From NASA News. New measurements from a NASA satellite show a dramatic cooling in the upper atmosphere that correlates with the declining phase of the current solar cycle. For the first time, researchers can show a timely link between the Sun and the climate of Earth’s thermosphere, the region above 100 km, an essential step in making accurate predictions of climate change in the high atmosphere.
Scientists from NASA’s Langley Research Center and Hampton University in Hampton, Va., and the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., presented these results at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco from Dec. 14 to 18.
Earth’s thermosphere and mesosphere have been the least explored regions of the atmosphere. The NASA Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) mission was developed to explore the Earth’s atmosphere above 60 km altitude and was launched in December 2001. One of four instruments on the TIMED mission, the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, was specifically designed to measure the energy budget of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The SABER dataset now covers eight years of data and has already provided some basic insight into the heat budget of the thermosphere on a variety of timescales.
The extent of current solar minimum conditions has created a unique situation for recent SABER datasets, explains Stan Solomon, acting director of the High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. The end of solar cycle 23 has offered an opportunity to study the radiative cooling in the thermosphere under exceptionally quiescent conditions.
“The Sun is in a very unusual period,” said Marty Mlynczak, SABER associate principal investigator and senior research scientist at NASA Langley. “The Earth’s thermosphere is responding remarkably — up to an order of magnitude decrease in infrared emission/radiative cooling by some molecules.”
The TIMED measurements show a decrease in the amount of ultraviolet radiation emitted by the Sun. In addition, the amount of infrared radiation emitted from the upper atmosphere by nitric oxide molecules has decreased by nearly a factor of 10 since early 2002. These observations imply that the upper atmosphere has cooled substantially since then. The research team expects the atmosphere to heat up again as solar activity starts to pick up in the next year.
While this warming has no implications for climate change in the troposphere, a fundamental prediction of climate change theory is that the upper atmosphere will cool in response to increasing carbon dioxide. As the atmosphere cools the density will decrease, which ultimately may impact satellite operations through decreased drag over time.
The SABER dataset is the first global, long-term, and continuous record of the
Nitric oxide (NO) and Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the thermosphere.
“We suggest that the dataset of radiative cooling of the thermosphere by NO and CO2 constitutes a first climate data record for the thermosphere,” says Mlynczak.
The TIMED data provide a climate record for validation of upper atmosphere climate models, which is an essential step in making accurate predictions of climate change in the high atmosphere. SABER provides the first long-term measurements of natural variability in key terms of the upper atmosphere climate.
“A fundamental prediction of climate change theory is that upper atmosphere will cool in response to greenhouse gases in the troposphere,” says Mlynczak. “Scientists need to validate that theory. This climate record of the upper atmosphere is our first chance to have the other side of the equation.”
James Russell III, SABER principal investigator and co-director of the Center for Atmospheric Sciences at Hampton University in Hampton, Va., agrees adding, “The atmosphere is a coupled system. If you pick up one end of the stick, you automatically pick up the other – they’re intrinsically linked. To be as accurate as possible, scientists have to understand global change throughout the atmosphere.”
As the TIMED mission continues, these data derived from SABER will become important in assessing long term atmospheric changes due to the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
TIMED is the first mission in the Solar Terrestrial Probes Program within the Heliophysics Division in NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington.
TIMED is the terrestrial anchor of the Heliophysics Great Observatory. Learn more of TIMED’s Heliophysics contributions and its role as a bridge to Earth science missions. Link to lessons learned in terrestrial aeronomy.
“As the atmosphere cools the density will decrease, which ultimately may impact satellite operations through decreased drag over time.”
So, this implies that the satellite orbit parameters were planned based on a certain “drag”. Less drag means some adjustments needed for the satellite data? Heads up on data changes.
John
nofate (08:01:16) :
So my question is, why is it that the “upper atmosphere will cool in response to greenhouse gases in the troposphere”?
Since no-one else has responded, I’ll have a stab. The key to it, I believe, is the temperature profile throughout the various layers of the atmosphere. In the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) we are familiar with the temperature lapse rate, i.e. higher means colder. It is this fact that underpins AGW theory.
In the drier, colder regions of the troposphere IR emission to space is dominated by CO2. With constant CO2 concentrations the average altitude at which emission takes place will remain broadly the same which means it will take place at a similar temperature (since temp is governed by altitude).
Now then, if we add more CO2 to the troposphere, the average height at which IR is emitted will increase. This means it will be emitted from a colder region which means that, according to the Stefan-Boltzmann law (Energy emitted is proportional to T^4), the amount of energy emitted will be reduced. So we now have an energy imbalance, i.e. we have more incoming than outgoing, so the atmosphere will heat up until balance is restored.
This is why the troposphere is expected to warm despite a relatively small increase in absorption near the surface.
The stratosphere, on the other hand, has an ‘inverse lapse rate’, i.e. the higher the warmer. More CO2 in the stratosphere will raise the average emission height to a warmer region which, in this case, means that the amount of energy emitted will increase. This will give us an energy imbalance where we have more outgoing than incoming (i.e. the opposite to that of the troposphere) and so the stratosphere will cool down in order to restore equilibrium.
Hence, if additional ghgs are responsible for global warming, the troposphere should warm while the stratosphere cools. AGWers point out that that if the Sun were responsible for recent tropospheric warming then the stratosphere should have warmed also. They probably have a point.
I think this more or less provides a simple summary of the theory. I hope it makes sense.
They probably had to mention that CO2 dribble just to get the paper through the peer review process.
hehe
Otherwise its nice to see that NASA is putting instruments into space now to really measure whats going on.
Thats whats NASA needs to work with forwards.
I just saw this Svensmark youtube series again. So refreshing to see him talk about his theories.
He also mentions how difficult it was to get his papers into the journals. Now we all know why.
6 episodes of pure joy;
Oh, and note the sour face of Bert Bolin…..
Leif Svalgaard (08:51:34) :
It would have been more clear had they said “As the atmosphere cools and contracts the density will decrease at the satellite, which ultimately
maywill impact satellite operations through decreased drag over time.”I’d quibble with the word “impact” too as few satellite operations are improved by atmoshperic drag. The major exception is using it to save fuel to get planetary probes into circular orbits from high-kinetic energy, highly eccentric orbits. A few satellites may use drag for attitude control, though usually drag messes that up more than it helps. “Affect” is milder and more accurate, “improve” is almost always the case for satellites that aren’t studying the the high atmosphere.
The dramatic upper atmospheric cooling is due to the Sun’s lesser activity, but rising CO2 concentration is thereby proven to explain the upper atmospheric cooling.
With thinking like that, it’s no wonder that hardly any “Climate Scientists” have spoken out against what the leaked emails show: Everything that happens forever, is “consistent with” AGW, and therefore proves it.
Per Strandberg (09:37:29) :
Is there enough energy in the solar wind so that this can cause the observed variation in temperature of the upper atmosphere?
Has anyone made calculation on this?
Yes there is, but take note that UPPER means from 100 km on up, where the atmosphere is so thin [millions to billions times thinner than at the surface] that the actual amount of heat is minute, and it has no significant impact on the troposphere where we live.
richb313 (05:18:19) :
Is this sentence correct?
“As the atmosphere cools the density will decrease, which ultimately may impact satellite operations through decreased drag over time.”
Shouldn’t the density increase and as a result the drag increase?
Thanks
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I believe that they are referring to the fact that as the atmosphere cools and contracts the density decreases AT THE ALTITUDE OF SATELLITES or at its outer “edge”. You are correct that it increases the density of the lower atmosphere, but that increase has to come from somewhere, which in this case is the upper atmosphere.
Martin G. Mlynczak was co-author of Ferenc M. Miskolczi’s 2004 article, here:
http://met.hu/idojaras/IDOJARAS_vol108_No4_01.pdf
Miskolczi’s latest work (2007) is here:
http://met.hu/idojaras/IDOJARAS_vol111_No1_01.pdf
I don’t think (as somebody earlier suspected ) that he can be described as “brainwashed”, because above works are the best physical treatment of the greenhouse effect I have ever seen.
Oops!
Scrolling up, I see others have already addressed richb’s question.
“Nevermind”
/Emily Littella
(quote) James Russell III, SABER principal investigator and co-director of the Center for Atmospheric Sciences at Hampton University in Hampton, Va., agrees adding, “The atmosphere is a coupled system. If you pick up one end of the stick, you automatically pick up the other – they’re intrinsically linked. To be as accurate as possible, scientists have to understand global change throughout the atmosphere.” (end quote)
If the atmosphere is a coupled system, using a basic thermodynamic law of heat goes to cold, regardless of direction, then how is it possible that a “order of 10” cooling at the top of the atmosphere has no effect on the lower part of the atmosphere?
It may not have a radiant effect, but surely there has to be a convective effect does there not? If climate is based on 30 year intervals, then we may see the effect of this new finding in the next 10-20 years in a cooling earth?
Ah well, back to making my turkey soup! (now that reaction I DO understand! LOL!)
livescience.com had this interesting point in their story on this …
http://www.livescience.com/space/091217-agu-earth-atmosphere-cooling.html
The article started out by stating the Sun’s activity was affecting the upper atmosphere and ended with statements how CO2 and GHGs were creating a cooler upper atmosphere.
Czar Chu will be pleassed that yet another NASA study confirms his views
kwik:
“Otherwise its nice to see that NASA is putting instruments into space now to really measure whats going on. ”
In case anyone is intereseted, here are a couple other good recent NASA satellite missions:
CALIPSO (http://spie.org/x8700.xml?highlight=x2420&ArticleID=x8700)
CLARREO (http://nasascience.nasa.gov/missions/clarreo)
A careful reading of the release summarizing the TIMED/SABRE report as it was presented at the AGU meeting in ‘Frisco shows it to be a compact, coherent and comprehensive news report.
The confusion comes from the single paragraph not in keeping with a report on findings from the mission related scientific instruments.
:This paragraph appears to have been inserted into the main TIMED/SABRE release by some NASA public relations hack:
“While this warming has no implications for climate change in the troposphere, a fundamental prediction of climate change theory is that the upper atmosphere will cool in response to increasing carbon dioxide. As the atmosphere cools the density will decrease, which ultimately may impact satellite operations through decreased drag over time.”
I seem to recall this caveat (slightly reworded) coming from a totally different report a year or two ago
As some commenters have noted above, there appears to be a rift in NASA between the believers and the folks who still know how to read instruments and thermometers.
As some commenters have noted above, there appears to be a rift in NASA between the believers and the folks who still know how to read instruments and thermometers
“kwik (09:44:33) :
[…]
I just saw this Svensmark youtube series again. So refreshing to see him talk about his theories
”
Didn’t see this before. What makes me grin is he says “In Science you don’t only have to have a theory, you also have to have an experiment to support the idea.”
(part 3 at 05:50)
Look clima scientists, maybe you can still learn a thing from a physicist. 🙂
Now then you lot look up and listen, this is NASA talking.
We have told you before, the increase in CO² at the surface caused by all you SUV drivers traps the heat that all you SUV drivers emit from your engines. Right, got it. Good. Now, the heat cannot get out of the atmosphere because the CO² at the surface keeps it in and so cannot reach space. Right? So the top of the atmosphere cools, see? CO² Global warming. oh sorry, cooling, no warming. Ah Thats it. Now the sun is less active now than for a few years, but it’s perfectly normal, nothing unusual. So, although the sun may be not be heating the top of atm., the CO² is definately cooling it. Got it you lot?
There you are simples, send me my new funding please.
Merry christmas and a happy new year Anthony and all his little elfs, and thank you for you work this last year.
John Finn:
”… if additional ghgs are responsible for global warming, the troposphere should warm while the stratosphere cools. AGWers point out that that if the Sun were responsible for recent tropospheric warming then the stratosphere should have warmed also. They probably have a point. ”
The primary determiner of temperature in the stratosphere is ozone and oxygen absorption of solar UV so the observed stratosphere cooling is believed due to a combination of the decrease in solar UV flux in recent years (the UV decreases more than the overall TSI during solar min) and ozone depletion. The lower stratosphere is also influenced by volcanic emissions which might increase any moment now
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26528145-954,00.html
OK, saw Lief’s comment about the upper atmosphere being basicaly vacant of molecules. Understood.
Also, John Finn, thanx for your explanation, filled in a few holes in my knowledge about re-radiation theories. Now if we could only tap into that excess “heat” up above us, me thinks that that would be a good solution 🙂
JB (04:23:41) :
Quite how anybody can deny the Sun’s substantial effect on the Earth’s climate is beyond me. More studies like this, based on sound science, are needed to demolish the ridiculous and over-hyped CO2 link to climactic variations.
I agree.
And it’s not just co2 climate change believers who think the sun doesn’t have this kind of effect on earth. You’d be surprised….
CO2 is supposed to be holding heat in the earth. Manmade co2 levels continue to rise but the earth is cooling. So can we finally file the co2 hypothesis away?
dave (05:55:53) :
“A fundamental prediction of climate change theory is that upper atmosphere will cool in response to greenhouse gases in the troposphere,”
So the cooling is proof of AGW?
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Ya, sheesh, everything is proof of global warming.
[REPLY – I feel your pain. But, to be fair, lower stratosphere cooling is part of AGW theory. If Lindzen’s observations turn out to be correct, however, that would not appear to be demonstrably linked with AGW. What confuses me is that a.) they are not talking about the stratosphere, and b.) they link the cooling to solar flux — so what’s with the AGW routine? ~ Evan]
Joel (06:47:12) :
Doesn’t it appear that this news release contains a non sequitur in its description of the study results? The first few paragraphs discuss the lower radiative balance due to changes in solar radiation, then the next few paragraphs talk about how climate models predict the same changes due to increases in CO2 predicted in climate models.
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We have ClimateGate now we need NASAGate.
Allan Kiik (10:21:01) :
Ferenc M. Miskolczi’s…
I still haven’t heard anyone disprove his math. The challenge is still out there for any takers.
stephen richards (11:24:20) :
Now, the heat cannot get out of the atmosphere because the CO²
I know, it’s getting soo hot!