Steve Goddard points out that warm SST events often have a downside. My view: something like capacitor discharge in an RC circuit. – Anthony
Dr. Roy Spencer reported that January, 2010 was the warmest on record at +0.72C anomaly after a relatively cool +0.28 in December. Dr. Spencer is one of the most trustworthy players in climate science and clearly does not have a warming agenda. So is earth’s climate warming out of control after all?
To answer this question, it is worth looking back at the “second warmest January” which came in 2007. Like 2010, January, 2007 also took a big jump up from the previous month and was at the peak of an El Nino. The warm weather led the Met Office and to forecast a record warm year. Hansen also speculated about the possibility of a “Super El Nino.”
4 January 2007
2007 – forecast to be the warmest year yet
2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070104.html
But the Met Office was wrong in 2007. Instead of breaking the temperature record, temperatures plummeted nearly 0.8C to below normal after El Nino quickly faded – as you can see in the graph below.
Source : Wood For Trees – Late 2006 to mid 2008
One big difference between January, 2007 and January, 2010 is that this time around, land temperatures are not so warm. Many parts of the planet have been reporting near record cold temperatures, in particular Europe, Siberia, Antarctica and the US.
So what is going on in 2010? Bob Tisdale has reported that this is the warmest El Nino since 1998.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/02/preliminary-january-2010-sst-anomaly.html
The ocean makes up 2/3 of the planet and dominates the global temperature average. Bob reports that “NINO3.4 SST anomalies peaked about five weeks ago and they’ve been dropping like a stone” so we may be in for a repeat of 2007. The Met Office is doing their part to make it happen.
Met Office : Climate could warm to record levels in 2010
10 December 2009
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091210b.html
In the meantime, try to stay warm during the “record heat.”
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp3.html
Flashback to 2007
Dr. Roy Spencer reported that January, 2010 was the warmest on record at +0.72C anomaly after a relatively cool +0.28 in December. Dr. Spencer is one of the most trustworthy players in climate science and clearly does not have a warming agenda. So is earth’s climate warming out of control after all?
To answer this question, it is worth looking back at the “second warmest January” which came in 2007. Like 2010, January, 2007 also took a big jump up from the previous month and was at the peak of an El Nino. The warm weather led the Met Office and to forecast a record warm year. Hansen also speculated about the possibility of a “Super El Nino.”
4 January 2007
2007 – forecast to be the warmest year yet
2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070104.html
But the Met Office was wrong in 2007. Instead of breaking the temperature record, temperatures plummeted nearly 0.8C to below normal after El Nino quickly faded – as you can see in the graph below.
Source : Wood For Trees – Late 2006 to mid 2008
One big difference between January, 2007 and January, 2010 is that this time around, land temperatures are not so warm. Many parts of the planet have been reporting near record cold temperatures, in particular Europe, Siberia, Antarctica and the US.
So what is going on in 2010? Bob Tisdale has reported that this is the warmest El Nino since 1998.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/02/preliminary-january-2010-sst-anomaly.html
The ocean makes up 2/3 of the planet and dominates the global temperature average. Bob reports that “NINO3.4 SST anomalies peaked about five weeks ago and they’ve been dropping like a stone” so we may be in for a repeat of 2007. The Met Office is doing their part to make it happen.
Met Office : Climate could warm to record levels in 2010
10 December 2009
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091210b.html
In the meantime, try to stay warm during the “record heat.”
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp3.html
R. Gates (14:11:19)
“…. Now we are seeing an increasingly active sun with its irradiance steadily increasing toward the solar max of 2013.”
increasingly active sun??? Last I checked it was still trying to crawl out of the basement up to the level of the minimums of the recent solar cycles. I think it still has a long way to go to be considered “active” like next year not next month.
see the layman’s count comparison to cycle 5 http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc5_sc24.png
Mike Guerin (14:41:41) :
That’s why people resort to proxies. I think it was Jo d’Aleo who did a great job recently bringing many together – no tree rings :^)
It is the hsitorical, snd archselogicsl record that I trust most; this goes back a few thousand years.
I have a plea to make to the Met Office.
Will you please stop predicting hot summers? I am sick and tired of freezing to death on my sun bed.
kwik (13:40:34) : You asked, “The el Nino, is it a result of one of the so called conveyor belt’s ?”
Nope. It’s a coupled ocean-atmosphere process extending across the tropical Pacific. Here are links to two NOAA FAQ web pages about ENSO:
http://faculty.washington.edu/kessler/occasionally-asked-questions.html
and:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/enso_faq/
… “Plus of course, we have more CO2 and methane in the atmosphere than in 2007,” … from R. Gates comment
Not to be a pragmatist but the world has been in a deep recession for the last year and industrial activity has been declining since the beginning of 2007.
Where is all this increasing “man made” CO2 and Methane coming from?
kadaka (14:07:55) :
I see. Well, if one doesnt know the true nature of these conveyor belts….how wide, how deep, their temperature, the speed…..then there is no way one can ever model the climate.
Or does these sensors deployed as I saw on a map the other day, measure temperature, speed and direction? Just wondering. Cant know everything, you know.
hehe.
kadaka (14:07:55): Refer to reply to kwik above. The processes are well studied, but the real question is what will initiate a given El Nino.
Steve
I agree that the Met Office long term (experimental) forecasts have proved that they cannot yet model seasonal trends. It a good decision to withdraw them.
But an easterly wind in winter in the UK for a couple of days does not have much of an impact on global temperatures (I always find that if the UK is colder than average, Moscow is warmer than average – the cold war has more than one front – so some places are colder while other are warmer). But assuming the Met office can use a thermometer properly – you seem happy to quote their short term forecasts, the long term global trend over a long period is up and will contiue up given the temperatures over the last few years.
What mechanism will make the temperatures fall below the 30 year average for long enough to start make the trend flat, never mind fall? I hear a lot of arguements saying the temperatures are being manipulated and the physics twisted but that would make all climate science into a good old fashion western (black and white hats), but there are some adults out there that are sceptics who understand a grey world.
wws (14:58:13) said:
Oh no, I am sure you are wrong. Why would the media and those lawyers and the Government say otherwise?
john pattinson (14:23:59) :
You have to paddle your own canoe when it comes to what’s going on with the climate. Skepticism has sharply increased due to very bad forecasts, which are in turn based on model output which come from suspicious Climategate data doings.
You can believe, at this point, what you can see & observe for yourself.
Beyond that, it’s totally up to you.
May I suggest that if you are well to do, that you travel to the South Pacific in Search Of the hot oceanic anomaly?
wws (14:58:13) :
“Okay, I gotta say something about Pachouri’s idiotic asbestos comment. I know it isn’t really on topic and it doesn’t really matter in any big way, but it does point out what an idiot Pachouri is.
There is *Nothing* poisonous about Asbestos! ….The *only* way asbestos is dangerous is if it is ground into a form where it becomes a dust that hangs in the air, and you stay in that atmosphere breathing it for many years.
AND you have to smoke cigarettes too. Cigarettes wipe out the cilia in the lungs that would normally sweep these particles out of the lungs. There have been a lot of people killed because of the ban against both asbestos and freon but no one ever documents that.
Thanks wws for bring up that bit of truth.
john,
Moscow has been far below normal this winter.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UUEE/2009/12/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=6&monthend=2&yearend=2010&req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
as has London
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EGLL/2009/12/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=1&monthend=1&yearend=2010&req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
Having had some experience with asbestos, I would highly recommend that you stay away from it. It is nasty stuff in either your lungs or skin.
ENSO cycles at less than half the rate of the annual cycle on average, so a dose of reality is encouraged. It takes awhile to come down off an ENSO high – and the thing doesn’t have stationary periodicity – and it isn’t understood like the tides (yet) – so speculation is gambling. If my life depended on betting money, I’d put money on 2014 plus or minus a few years for a circulation/redistribution regime shift. My impression is that a lot of folks have been fooled by 1998. See here:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/ChristmasTreeIndex.PNG
and here:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/RegimeChangePoints.PNG
and here:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/100204.PNG
It has been my observation over my 50+ years of living on this planet that periods of weather that are unusually extreme in one direction are often followed by periods that are unusually extreme in the other and that an “average” year is very rare. “Average” isn’t a mode. It is just an average.
A period of drought is often broken by floods. A heat wave broken by unseasonably cool,
“There is *Nothing* poisonous about Asbestos! ”
What has always tickled me is how they treat asbestos when they remove it. It is almost as if they have to “seal” it from the environment.
I have a better idea. The best place to put asbestos is right back where they found it … in old asbestos mines. Maybe that will return some jobs to the areas that were devastated when asbestos mining was cut back. It is a natural mineral, not a man made substance. If you want to get rid of it, just put it back where you got it from to begin with!
R Pearse (13:57:55) :
“I was wondering if anyone was looking into any correlation between plate techtonics and ocean temp”
I’ve wondered this too. The ocean is 71% of Earth’s surface, ocean crust on average varies between 5 km and 10 km in thickness compared to an average of 35 km to 70 km for continental crust, and ocean crust is softer than the granite that largely comprises the continental crust.
No wonder then that 80% of the known active volcanoes are in the seas. My guess would be that the tremendous weight of water pushing down would help to push a tear down into the mantle, where the magma would be free to well up and form islands.
So, the weight of the water would in effect help separate plates along tectonic boundaries in some places, which is why the Ring of Fire wraps around the whole Pacific plate. For island chains such as Hawaii where we describe a “hot spot” that the Pacific plate slides over creating new islands, couldn’t this hot spot be due to a thin crust deformed by the weight of the water?
I would wonder too if undersea volcanoes tend to erupt longer due to the forces describes above. How many are continuously erupting? How many yet to be found? Look at the mid-ocean ridge, the apparent engine of plate tectonics, how much energy does the ridge contribute to the oceans?
crosspatch (15:47:31) :
“There is *Nothing* poisonous about Asbestos! ”
….. It is a natural mineral, not a man made substance.”
Yes, I have a really nice “crystal” of asbestos in my mineral collection. My father used to sell the stuff and I played with it as a kid. I think old Patchy was thinking of fiberglass when he made that statement. The asbestos material and cloth Dad had was soft.
I think we’re in danger of too much naval gazing over whatever the latest global temperature is.
When you consider all of the potential influences on our climate, including increasing CO2, you end up with chaos, and, as any card player will tell you, the more you shuffle the pack the more unusual the distribution.
So let’s see…
We have
cold land masses… check
a phasing out El Nino that belched lots of heat out… check
a not so active sun… check
many volcanos that could erupt… check
I don’t know about you guys, but this is much more scarier than global warming.
Huh, but capacitors heats up the higher charge they get or the more they’re constantly used during a longer time. Of course this isn’t a problem as long as you keep the surrounding at like 10 below, but still…
Of course a capacitor can get colder the warmer it’s supposed to get… :p
Steve
Thanks for the lesson in using links on the nternet. Have you seen this one yet
http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_monthly.html?channel=tlt and hit the anomaly button
Of course its all about periods short or long
Gail Combs (14:59:32) :
An update on the SOHO and STEREO images of the Sun, with an example of Solar Maximum below that showing what it looked like.
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/DeepSolarMin9.htm
OK – Everything is packed up, food (tinned), clothes & locked up the house – everything turned off – gas, electricity – post cancelled. Kids laden with books and clothes on travois. Mass migration to Spain about to commence. We are meeting 36 other families on the way through France. Going on foot because fuel too expensive! Wind-up radio tuned to AlGore.FM for latest updates. Hang on a minute – Didn’t our ancestors used to do this? Yes – but without the b***ard taxes, and a freedom to roam without hindrance. How did they survive? Who knows, they did – we will, and it will be another great journey in the story of “Life on Earth”. Someday, hundreds if not thousands of years in the future, scholars will try to work out how we did it in such an inhospitable environment. B***ocks say I, we booked a package tour to Spain via Thomas Cook just like half of Great Britain do every year. The only problem is we have to pay too much tax to go by plane that this year we tried to sneak in on a fishing boat. It took 2 weeks to get the smell out of my shorts!!
Cue song: “When will they ever learn?”
Is El Nino a part of or related to the Indo Pacific Warm Pool?