From NOAA news: NOAA Scientist Finds Clue to Predicting Solar Flares
Forecasters at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
For decades, experts have searched for signs in the sun that could lead to more accurate forecasts of solar flares — powerful blasts of energy that can supercharge Earth’s upper atmosphere and disrupt satellites and the land-based technologies on which modern societies depend. Now a scientist at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and her colleagues have found a technique for predicting solar flares two to three days in advance with unprecedented accuracy.
The long-sought clue to prediction lies in changes in twisting magnetic fields beneath the surface of the sun in the days leading up to a flare, according to the authors. The findings will be published in Astrophysical Journal Letters next month.
“For the first time, we can tell two to three days in advance when and where a solar flare will occur and how large it will be,” said lead author Alysha Reinard, a solar physicist at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, a partnership between NOAA and the University of Colorado.
Twisting magnetic fields beneath the surface of the sun erupt into a large solar flare, as shown above.
High resolution (Credit: NSF)
The new technique is already twice as accurate as current methods, according to the authors, and that number is expected to improve as they refine their work over the next few years. With this technique, reliable watches and warnings should be possible before the next solar sunspot maximum, predicted to occur in 2013. Currently, forecasters see complex sunspot regions and issue alerts that a large flare may erupt, but the when-and-where eludes them.
Solar flares are sudden bursts of energy and light from sunspots’ magnetic fields. During a flare, photons travel at the speed of light in all directions through space, arriving at Earth’s upper atmosphere—93 million miles from the sun—in just eight minutes.
Almost instantly the photons can affect the high-orbiting satellites of the Global Positioning System, or GPS, creating timing delays and skewing positioning signals by as much as half a football field, risking high-precision agriculture, oil drilling, military and airline operations, financial transactions, navigation, disaster warnings, and other critical functions relying on GPS accuracy.
“Two or three days lead time can make the difference between safeguarding the advanced technologies we depend on every day for our livelihood and security, and the catastrophic loss of these capabilities and trillions of dollars in disrupted commerce,” said Thomas Bogdan, director of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.
Reinard and NOAA intern Justin Henthorn of Ohio University pored over detailed maps of more than 1,000 sunspot groups, called active regions. The maps were constructed from solar sound-wave data from the National Science Foundation’s Global Oscillation Network Group.
Reinard and Henthorn found the same pattern in region after region: magnetic twisting that tightened to the breaking point, burst into a large flare, and vanished. They established that the pattern could be used as a reliable tool for predicting a solar flare.
“These recurring motions of the magnetic field, playing out unseen beneath the solar surface, are the clue we’ve needed to know that a large flare is coming—and when,” said Reinard.
Rudi Komm and Frank Hill of the National Solar Observatory contributed to the research.
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Note to Editors: The paper has been accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal Letters in February: “Evidence that temporal changes in solar subsurface helicity precede active region flaring,” by Alysha Reinard, Justin Henthorn, Rudi Komm, and Frank Hill.
Louis Hissink (01:19:20) :
Twisting magnetic fields?
They are Birkeland currents which twist and hence the magnetic fields associated with those currents then become twisted as well, as observed.
However you cannot twist a magnetic field in the lab, but you can twist the current that produces that magnetic field.
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Thanks Louis…….. Currently cyclone watching and battening down the hatches for Cyclone Olga here in Cairns…. So didn’t spot your response before.
“Gregg E. (00:12:02) :
Let’s hear it for real science!
(That room in the photo, it looks like it could be a starship bridge set for a movie.) ;)”
You mean a movie spoof, like Airplane II, right?
Predicting solar flares, I mean, as if!!!
Louis Hissink (01:19:20) :
“However you cannot twist a magnetic field in the lab”
Yes, you simply spin a mass of magnetic material in the field. To create a twisted magnetic field within the Sun all I think that you would need is to have something like a tornado operating under the surface more or less perpendicular to two of the Suns magnetic poles.
This is the reason why there were “Third-brush generators” where used in cars before the introduction of the alternator, to allow the generating coils to be moved back into the magnetic field when the RPM of the generator increased.
http://www.theviperr.info/hobo_dnn/Default.aspx?tabid=144
Is anyone else thinking, “the next generation of military weaponry”? If this action results in an explosion that disrupts all kinds of things electronic, I can envision Lex Luther coming up with a new kind of plasma laser beam pointed at someone he doesn’t like, ready to blast a plasma/particle stream right up their hiney parts.
Correct me if I am wrong, but the varying speed of the conveyor belts circling the Sun is what twists the ropes. This new prediction technique has been made available because we have several ways now of looking past the surface of the Sun into a few outer layers, gaining earlier information regarding the beginnings of the twists. This is not that earth shattering but is an expected result and application of the gathered data regarding the inner layers of the Sun.
Does the continued twisting magnetic field of a wannabe solar flare eventually cause it to twist itself beyond its elastic limit, and so stretch itself into a suicidal finale? And if a big electric current is flowing along it when it snaps, what happens with the effect of that presumably stupendous di/dt? Is there an incredible spark like a huge lightning discharge thousands of miles long? Does the enormous electromagnetic energy radiated from that spark cause our problems when it arrives on Earth? Just wondering….
But as a more practical question, isn’t the prediction of a peak in Cycle 24 during 2013 a bit optimistic? Would 2014 be more likely?
Bob
Clive E Burkland (06:22:10) :
Sunspot 1040 which was from the same region and displayed similar characteristics did not show the same dip in TSI. Is there a difference between the two regions?
When I look I see the dip as expected. Here are the numbers:
2010 1 9 2010.020272 1361.0872
2010 1 10 2010.02301 1361.0885
2010 1 11 2010.025747 1361.0084
2010 1 12 2010.028485 1360.8926 ==== 1040
2010 1 13 2010.031223 1360.8956 ==== 1040
2010 1 14 2010.033961 1360.9406
2010 1 15 2010.036699 1361.0838
2010 1 16 2010.039437 1361.2007
=======================
Generally, the magnetic field and the plasma in the corona are tied together and to the magnetic field in the photosphere and below. Because sunspots and their magnetic fields are moving around a bit, rotation of the spot will twist the field lines that stretch up into the corona. The region close to the Sun varies in what pushes what around. Low down the plasma energy is strong enough to dominate over the magnetic field, as you move up, the magnetic field dominates and guides the plasma, and yet further up [into the solar wind] the plasma again dominates the field and drags it along. The frozen-in condition is only weakly fulfilled in the lower regions because the conductivity is quite low. In the photosphere, the conductivity is only that of seawater, so there can be slippage between field and plasma. Higher up in the corona and the solar wind, the conductivity is extremely high and no slippage occurs. When slippage takes place, plasma and field will be moving relative to each other and electric currents arise and ‘explosions’ can occur that drive the CMEs. It is important to be clear about what drives what. [Electric] Currents are driven by changes [e.g. twisting] of the magnetic field. This is all well-known and NOAA can use this fact to help predict the ‘storms’.
Good news! If this is true we now may have enough advance warning of a huge solar flare on the magnitude of the September 1859 Carrington Event to save our electric power distribution grid from being totally destroyed by the massive surge of induced direct current that would result from such an event. I hope we do establish a solar flare disaster alert and mitigation procedure for such events.
Pamela Gray (08:39:57) :
Is anyone else thinking, “the next generation of military weaponry”? If this action results in an explosion that disrupts all kinds of things electronic, I can envision Lex Luther coming up with a new kind of plasma laser beam pointed at someone he doesn’t like, ready to blast a plasma/particle stream right up their hiney parts.
Boy, that does not sound pleasant. Fortunately, I think from my reading, that it is only on the sun that this happens. My hiney parts are thankful for this. 🙂
Interesting observation that TSI in the 750 to 900 range spiked in Nov. 2009, as did UAH temps. Similar spike is shown now, ( Jan.), with the current data through Jan, 16. I would paste the data but don’t know how. Obtained from lasp.colorado.edu
bob paglee (09:12:49) :
Does the continued twisting magnetic field of a wannabe solar flare eventually cause it to twist itself beyond its elastic limit, and so stretch itself into a suicidal finale?
That is basically what happens.
And if a big electric current is flowing along it when it snaps, what happens with the effect of that presumably stupendous di/dt?
The current is caused by the snapping, from the dB/dt.
Is there an incredible spark like a huge lightning discharge thousands of miles long? Does the enormous electromagnetic energy radiated from that spark cause our problems when it arrives on Earth? Just wondering….
The current energy goes into heating and kinetic energy of the plasma. There are radio bursts associated with this ‘spark’, but the energy involved is very small compared to the kinetic energy energy of the plasma, and THAT in turn is minuscule compared to the energy we get from the Sun.
G. Varros (02:13:57) wrote: “- one thing that is seen right after huge CMEs is a full bagel looking plasma. The weaker ones are the croissant looking ones. The bagel shaped ones are what seem to be described as a spheromak plasma. If there is enough energy, the open ends of the croissant could rejoin, which would allow the forming a toroidal current, which creates a poloidal field, yadda yadda, nice bagel shaped plasma.”
This describes a plasmoid, Plasma-Magnetic-Enity.
Plasmoids are known to take a “toroidal” shape.
From the Wikipedia entry for plasmoid:
“A plasmoid is a coherent structure of plasma and magnetic fields. Plasmoids have been proposed to explain natural phenomena such as ball lightning, magnetic bubbles in the magnetosphere, and objects in cometary tails, in the solar wind, in the solar atmosphere, and in the heliospheric current sheet. Plasmoids produced in the laboratory include Field-Reversed Configurations, Spheromaks, and the dense plasma focus.”
The word plasmoid was coined in 1956 by Winston H. Bostick (1916-1991) to mean a “plasma-magnetic entity”:
“The plasma is emitted not as an amorphous blob, but in the form of a torus. We shall take the liberty of calling this toroidal structure a plasmoid, a word which means plasma-magnetic entity. The word plasmoid will be employed as a generic term for all plasma-magnetic entities.”
Link for Wikipedia entry:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasmoid
“A plasmoid has an internal pressure stemming from both the gas pressure of the plasma and the magnetic pressure of the field. To maintain an approximately static plasmoid radius, this pressure must be balanced an external confining pressure. In a field-free vacuum, for example, a plasmoid will rapidly expand and dissipate.”
“Bostick went on to apply his theory of plasmoids to astrophysics phenomena.”
Plasmoids have been observed & measured in the Earth’s magnetotail.
So, it would seem that a CME on the high end of the power and intensity scale can form a “bagel” shape plasmoid.
Mr. Varros, thanks for the heads up, I appreciate that — also your discussion of “blue jets” in the high atmosphere was informative– plasmoids in the Earth’s atmosphere.
Who would of thunk it…
Pamela Gray (08:39:57) :
Is anyone else thinking, “the next generation of military weaponry”? If this action results in an explosion that disrupts all kinds of things electronic, I can envision Lex Luther coming up with a new kind of plasma laser beam pointed at someone he doesn’t like, ready to blast a plasma/particle stream right up their hiney parts.
Boy, that does not sound pleasant. Fortunately, I think from my reading, that it is only on the sun that this happens. My hiney parts are thankful for this. 🙂
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes, Pamela, I suspect such a weapon already exists but no nation wants to be the first to use it. However, I doubt that it is laser based — an EMP-emanating device is more likely, with lots of Ldi/dt.
Bob
http://lasp.colorado.edu/cgi-bin/ion-p?ION__E1=PLOT%3Aplot_timeseries_data.ion&ION__E2=PRINT%3Aprint_timeseries_data.ion&ION__E3=BOTH%3Aplot_and_print_timeseries_data.ion&MIN_WAVE=750&MAX_WAVE=900&INTEGRATE=%27INTEGRATE%27&START_DATE=2-nov-2009+00%3A00%3A00.00&STOP_DATE=1-dec-2009+08%3A49%3A14.00&IMODE=BEST&PLOT=Plot+Data
Jan.http://lasp.colorado.edu/cgi-bin/ion-p?ION__E1=PLOT%3Aplot_timeseries_data.ion&ION__E2=PRINT%3Aprint_timeseries_data.ion&ION__E3=BOTH%3Aplot_and_print_timeseries_data.ion&MIN_WAVE=750&MAX_WAVE=900&INTEGRATE=%27INTEGRATE%27&START_DATE=25-dec-2009+00%3A00%3A00.00&STOP_DATE=18-jan-2010+08%3A49%3A14.00&IMODE=BEST&PLOT=Plot+Data
http://lasp.colorado.edu/cgi-bin/ion-p?ION__E1=PLOT%3Aplot_timeseries_data.ion&ION__E2=PRINT%3Aprint_timeseries_data.ion&ION__E3=BOTH%3Aplot_and_print_timeseries_data.ion&MIN_WAVE=750&MAX_WAVE=900&INTEGRATE=%27INTEGRATE%27&START_DATE=25-dec-2009+00%3A00%3A00.00&STOP_DATE=18-jan-2010+08%3A49%3A14.00&IMODE=BEST&PLOT=Plot+Data
The radial magnetic fields generated by helical pairs of Birkeland currents are the “twisted magnetic fields”.
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/091124-st-solar-dynamics-observatory.html
Sounds like we’re getting past the mysterious “dynamo” and into the actual cause of the Sun’s magnetic field; electric currents.
solrey (10:45:50) :
Sounds like we’re getting past the mysterious “dynamo” and into the actual cause of the Sun’s magnetic field; electric currents.
You are misreading the SDO stuff. The flow of plasma across a weaker, existing magnetic field generates an electric current that amplifies the magnetic field. SDO is meant precisely to investigate those flows. The dynamo is alive and well.
The radial magnetic fields generated by helical pairs of Birkeland currents are the “twisted magnetic fields”.
Birkeland currents are field-aligned and would follow the helical [twisted] magnetic field. But there are no such currents at the CME or flare location during the build-up. When the flares goes off, the rapid changes of the magnetic field as it relaxes back to a smaller [or no] twist induces strong currents that are indeed Birkeland currents, just as in the Earth’s magnetosphere.
——
It seems that our usual suspects are beginning to come out of the woodwork.
Now there’s a research topic!
G. Varros (03:18:01) : being an amateur astronomer, I have noticed that over the past few years and especially this past entire year, that the number of clear sky nights has dropped off to nearly zero.
Carsten Arnholm, Norway (04:34:11) : my experience is very much the same here in Norway (at 60N).
cba (06:41:59) : Viewing in south texas has been hard too.
Astronomers look at the sky every night and probably make some sort of commentary on viewing conditions. What would an interpreted log of such, assessed over many years, involving observatories scattered around the world, tell us about cloud conditions world-wide over time?
Just musing.
NOAA is partially right. Deep-seated magnetic fields produce solar active regions, sunspots, solar flares, and solar eruptions.
However, the Standard Solar Model (SSM) explains none of these. NASA has steadfastly refused to consider observations that falsify the SSM.
E.g., the TRACE satellite recorded this movie of a flare and mass ejection from solar Active Region AR 9143 on 28 August 2000:
http://tinyurl.com/y9sobnu
The camera used 171 Å filters that were sensitive to emissions from iron ions, Fe (IX) and Fe (X).
We discussed the video recording of this solar flare [1,2], but so far as I know NASA and NOAA have not discussed the rigid, iron-rich structures captured in this video recording.
Oliver K. Manuel
1. “The Sun is a plasma diffuser that sorts atoms by mass”
http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0609509
2. “Isotopes tell origin and operation of the Sun”
http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0510001
solrey (10:45:50) :
Sounds like we’re getting past the mysterious “dynamo”
From: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/resources/newsroom/item/newsitem.php?i=6
‘Almost all solar activity from sunspots to solar flares is regulated by this inner dynamo. “Understanding how the dynamo works is a holy grail for stellar physics,” says Pesnell. “It is the key to forecasting solar activity and space weather.”‘
SDO’s purpose is to study the dynamo.
Patrick Davis (07:24:47) :
Predicting solar flares, I mean, as if!!!
It’s been done by NASA scientist Ching Cheh Hung with an ephemeris and a calculator. No need for Mission control type display arrays.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.121.9361&rep=rep1&type=pdf
(a) Large solar flares were forecasted to start between late June 3 and early June 5, 2007, when the
sunspot group 960 was rotated to overhead point of Mercury and Venus. They would also have been very
likely to start on June 7 or 8, 2007, when the sunspot group was rotated to the position overhead of Earth
and Jupiter.
As shown in table V, the largest solar flare (M8.9) for sunspot group 960 actually started at 5:06 a.m.
UT on June 4, within the first forecasted time period, but there was no large solar flare in the next
forecasted period (June 7 to 8). Instead, this second forecasted period was crowded with seven smaller
(C-class) flares. It appears that the decaying sunspot group could not produce a large solar flare but was
still strong enough to act with the tide to produce many smaller flares throughout this period.
(b) Based on the previous pattern, large solar flares would also have started when the sunspot group
was 28° to 32° from any of the four tide-producing planets. These happened from late on June 1 to early
on June 2, midday on June 5, midday and late on June 6, and midday on June 9.
Table V shows there were indeed solar flares in all of these time periods, when the sunspot group 960
was 28° to 32° from one or two of the four tide-producing planets. It is noted that the solar flare at
10:17 p.m. UT on June 1 happened as forecasted when the event position was 29° from Venus. However,
it was 25° from Mercury, not the forecasted 28° to 32° range. Separately, the M1.0 solar flare on June 9 is
most interesting because it happened at the time when the sunspot group had been significantly decayed
for 5 days since the last M flare, and a new M-class flare looked less and less likely. Yet it was correctly
forecasted based on the rules presented here when it started at 29° longitude from Jupiter at the start time
of the flare.
It seems that our usual suspects are beginning to come out of the woodwork.
It seems we need to go with the successful predictions and the principles they are based on. [The failed theories form the footnotes of history]
http://hmi.stanford.edu/Requirements/HMI_Objectives.html
First sentence:
There’s the dynamo, and fluid motions in plasma are an electric current, the source of the magnetic field.
Bill H (00:26:51) : “What is a budget?”
It’s the thing that gets busted when electricity rates “skyrocket.”
J.Hansford (01:16:48) : “I asked that because I have been reading this… http://www.electric-cosmos.org/sun.htm …. (It) won’t make me blind will it? ;-)”
No, but it will make hair grow on your palms.
LOL@DaveF & Pamela!
solrey (15:06:42) :
There’s the dynamo, and fluid motions in plasma are an electric current, the source of the magnetic field.
No, fluid motions in plasma are not electric currents. Ask for your school money back.
tallbloke (14:16:47) :
It seems we need to go with the successful predictions and the principles they are based on. [The failed theories form the footnotes of history]
Obviously NOAA does not believe that the planets do anything or are useful for prediction. And for good reason. I have never seen a forecast on the SWPC website based on this [have you?]. Lots of ‘hindcasts’, by the believers. You can almost always find something within ‘range’ afterwards.