ANOTHER BOLD PREDICTION OF AN ICE-FREE ARCTIC
Guest post by Mark Johnson
Al Gore trumpets the latest conclusions of Climate Change Advocate David Barber. “Sea ice in Canada’s fragile Arctic is melting more quickly than anyone expected,” says University of Manitoba Prof. David Barber, the lead investigator of the Circumpolar Flaw Lead System study released Friday. Barber is the lead investigator in the largest climate change study done in Canada. Barber said before the expedition, scientists were working under the theory that climate change would happen much more slowly.
It was assumed the Arctic would be ice-free in the winter by 2100. “We expect it will happen much faster than that, much earlier than that, somewhere between 2013 and 2030 are our estimates right now. So it’s much faster than what we would expect to happen. That can be said for southern climates as well.” “We’re seeing it happen more quickly than what our models thought would happen,” Barber said.
When you read the article, notice a few things:
1) The conclusions are ALL Based on CLIMATE MODELS.
2) Canada Government paid $156-million to Barber et al for the study.
3) The Inuit population are starting to chase the cash cow as well: “There’s also the need for economic development,” Hmmmmmm.
We have finally heard from the Great Climate Change Advocate Al Gore. On his obscure blog, Al says “Its worse than we thought.” Are you kidding me?
=====================
Obscure blog? Let’s look at the numbers for Al Gore -vs- WUWT and find out.
Yup.
In fact, WUWT does pretty well when you look at the entire family of web offering by Gore’s enterprises:
Keep those hits and links coming folks. Thanks – Anthony
NOTE: In the Alexa generated graphs above, the lower number the better for traffic rank. For example in the top graph, WUWT is around the top 10,000 trafficked sites on the web while alogore.com is in the top 100,000 trafficked sites on the web. It’s RANK not HITS.
Since some commenters are confused, here is the description from Alexa:
What is Traffic Rank?
The traffic rank is based on three months of aggregated historical traffic data from millions of Alexa Toolbar users and data obtained from other, diverse traffic data sources, and is a combined measure of page views and users (reach). As a first step, Alexa computes the reach and number of page views for all sites on the Web on a daily basis. The main Alexa traffic rank is based on a value derived from these two quantities averaged over time (so that the rank of a site reflects both the number of users who visit that site as well as the number of pages on the site viewed by those users). The three-month change is determined by comparing the site’s current rank with its rank from three months ago. For example, on July 1, the three-month change would show the difference between the rank based on traffic during the first quarter of the year and the rank based on traffic during the second quarter.
How Are Traffic Trend Graphs Calculated?
The Trend graph shows you the site’s daily traffic rank, charted over time. The daily traffic rank reflects the traffic to the site based on data for a single day. In contrast, the main traffic rank shown in the Alexa Toolbar and elsewhere in the service is calculated from three months of aggregate traffic data.
Daily traffic rankings will sometimes benefit sites with sporadically high traffic, while the three-month traffic ranking benefits sites with consistent traffic over time. Since we feel that consistent traffic is a better indication of a site’s value, we’ve chosen to use the three-month traffic rank to represent the site’s overall popularity. We use the daily traffic rank in the Trend graphs because it allows you to see short-term fluctuations in traffic much more clearly.
It is possible for a site’s three-month traffic rank to be higher than any single daily rank shown in the Trend graph. On any given day there may be many sites that temporarily shoot up in the rankings. But if a site has consistent traffic performance, it may end up with the best ranking when the traffic data are aggregated into the three-month average. A good analogy is a four-day golf tournament: if a different player comes in first at each match, but you come in second at all four matches, you can end up winning the tournament.
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May I recommend that Al Gore travel to the Arctic to popularize this melting of the ice, and as a former public servant, stop it. It seems that everytime Gore travels anywhere to pontificate about global warming his presence brings on a sudden cold snap. As a profligate user of personal jets this should be no inconvenience for him. Now I know this may cut into his carbon futures trading, but stopping that Arctic melt is truly the right thing to do.
What the?? Does Al have a triple plasma (or lcd) setup?? Man that guy… I wanna…..
Thanks for clearing that up. These are ranking numbers, not visitor numbers.
Jo Nova’s site also ranks very high: much higher than any of the pro-AGW sites.
“2) Canada Government paid $156-million to Barber et al for the study.”
I love how the gullible environmentalists love to claim skeptics are funded by special interests groups, and they(warmists) are fighting the corporations. Look at the gigantic funding for this rubbish paper.
That graph sounds like global warming -the more it snows, the warmer it must be!
Oh and an Explanation of my U S and A line…..
Looks like Stephen Harper has some public servants to spank. It would be better to do the Bernanke thing and dump money out of helicopters than fund ignorance. Of course ignorance of Al Gore’s type, clumps and settles into a mucky sludge that contaminates everything unless its purged.
Al seems a little slow on the uptake. The Barber study he’s pimping is the the famous “rotten ice” tripe that was dealt with here quite some time ago.
Hell I was pretty proud to break 100K. Very nice.
That $156 million looks imaginative. According to Barber’s CV, his total career grants (since 1993) come to $17.4 million.
REPLY: It’s likely 1.56 and missing a decimal point, may have happened in converting text, sometimes special characters don’t translate right into WP for some reason. Double checking with author. -A
2) Canada Government paid $156-million to Barber et al for the study.
So it isn’t just the American government that is stupid with money.
Mr, Barber is a rich man. We went gr$$n.
Why does Chicken Little keep getting paid so much gr$$n??
Jim (19:14:07) :
I don’t see where the prediction came from a computer model.
Did he do the calculation on paper then?
I think you could buy enough paper with $156 million. It would take a whole lot of time to write that whole thing out. But I suppose if you have $156 million you’ve got time to burn.
More news:
“Xerox, Marsh Also Out Of USCAP Climate Alliance
Looks like there’s a stampede to exit the United States Climate Action Partnership. Copier king Xerox (XRX) and insurance broker Marsh (MMC) apparently are no longer in the business-green alliance supporting cap-and-trade legislation, or so says Tom Borelli, director of the National Center for Public Policy Research’s Free Enterprise Project. On Tuesday, energy giants BP (BP) and ConocoPhillips (COP), along with heavy equipment maker Caterpillar (CAT), said they were leaving the group.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.investors.com …”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2453693/posts
Wait a second, wait a second…….there are people that actually think Al Gore’s web site gets more hits than WattsUpWithThat?
WattsUpWithThat!!
There are probably individual users that create more hits to WUWT than Al Gore gets in total to his.
Sorry Mark but did you read the article?
1 There was no mention of models. There was a comparison between the satellite data and observations from an ice breaker. These observations were made in the fall of 09 and have already been discussed in the media and on blogs. The satellites show indeed a modest recovery of the ice cover since 2007 but did not identify that the quality of the ice was different than that of multilayer solid ice . The term “rotten ice” was used which is a known composition of ice that is more brittle.
This inferior quality ice will melt faster in summer time. Any reader will be able to check this for him/herself this summer by checking the NSIDC
satellite pictures.
My question is : was this rotten ice formed because of a change in arctic ocean temperature/current, or a change in surface temperature/wind ? See also WUWT post 16/2 on Greenland glaciers.
Global Warming papers for sale. Hurry – only ten left. On any subject you want. Only $15.6 million each. Sorry guys – they’ve convinced me to switch sides !!
media coverage, some good, some hilarious…
2 pages: Forbes: Michael Fumento: Climate Change Of Pace
If medieval warming wasn’t manmade, then the recent warming may not be either.
http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/17/climate-change-skeptic-global-warming-opinions-contributors-michael-fumento.html?boxes=Homepagechannels
National Post, Canada: Lorne Gunter: They’re finally admitting the science isn’t settled
So Climategate also matters because if one of the most critical sources of climate data is suspect, then the conclusions in all the scores of studies based on that data are suspect, too.
The implications are huge and wide-ranging.
http://network.nationalpost.com/NP/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2010/02/17/lorne-gunter-they-re-finally-admitting-the-science-isn-t-settled.aspx
Kansas City Star: Climate change science passes the test of time
By Andrew Gunther, Special to The Kansas City Star
COMMENT BY READER: From Mr. Gunther’s website…
Climate Change: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions ..
Mr. Andrew Gunther, CEMAR’s Executive Director, was trained by Ex-Vice President Al Gore and his team of scientists and educators at The Climate Project to give the presentation featured in the Academy Award-winning documentary film An Inconvenient Truth. Dr. Gunther is available to give this hour-long presentation to your organization free-of-charge.
http://voices.kansascity.com/node/7625
Sydney Morning Herald, Australia: Matt Wade: Climate chief says he won’t bow to pressure to resign
(Pachauri): ”The volume of peer-reviewed material of various aspects of climate change has gone up substantially in recent years, and therefore, while the total effort required for completion of AR5 [the next IPCC assessment report due in 2013-14] would be huge in relation to previous assessments, it is expected that some gaps in knowledge that exist currently would be filled up to a great degree in the AR5..
Dr Pachauri accused climate change sceptics of targeting him as a way of discrediting climate change science and the IPCC.
”Having found a phenomenal increase in awareness on the subject around the world, they have decided to target me in my position as chairman of the IPCC and have sunk extremely low in trying to attack me personally with lies and falsehoods,” he added.
Dr Pachauri said he had been ”humbled” by the support given by various governments, civil society groups and scientists from across the world in the wake of the controversy.
”They have all either publicly or privately expressed their strong support to the IPCC and to me personally,” he said.
The IPCC’s next assessment would include ”new dimensions” such as the role of aerosols, clouds and black carbon in climate change…
It would also have a stronger focus on the regional impacts of climate change.
”We are already ensuring that all authors of the [next] report perform their review and background checks with diligence,” he said.
”We remain strongly committed to ensuring a high level of performance in verification of the sources of information and underlying material that we use for IPCC reports … the AR5, I am determined, would be as good a report as is humanly possible.”
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-chief-says-he-wont-bow-to-pressure-to-resign-20100217-odzw.html
Matt Wade who did the pachauri interview: Bangladesh’s Global Warning, Matt Wade: journalist and former TEAR fieldworker. The Age
http://www.tear.org.au/resources/items/climate-of-change/
TEAR is a Christian group with projects all over the place.
from wade’s bangladesh article last october: “Increased temperatures in the Himalayas means a torrent of additional melt-water from glaciers is gushing down the great rivers of India — the Ganges and the Brahmaputra — into the Bangladesh delta country, causing savage erosion. At the same time the nation’s coastal areas are being gradually inundated by the rising sea. “
Al Gore’s contribution to the Internet (Advanced Research Projects Administration (ARPA) Net at that time), was one of the “signers” on the funding.
They paid $156 million for what exactly?
I thought the science was settled shouldn’t they spend that amount of money to help the planet from heating up?
Whoever got an IQ at least bigger than 2 would find melting glaciers if they were going to be paid that much.
“No more snow in the European Alps”
Now I want a couple of millions.
maz2 (19:35:30) :
““Xerox, Marsh Also Out Of USCAP Climate Alliance…”
As they unwind their carbon positions, they will leave.
The last ones out will be clutching the balloon, then pop!
Then the shareholders lawyers will pick up the balloon and dust it for prints.
It always ends the same.
Nice beatdown anthony.
So the argument, in summary, goes like this:
1. Climate scientists have just completed a large, expensive study involving direct observation of the Arctic.
2. They have some things they they would like to tell us about what they found.
3. Al Gore thinks we should pay attention to those things.
4. Boy, is Al Gore stupid!
Not very impressive. I can only imagine the ecstasies the commenters here would be in if Barber et al had found the Arctic is better shape than feared. Or the rage they would be if a scientist bearing news they liked were dismissed with a similar syllogism:
1. Scientist has something to say about global warming.
2. WUWT thinks that what the scientist has to say is important.
3. Boy, is Anthony Watts stupid!
Yeah, I’ve commented about David Barber here before.
Recently David Barber seems to be ignoring the increase the last few years in ice area in the most northern parts of the Great White North claiming that they are just “rotten ice” whatever that really means.
David Barber also seems to have no problem making those assessments using anecdotal evidence that the ship he took up through the ice didn’t meet any dense ice pack flows. Sorry but unless they did a grid pattern search of the entire Arctic Sea area I think we need to rely on satellites rather than word of mouth.
It’s not surprising that Al Gore would pick up on David Barber’s public comments. I wonder what took him so long though.
pwl
http://PathsToKnowledge.NET
Careful Nick, you’re going to have posters on WUWT agreeing with you !!!
The $156 Million can’t be right. Although $156,000 sounds a bit low (if it’s that typo) – there’s no way anyone would get a grant of the $156 Million magnitude for that ….. errrmmmm … project.
REPLY: I’m betting its missing a decimal point 1.56 million. I’m checking with the author. -A
I find this WUWT post to be extremely confusing (and it has nothing to do with the inverted graph scale on the Alexa chart, heh). Let me attempt to explain why it is so confusing using the following relevant excerpt from the original post:
________Begin Excerpt________
When you read the article, notice a few things:
1) The conclusions are ALL Based on CLIMATE MODELS.
2) Canada Government paid $156-million to Barber et al for the study.
3) The Inuit population are starting to chase the cash cow as well: “There’s also the need for economic development,” Hmmmmmm.
We have finally heard from the Great Climate Change Advocate Al Gore. On his obscure blog, Al says “Its worse than we thought.” Are you kidding me?
=====================
Obscure blog? Let’s look at the numbers for Al Gore -vs- WUWT and find out.
________End Excerpt________
This makes no sense. I mean, I was following fine until the end of the third observation on the melting Arctic paper. Then suddenly we veer off into a random pissing match about whose blog is more obscure: WUWT or the Al Gore family of blogs. Ummmm… Huh???
Considering the amount of content and graphics devoted to arguing this highly obscure point (pun intended), I naturally assumed that Al Gore had made a nasty crack about WUWT being an “obscure blog” and that this was an attempt to set the record straight. That scenario might make sense (although it does seem like an odd digression since everyone here knows that WUWT is NOT obscure).
In any case, I searched Gore’s blog high and low for the word “obscure” and found no such remark. I even used Google to search Al Gore’s entire site for the word obscure and there’s not a single hit. This is why I’m left feeling disoriented and confused. What was the point of digressing off into this bizarre pissing match? Have I’ve missed something? Could someone PLEASE provide context? I’m lost!
Furthermore, why is it that we have two links to the Al Gore blog, one link to Alexa, but no link to the actual article that is the focus of this story? Thankfully, the user “Van Grungy” supplied one in the comments section, otherwise I might be even more lost than I already am… If that’s possible 🙂
http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2010/02/05/tech-climate-arctic-ice.html
REPLY: Sorry you are confused, but there are in fact TWO links to Al Gores blogs, the word “trumpets” in the first pargraph and the words “obscure blog” also contain a link. -A