While England basks in a winter wonderland, with more on the way, and bookmakers are now slashing odds on a white Christmas (The Times reports “The odds on a White Christmas fell to match the lowest price ever offered at 6/4 today”.), it seems like a good time to review the Met Office forecast for the coming year.
The Met Office is forecasting 2010 to be the warmest year ever, due to El Nino. The moderate El Nino we have now appears to be weakening, with additional weakening in the next few months.
The Met Office did the same kind of forecast in 2007, right before the temperature dropped more than 1C. The UAH (Channel5 LT) temperature has dropped this past week and is the closest to the 20 year average it has been in six months. With these factors in play, has the Met Office has made a serious blunder with their current high visibility forecast? Is it a repeat of the now famously wrong Met Office BBQ summer forecast?
See the 2007 Met Office forecast here:
4 January 2007
2007 – forecast to be the warmest year yet
2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office.
Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as solar effects, El Niño, greenhouse gases concentrations and other multi-decadal influences. Over the previous seven years, the Met Office forecast of annual global temperature has proved remarkably accurate, with a mean forecast error size of just 0.06 °C.
See the 2009 (for 2010) forecast here:
Climate could warm to record levels in 2010
10 December 2009
A combination of man-made global warming and a moderate warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as El Niño, means it is very likely that 2010 will be a warmer year globally than 2009.
Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the fifth-warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850.
The latest forecast from our climate scientists, shows the global temperature is forecast to be almost 0.6 °C above the 1961–90 long-term average. This means that it is more likely than not that 2010 will be the warmest year in the instrumental record, beating the previous record year which was 1998.
Here are some video’s from England that give some idea of the snowstorm:
LOL. I think the Met Office should lay low for awhile 🙂
It’s just the old adage: Keep predicting the same thing over and over again, eventually you’ll predict it right.
Andy Y (09:46:54) :
“It’s just the old adage: Keep predicting the same thing over and over again, eventually you’ll predict it right.”
– Yup. If you don’t go (more) insane first.
Pure propagandists im afraid. They need to be disinfected.
Right, and I’ll bet their “climate scientists” think there is no ice on the Arctic Ocean! Sorry “climate scientists” – it is still cold up there and the ice is still forming. They haven’t a clue as to what is going on – why don’t they just shut up.
BTW – what ever happened to the Catlin Arctic Survey?
To: Met Office employees
Subject: Employment Status
To save yourselves embarrassment when talking about your work, it is suggested that you merely offer a vague mention of working for the government. Let your listener draw his/her own conclusions. If done properly you can create the impression of working at a well thought of government agency, say MI5, or Scotland Yard. (It is, after all, detective work in which Met is engaged – trying to find the warming that we know is happening. We just haven’t found it yet.)
we have a water butt for rain water, it was so cold it froze it solid.. this is gallons of the stuff. and it was in a wind free area.. it is very cold.. i havent felt it this cold for many years, i have lived in teh same place for 35 years,
One quick OT question, how much land would be able to be cultivated if the temp goes up (thinks of the russian permafrost areas)
If they were smart they would just pay Piers Corbyn for a forecast and then just change a few percentages here and there and release it as their own. That way they would be able to get in the ballpark.
I wonder about the correlation of “snow days per year by county” versus the actual thermometer readings sometimes. Obviously there’s a strong precipitation factor – but at least the difference between “snow” and “rain” is a transition that doesn’t need a properly sited, maintained, observed, and reported Stevenson Screen arrangement to discern a threshold temperature.
If one is in the forecasting business, be it weather or economics or anything else, it is always better to forecast disaster. This is because if the disaster doesn’t happen you can claim relief that we “dodged a bullet” but if the disaster comes, then you are correct. “Dodging a bullet” is less of a career ending move than missing a “disaster”.
If you are an economist, always forecast at the low end. If things improve, you can claim pleasant surprise, times are good, and your employer can afford to keep you on. If things get worse, your employer must let people go and you were the one who “correctly” forecast that things would get worse so you are kept on.
Same with weather. Always forecast for the worst. The forecaster who calls for partly cloudy the day before a blizzard is going to be remembered longer than the one who forecast the potential for a blizzard that never materialized because a cold front fell apart.
And in the midlands of the uk despite bonechilling cold we only had the briefest of snowstorms. Ten minutes and a cm(half inch) of snow settling! I feel cheated! Give me my share of snow. Fortunately the snow gods are making an offering of significant snow on Tuesday.
As far as the met office goes I’m often too damn annoyed at them to even check what they are predicting with their so called super computers.
Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year.
ah…now I understand. There’s a typo. It should have said:
“2007 is likely to be the warmest arbitrary adjustments for any year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office.
oops. didn’t get the “” in there somewhere.
Piers Corbyn must be jumping of delight!
The screw is turning around!
Isn’t just as likely that a warming world would produce more snow and ice, up until some higher temperature was reached? Why do the Warmists focus on the low confidence output of their models – eventually inducing hysteria without results is going to create some significant negative public feedback.
!! SUNDAY FOXNEWS SPECIAL !!
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,580564,00.html
Who was it who said “Never make predictions. Especially about the future” ?
-2 here in Malvern, no snow yet ;(
3-4 weeks ago I scoffed at a Piers Corbyn’s prediction that it would snow in Copenhagen during the climate summit. He was right.
Next time I’ll be more careful!
The UK met office Hadley centre/UEA CRU are major contributors to the fabricated temperature series used by the IPCC, they also provide the UK regime with most of its evidence around which it creates multiple economic and enviromental policies.
It doesnt take too much imagination to believe that this is a very convenient way for a bent regime pushing through massive unpopular policies by covering those policies in lies and deceit.
Who pays the met office Hadley centre UEA CRU? well its the regime of course and seeing how the regime has placed stooges in all those bodies the its not a stretch to suggest that the those paying the piper get to call the tune.
The met office has gone from a scientific institution to a propaganda mouthpiece and policy advocate within a decade, their predictions are based around their beloved computer models which have been stuffed with rigged data so any forecast they make is trash which is why the met office is so wrong so often.
The UK political regime pay for lies and lies is what they get, the regime demands that temperatures increase and so temperatures increase even when they dont, last year will be warm and next year warmer still BUT only in their models and minds, there is a divergence between actual reality and the met office made up reality. In the real world its getting colder in the bought and paid for fantasy reality the climate does whatever the computer says it will.
The corruption of the UK climate science/ weather forecasting community is complete, they lie and cheat as easily as any Warsaw pact news agency because they have powerful political friends.
The USA circumstance is a little different for now because its a hell of a lot harder to buy a far bigger community of scientists and organisations, but I would caution any reader to treat any information on climate/weather coming from the UK as lies and made up trash.
John F. Hultquist (09:55:08)
“BTW – what ever happened to the Catlin Arctic Survey?”
Their busy getting their brass balls reattached!
Its funny. I was just watching the BBC1 6pm news and at the end of the report on the blizzards in the UK, they suddenly totted out with a line about it being so rare not much point investing in snow ploughs, gritters etc.. It was like they were saying, we’ll all be burning to death soon so dont take much notice of the snow; this is probably the last of it you’ll see in your lifetime.
BBC, they just cant stop spinning the agw crap.
Hadley is conferring with the local Druids. They appear to have reached a definitive agreement. Given that the winter solstice is only a couple of days away and Barrie Harrop is in Copenhagen, they figure that the only chance to make their forecasts come to pass is to follow the ancient tradition of burning a criminal alive in a wicker basket on the solstice. Given his proximity Mr. Harrop has been put forward as a candidate for the honor given his great grasp of AGW and hot emissions of postings in the WSJ.
It is rather easy to discover what is going on at the UK Met Office. Their advertising on the right side of the “weather” pages reads as follows:
“INVENT”
“Showcasing our latest ideas”
Not too difficult to work out what those latest ideas are….. their latest weather inventions, perhaps?
What amazing audio…
Brits and technology!
Foul-mouthed bloke probably had a few too many lagers.