WUWT first reported on this issue on 11/11/2009 and again on 12/22/2009,with
Pachauri claims Indian scientific position “arrogant”
The head of the IPCC Dr. Rajenda Pachauri had said: India was ‘arrogant’ to deny global warming link to melting glaciers.From the Guardian article:
Two years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN agency which evaluates the risk from global warming, warned the glaciers were receding faster than in any other part of the world and could “disappear altogether by 2035 if not sooner”.
Today Ramesh denied any such risk existed: “There is no conclusive scientific evidence to link global warming with what is happening in the Himalayan glaciers.” The minister added although some glaciers are receding they were doing so at a rate that was not “historically alarming”.
However, Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the IPCC, told the Guardian: “We have a very clear idea of what is happening. I don’t know why the minister is supporting this unsubstantiated research. It is an extremely arrogant statement.”
We also reported on the finding of Texas state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon
Texas State Climatologist: “IPCC AR4 was flat out wrong” – relied on flawed WWF report
Now who looks arrogant?
It’s now taken almost a month for the Times to catch up to this issue, and now it has made MSM news. Highlights in excerpts below are mine.
The Times, January 17, 2010
World misled over Himalayan glacier meltdown
Jonathan Leake and Chris Hastings
A WARNING that climate change will melt most of the Himalayan glaciers by 2035 is likely to be retracted after a series of scientific blunders by the United Nations body that issued it.
Two years ago the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a benchmark report that was claimed to incorporate the latest and most detailed research into the impact of global warming. A central claim was the world’s glaciers were melting so fast that those in the Himalayas could vanish by 2035.
In the past few days the scientists behind the warning have admitted that it was based on a news story in the New Scientist, a popular science journal, published eight years before the IPCC’s 2007 report.
It has also emerged that the New Scientist report was itself based on a short telephone interview with Syed Hasnain, a little-known Indian scientist then based at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi.
Hasnain has since admitted that the claim was “speculation” and was not supported by any formal research. If confirmed it would be one of the most serious failures yet seen in climate research. The IPCC was set up precisely to ensure that world leaders had the best possible scientific advice on climate change.
Professor Murari Lal, who oversaw the chapter on glaciers in the IPCC report, said he would recommend that the claim about glaciers be dropped: “If Hasnain says officially that he never asserted this, or that it is a wrong presumption, than I will recommend that the assertion about Himalayan glaciers be removed from future IPCC assessments.”
The IPCC’s reliance on Hasnain’s 1999 interview has been highlighted by Fred Pearce, the journalist who carried out the original interview for the New Scientist. Pearce said he rang Hasnain in India in 1999 after spotting his claims in an Indian magazine. Pearce said: “Hasnain told me then that he was bringing a report containing those numbers to Britain. The report had not been peer reviewed or formally published in a scientific journal and it had no formal status so I reported his work on that basis. Since then I have obtained a copy and it does not say what Hasnain said. In other words it does not mention 2035 as a date by which any Himalayan glaciers will melt. However, he did make clear that his comments related only to part of the Himalayan glaciers. not the whole massif.”
The New Scientist report was apparently forgotten until 2005 when WWF cited it in a report called An Overview of Glaciers, Glacier Retreat, and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal, India and China. The report credited Hasnain’s 1999 interview with the New Scientist. But it was a campaigning report rather than an academic paper so it was not subjected to any formal scientific review. Despite this it rapidly became a key source for the IPCC when Lal and his colleagues came to write the section on the Himalayas.
When finally published, the IPCC report did give its source as the WWF study but went further, suggesting the likelihood of the glaciers melting was “very high”. The IPCC defines this as having a probability of greater than 90%. The report read: “Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate.”
However, glaciologists find such figures inherently ludicrous, pointing out that most Himalayan glaciers are hundreds of feet thick and could not melt fast enough to vanish by 2035 unless there was a huge global temperature rise. The maximum rate of decline in thickness seen in glaciers at the moment is 2-3 feet a year and most are far lower.
…
Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC chairman, has previously dismissed criticism of the Himalayas claim as “voodoo science”. Last week the IPCC refused to comment so it has yet to explain how someone who admits to little expertise on glaciers was overseeing such a report. Perhaps its one consolation is that the blunder was spotted by climate scientists who quickly made it public.
…
Pearce said the IPCC’s reliance on the WWF was “immensely lazy” and the organisation need to explain itself or back up its prediction with another scientific source. Hasnain could not be reached for comment.
The revelation is the latest crack to appear in the scientific consensus over climate change. It follows the climate-gate scandal, where British scientists apparently tried to prevent other researchers from accessing key date. Last week another row broke out when the Met Office criticised suggestions that sea levels were likely to rise 1.9m by 2100, suggesting much lower increases were likely.
Read the full article here: World misled over Himalayan glacier meltdown
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The world’s foremost Climate Scientists are looking like flock en ducks. QUACK QUACK QUACK QUACK QUACK
The only way Al Gore could possibly redeem himself would be to go on SNL and do an Emily Litela-Never Mind skit. something along these lines.
http://www.hulu.com/watch/2364/saturday-night-live-weekend-update-emily-litella-on-violins-on-tv
It was 96 degrees F here in Brisbane today, but just down the road in the mountains it was zero in places. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/summer-snow-a-surprise-for-holidaymakers/story-e6frg6o6-1225820913288
The Times headline (finally) has a nice ring to it; i.e.:
”World misled over Himalayan glacier meltdown”
And it’s not just that the world was mislead:
It is the complete lack of what any reputable technical body would consider fundamental due diligence, in making sure they have a solid and well-documented factual basis before making a prediction like this in the first place.
Contemplate again this truly astounding snippet from thread start:
”. . . . Syed Hasnain, a little-known Indian scientist . . . . has since admitted that the claim was “speculation” and was not supported by any formal research.”
Not supported by **ANY** formal research ?!?!…
IOW. . .: What: He looked up at some local glaciers one day and decided it felt like they were melting ??..
UNBELIEVABLE !! . . . This is ”Keystone Cops” psuedo-science by the IPCC.
Methow Ken (21:41:29) : wrote
”. . . . Syed Hasnain, a little-known Indian scientist . . . . has since admitted that the claim was “speculation” and was not supported by any formal research.”
Not supported by **ANY** formal research ?!?!…
IOW. . .: What: He looked up at some local glaciers one day and decided it felt like they were melting ??..
UNBELIEVABLE !! . . . This is ”Keystone Cops” psuedo-science by the IPCC.”
He said one day, These glaciers will be gone in 35 years. The reporter said, I am going to quote you no that. And every one believes. They believed man can move mountains with words. NOT.
Nevermind.
Just another Emily Litella moment from the IPCC
Wondering Aloud (18:04:42) :
“If Hasnain says officially that he never asserted this, or that it is a wrong presumption, than I will recommend that the assertion about Himalayan glaciers be removed from future IPCC assessments.”
What if he doesn’t do this what if he says (as he did) that he did indeed say this? What in blazes does that have to do with it? Isn’t the qusestion “does proper research support the assertion? ” If not shouldn’t the statement and conclusions be retracted and have NOTHING to do with what he said. In fact shouldn’t a rediculous claim like this have been checked before it ever got into any report?
Well folks, keep your records in order and safe and your definitions clear. The spin and a**-covering has commenced on global proportions. This time the winners will be those who can keep the history intact, readily referenced and available. The losers can otherwise slink away to scam another day.
A number of scientists who backed the CO2 based AGW theory are now suffering from buyer’s remorse. According to atmospheric physicist James A. Peden, formerly of the Space Research and Coordination Center in Pittsburgh, “many [scientists] are now searching for a way to back out quietly, without having their professional careers ruined.”
What’s the sound of backing out quietly? ;->
Paul
I predict with a high degree of confidance that you will be able to ascertain the doppler effect.
I can hear that train acomin’
This latest stunt by Pachauri doesn’t even rise to the level of pseudo science. Wouldn’t it be nice if the RICO statutes could be applied against the IPCC?
Patrick Davis:
Apparently the AVO is no more, nobody makes the mechanical parts anymore.
The US version was probably the military TS-352.
Great mug shot of Pachauri, but what happened to his number?
“Lynne (20:37:06) :
The WWF have a lot to answer for. They have been active in this scheme all over the world. There needs to be an investigation and some light shone on their activities.”
I agree Lynne – I spent some time recently checking them out – for example they mention that Australia has lost more wildlife than any other country yet when you check it out we haven’t lost any mammals since 1950! we haven’t lost a bird on the mainland since 1926, the birds we have lost have been on Lord Howe Island and Kangaroo Island – we may have lost a couple of frogs but they may turn up somewhere as there’s not a lot of people out looking for them.
When you check out the Board and the Governors it’s a who’s who of greenie environmentalists. yet they are always putting out AGW support papers.
Fasool Rasmin (21:37:39) :
Something similar happened in the 1880’s or 1890’s in the US, where widespread heat wave of 100-110 F gave way in one week to widespread frosts. I should try to find it. I believe it was in an AMS Journal.
“Parts of northern China are seeing their harshest winter in decades, with Beijing this month receiving its heaviest one-day snowfall in 59 years. Temperatures in the capital were due to rise above freezing this week.
Herders moved thousands of others to safer pastures at lower altitudes ahead of the latest storm front, which is expected to last through Wednesday.
Temperatures in parts of Xinjiang are set to plunge to minus 45 degrees (minus 43 Celsius) by midweek, according to Xinjiang Meteorological Station forecaster Wei Rongqing.
Wei said snow was falling in the region’s Altay district, where accumulations had already risen to 3 feet (94 centimeters). Altay lies in China’s extreme northwestern corner, 1,600 miles (2,600 kilometers) northwest of Beijing, the capital.
“Livestock raising has been hit hard. Both wild animals and livestock haven’t been able to find food, but now forage has been allocated by the central government,” Wei said. Some 500,000 people in total were affected by the harsh weather, he said. The figure includes those who suffered property damage and supply shortages or were isolated by snow drifts and icy roads.
Direct economic losses were being estimated at 300 million yuan ($44 million) as of Thursday and were expected to continue rising, Wei said.
“We’re taking emergency measures, including evacuating remote areas,” Wei said. Calls to Xinjiang government spokesmen rang unanswered.
Parts of northern China are seeing their harshest winter in decades, with Beijing this month receiving its heaviest one-day snowfall in 59 years. Temperatures in the capital were due to rise above freezing this week.”
Extreme Cold, Snow Kills 4 In Northwest China
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/18/extreme-cold-snow-kills-4_n_426698.html
Did New Scientist print something as fact that was not true? I’m shocked, shocked.
If they are like some of the other Elsevier publications perhaps they at least go paid to print non-science as science.
http://www.lifescientist.com.au/article/302514/elsevier_published_fake_medical_journals
crosspatch (20:22:41) :
Anthony, I believe this might be the root of the problem.
We have people in universities studying in science fields who do not have a grasp of 7th grade maths.
We have people designing math curricula who self admittedly never were much good with numbers. Thus nowadays the primary focus is to ensure that none of the little mouthbreathers ever has to suffer the indignity of being told their answer to a homework problem is wrong, lest their self esteem be mortally damaged. Then, of course, we have to cut back the class time devoted to irrelevant and archaic concepts like the 3Rs to make time for numerous showings of AIT,sensitivity and diversity seminars, and learning hymns of praise to Obama. If one was inclined to a conspiratorial mindset, one might look at the way that leftist dominated academia has systematically dumbed down American public education and be moved to suspect that students continually declining achievement was actually the goal they were aiming for, so that they would be more susceptible to their ongoing propaganda efforts. But certainly no one could be that callous and cynical, could they? But It is interesting to note that one of the leading lights of modern education policy in the US is a certain Mr. Ayers, who after a successful career blowing up people and things, has moved on to doing his best to ensure that the primary goal of the schools should be to instill the proper revolutionary mindset in it’s charges, He’s been so successful in his efforts that a fair number of schools of education have, in the last few years, attempted to include, as a requirement for admission to their programs, embrace of the proper attitudes regarding racial and social justice, the evils of Western Civilization in general and capitalism in particular, and most particularly as practiced by Old White Guys.
One would think that such success must be the product of complete singleminded dedication to a single purpose, but Mr. Ayers has a well rounded life in which he is able to make time in his busy schedule to host coffee klatches to boost the careers of up and coming political candidates who just happen to live in his neighborhood.
Hi Anthony
Just to advise that the msm’s only national paper in Australia (and the most balanced of the msm) “The Australian” has today, 18 January 2010, devoted three full page broadsheet columns to “Melting claim based on speculation – UN’s BLUNDER ON GLACIERS EXPOSED”.
The Australian also published Viscount Monckton’s open letter “Mr Rudd your misguided warming policies are killing millions” on 6 Jan 2010. He and Prof Ian Plimer are shortly to begin a capital city speaking tour, which will be very well attended.
Cheers, Ian
Patrick Davis (21:07:05) :
Every summer we’d have Univercity level electronics students pass through on summer work experience.
Don’t you hate it when they make up funny names for training programs? What’s next, CollegeCollage?
I recall one guy who didn’t know what an AVO was nor knew how to use a multimeter.
That’s okay, I didn’t know what an AVO was either, just found it on Wikipedia. VOM’s, multimeters that did amperage, sure, knew those. But an AVO? New name for me.
Incredibly, the usual nut blogs are still claiming the Himalaya glaciers will be gone in 20 years. …Or something like that. Maybe after a rest…. Or something like that too!……It never ends.
Even when it is gone.
BTW, regarding Mr. Pachauri’s picture, whenever I see it one question always pops into my head. If Tommy Chong had a Dorian Gray like portrait of himself hanging in the closet, is this what it would look like?
1. Al Gore/IPCC/BBC troika: WOOOOLF!!
mob: Ohhhhh.
2. troika: WOOOOOOLF!!
mob: Ohh?
3.
Astronomer: asteroid going to hit Earth in 12 years, got to do something about it
mob: nah, too expensive.
Sorry about this little play, but we all know this story.
Here is the report IPCC should have used;
http://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdf
But I guess it was i bit too scientific for them.
At least the Telegraph story reveals a little of the sham that is Pachauri’s TERI. Its UK charity front is reported as having to re-work its accounts. Here’s hoping the MSM now continue digging and the effrontery is exposed for what it is.
I would encourage you all to contact CNN and inform them they need to post a retraction of their Oct. 5th, 2009 story where they repeat the IPCC Himalayan-2035 claim, and iterate (rather scarily) on hypothetical repercussions:
http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/10/05/himalayas.glacier.conflict/index.html
The article even concludes with this statement:
“Even though some authorities in India do not consider the phenomenon to be particularly alarming, there is an increased understanding that the melting of Himalayan snows is real and needs to be taken seriously.”
Apparently, a convoluted game of “telephone” from Syed Hasnain to The New Scientist to WWF to IPCC is an “increased understanding.”
Perhaps OT but this is quite an interesting article . . .
http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/climategate_the_truth_hurts_wh.html