From the BBC
By Roger Harrabin, Environment analyst, BBC News
Phil Jones, the professor behind the “Climategate” affair, has admitted some of his decades-old weather data was not well enough organised.
He said this contributed to his refusal to share raw data with critics – a decision he says he regretted.
But Professor Jones said he had not cheated the data, or unfairly influenced the scientific process.
He said he stood by the view that recent climate warming was most likely predominantly man-made.
But he agreed that two periods in recent times had experienced similar warming. And he agreed that the debate had not been settled over whether the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than the current period.
These statements are likely to be welcomed by people sceptical of man-made climate change who have felt insulted to be labelled by government ministers as flat-earthers and deniers.
‘Bunker mentality’
Professor Jones agreed that scientists on both sides of the debate could suffer sometimes from a “bunker mentality”.
He said “sceptics” who doubted his climate record should compile their own dataset from material publicly available in the US.
“The major datasets mostly agree,” he said. “If some of our critics spent less time criticising us and prepared a dataset of their own, that would be much more constructive.”
His colleagues said that keeping a paper trail was not one of Professor Jones’ strong points. Professor Jones told BBC News: “There is some truth in that.
“We do have a trail of where the (weather) stations have come from but it’s probably not as good as it should be,” he admitted.
=========================
h/t Andrew Montford, See more at the BBC here
Vukcevic (01:17:01) :
There is perfectly good explanation, and it is not to do either with the solar or volcanic forcing :
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/41/83/04/PDF/NATA.pdf
That looks a great piece of work and adds yet another level of complexity to the way that Climate works.
Now that Phil is admitting errors and other IPCC Members are admitting the IPCC is not doing a good job either, the walls of AGW are definitely crumbling.
Could his reason for starting to come clean be the upcoming Investigations and the loss of his mate Dr Cambell from the Panel?
Ron de Haan (20:29:55) :
You could not make this up!
_____________________________________________________
Here is the link to the original article
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/12/gordon-brown-climate-change-fundraising
I don’t know why you’re surprised Ron. We all know that Gordon Brown has lost his grip on reality. That was quite clear even before he claimed to have “saved the world” (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5319124.ece)
“Mr Brown will co-chair the United Nations High Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing with Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi.
The group aims to raise $30bn (£19bn) over the next three years – rising to $100bn annually by 2020 – to help poor countries limit their contribution to global warming and adapt to its effects.”
“This can’t all be done from taxpayer revenues” he said.
No kidding Gordon. The UK public sector debt was £740.6 billion as of December 2009 (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=206).
Gordon’s answer to the UK’s financial crisis? Give away billions of pounds that we don’t have to help the “poor countries” adapt to the effects of a phenomenon that remains purely hypothetical. (I don’t know whether to laugh or cry)
The one thing that seems to have escaped his notice is that thanks to his “financial prudence” the UK has become one of the “poor countries” to which he so patronisingly refers.
You’re right Ron; you could not make this up.
A little OT, but The Daily Telegraph’s “Warmista” columnist Geoffrey Lean, is slowly retreating from the “Science is Settled” position, into the “Well, if it’s only a 1% risk that your children will die in a plane crash, would you risk it?” one.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthcomment/geoffrey-lean/7223753/Do-we-want-to-ignore-climate-change-and-risk-losing-all-this.html
The 100+ comments so far, are virtually entirely deriding his position.
Last week (Or the week before?) he was trying to say that the decline being hidden was just an academic one about a few Siberian trees.
Result? A similar battering dished out by the readers.
Here’s the best one of the lot!
“Hello Sir
My name is Jason Lmamo. I am writing to your good self to introduce myself and to share a tiny problem which with your support we could resolve in a mutually profitable manner. And help save the planet.
At present a Nigerian Government Agency has deposited ten million US dollars in the Bank of Ecological Means and Measures in Lagos.
Unfortunately due to a security clause mistake in the Bank regulations, funds cannot be withdrawn by a Nigerian citizen without correlation by an overseas accredited third party. The account is now frozen unless such a foreign guarantee can be provided.
This is where, with your help and valued assistance, releasing these funds for Carbon Trading purposes will bring great benefit.
We know of your credentials in these matters and to ask for evidence of your probity would be an insult to your good name. This is why you were chosen for such a special task.
All we require is that you provide us with your Bank account details, number and not forgetting sort code, then the funds will be transferred to your Bank where impedance of access is no problem.
We will then ask for the moneys, less a ten percent handling fee for all the trouble you have been put to, to be deposited in the Jason Lmamo account at the Carbon Bank of Nigeria set up by no less than Mr Gore for such purposes.
Obviously your name speaks for itself and whilst the paltry commission will take second place to your endeavours in helping Mr Gore and others, we felt a gesture was only polite.
Jason Lmamo.
Substitute Jason Lmamo with Copenhagen and you’re there.”
Sounds like the Professor is trying to tell us that he is a little pregnant.
“But Professor Jones said he had not cheated the data, or unfairly influenced the scientific process.”
“And I am Marie of Roumania.”
————
Peter Hearnden (00:32:50) :
“OMG. He destroys Mann’s Hockey stick by admitting there was a MWP! This is huge! First time an alarmist has admitted that anything about AGW is not settled!”
The HS shows a MWP.
When Dr Michael Mann wrote about the HS in a British meteorological journal I have he talked about the MWP and LIA. Ok, that account doesn’t fit the myth but it’s, I’m sorry, the truth.
“Talked about it” is irrelevant; just look at the shape of the graph. “Talked about it” includes dismissing it. But he couldn’t not “talk about it,” as it’s common knowledge. He just tried to “hide the incline.”
Last Sunday’s UK Observer reported that Phil Jones contemplated suicide, but that it was only the love of his family that pulled him through.
This is immensely sad. Perhaps we should give him the benefit of the doubt. Clearly he has been devastated by what has happened recently. Bearing in mind some of his comments in this interview, he may be in the process of re-evaluating his world view.
Many, including myself, regard this belief in catastrophic climate change as a kind of religion. It’s never easy when you find yourself questioning your own religious beliefs (though I’m not religious myself). We live in interesting times….
Chris
I wonder if he would use the:
“Im not very good at keeping records-prove me wrong” attitude with Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs….and how much ice that cuts with HMRC?
He would be hauled in front of a judge for failing to keep proper accounts and tax evasion.
Al Gates Weather (AGW):
Gates: >>> “”The climate getting worse means many years that crops won’t grow from too much rain or not enough, leading to starvation and certainly unrest.”
…-
“Microsoft co-founder Gates tackling climate change
LONG BEACH, California (AFP) – Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has broken from philanthropic work fighting poverty and disease to take on another threat to the world’s poor — climate change.
“Energy and climate are extremely important to these people,” Gates told Friday a TED Conference audience packed with influential figures including the founders of Google and climate champion Al Gore.
“The climate getting worse means many years that crops won’t grow from too much rain or not enough, leading to starvation and certainly unrest.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2450529/posts
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/mt/mt-comments.cgi
“But he agreed that two periods in recent times had experienced similar warming. And he agreed that the debate had not been settled over whether the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than the current period.”
Sorry Congress. Ration and Tax has been CANCELED!
Chris Wright (04:13:30) :
Last Sunday’s UK Observer reported that Phil Jones contemplated suicide, but that it was only the love of his family that pulled him through.
This is immensely sad. Perhaps we should give him the benefit of the doubt. Clearly he has been devastated by what has happened recently. Bearing in mind some of his comments in this interview, he may be in the process of re-evaluating his world view.
Yes. Many of us have been there; the mind covers all the possibilities. But you may well be right about his “world view.” What is more useful in the long run is to change one’s ‘self view’ in relation to the world. I have found that this can take decades; probably the rest of life. Keeps me young. There is only change. There are no things, only processes.
A court of law, however, would not pat him on the back.
Richard Wakefield (17:52:17)>>
Very nice work with the animations! 🙂 Goes well in line with what John Christy is have been saying, right?
I fully accept the logic in saying; It hasn’t become warmer, merely less cold.
However, as I’ve understood the AGW theory, isn’t this actually in line with what they’re saying also?
Because the GHG:s slow down escaping heat, then wouldn’t this effect be most noticed during the coldest hours of each day (night)?
I guess there can be a multitude of other explanations for the Tmin rising but Tmax being static, such as increased cloud cover for example.
But still, aren’t the anomaly charts just a simpler way of showing what You have shown here?
Still… The correct thing to say is that it has become less cold and definitely not more warm.
Richard Wakefield (17:52:17) :
Excellent! Everyone should have a look at Richard’s work.
I believe the term ‘Bunker Mentality’ is a thinly veiled reference to Adolph Hitler’s state of mind during the fall of Berlin in World War II.
When we investigate embezzlement and fraud, people keep deliberately sloppy records and also delete information. This is in hopes of it being more difficult to catch them. Jones is out on the street and afraid of the people he trashed as shown by his messages. Without secret records and control, he is disarmed and helpless.
I think he has in his head a way to look at the Mid warm period and say it clearly shows not so cool.
Thanks to everyone for the comments, and suggestions. Working on part 2 which will look at the same data in a different way. Very interesting so far. I’d be interested in the radiative bit on the upper limit and add it to part 2, I think it is very relevant as to why the planet cannot “cook”.
Patrik, the point of this is to show that the simple anomaly graphs are too simple, they hide the details of what is actually going on with the physical world. Detail is important (at least to me, maybe not to Mann et al).
Notice I did not state what the cause of this trend is. Interesting that Jones is admitting that the warming from humans can only be shown, in their mind, from 1950 onwards. Since it is clear in their own graphs that 1945-1975 “cooled”, and we are not “warming” since 1998, that leaves only 30 years of warming by humans. Didn’t he say something about short times frames statistically insignificant? He has just destroyed AGW.
I did a plot on the change in CO2 from year to year (there is only reliable data from 1955 onwards) plotted against the change in max, nim and mean temp for each year on a scatter plot. The correlation coreficient is 0.14. Thus no correlation.
Thanks again guys, I should have Part 2 up by next weekend.
“Last Sunday’s UK Observer reported that Phil Jones contemplated suicide, but that it was only the love of his family that pulled him through.”
In an odd way, this is cheering news!
(That’s what Phil Jones wrote about the death of the skeptical scientist John Daly.)
Allan M (05:21:23) :
“There are no things, only processes.
After reading through even more comments on the Ravetz thread, I reckon that means that ‘sustainability’ is bollocks. But then the Marxists have the perfect solution, ho ho.
Yup. Wakefield’s video is definitely worth seeing:
It certainly opened my eyes!
The part I liked: First question labeled ‘A’”
A – Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical?
And the response:
So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other.
Without the MWP debate, this answer is jaw dropping — So what exactly was going on here?
“If some of our critics spent less time criticising us and prepared a dataset of their own, that would be much more constructive.”
Prof. Jones please!
We asked you the data because you was payed with public money for this job.
What are asking skepticals have to???
Data are property of both!!!!
You ever refuse to!
Prof. Jones please!
In (H) Jones answers “The fact that we can’t explain the warming from the 1950s by solar…”
Yes true… but only for TSI….Not ‘other’ factors such as the magnetic field of the sun… UV etc.
The sunspots are a symptom of underlying factors occurring deep inside the Sun, a bit like the spots of say measles being an outward sign of an underlying ‘disease’ in the body ..
Sunspots too are a symptom… of the suns magnetic field… e.g. strong field = more spots, and the reverse is true, no one knows what ’causes’ the sunspot cycle (or more accurately the suns magnetic cycle) and why their are somtimes ‘grand maximums and minimums.
It is the suns magnetic field that could well be the ’cause’ of global warming /(and cooling in particular !) during a ‘grand solar minimum’ by letting in cosmic rays from the background Galaxy, they, making/seeding cloud cover, (which being white) increases the Earths albedo reflecting away sunlight, thus cooling Earth
The fact is that ‘low spot activity’ on the Sun and cool periods on Earth has been noticed by astronomers for a very long time, (even William Herschel discoverer of Uranus) said in 1803 that “when there are few spots on the sun the price of wheat goes up” )
The best example being the ‘Maunder’ period on the sun, and the little ice age on Earth.
Dr. Jones suggested that all his work be re-done by the skeptics.
Is that even possible? Is there enough raw data that is known to be original and unaltered?
Doing the analysis is not trivial. The manpower to do it properly would be quite significant. Where does Dr. Jones suggest the funding come from? Perhaps UEA? If funding was provided by the oil or coal companies, it would have no credibility because bias would be assumed. Interesting that funding from governments and enviro groups is not deemed (by the MSM) to cause bias. The peer review process should address the bias, but that’s not working well is it?
CRU should be able to trace the origin of every bit of data they used. The fact that they can’t indicates the analysis needs to be done over. That’s pretty obvious. Getting the CRU to admit incompetence will be a real watershed, but it will likely take legal action to get there.
We need to be careful here. Do not quote from Harrabins story as fact. For example:
“most likely predominantly man-made.” was NOT what Jones said, that was in the article by Harrabin NOT the Q&A.
If you read a bit more of Professor Jones’ ‘admission’ – he talks about the weather last month – but points out that the satellite records at University of Alabama in Huntsville show January 2010 to be the warmest January ‘since records began in 1979…’
I fell about laughing…
From Orwell, apply to Phil Jones:
“To tell deliberate lies while genuinely believing in them, to forget any fact that has become inconvenient, and then when it becomes necessary again, to draw it back from oblivion for just so long as it is needed…”
Professor Jones craves and receives a constant stream of sympathy here in UK. He gets loads of public taxpayers money to do his job as do many global warmists and complains that he has been working heroically in a litter bin which doubles for an office constantly harassed by sceptics. Well stroll on! He could go and get an honest job hedge laying or hod carrying as he appears to be particularly unsuitable for cooking science.