WUWT Commenter “Boy on a Bike” was inspired by Willis article on Darwin (See: The Smoking Gun At Darwin Zero) to have a look at stations in his part of the world, he didn’t have to look far. He’s found what we’ve been saying for years on WUWT. Just have a look in our Weather Stations Category. One notable example, Lampasas, TX
He writes:
UPDATE: The writer has misidentified the lighthouse shown in the photos below. it is actually Cape Leeuwin Lighthouse, not Cape Naturaliste. Not being familiar with Australian lighthouses, I did not catch this right away. But I have verified that it is Cape Leeuwin in Google Earth. The siting issue of the weather station at Cape Leeuwin remains a concern. I’ll add the temperature record at Cape Leeuwin as soon as I can locate it. UPDATE: Graphs have been posted in comments – Anthony
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Australian weather records – how much can we trust them?
After reading a few articles on weather stations in the
US and
Australia over the last year or so, I decided to do a random check on one station in WA [Western Australia] to see what the records looked like.
I chose Cape Naturaliste, as I have visited it several times, and the lighthouse has been there for around a century. I guessed that the weather station would be at the lighthouse – and I was right.
One glance at the annual mean maximum temp from around 1900 to today would convince most people that we are all about to fry. However, I decided to have a look for photos of the site to check out the location of the weather station.
The weather station is located between the two buildings on the far right – and it is about a foot from an asphalt road. Note that the asphalt is a dark black colour – the colour of fresh tar.
Here’s a side on view.
If memory serves me correctly, when I visited this place back in the 1980s, this was a gravel road – not tarmac.
If the weather station has not been relocated since 1901, what impact would moving from a gravel road to tarmac have on temperature readings? Undoubtedly, it would skew them upwards. The key question is when the tarmac was laid – or relaid – and what impact this has had on the temperature record.
Like this:
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..that is not Cape Naturaliste Lighthouse…
It’s incredible. I have no words.
AGW is dead, dead, dead.
Science. Doncha love it? Once question to the group. The “white paint” on the thermometer structures likely reflect most of the light in the visible spectrum, since I see them as white. BuT… wouldn’t a perfectly reflective and emissive surface be preferred. A coating that reflects all light including infrared? Watt is the absorption spectrum of the paint on the boxes. Watt is the emmissivity? …just to pile on.
Warming Establishment Crumbles: More than 140 scientists challenge UN’s climate claims in open letter
http://www.copenhagenclimatechallenge.org/
GP (09:50:44) :
Are you sure were are looking at the correct photos here?
From the linked page’s links I would say these photos are of Cape Leeuwin rather than Cape Naturaliste.
I could be wrong of course ….
GP is right. These are photos of Cape Leeuwin.
[snip – no valid email address given – policy violation]
Anthony writes:
“Undoubtedly, it would skew them upwards.”
Is there no doubt about that? It’s an honest question. I assume the argument is that it can’t skew the downwards, so there will be a skew upwards, however it may be to small to matter?
Which brings me to my next question: Can’t this type of effect be easily measured in a controlled study? Sure, it wouldn’t be something done in an afternoon, but surely by empirical testing, some function of distance and surface area, etc, could be made, no?
Hmmm … near antenna (appears to be a horizontal quad) is lashed-up to a pipe sticking out of the ground using rope …
Far antenna support by an X-frame on placed on the ground.
Appears to be a ‘field day’ setup (this may all be redundant info).
.
.
For the station in Windsor Ontario, the last 11 years is all adjusted data but no unadjusted. Weird.
Those picture are from the Cape Leeuwin lighthouse, not the Cape Naturaliste lighthouse. Both are in the Leeuwin Naturaliste National Park, but are some distance from each other.
Is there a separate weather station for each lighthouse, did the naming convention change over time, is the record a local average, does the site reference (lat/long) match the photos, etc. Every station needs these questions answered by local examination.
What was the “fireball” incident all about? Ball Lightning
My question about all this is: do we have any examples of temperature graph where all the data is known, shows warming, and does not have any illogical corrections? I’m somewhat of a skeptic on AGW, so I enjoy seeing this nice work about the cases where there are artificial correctionsof various sorts. It seems a very reasonable request to the warming crowd to show us some “good” (i.e., verifiable) examples of their temperature assertions. If every rock turned up has a snake under it, at some point our skepticism approches certitude. Do we know of any such “good” cases?
Cape Leeuwin has a considerable adjustment downward for the period 1895-1916 artificially (?) amplifying the warming trend. No noticeable adjustments downwards to nullify the effect of a relatively recent asphalt road.
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climgraph.aspx?pltparms=GHCNT100XJanDecI188020080900111AR50194601000x
I’m new to this. Would someone please check my thinking? First, you have a temperature signal with errors. Second, you use this erroneous data in a nonlinear dynamic system to predict future events. But wouldn’t the derivatives in such a math model serve to MAGNIFY the error even more?!
Call me old fashioned but.. I work in telecoms & when digital cameras became cheap, I got a box full and tasked our installation engineers to take before and after pictures. Handy for QA, familiarisation and occasional remote hands stuff.
Is it too much to expect that the agencies responsible for these stations might do similar, or ask site operators to send them pics? Even better, get out of the office and inspect them themselves.
If a structure were built to block the sun, that would bias readings lower. The black road surface will store heat during the day and release it at night usually raising the low temp for the day.
It is not easy. It depends in large part on the amount of sunlight hitting the road surface and the blackness of the surface. Its pretty hard to get a numerical average for leaves and dirt on the road, precipitation, degree of cloud cover at that point, and the effects of parked and moving vehicles.
Moreover, an induced error of sat 2F or 3F is mostly going to be unnoticeable for use by locals on a daily basis. Forex would you do anything differently if told the temp was 76F versus 74F?
“”” crosspatch (09:29:45) :
Well, there is an obvious step up in the data in the mid-1990s.
John Hooper (09:32:26) :
What’s the point of the the Stevenson screen if not to counteract that? “””
Well I don’t see any obvious step up in the mid-1990s. I do see a short period when the data appears to drop down, and then “steps up” to about where it seemed to be heading anyway.
I’ve never seen a real Stevenson Screen; but I presume that it has inside it a thermometer which is essentially immersed in the air inside the owl box, and attempts to measure the temperature of that air; or at least that part of the air that is in contact with the thermometer.
When you read a thermometer (assuming it is accurately calibrated) the only thing you can be sure of is the temperature of the thermometer; which is what it is recording. If your intent is to determine the temperature of something else, other than the thermometer, well then you have a problem; and that is the big question in temperature measurments. Just what temperature is the sensor responding to, other than its own.
But I’ll assume that a lot of smart people have given a lot of thought to the design of the setup in the owl box, and that the sensor reading is a respectable representation of the internal air temperature.
Also I assume, that either the box is hermetically sealed, or that it is open to the outside atmosphere; hopefully the latter, so that the box is free to exchange air between the inside and the outside whenever thermal gradients or winds cause that to happen.
The thermal radiation from the tar road is certainly going to warm that outside air near the box differently from what a stony road would have.
The direct radiation from the road surface is hopefully excluded from the box by the design of the louvres which I seem to recall those contraptions have (maybe I should get my own owl box). I assume that the box is made of wood and painted with some highly reflecting Titanium oxide or somesuch paint, that rejects electromagnetic radiation but is amenable to heat conduction from contact with the air.
I have given a lot of thought to the question of exactly how would I go about constructing a “weather proof” enclosure for an accurate temperature sensor, that would adapt quickly to the temperature of its immediate surroundings, and not respond to any EM radiation source including the sun. Something tells me that I should make it small; the smaller the better, so I would opt for a semiconductor bandgap temperature sensor, that is part of an integrated circuit that converts the analog temperature to a digital serial data stream that simply repeats, as fast as the A-D can recycle. Of course the update rate would be kept low; maybe once per second so that the chip can power down between readings to minimise self heating.
You can make some bloody low power CMOS ICs these days that wouldn’t self cook by more than the inherent uncertainty of the temperature sensor.
The real trick is to have the thermal environment around the IC such that it facilitates conduction and heat exchange with the air (or ground), while eliminating EM radiation, even direct incident sunlight.
I can’t say I have a solution I’m really in love with yet.
I prefer unadjusted raw temperatures. Not anomalies. Although not as insidious as “models”, still there is the subjective choice of base period. Preferably monthly mean max temps. for the entire period of record. Just my $.o2 worth.
This is how science should work. Check the facts, show your working, allow debate about your assumptions and results. If you are wrong, it’s back to the drawing board.
Frank Skog (11:15:29) :
“Can’t this type of effect be easily measured in a controlled study?”
The GCM modelers should really show off their prowess and understanding of radiative and convective heat transfer by creating a program to model the temperature in a Stevenson screen in various real life installations. Then this microclimate model could be verified by instrumenting a real life site and comparing the results.
Of course, we have to remember this “historical” temperature measuring system was only originally intended for weather data. There is probably a good meterological reason the weather reports only report the temperature to the nearest degree – not tenths or hundredths – not that critical.
durox (09:56:37) :
Lets find someone to go there and paint that tarmac in white! I bet we’ll see at the news that the Ice Age is comming, and that in 10 years that lighthouse will be half in ice.
The alarmism does great tv ratings!! ;]
Reply:
Maybe it is time for all of us to grab a bucket of paint ‘n brush and several rolls of aluminum foil ‘n duct tape then head for the stations near us. Paint all the tarmac/concrete white and duct tape aluminum foil over all the a/c exhausts. One year later analyse the temperature data to see if there is any effect…. /sarc
or maybe we really should do it…HMMmmm
It’s beginning to look like this all needs a do over with open science, no grants. The only possible hope to get to the bottom of all this is to do it all in the open…
Personal computers are now capable enough and free software is easily available on free Linux. Start your Ubuntu’s and let’s have at it.
re: Keith (10:01:51) :
This is from a comment link on another WUWT post. A 6th grader and his did use the raw data to pick out the heat island effect.
The video also shows how they got that data and why they chose it. I expect someone could do the same thing and get data for other areas.
George E. Smith (11:32:47) :
Sensor of choice = LM92
Claimed accuracy 0.33ºC
About the best reasonably priced sensor & you won’t get any improvement in accuracy without spending big bucks.
Interface is I2C 2 wire.
Otherwise needs power & Gnd.
If I remember correctly, best accuracy is @ur momisugly 5V
DaveE.
Anthony,
Feel free to use this Cape Leeuwin graphic made with Hadcrut3 data. I had to infill 9 random months after 1960 before calculating the yearly mean. Used the mean of the monthly series to infill. Overall series trend of about 0.4C. If you crop off the cold first decade the trend is reduced to 0.12C.
http://i48.tinypic.com/2vtcy2f.gif
Talking of Australia, are you aware of Peter Spencer.
I think he is worthy of a little “coverage”.
http://agmates.ning.com/group/peterspencerhungerstrike?commentId=3535428%3AComment%3A37261&xg_source=msg_com_group
Excerpt,
” High up on a 300m wind monitoring tower Farmer Peter Spencer “Saarahnlee” NSW Australia on the 1st December 2009 as a last resort commenced an indefinite hunger strike until the Australian government meets his demands”
REPLY: Actually, no, I think he’s not worthy of any coverage here at all. His issue appears to be land use, and the website you give does a horrid job of explaining what “his demands” are. – Anthony