-mark publication on subjecting property rights to government censure.(7)
Dear owl,
You are very good at regurgitating left-wing talking points that have been refuted by science time and time again; however, it was fun to read your wildly innaccurate post nonetheless, just for the giggles.
Ann said,
“It is important to remember that we are talking about a natural drought. The devastation caused by fires and the clearing of forests for such artificial constructs as Brasilia have cause enormous damage, although there does seem to be some mitigation over time. In other words, junk science does not obliterate the real problem of environmental destruction.”
Well Ann, I don’t think anyone here would advocate for wanton environmental destruction, and the fact that there has been some mitigation over time is further evidence of the resilience of the rainforest.
Certainly I don’t personally think that over-logging and/or clearing huge areas of rainforest in order to build a city are the best ideas on the planet, but over-logging and over-clearing of the forest are not caused by excessive levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, they are (unlike global warming) ACTUALLY caused by human choices and activities.
While everyone else is working with owl on the science I would like to set a reality check point.
@owl
In your first post try replacing ‘WE’ with ‘I’. Then turn off your PC, pull the main power breaker, shut off the gas and water, and walk to your front door. Now comes the fun part. Strip completely naked, open the door and walk to the nearest woods. I’d say you have about 3 days to figure out how you’re going to stay alive. NOTHING else will matter… At this point in your life reality really sucks and the messes humanity has and will make are completely irrelevant. Just think, when that protected brown bear comes out of nowhere, YOU are now the endangered species. To the bear you’re just dinner for the family. Welcome to the real world.
I’ve had this conversation with my tree hugging kids – no takers and I cannot figure out why. Time for another cup of warm coffee.
In reply to Gail Combs,
FINALLY someone who actually understands. Regulations are NOT written to control large corporations. Regulations are written BY the large corporations, then passed by our “government” to the detriment of small businesses and the people in general.
Bank regulations do NOT make big banks smaller. Bank regulations make mega-banks even bigger, and destroy community banks. Farming regulations do not make big farms become smaller and more local and manageable. Farming regulations benefit the mega-farms and destroy small family-owned community-based farming.
Look at any instance of government “regulation” and you will see exactly the same phenomenon. This is not by accident, this is by design.
owl (04:41:58) :
There must be a good idea buried in that collection of ideas you have. But now you have a problem. Namely, as others have shown in their response to your comments, you can’t be trusted to tell the truth. Now if you want to be taken seriously you will have to be completely honest in your comments for about a dozen straight. Can you do that?
If you change your name and post the same flim-flam I’ll know you will never be trustworthy. I’m an optimist, though, so if you comment again using the same name I will look through it just to check how you are doing. Being an optimist is sometimes hard and dirty work – look up the story of the Pony in the Dung Heap for an understanding of this statement.
PeterB in Indainapolis (08:48:43) :
“In reply to Gail Combs,
FINALLY someone who actually understands. Regulations are NOT written to control large corporations. Regulations are written BY the large corporations, then passed by our “government” to the detriment of small businesses and the people in general.”
Yes I finally figured that out. At another site “Sancho” remarked about his brother who works for EPA. The brother was ordered to leave Mobil and Exxon alone and go after the small Mom and Pop businesses. Regulations are there to raise the bar so new comers can not become business owners and challenge the profits of the mega corporations. Think about it For the average Joe trying to make a living in a one man shop the following businesses have been regulated out of existence by the US government or insurance companies.
Maid/laundry service
child care
petting zoos
mechanic shops
home baked goodies
even “consultant”
Just to name a few. We are being herded into working for the big corporations. New tax reg now make it almost impossible for a single person to be a consultant. One technical writer found she was paid $10 while the big temp firm charged over $100 for her work. Companies will no longer hire you unless you are from a multi-person consulting firm thanks to the change in tax regs that was “supposed to protect workers from exploitation”
The USA is now Government by the megacorporations for the megacorporation…
and this from a capitalist!
B.M. Albert, Ph.D., PDRA (07:52:48) :
Dear Mike D. (above),
Amzonian Dark Earths are a subject of study one of the members of my department (Dr. E. Arroyo), who is collecting geo-morphophological and archaeological evidence of their anthropogenic formation. He would agree with your post….
Perhaps you or he could do a popular type article and post it here.
1DandyTroll (08:05:18) : I sample and have my fields analyzed on a yearly basis so I can apply the correct lime and fertilizer without waste per the USDA’s recommendations. My words still stand. I was amazed at the response I got from the wood ash from my stove.
I made the comment because people seem to equate burning with evil when it is a natural part of the earth’s cycles.
Gail Combs (09:49:43) :I made the comment because people seem to equate burning with evil when it is a natural part of the earth’s cycles
If it’s natural then: “Save the jungles, burn global warmers instead of trees!”
Gail Combs (09:49:43): Perhaps you or he could do a popular type article and post it here.
Gail, I direct an online institute with a dozen subsites. We post lots of popular articles on a variety of topics, including Amazon dark earths. Click on my name. It is, however, less than ideal web etiquette to fish for visitors at other’s websites, so I tone down the self promotion when visiting here.
Anthony posts what interests him. He doesn’t need me or anyone else to tell him what to post. He has been successful following his own drummer. No reason to change that strategy.
owl (01:36:38), and Stephen Skinner (03:29:54), the “eco-suicide” of the Easter Islanders is probably just another eco-myth:
http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/EE%2016-34_Peiser.pdf
http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/feature/rethinking-the-fall-of-easter-island
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19125621.100-easter-island-a-monumental-collapse.html?full=true
Because this is a partisan (or committed or engaged or risen-consciouness) site and the IPCC is one of its punching bags. So what?
jeez (02:54:19) : said
Hey owl. Can you name 5 of the those species that went extinct in 2009?
owl (04:41:58) : said
List of extinct species in 2009
New Zealand Owlet-nightjar
Owl. .As you can see the below the NZ owlet-nightjar has been long gone – like since 1200 AD. This was just the first on your list of 5. Why should I believe anything you say.
Despite a small number of reports of small owls being found in the 19th century that may have been New Zealand Owlet-nightjars, the species is thought to have become extinct around 1200 AD.
The New Zealand Owlet-nightjar was the largest species of owlet-nightjar, weighing an estimated 150-200 g. The species was also either flightless, as suggested by its small wings, or a very poor flier (the species has a strong keel). The diet probably consisted of invertebrates, as well as frogs and lizards.
The species rapidly became extinct after the introduction of Pacific Rats to New Zealand. Their remains have never been found in association with Māori middens, and are unlikely to have been hunted due to their small size and nocturnal habits.
Doug
bunny (02:08:55) :
Anu,
Your story about the iceberg set to hit Australia is a good one. The article states that the iceberg is 1,700km off the coast of SYDNEY. Then it says that the iceberg is off the coast of Western Australia. LOL. Sydney is on the opposite side of the country! That would be like saying that an iceberg spotted off the coast of California was approaching New York.
———
Yes, it’s funny when journalists don’t know the details of their story. That’s why they call “news” the “first, rough draft of history”.
Perhaps Anna Pollit of Sky News was confused with the comparison of the size of the iceberg to the size of Sydney Harbor:
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/giant-19km-iceberg-heading-for-wa/story-e6frg13u-1225808618141
The implication of my post was that if “once-in-a-century” events begin to happen more quickly, something is affecting the statistics used previously. For example, if you start finding four-leaf clovers all over the place, look for a radiation leak at the nearby nuclear power plant.
As for the “once-in-a-century” events, perhaps you have some explanation of what caused these same types of events over 100 years ago, when carbon dioxide levels were lower than they are today.
Provide me a link to information on an actual siting of such a large iceberg from a 19th century Clipper ship, and I’ll do my best.
Perhaps they were bad at estimating iceberg size.
Tenuc (00:24:09) :
However, as climate is defined, in our reference frame, as long-term changes to weather these events, energetic though they are, have no measurable effect of climate and provide no indication of change.
———–
Sorry, no.
If what used to be a “once-in-a-century drought” starts happening every 10 years in a place like the American Southwest, then by definition, the climate for that region has changed.
My links above do not attempt to prove that this is the case in the locations mentioned – but it brings up the topic. The point is, “once-in-a-century” weather events for a particular place is not an eternal, unchanging measurement.
If the Amazon rain forest starts to have “once-in-a-century” droughts every 10 years, that is significant. And also shows “once-in-a-century drought” needs to be updated.
A note about “once in a 100 year” events. In statistics it doesn’t mean what the average layman might interpret it to mean. It actually means a 50% chance of happening in 69 years.
A 1/100 probability *IN ANY GIVEN YEAR* means a
1 – 1/100 = 99/100
probability of *NOT HAPPENING IN ANY GIVEN YEAR*. The probability of if it not happening for 69 consecutive years is
(99/100)^69 = 0.4998
Statistics is not intuitive, e.g. the “birthday paradox”.
The warm-mongers remind me of the Black Knight in Monty Python. Their predictable reaction will be… “So you’ve destroyed one of our major claims? No big deal; it’s only a flesh wound to our credibility. The Black Knight is still robust”. For those of you who haven’t seen the Black Knight scene, here it is on YouTube…
Timothy Nesbitt (08:47:26) :
@owl
Now comes the fun part. Strip completely naked, open the door and walk to the nearest woods. I’d say you have about 3 days to figure out how you’re going to stay alive.
This time of the year? I figure he’ll have until about four hours after sunset…