Guest post by Indur M. Goklany
The latest Science magazine has an extended interview with Dr. Phil Jones. In this post, I’ll keep away from issues related to Climategate, whether this was a softball interview (given that, for example, there is no discussion of deletion of files, if any) or whether, by refusing to share data with skeptics, Professor Jones was undermining the scientific method (because the scientific method relies, among other things, on giving one’s skeptics the opportunity to disprove one’s conclusions). Instead I will focus on phenological arguments that have been advanced to argue that global warming indeed exists.
These arguments are the subject of the second question posed to Dr. Jones:
”Q: Let’s pretend for a second that we threw out the CRU dataset. What other data are available that corroborate your findings about temperature rise?
“P.J.: There’s the two other datasets produced in the U.S. [at NASA and NOAA]. But there’s also a lot of other evidence showing that the world’s warming, by just looking outside and seeing glaciers retreating, the reduction of sea ice … overall, the reduction of snow areas in the northern hemisphere, the earlier [annual] breakup of sea ice and some land ice and river ice around the world, and the fact that spring seems to be coming earlier in many parts of the world.”
I am very sympathetic to PJ’s argument, because, in the past, I have made the same argument. However, over time I have become more skeptical about the extent to which higher temperatures are the sole determinants of either (a) melting of glaciers and sea ice and (b) earlier springs. Accordingly, these phenological arguments have, in my opinion, become less compelling. I would, therefore, add caveats to PJ’s response.
Melting of glaciers and sea ice. It’s possible that higher levels of soot could have contributed to greater melting (see paper by James Hansen, also see here). On the other hand, ice core measurements in Greenland indicate that soot peaked around 1910 (with minor peaks occurring later), consistent with my claim that air pollution from combustion sources in industrialized countries was being reduced long before any Clean Air Act. In addition, a reduction in precipitation would also be manifested as a net reduction in glacier and ice extent, but it is hard to imagine that precipitation changes will only occur in one direction.
Earlier Springs. This suggests that temperatures might have increased, at least around springtime. This, however, is complicated by the fact that human activities have pumped out CO2, and various forms of sulfur and nitrogen into the atmosphere. Each of these acts as a plant fertilizer. This ought to affect the onset of spring. [If anyone has or knows of empirical information on fertilizers and earlier spring, I would appreciate getting details.] Moreover, while there are numerous studies (see, e.g. here) that indicate that spring has advanced, there is a recent satellite based study that indicates no consistent trends in the starat of spring in North America. This paper, Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982–2006, notes in its abstract:
”We found no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground- or model-based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS [start of spring] trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.”
The issue is not whether the globe is warming (obviously if one is coming out of a little ice age, the globe will be warming and glacier melts etc are therefore to be expected and prove nothing in themselves) but rather whether the rate of warming is being increased in line with anthropogenic CO2 output.
Whilst increased CO2 levels will no doubt accelerate the rate of growth of vegetation, increased levels may not in themselves advance the onset of spring. Of course, in urban areas, the earlier onset of spring may be a factor of the UHI. Since most of us live in urban areas, we may get a false perception of early springs simply because of increased local UHI.
There’s nothing quite as stomach churning as alarmists talking up their 30 years of observing earlier springs (or worse, data showing earlier springs since the end of the LIA) without a shred of long term perspective. Were there earlier springs 1000 years ago Phil? What was the sea ice extent? Glaciers? Sea level? What’s amazing to me is there is data available. Sea levels were the same to 1/2 meter higher in the MWP. Glaciers retreated in Europe, etc.
“…while there are numerous studies that indicate that spring has advanced, there is a recent satellite based study that indicates no consistent trends in the starat of spring in North America.”
It’s possible to try to quantify the weight of published evidence here using GoogleScholar. Searching on “earlier spring” in the title of a publication give 29 results, while “later spring” gives zero. There are overall seven times more publications with “later” in the title than “earlier” so there’s certainly no bias introduced by the choice of the terms.
Although there’s many more publications on changes of the seasonal onset than these, it is safe to say that the substantial weight of the published observational evidence backs Phil Jones here.
As a commercial vege grower of 54 years from New Zealand no way are springs any earlier havnt changed much in fact here in canterbury we have just had one of the coldest I can remember summers been shit as well this in a el nino year hopefully autumn will be warmer It needs it to be or the year will be a loss as far as money goes cheers Brian
“Let’s pretend for a second that we threw out the CRU dataset. ”
That works for me on so many levels.
But we do have a variety of temperature data sets – from land, sea and air? And there is a lot of agreement between them that there is warming. And there’s good reason to think that there are mechanisms in play that should be producing warming.
I’m sure you’re right – there’s lots of things going on in the world at any given moment. But it does look as though one of them is warming, don’t you think?
@Martin Brumby: “it is absolutely obvious that he will re-appear as a Pundit”
You’ve got me wondering about the public demand for such punditry. Basically, in a market, people will buy the ideas they like. Other people will get paid to keep producing those ideas.
For example, there was the vague idea that quantum physics proves spirituality, due to the vaguely similar sounding notions that,
a. observing something very small inadvertently changes it
b. when one is immersed in absolute love, the psychologically perceived difference between the self and the other appear to dissolve.
It has since been argued in fairly common sense terms that neither of these ideas have anything to do with each other. The people who say that its wrong, include physicists who respect spirituality, but also spiritual pundits who respect science. — “Stop going on about quantum physics already!” — But some people love to hear it so you’ll still find the Deepak Chopras going on about it, selling more books that waffle on about the quantum nature of consciousness.
I guess it just appeals to certain people who have a progressive desire for a new world, which to their minds is mostly about “spirituality” ( very very small quanta of spirituality ).
Likewise the greens who simply won’t let go of the idea that nature is fragile and in balance and is pure and good. The climate is being changed! My God! It is out of balance! These are romantic idealistic feelings.
Regarding the next question in the AAAS interview,
“We have different techniques of deciding whether the stations are used or not, and different ways of putting it all together.” Isn’t this the core issue? Selection bias has been documented by Joseph D’Aleo, “NOAA appears to play a key role as a data gatherer/gatekeeper for the global data centers at NASA and CRU. Programmer E.M. Smith’s analysis
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/11/03/ghcn-the-global-analysis/
of NOAA’s GHCN found they systematically eliminated 75% of the world’s stations with a clear bias towards removing higher latitude, high altitude and rural locations, all of which had a tendency to be cooler. The thermometers in a sense marched towards the tropics, the sea and to airport tarmacs.”
Looks like the AAAS advocate, I mean author, Eli Kintisch avoided asking the real questions.
Mike Ramsey
PJ may have been right in observing some warming, not as dramatic as claimed by some, but seems to have convinced himself that it is ongoing and runaway rather than part of a natural cycle. Of course, if you know that historically there have been cycles the obvious reason why this time the temperature is going to keep going up and not reverse is due to man….. but does PJ actually say this? It doesn’t matter, he was providing the data needed to promote this idea.
One suspects that once this mind set is in place, that’s when you start to select things in the environment to tie in to your theory.
It would be different if he had said “Hey, spring seems to be getting earlier. I wonder if that is a local or global phenomena and what is causing it?”
PS why don’t these guys adapt their peer revie policy to Tv and start interviewing themselves? That way they can be suree of no awkward questions.
What view of the world would Phil have if he lost his window?
He’d be staring at a blank wall.
So much for empirical data!
OT but I’d just like to point out a dark day for my home town of Redcar in t’North of England; the Corus steel plant is closing (sorry, being mothballed) with the last shift today.
Expected job loses are estimated at ~1700 for the plant and up to 8000 for supporting industry in the area…
…but wait, it’s not all bad news, some stand to make a substantial profit out of this – see http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100019821/climategate-with-business-interests-like-these-are-we-really-sure-dr-rajendra-pachauri-is-fit-to-head-the-ipcc/ , so that’s alright then.
Cheers
Mark
The question is NOT whether the world is warming (altho land data looks corrupted beyond reason) – it is the question of why. Why can’t journalists understand this and ask the right question? Makes me nuts.
These folks (Hansen, Gore, IPCCs breathless exhortations) have made a pretty bold assertion: explicit tie of climate change to increased CO2 emissions. Over all other factors, known and unknown. End stop. Rewire global economy.
ALL of the factors PJ cites should have been singularly increasing over past decades – tracking CO2 concentrations in a well-mixed atmosphere. They aren’t and PJ KNOWS IT! Why can’t a journalist get a little informed on this? Makes me NUTS !
You guys are doing all of the work for these journalists! How hard is this – really? Puffball piece, agreed.
Apparently Mongolia is quite cold!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8509143.stm
Excellent post. I suspect this interview with PJ is all part of the sympathy game softening us all up for the great whitewash to come that is the Sir Muir Russell review. What’s the betting that no one will be held to account & that no wrong-doing will be uncovered? Five’ll get you ten is my guess!
I recall as a child in Berkshire that I often asked my mother why we didn’t have a white Christmas (forgive me if I have mentioned this before) & she & my late father both said that we don’t really get very cold winters in Britain, presumably they should know!
I have noted as many others have that Spring has appeared to be starting earlier by small amounts, but then again just because someone says “I have never known this to happen before”, does not of course mean that it has not happened before. However, I have a real problem. What is the obsessive-compulsive disorder prevailing that nature is weak, feeble, & living on a knife-edge & can’t adapt to a changing environment? It’s been doing so for around 2½ billion years or so. No, I think that man is living on a knife-edge, & if dear old Mother Nature so much as farts in the wrong direction, then we’re done for, big time! I might also be inclined to believe this AGW crap if it wasn’t the case that the solution to the problem, just conveniently happens to be presisely what Marxist Sociliast ideology demands, supression of humankind, heavy taxation, reductions in freedom, control over every aspect of our lives, oh & world government run by, err them of course! No mention of their mortal enemy, democracy, their friend & ally in opposition but their nemisis when in power.
Must agree with Rhys Jaggar (01:26:43)
These non temp. based observations of PJ are themselves challengeable, both as to extent and as to causality. Too easy to assume GW as main or sole cause, even if GW significant.
But if repeated often enough in MSM, esp BBC (which many still trust, amazingly) then they become true in peoples’ minds.
Our job: keep arguing against the AGW mythical ghost-monster (especially the exagerated effects, using the truth.
Incidentally, I am pro environment & pro getting off fosil fuel energy in a planned, effective and non panic way, if we can. But hunting the snark of CO2 diverts from more immediate environment tasks….
Cycles of earlier springs, late spring frosts, late springs, early autumns:
Leading to failed blossoms/fruit yields. Happens in cycles in places like California and Florida. Been going on in Calif. since the 1870’s, don’t know about Florida.
Drove early agricultural efforts nuts.
LearDog (03:56:40) :
The journalists are in the drivers seat with unique access to historic print that shows today’s data sets have been mangled and corrupted.
Journalists, of all people, should know better.
Here in New Hampshire, ice-out records for Lake Winnipesaukee have been kept since 1887. Ice-out is determined as the date that the steamship Mount Washington is safely able to visit all of its ports of call. The latest date of May 12 was in 1888, and the earliest just 33 years later in 1921, March 29. There was a date of May 2 in 2001. Indeed, one would be hard-pressed to spot much of any long-term trend, and I’m assuming this is what PJ means by “looking outside”.
If the world has warmed appreciably, it doesn’t seem to be apparent in these ice-out records:
ICE-OUT RECORDS FOR LAKE WINNIPESAUKEE, NEW HAMPSHIRE, USA
1888-May12 1914-Apr. 15 1940-May 4 1966-Apr. 20 1992-Apr. 21
1889-Apr. 14 1915-Apr. 24 1941-Apr. 16 1967-Apr. 20 1993-Apr. 22
1890-Apr. 24 1916-Apr. 16 1942-Apr. 18 1968-Apr. 15 1994- Apr. 23
1891-Apr. 23 1917-Apr. 28 1943-Apr. 30 1969-Apr. 25 1995-Apr. 15
1892-Apr. 11 1918-Apr. 24 1944-May 3 1970-Apr. 28 1996-Apr. 17
1893-May 10 1919-Apr. 14 1945-Apr. 1 1971-May 5 1997-Apr. 24
1894-Apr. 20 1920-Apr. 24 1946-Mar. 30 1972-Apr. 22 1998-Apr. 7
1895-Apr. 20 1921-Mar. 28 1947-Apr. 24 1973-Apr. 23 1999-Apr. 8
1896-Apr. 23 1922-Apr. 17 1948-Apr. 10 1974-Apr. 17 2000-Apr. 10
1897-Apr. 23 1923-Apr. 24 1949-Apr. 6 1975-Apr. 25 2001-May 2
1898-Apr. 14 1924-Apr. 18 1950-Apr. 20 1976-Apr. 17 2002-Apr. 5
1899-May 2 1925-Apr. 10 1951-Apr. 14 1977-Apr. 21 2003-Apr. 25
1900-Apr. 26 1926-May 2 1952-Apr. 20 1978-Apr. 27 2004-Apr. 20
1901-Apr. 20 1927-Apr. 13 1953-Apr. 3 1979-Apr. 25 2005-Apr. 20
1902-Apr. 4 1928-Apr. 19 1954-Apr. 16 1980-Apr. 16 2006-Apr. 3
1903-Apr. 2 1929-Apr. 18 1955-Apr. 19 1981-Apr. 5 2007-Apr. 23
1904-Apr. 29 1930-Apr. 7 1956-May 3 1982-Apr. 29 2008-Apr. 23
1905-Apr. 24 1931-Apr. 11 1957-Apr. 3 1983-Apr. 10 2009-Apr. 12
1906-Apr. 26 1932-Apr. 20 1958-Apr. 13 1984-Apr. 20
1907-Apr. 29 1933-Apr. 25 1959-Apr. 26 1985-Apr. 14
1908-Apr. 21 1934-Apr. 21 1960-Apr. 27 1986-Apr. 16
1909-Apr. 19 1935-Apr. 21 1961-Apr. 27 1987-Apr. 12
1910-Apr. 6 1936-Apr. 8 1962-Apr. 24 1988-Apr. 16
1911-May 2 1937-Apr. 25 1963-Apr. 20 1989-Apr. 25
1912-Apr. 23 1938-Apr. 17 1964-Apr. 28 1990-Apr. 22
1913-Apr. 17 1939-May 4 1965-Apr. 22 1991-Apr. 8
Good point, Veronica, except that Anthony did not write the post; it was Indur M. Goklany.
Anthony: Making the author’s names on posts larger and bolder would help avoid this common error by readers. Also add your name to the posts you do write. This is common practice on other blogs.
/Mr Lynn
Earlier spring? The big question is what criteria is used to denote that? I used the last night time frost in the spring and the first night time frost in the fall. This is the growing season. Using that criteria, in Southern Ontario so far looked at, the growing season is 30 days longer now than in 1921.
Of course, lattitude will have a bearing on that as well, so will location to warm oceans. Our west coast rarely has a winter of any significance, tulips pushing up in Feb is not unheard of. So it’s a real tricky item to pin down, this thing called spring.
But regardless, it does not mean the planet is heating up, it just means there are more days in the comfort zone.
As Martha would say “And that is a good thing”.
I am but a simple soul, It has been my understanding that the Antarctic sea ice has been increasing and still is? Whic is not easy for me to square with warmer waters and therefore I have a little problem with today’s scary DT story:-
Penguins in Antarctica to be replaced by jellyfish due to global warming
Rising temperatures in the oceans around Antarctica could lead to the continent’s penguins being replaced by jellyfish, scientists have warned.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/7263568/Penguins-in-Antarctica-to-be-replaced-by-jellyfish-due-to-global-warming.html
Or maybe there is a little get out clause in the last paragraph ”It makes you realise if the waters warm and other species or predators move in these unique animals will come under competition.”
Professor Phil Jones, the posthumus scientist and now D list minor celebrity has obviously not taken the guidance of his employer. Which is to keep his mouth shut until the dependant (sic) inquiry by Muir Russell has determined his innocence?
‘Ne’er cast a clout till May be out’
English saying circa 1732, there is a debate whether this means the month of May or the Mae tree (Hawthorn) but anyway same difference?
On my reckoning that expression is 278 years old and is still applicable today, weather or climate, trick or cheat.
http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/till-may-is-out.html
@Keith. in Hastings
Sorry I can’t get no satisfaction agreeing with Rhys Jagger 🙂
Hold on about the soot thing. We now know that a positive AO in the spring sends tons of ice to warmer temps in air and water where it melts like chocolate in your mouth. We have also heard that a naturally warm ocean current leading IN to the Arctic is part of the reason (along with wind patterns) for the current extent being further North than it usually is and for the Greenland ice being less thick around its sea edges. I would bet these affects have been MUCH greater than soot. I have a hunch that natural parameters, such as I just mentioned, were likely to be the greater cause of the much talked about melting of the Arctic back in the early 20th century. Might some of this research spend far too much time studying the flea on the dog just because the dog has a need to scratch?
Saying its got to be pollution (which is not to say we shouldn’t clean up our act) continues to belay an arrogant assumption on the part of humankind that we have such mastery over the natural world. It won’t be long before somebody comes up with the hair-brained idea that we can control, or pollute, the Sun. Utter nonsense.
Global sea ice has been fairly constant, so throw that out off the top.
Reduction of snow cover has been shown to be false to the extent that the warmists are now claiming that global warming increases snow cover.
Glaciers are retreating in some areas and growing in others. There are more glaciers retreating, but since a significant number are growing it’s not a GLOBAL phenomenon. In any case, glacier size has as much, if not more, to do with precipitation levels as temperature; some of the shrinking glaciers are in areas where the temperature never gets above freezing. This is not a good proxy for global temperature, much less CO2-driven global temperature.
>> Tom P (00:51:23) :
A search on its database with “earlier spring” in the title* comes up with 29 publications. <<
So now we're left with 'earlier spring.' $2.6 billion per year (n the US alone) is being taken by force from hard working people and spent on supercomputers and junkets to Copenhagen because 29 biologists have noticed that some plants in some places have started blooming earlier? And this is in spite of satellite data that shows otherwise.