Guest post by Steven Goddard
According to Rutgers University Global Snow Lab, last week’s Northern Hemisphere winter snow extent was the second highest on record, at 52,166,840 km2. This was only topped by the second week in February, 1978 at 53,647,305 km2. Rutgers has kept records continuously for the last 2,227 weeks, so being #2 is quite an accomplishment.
Daily Snow – February 13, 2010 (Day 44)
Source : Rutgers University Global Snow Lab
According to Rutgers University data through mid February, Northern Hemisphere winter snow extent has been increasing at a rate of over 100,000 km2 per year.
As discussed on WUWT, the implication is that Northern Hemisphere snow cover has only extended this far south one other time, since Rutgers University started keeping records. Additionally, North American snow extent broke its all time record last week. Canada is normally completely covered with snow in the winter (except for Olympic venues) so the implication is that the US had more snow last week than has been seen in at least the last 44 years.
Two of the fundamental precepts of global warming theory are that the tropics are supposed to expand, and the Arctic is supposed to warm disproportionately and shrink.
Expanding tropics ‘a threat to millions’
By Steve Connor, Science Editor The Independent
Monday, 3 December 2007
The tropical belt that girdles the Earth is expanding north and south, which could have dire consequences for large regions of the world where the climate is likely to become more arid or more stormy, scientists have warned in a seminal study published today. Climate change is having a dramatic impact on the tropics by pushing their boundaries towards the poles at an unprecedented rate not foreseen by computer models, which had predicted this sort of poleward movement only by the end of the century.
Arctic Ice Melting at Alarming Pace as Temperatures Rise
New studies show that the region is warming even faster than many scientists had feared
By Thomas Omestad
Posted December 16, 2008
New studies being released this week indicate that climate change is exerting massive and worrying change on the Arctic region—reducing the volume of ice, releasing methane gas into the atmosphere, and dramatically raising air temperatures in some parts of the Arctic. The findings will give fresh urgency to international deliberations on the next global climate change pact planned for December 2009 in Copenhagen. The studies also will likely intensify international pressure on the incoming Obama administration to embrace major cuts in the emission of greenhouse gases in an effort to help stabilize global temperatures. NASA scientists will reveal that more than 2 trillion tons of land ice on Greenland and Alaska, along with in Antarctica, have melted since 2003. Satellite measurements suggest half of the loss has come from Greenland. Melting of land ice slowly raises sea levels.
The World Meteorological Organization, a United Nations agency, is also reporting that ice volume in the Arctic this year fell to its lowest recorded level to date.
Experts from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado will further reveal that temperatures this fall in some Arctic areas north of Alaska were 9 or 10 degrees Fahrenheit above average. The long-predicted phenomenon is known as “Arctic amplification.” As global air temperatures increase, the Arctic tends to show greater changes because the ice pack that once reflected solar heat is reduced in scope. More heat is therefore absorbed. The study is being discussed at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.
The last time that snow extended this far south was in the 1970s, when climatologists were worried about the onset of an ice age, and some suggested that we needed to melt the polar ice caps by covering them with soot.
Newsweek, April 28, 1975
Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.
Time Magazine Monday, Jun. 24, 1974
Telltale signs are everywhere —from the unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice in the waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a warmth-loving creature like the armadillo from the Midwest.Since the 1940s the mean global temperature has dropped about 2.7° F. Although that figure is at best an estimate, it is supported by other convincing data. When Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and his wife Helena analyzed satellite weather data for the Northern Hemisphere, they found that the area of the ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12% in 1971 and the increase has persisted ever since. Areas of Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, for example, were once totally free of any snow in summer; now they are covered year round.
During the 1970s the southern snow cover was seen as a sign of an impending ice age, and the solution was to melt the polar ice caps. In 2010, the nearly identical snow cover is a sign of out of control global warming and the solution is to shut down modern civilization.
Ice age or a fiery tipping point? What do readers think?
Sponsored IT training links:
Complete 642-832 prep course with 70-646 dumps and EX0-101 practice exam to help you successfully complete your certification.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
The Independent newspaper’s “Expanding tropics ‘a threat to millions’” should be taken with a fistfull of sea salt bearing in mind they reported 10 years ago that “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.” They were given the information from(CRU) of the University of East Anglia in which Dr David Viner said that within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
How rare has snow been in the last 3 years in the northern hemisphere?
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
R. Gates (12:25:50) :
When we get snow in the UK like we had earlier this year it comes from the East. This is cold continental air, not warm maritime. When we get snow with a southerly wind, as we did also recently, it was returning maritime air that had picked up moisture and collided with cold air. Maritime and Returning Maritime
is always wet. Where is the cold air coming from?
Rather than look at the anomalies, I found the total ice extent by season to be more helpful.
Click on each season and you can make up your own mind.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1
Very Interesting …. and complex.
Or should I just quote a famous scientist and say “Fascinating”‘?
“”” The OtherDan (12:09:06) :
Tom P (11:25:23) :
Steven Goddard:
“According to Rutgers University data through mid February, Northern Hemisphere snow extent has been increasing at a rate of over 100,000 km2 per year.”
Not if you plot all the data:
http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/396/snowextent.png”
So Rutgers included data from 1965 and the author chose data only from 1990??. Is this true?
As I have previously said, despite the cool PDO, negative AO, AMO heading south, low solar activity, volcanic activity- winter temps and winter length just are no where near what they were in my youth (1960-1980). No 30 below nights, snow cover in April, whole weeks that struggle to get out of the single digits above zero. I came to this site years ago, hoping to find evidence that global warming was not real. Still looking. “””
Well if you search for the wrong thing you are bound to not find it. So did the anecdotal experience of your youth show that humans were not making global warming back then, like they are now.
If you want some anecdotal climate observations, I can give you one from just 30 minutes ago, as I went for my lunchtime walk in San Jose CA.
Normally, when I do that in February, it is already summer time in California; and the trees have had their blossoms, and now have new leaves.
In fact the set of trees that usually show me that behavior, have yet to sprout either blossoms or leaves; it looks like dead of winter foliage to me.
I must admit, that the daffodils have been showing for a couple of weeks now; but they are the exception.
As for proving there hasn’t been any man made global warming; we aren’t out to prove that; we just haven’t seen the proof from those who say that is and has happened. The onus of proof is on them; not us.
Now something isn’t going the way it is supposed to. Global Warming has stopped! What on Earth happened?
Big Al & Co., LLC, with financing from UN-known doners have probably been out seeding the clouds in the Northern Hemisphere since early December, trying to save us from ourselves. Soooo UN-Brilliant! Sooo UN-sell-fish! What a UN-man! What a classic UN-hero! Let’s kiss his UN-feet and nominate him for another UN-Nob-El Peas-prize.
R. Gates (12:25:50) :
To keep it in perspective, the nuances were named, the theory published, and the results didn’t match up with reality. Changing the theory in mid-stream to fit the cooling that could not be accounted for counts for nothing.
You either get it right the 1st time, or you get sent to the back of the line.
“You’ll be sorry” and “You can’t possibly understand” replies are not get-out-of Hypothetical Jail cards.
AGW, Global Warming, Climate Change, Day After Tomorrow, Global Warming causes Global Cooling…and whatever else gets dreamed up tomorrow… these things are less than convincing, and that is why they are being rejected.
Tom P,
I plotted the weekly data for the entire year (not just winter) and it turns out that for the last twenty years there has been an upwards trend of almost 14,000 km2/year.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/oimg?key=0AnKz9p_7fMvBdHBkREJtSmNlbm9xNnlza0JEcXUwZ2c&oid=1&v=1266440928003
Dr. Robert (10:44:55) :
Ever seen this page?
“The Al Gore Effect: Theoretical Basis”
http://brneurosci.org/gore.html
Leif,
Snow falls in the winter. Right?
Regardless, like I just posted the trend for the entire year is also upwards since 1989.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/oimg?key=0AnKz9p_7fMvBdHBkREJtSmNlbm9xNnlza0JEcXUwZ2c&oid=1&v=1266440928003
George E. Smith (13:07:21) :
“So Rutgers included data from 1965 and the author chose data only from 1990??. Is this true?”
Steven Goddard will confirm that he only chose data from 1989 in his plot. But only he can tell you why.
High precipitation would be a consequence of warmer oceans but as this season shows us for high snowfall it is necessary for there to be a strong negative Arctic Oscillation at the same time so that the warmed maritime air meets plenty of cold air in the mid latitudes and especially over the northern continents.
It seems to follow then that ice ages could develop when there is a long term persistence of warmer ocean surfaces and negative Arctic Oscillation. Probably for periods of thousands of years.
The AGW theory allows for warmer oceans and for the air circulation being pushed poleward with widening of the tropics. It also proposes more storms hence more precipitation in the tropics and mid latitudes but at the same time the subtropical dry regions are supposed to widen hence the fear of droughts.
The AGW theory does not allow for warmer oceans trying to widen the tropics but failing to do so because the negative mode of the Arctic Oscillation pushes back against it.
Under AGW theory the present scenario is impossible. A warm globe but the warmth failing to cross into the mid latitudes.
It’s interesting to note that the Arctic Oscillation is so very negative at the same time as the sun is less active. It was generally positive during the late 20th century when the sun was more active.
Coincidence or not ?
R. Gates – you pointed to the same graph I found.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=1
This certainly does not agree with Steve’s plot. If you discount 2010 (for which data is still incomplete, but it is clearly going to be a “banner year” in terms of NH snow cover), then from 1989 through 2009 there is essentially zero trend.
Someone here asked if there are any predictions for this summer. Joe Bastardi has one….warmer!
” I will give the warming crowd a bone here.. you will probably have more summer than last year in populated areas so you can start banging home that drum and an uptick in global hurricane activity, especially the Atlantic, is on the way. So there hold your fire for now, you will get what you want to make your point, even as the overall temp starts to cool….”
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather
… and in our little corner of Ohio, it appears in February 2010
we will bury the February 1918 record for days of snow cover:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ussc/USSCAppController?action=snowcover_me_bymonth&state=33&station=HIRAM&coopid=333780
Now that’s Global Warming !
I see that Joe Bastardi puts the strength of the negative AO down to sulphur pollution in the upper atmosphere from volcanoes.
I think that might be wrong but time will tell.
With that much snow cover in the Northern hemisphere, we should expect a very low temperature anomaly from GISS. Wonder how they will hide the decline this time?
kyle (11:20:49) :
The snows will end when spring will come, and it will be soon.
I bet nobody can debunk this: “winters have been getting shorter — spring arrives 10-14 days earlier than it did 20 years ago”
http://bit.ly/aqQ7d4
The UK Daily Telegraph has a try:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/7250517/Spectacular-spring-to-follow-the-big-freeze.html
O/T I’ve just seen the following post which reveals that SkepticalScience.com have released an “App” for the iPhone to enable users to rebuff any of us nasty “Deniers”
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/59845,news-comment,technology,climate-change-believers-fight-global-warming-sceptics-with-iphones
Keven Trenbeth is still a liar …. despite his defender here.
The last 7 January’s looks to me to snowier than any since the mid 1980’s
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=1
December looks like no change has occurred
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=12
October looks quite robust:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=10
I’ll give you November
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=11
Feburary … the oughts look quite robust
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=2
Admittedly the mid 1970’s were snowier. But thast when they were predicting a little ice age.
kyle (11:20:49) :
“The snows will end when spring will come, and it will be soon.
I bet nobody can debunk this: “winters have been getting shorter — spring arrives 10-14 days earlier than it did 20 years ago””
Last I heard, Winter started on Dec. 21 and Spring starts on March 21. Did I miss a meeting or something?
I’m not sure why everyone is getting so excited. This past Autumn and this Winter we’ve seen a rather rare combination of El Nino and a negative AO. Why the AO went so low could perhaps be blamed on volcanic activity. In any event, these 2 oscillations helped build 2 strong areas of stubborn high pressure (one over Greenland and eastern Canada; the other over the Pacific Northwest). The large trough of low pressure in between has been the catalyst for the cold, snowy North American winter weather. For Europe, the Greenland block has assisted in providing the cold wet conditions over Western Europe.
If this pattern persists for another 4-8 weeks over North America, it could set up for quite an active severe weather season for the Southern Plains and Southeast; but, the Cornbelt could see pretty dry conditions for the planting season. El Nino is suppose to weaken by summer, which could mean a northern retreat of the southern branch of the polar jet during the hot months of June and July; this would equate to plenty of rain for the Northern Plains and Canada during the later half of summer.
Of course, all of this is mute if El Nino conditions persist through August. What is fascinating is how extensive El Nino is during its peak months. If you subtract the amount of warmth El Nino provided to the globe during January, this would have been one 20 coldest January’s since 1979. But, the distribution of cold air would have been different -especially in the SH.
I certainly hope it is NOT an ice age.
On the other hand, I do hope for enough prolonged cooling so that AGW is permanently put on ice.
I guess I’m kind of a Goldilocks: Not too hot, not too cold…just right.
O/T
The dawn of the Electric Monk: “Dirk Gently’s Holistic Detective Agency”
http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/skeptical-science/id353938484?mt=8
“Thanks to an Australian solar physicist by the name of John Cook, you can access those skeptics’ arguments, and the science-based counter-arguments, on your iPhone.”
Once someone comes out with the skeptical version of the Good Book and with a bit of video game AI and Bluetooth we could simple put the phones on the table beside each other and have beer while the phones endlessly argue about whatever they have been programmed to believe.
I would expect that there will be a deeper book (deeper moves, better opens, and better end games) from the skeptical scientists shortly, then another from believers, and so on.
Electric Monks expounding on their beliefs.
Tweny years ago today I made a snowball and threw it at one of my kids, knocking him down. I repeated the experiment today. I stood in the exact same place, threw it just as hard, and I even checked in advance to ensure that it was the exact same kid. Despite all control factors being the same, the kid did not fall down, he didn’t even notice. This was an effect of global warming I did not expect, the density of snowballs dropping alarmingly. I was going to cut the snowball open and count the rings for future reference, but the kid was busy washing my face with it, another unexpected consequence of global warming.
Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.