Gate Du Jour: IPCC AR4 references NYT story

“Cold Showers, Rotting Food, the Lights, Then Dancing” – Title of Pachauri’s next novel maybe?

WUWT commenter “Galileonardo” writes:

I found this reference to the New York Times in WGII 14.4.6. Just thought it should be part of the growing record:

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch14s14-4-6.html

The reference reads (Wilgoren and Roane, 1999) and is the source for the following claim:

Unreliable electric power, as in minority neighbourhoods during the New York heatwave of 1999, can amplify concerns about health and environmental justice.

The AR4 reference page can be found here:

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch14s14-references.html

It reads:

Wilgoren, J. and K.R. Roane, 1999: Cold Showers, Rotting Food, the Lights, Then Dancing. New York Times, A1. July 8, 1999

That article can be found here:

http://www.nytimes.com/1999/07/08/nyregion/aftermath-heat-wave-neighborhoods-cold-showers-rotting-food-then-lights-then.html?pagewanted=1

I’m not sure who peer reviewed it.

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Steve
February 2, 2010 8:35 am

“Environmental Justice.”
What rubbish. I REALLY don’t think most people will buy such tripe.

Steve Oregon
February 2, 2010 8:38 am

Imagine the whoppers that will be delivered here.
I can’t quite find the words to describe such a complete disregard for the unraveling of AGW.
http://www.americanprogress.org/events/2010/02/climatescience.html/streaming.html
The Science of Climate Change
February 3, 2010, 12:00pm – 1:30pm
Watch this Event Live
About this Event
Due to high demand, we have reached capacity and the event is now closed. A live webstream will be available here. We apologize for any inconvenience.
An overwhelming quantity of direct observations and analyses published by scientists in various disciplines around the world demonstrates that human activity has warmed the planet and altered the climate. The severity of the projected impacts of continuing on our current greenhouse gas emissions path has only increased in recent years.

Steve
February 2, 2010 8:39 am

Most of the developing world deals with unreliable power. It’s really only here in the west where we get all “in a twist” when the lights go out.
Just got back from India where rolling blackouts are a normal thing in the middle of summer… or anytime it rains… or any time any of the sketchy components of the over-stressed grid get cranky.
Ironically, as most of us understand, it’s the enviro-nut policies that would only make this worse.

February 2, 2010 8:43 am

Vinceo (07:29:48) :
“We need a collective noun for all the gates. “A labyrinth of gates”? “An exposure of gates”? “A paddock of gates”? “A denouement of gates”?”
I love collective nouns! My favourite is a murder of crows.
Of gates?
A ‘Bill’? Too easy.
A ‘sweetness’?
A ‘condominium?’
A ‘toothpaste?’
A ‘radical?’
A ‘skeptic?’
A ‘denialist?’

February 2, 2010 8:47 am

The UEA just released a statement claiming that the climategate files were all together on a single server
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/02/02/uea-files-were-on-a-single-server/

adam in california
February 2, 2010 8:48 am

Just found this email ….
To: Punxsutawney.Phil@xxxxxx.xxx
From: Phil.Jones@xxxxxxxxx.xx.xx
Subject: Hiding the shadow – Something to keep between us Phils
Phil –
It has been a while. I have been swamped with “climate gate” matters and FOI investigations but thought I’d drop you a note as you prepare for your annual appearance at Gobbler’s Knob.
You’d be doing me and my fellow climate scientists a great favour were you to come out this year and avoid seeing your shadow so that the media can report “More Signs of Global Warming”. Perhaps you could even do this whilst wearing some beach wear – a “mankini” perhaps.
Be a pal and hide the shadow.
Many thanks.
Phil

Ron de Haan
February 2, 2010 8:49 am

Marc Moreno on Alex Jones tv NASA Scientist demands end to industrial society and more!!!!!!!!
http://www.prisonplanet.com/marc-morano-on-alex-jones-tv-nasa-scientist-demands-end-to-industrial-society.html

Hans Moleman
February 2, 2010 8:55 am

Garry (08:27:04) :
“AR4 unquestionably states that “unreliable power” is a secondary effect of climate change, and that is what caused the outage.”
Wrong. It states “Climate change will likely lead to substantial increases in electricity demand for summer cooling in most North American cities” then later talks of the problem of unreliable electrical power when responding to summer heat demands, citing the NY Times article which covers exactly that. In your words: “the [1999] outage was caused solely by aging equipment, inadequate load planning, and deferred maintenance.”
Unreliable power is already a problem when responding to current summer heat demands. If summers get warmer, it’s likely that problem will only get worse.

Clive
February 2, 2010 8:57 am

Several Punxsutawney comments. Funny stuff. I found this reference in AR4. ☺
Phil, Punxsutawney, 2009. The decadal variability of winter duration in the Northern Hemisphere: Cause for concern. J. Rodent Sci.. 60, 131 – 148.

Curt
February 2, 2010 8:59 am

This story does remind me of the famous spoof of a New York Times headline:
“World Ends — Women, Minorities Hardest Hit”

Curt
February 2, 2010 9:19 am

Hans (08:55:06):
You just restated perfectly how power outages would be a secondary effect of climate change, thus making Garry’s point. (Not to mention that the whole chapter is on the subject of effects of climate change — if it is not a supposed effect of climate change, then it should not even be in the chapter.)

Hans Moleman
February 2, 2010 9:45 am

Curt (09:19:06) :
“You just restated perfectly how power outages would be a secondary effect of climate change, thus making Garry’s point. (Not to mention that the whole chapter is on the subject of effects of climate change — if it is not a supposed effect of climate change, then it should not even be in the chapter.)”
Garry’s point was that the IPCC said Climate Change will cause power outages (including the one in the Times article). They said no such thing.

CarlNC
February 2, 2010 10:27 am

NYC is a crowded place with infrastructure problems. To suspect that an increase of a couple of degrees in temperature will have an impact on failure rates is valid, and is a good premise to start a study. It appears they forgot the study part and jumped to the conclusions page. It’s starting to appear that this is normal for the IPCC.

Curt
February 2, 2010 10:28 am

Hans Moleman (09:45:41) :
Are you being deliberately obtuse? You keep making Garry’s point for him, then saying he’s wrong.
In a chapter on the effects of climate change, the IPCC states that climate change will increase electrical demand for cooling on very hot days (primary effect). This increased demand on very hot days increases the possibility of failures on electrical grids, particularly those with insufficient capacity and poor maintenance (secondary effect).
It’s actually a completely plausible claim — that isn’t the issue. As you said yourself, ” If summers get warmer, it’s likely that problem will only get worse.” The issue raised here is the citing of an anecdotal newspaper account as evidence in a supposed scientific document.

Roger Knights
February 2, 2010 10:38 am

Peter of Sydney (03:24:50) :
It’s really up to someone or some group to take the battle to the courts and get some of the AGW alarmists at the IPCC behind bars.

I don’t agree that imprisonment, or even a fine, is appropriate. Our focus should be on fixing the scientific process so that it it is more open and democratic and can’t be hijacked. (CAWG is only one instance of this — this emerging stem cell business is another.)
However, a commenter here a couple of months ago said something that was so clever that it deserves recycling: “Mann should go from Penn State to state pen.”

Roger Knights
February 2, 2010 10:42 am

Curt (10:28:17) :
Hans Moleman (09:45:41) :
………
The issue raised here is the citing of an anecdotal newspaper account as evidence in a supposed scientific document.

Not really. The NYT reference was only to support the very obvious point that lack of power leads to civil unrest by citing an instance of it. The NYT cite wasn’t used to support anything of a scientific nature.

February 2, 2010 10:46 am

Hi – I’ve linked to this post in my Top Tips for Tuesday – hope this is ok, please tell me if not.
http://draughtyoldfentales.blogspot.com/2010/02/tuesday-2-february.html

J.Peden
February 2, 2010 10:54 am

Alexander Feht (01:06:44) :
Other people who acted the way they talked: Thomas Torquemada, John Calvin, Vladimir Ulyanov (Lenin), Adolf Hitler, Osama bin Laden…
One possibly relevant correction, Alexander. OBL did not commit suicide in order to kill “infidels”, at least as far as we know, which is what he was telling his noble minions to do in order to avoid being an infidel themselves and meet with Allah and the Virgins. He’s more like a lot of the so called Environmentalists who don’t practice what they preach as a core “value” – or in many cases a full blown Cult fetish – but vilify everyone else including the only economic system that works, Capitalism, and offer us the Slavery of Communism or Fascism, a distinction without a difference, instead.

Sioned L
February 2, 2010 10:56 am

Don’t know if anyone looked at the IPCC Reference page, but just several lines above the citation to the NYTimes article is a reference to a Seattle Times article.
I tried the link but came up with nothing.
Welch, C., 2006: Sweeping change reshapes Arctic. The Seattle Times. Jan. 1 2006. [Accessed 12.02.07: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/ 2002714404_arctic01main.html

Curt
February 2, 2010 11:02 am

What civil unrest is there in that article? People bitching about loss of power?

Garry
February 2, 2010 11:10 am

(10:28:17) & @Hans Moleman (09:45:41) : “The issue raised here is the citing of an anecdotal newspaper account as evidence in a supposed scientific document.”
Thanks Curt for the defense 🙂
The AR4 statetement is like asserting that “Some social justice advocates believe urban apartment fires are caused by rising global temperatures,” and then citing random NY Times articles about NY apartment fires to prove that those “social justice advocates” are right, and that global warming (rather than deferred oven cleaning) causes apartment fires.
Utterly ridiculous.
I’m a computer guy and not a scientist, but I can say that this is a false logical construct and most definitely it is not “science” except in the odd and whacky CRU/AR4/IPCC/Mann/Jones scientific modes of the 21st century.

Ray
February 2, 2010 11:13 am

The IPCC AR5 will reference to itself (i.e. IPCC AR4)…

Garry
February 2, 2010 11:19 am

Knights (10:42:27) :”The NYT reference was only to support the very obvious point that lack of power leads to civil unrest by citing an instance of it.”
No.
The AR4 direct quote is: “Unreliable electric power, as in minority neighbourhoods during the New York heatwave of 1999, can amplify concerns about health and environmental justice (Wilgoren and Roane, 1999).”
In fact, “(Wilgoren and Roane, 1999)” is a NY Times newspaper article, which article provides no support or assertion or reporting of any kind whatsoever that anything (let alone “global warming”) is responsible for any event or factor relating to the July 1999 power outage.
The citation is completely bogus, used exclusively to support the author’s own point of view, and not only is that cite to an anecdotal newspaper account (not to any peer-reviewed science), but it’s also a cite to an account that doesn’t in any manner support or bolster the author’s assertion about “amplified concerns about… environmental justice.”
The citation would have been equally valid if had been to my grandmother’s recipe for fried chicken.

Arthur Glass
February 2, 2010 11:31 am

” The IPCC report says nothing about the blackout in the NY Times article being caused by climate change.”
Then what is the point of the citation?

Arthur Glass
February 2, 2010 11:37 am

“…the blackout in the NY Times article…’
You mean the article was censored?